Estimating 12-week death probability in patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer: the Colon Life nomogram.

Background: Regorafenib and TAS-102 have recently demonstrated statistically significant survival gains in patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Life expectancy ≥12 weeks was an inclusion criterion in registrative trials, and the identification of proper clinical selection tools for the daily use of these drugs in heavily pre-treated patients is needed to improve the cost-benefit ratio. We aimed at building a nomogram able to predict death probability within 12 weeks from the date of assessment of refractory mCRC.

Patients and methods: Four hundred eleven refractory mCRC patients with ECOG performance status (PS) ≤2 receiving regorafenib, TAS-102 or other treatments were used as developing set. Putative prognostic variables were selected using a random forest model and included in a binary logistic model from which the nomogram was developed. The nomogram was externally validated and its performance was evaluated by examining calibration (how close predictions were to the actual outcome) and discriminative ability (Harrell C index) both on developing (internal validation) and validating (external validation) sets.

Results: Four variables were selected and included in the nomogram: PS (P < 0.0001), primary tumor resection (P = 0.027), LDH value (P = 0.0001) and peritoneal involvement (P = 0.081). In the developing set, the nomogram discriminative ability was high (C = 0.778), and was confirmed in the validating set (C = 0.778), where the overall outcome was better as a consequence of the enrichment in patients receiving regorafenib or TAS-102 (46% versus 34%; P < 0.0001).

Conclusions: Our nomogram may be a useful tool to predict the probability of death within 12 weeks in patients with refractory mCRC. Based on four easy-to-collect variables, the 'Colon Life' nomogram and free app for smartphones may improve mCRC patients' selection for later-line therapies and assist researchers for the enrollment in clinical trials in this setting.