Spatial and Temporal Pattern Analyses of Esca Grapevine Disease in Vineyards in France.

To assess the capacity of esca to spread within vineyards of the Bordeaux region, over 8 years of annual records, containing between 1,200 and 2,300 contiguous Cabernet Sauvignon vines from 15 mature vineyards, were used for spatial statistical analyses. A group of nonparametric tests, based on join count statistics and on permutation methods, was developed to characterize the spatial structure of esca-symptomatic vines in terms of spread in any direction or within-row only. Among vineyards, a large range of spatial patterns, from random to strongly structured, associated with various prevalence rates that increased over time were observed. In four vineyards, the complex esca distribution pattern indicated different levels of clustering. By contrast, in other vineyards, only small clusters of two adjacent symptomatic vines were observed, and they were localized along rows, without enlargement over time, except in one vineyard. An analysis of spatial dependence between previously and newly symptomatic vines within k-order neighborhoods (k = 1 to 5), showed, for 5 of the 15 vineyards, that the newly symptomatic vines were located close to previously infected vines, without a favored orientation or neighbor order. All the results together suggested a limited potential for secondary local spread from neighboring symptomatic vines.