Single baseline serum creatinine measurements predict mortality in critically ill patients hospitalized for acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Acute heart failure (AHF) is a leading cause of death in critically ill patients and is often accompanied by significant renal dysfunction. Few data exist on the predictive value of measures of renal dysfunction in large cohorts of patients hospitalized for AHF.

METHODS: Six hundred and eighteen patients hospitalized for AHF (300 male, aged 73.3 ± 10.3 years, 73% New York Heart Association Class 4, mean hospital length of stay 12.9 ± 7.7 days, 97% non-ischaemic AHF) were included in a retrospective single-centre data analysis. Echocardiographic data, serum creatinine/urea levels, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and clinical/laboratory markers were recorded. Mean follow-up time was 2.9 ± 2.1 years. All-cause mortality was recorded, and univariate/multivariate analyses were performed.

RESULTS: Normal renal function defined as eGFR > 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 was noted in only 3% of AHF patients at baseline. A significant correlation of left ventricular ejection fraction with serum creatinine levels and eGFR (all P  < 0.002) was noted. All-cause mortality rates were 12% (90 days) and 40% (at 2 years), respectively. In a multivariate model, increased age, higher New York Heart Association class at admission, higher total cholesterol levels, and lower eGFR independently predicted death. Patients with baseline eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 had an exceptionally high risk of death (odds ratio 2.80, 95% confidence interval 1.52-5.15, P  = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of patients with mostly non-ischaemic AHF, enhanced serum creatinine levels and reduced eGFR independently predict death. It appears that patients with eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 have poorest survival rates. Our data add to mounting data indicating that impaired renal function is an important risk factor for non-survival in patients hospitalized for AHF.