Forecasting and prediction of scorpion sting cases using a SARIMA model in Biskra province, Algeria.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to highlight some epidemiological aspects of scorpion envenomations, to analyse and interpret the recorded data, and to develop a forecasting model for scorpion sting cases in Biskra province which records the highest number of scorpion stings at national level.

METHODS: In addition to the epidemiological profile of scorpion stings that occurred throughout the year 2013, we carried out the Box-Jenkins approach to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the monthly recorded scorpion sting cases in Biskra from 2000 to 2012.

RESULTS: The epidemiological analysis revealed that scorpion stings are observed round the clock, throughout the year with peaks in summer months. The most affected age group ranges between 15 and 49 years old with a male predominance. The more prone human body areas are the upper limbs and lower limbs. The majority of cases (95.9%) were classified as mild envenomings. The time series analysis showed that a SARIMA model offered best fit to scorpion sting surveillance data. The model was used to predict scorpion sting cases for the year 2013, the fitted data agree considerably with the actual data.

CONCLUSIONS: SARIMA models turn out to be useful for monitoring scorpion sting cases. They provide an estimate of the variability to be expected among future scorpion sting cases. This knowledge is helpful to predict whether an unusual situation is developing or not, and could therefore assist decision makers to strengthen the province's prevention and control measures and to initiate rapid response activities.