The slope of the initial temperature drop predicts acute pulmonary vein isolation using the second-generation cryoballoon.

Aims: There is no objective, early indicator of occlusion quality, and efficacy of cryoballoon pulmonary vein isolation. As previous experience suggests that the initial cooling rate correlates with these parameters, we investigated the slope of the initial temperature drop as an objective measure.

Methods and results: A systematic evaluation of 523 cryoapplications in 105 patients using a serial ROC-AUC analysis was performed. We found the slope of a linear regression of the temperature-time function to be a good predictor (PPV 0.9, specificity 0.72, sensitivity 0.71, and ROC-AUC 0.75) of acute isolation. It also correlated with nadir temperatures (P< 0.001, adjusted R2= 0.43), predicted very low nadir temperatures, and varied according to visual occlusion grades (ANOVA P< 0.001).

Conclusions: About 25 s after freeze initiation, the temperature-time slope predicts important key characteristics of a cryoablation, such as nadir temperature. The slope is the only reported predictor to actually precede acute isolation and thus to support decisions about pull-down manoeuvres or aborting a cryoablation early on. It is also predictive of very low nadir temperatures and phrenic nerve palsy and thus may add to patient safety.