Increasing Incidence of Melanoma in the Elderly: An Epidemiological Study in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the age- and sex-adjusted incidence of melanoma in adults 61 years or older in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1970 through 2009.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using Rochester Epidemiology Project resources, 397 patients were identified who were 61 years or older and who received a first lifetime diagnosis of melanoma from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 2009, in Olmsted County. The incidence of melanoma and the overall and disease-specific survival rates were compared by age, sex, year of diagnosis, and stage of disease.

RESULTS: From 1970 through 2009, age- and sex-adjusted incidence increased significantly (P<.001) from 17.0 (95% CI, 8.6-25.4) to 124.6 (95% CI, 108.9-140.3) per 100,000 person-years, with a 4-fold increase in women and a more than 11-fold increase in men. In men, incidence rates increased with age (P<.001) and over time (P<.001). In women, incidence rates increased over time (P<.001) but were constant across all age groups studied (P=.90). The dramatic increase in the incidence of melanoma was observed mainly for stages 0 and I tumors in both men and women (>55-fold increase). Disease-specific survival increased across the decades (P<.001); when year of diagnosis was compared to mortality, hazard ratios were 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.99; P=.010) and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.89-0.98; P=.006) for men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSION: The incidence of melanoma in older men and women increased significantly over the past 4 decades in Olmsted County, with men experiencing higher rates of increase than did women.