Association of worsening arterial stiffness with incident heart failure in asymptomatic patients with cardiovascular risk factors.

We investigated the independent and incremental role of worsening arterial stiffness in new-onset heart failure (HF) in patients with preclinical HF. We retrospectively studied 456 consecutive asymptomatic patients with HF risk factors (hypertension, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation and ischemic heart disease) who underwent paired applanation tonometry examinations (median interval of 2.4 years) during 2006-2011. Brachial ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was measured as a surrogate marker of arterial stiffness. Patients were followed up for admission for new-onset HF over a median duration of 4.9 years after the second examination. HF was observed in 30 patients (7%). The change in baPWV (∆baPWV) was significantly associated with hospitalization for new-onset HF, independent of and incremental to comorbidities, renal dysfunction, left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and baPWV at baseline. Even in patients with an LV ejection fraction of ⩾40%, ∆baPWV was significantly associated with hospitalization for new-onset HF after similar adjustments. When the patients were divided into groups based on this cutoff value of ⩾15% ∆baPWV and the generally accepted external cutoff value of ⩾1750 cm s(-1) for baseline baPWV, the Kaplan-Meier estimates of the time of hospitalization for new-onset HF showed that a higher rate of HF was associated with higher baPWV at baseline and higher ∆baPWV (P=0.00005). In asymptomatic patients with cardiovascular risk factors, the deterioration in arterial stiffness was associated with hospitalization for new-onset HF, independent of and incremental with the clinical LV function and increased stiffness parameters at baseline.