A method to estimate the mean lifetime survival increase of statin therapy.

AIM: To propose a method for estimating the lifetime advantage of statins.

METHODS: Kaplan-Meier survival curves from published 4S and LIPID studies with 5.8- and 6.1-year follow-up were digitized. Gompertz distributions were fit up to the end of the trials, and then extrapolated out to the end of the patients' predicted lifetimes for each study.

RESULTS: The method results in a 9.9 (95% CI: 8.7-11.9) and 2.8 (95% CI: 2.3-3.3) years' increases for the statin groups for 4S and LIPID studies, respectively.

CONCLUSION: Previous analysis of the same data was limited by the trials' relatively short run time. As such, we propose a method for correctly estimating the true effect of statin therapy in terms of total lifetime extension.