Scientific foundations of fish-consumption advice for pregnant women: Epidemiological evidence, benefit-risk modeling, and an integrated approach.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women need fish consumption advice that increases seafood intake and simultaneously reduces methylmercury (MeHg) exposure. Two disciplines, epidemiology and benefit-risk modeling, can support such advice. Some current models suggest that fish consumption during pregnancy has only net beneficial effects. In contrast, many recent epidemiological studies have associated adverse effects on cognitive development with ordinary fish intake and MeHg doses routinely encountered by up to one in six US women of childbearing age. Proposed federal fish-consumption advice is based solely on a benefit-risk model. A more complete assessment integrating both types of evidence is needed.

OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: The goal of this paper is to use a model to rank seafood items by their relative benefits and risks, producing consumer seafood choice recommendations that are also consistent with epidemiological observations. Recent epidemiological studies and benefit-risk models are reviewed, and model results are compared with one another and with epidemiological observations to identify commonalities that support inter-calibration.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Both approaches quantify MeHg doses at which harm slightly exceeds benefit. A model from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) predicts adverse effects at fish intakes containing, on average, more than 16 times the the US Reference Dose (RfD) for MeHg. Epidemiological results indicate that the RfD itself approximates a minimal adverse dose. This conceptual similarity allows FDA's model to be calibrated with the epidemiological results to generate fish intake recommendations that both the model and the epidemiology suggest should have substantially positive public health impacts.