Readiness to Change Predicts Drinking: Findings from 12-Month Follow-Up of Alcohol Use Disorder Outpatients.

AIM: To test whether measures of readiness to change (RTC) re-assessed every 3 months had predictive value for change in alcohol use over 12 months in a sample of adult outpatients with alcohol use disorder (AUD).

METHODS: Of the case, 78 outpatients were followed monthly over one year and averaged 9.0 interviews each (total observations = 704). Alcohol abstinence days and heavy drinking days were assessed monthly using a 30-day timeline follow-back procedure. RTC was assessed using 3 'readiness rulers' (importance, readiness, and confidence to change, measured on a 0-10 visual analog scale). The effect of RTC on alcohol use over time was tested every 3 months using negative binomial generalized estimating equations (GEE), controlling for gender, age, baseline alcohol dependence severity and AUD treatment status (ongoing vs. ceased).

RESULTS: GEE models showed highly significant effects of readiness and confidence to change on respective alcohol outcomes. Effects of importance to change were weaker.

CONCLUSION: As hypothesized, higher RTC scores were associated with improved alcohol use outcomes in this longitudinal study. The strongest effects were for confidence to change. Finding significant predictive validity prospectively is consistent with a theoretical view of RTC as a dynamic construct. Further research might clarify how AUD treatment could actually elicit or increase RTC.