The association of ideal cardiovascular health with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Levels of ideal cardiovascular health (ICH) and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus have not been examined in a multiethnic population. We assessed the total and race/ethnicity-specific incidence of diabetes based on American Heart Association (AHA) ICH components.

METHODS: Incident diabetes was assessed among 5341 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis without prevalent diabetes between 2002 and 2012. ICH components (total cholesterol, BP, dietary intake, tobacco use, physical activity and BMI) were assessed at baseline and participants were categorised as having ideal, intermediate or poor cardiovascular health, as defined by the AHA 2020 impact goals. We developed a scoring system based on the number of ICH components (0-1 'poor', 2-3 'intermediate', and ≥4 'ideal'). HRs were calculated using Cox models.

RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.1 years, we identified 587 cases of incident diabetes. After multivariable adjustment, participants with 2-3 and ≥4 ICH components vs 0-1 components had a 34% lower (HR 0.66; 95% CI 0.54, 0.80) and a 75% lower (HR 0.25; 95% CI 0.18, 0.35) diabetes incidence, respectively. There were significant differences by race/ethnicity: African-American and Hispanic-American participants with ≥4 ICH components had diabetes incidence rates per 1000 person-years of 5.6 (95% CI 3.1, 10.1) and 10.5 (95% CI 6.7, 16.4), respectively, compared with 2.2 (95% CI 1.3, 3.7) among non-Hispanic white Americans.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Meeting an increasing number of AHA 2020 impact goals for dietary intake, physical activity, smoking, BP, cholesterol and BMI was associated with a dose-dependent lower risk of diabetes with significant variation by race/ethnicity.