Dynamic Changes in Renal Function Are Associated With Major Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: The pattern of renal function decline prior to cardiovascular (CV) events in type 2 diabetes is not well known. Our aim was to describe the association between renal function trajectories and the occurrence of a CV event.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We considered patients with type 2 diabetes from the SURDIAGENE (Survie, Diabete de type 2 et Genetique) study (discovery cohort) and the DIABHYCAR (Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes, Hypertension, Microalbuminuria or Proteinuria, Cardiovascular Events, and Ramipril) study (replication cohort). Global patterns of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI]) and serum creatinine (SCr) prior to a major CV event (MACE) or last update were determined using a linear mixed-effects model and annual individual slopes computed by simple linear regression.

RESULTS: In the 1,040 participants of the discovery cohort, establishment of global patterns including 22,227 SCr over 6.3 years of follow-up showed an annual eGFR decline and an annual SCr increase that were significantly greater in patients with MACE compared with patients without (-3.0 and -1.7 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year and +10.7 and +4.0 μmol/L/year, respectively; P < 0.0001 for both). Median annual individual slopes were also significantly steeper in patients with MACE, and adjusted risk of MACE was 4.11 times higher (3.09-5.45) in patients with rapid decline in eGFR (change less than -5 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year). Consideration of renal function trajectories provided significant additive information helping to explain the occurrence of MACE for both SCr and eGFR (PIDI < 0.0001 and P = 0.0005, respectively). These results were confirmed in the replication cohort.

CONCLUSIONS: Renal function decline was associated with a higher risk of MACE. The pattern of renal function decline, beyond baseline kidney function, is an independent factor of CV risk.