Leucocytosis as a specific risk predictor after abdominal aortic aneurysm open repair.

INTRODUCTION: Prediction of early death in abdominal aortic aneurysm - open repair is widely described. There is no superiority of any risk stratification tool. Some of the risk calculators are quite accurate, but very complicated (e.g. P-POSSUM, V-POSSUM). Some are simpler but never used in vascular surgery (e.g. ECOG). Therefore, only leucocytosis itself appears to be an independent and highly specific factor in prediction of early death prior to surgery. This might be used as an early warning factor raising surgeons' attention, especially in centers not using any risk calculators on a regular basis. The aim of this study was to comparison of commonly used early death prediction calculators for abdominal aortic aneurysm - open repair. We took into account the following scales: Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), V-POSSUM, Eagle score, American Society of Anesthesia Score, ECOG, Goldman/Detsky. However, we also have been looking for independent risk factors of early postoperative death.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 79 patients who underwent elective open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm over 3 years (2011-2013 Szczecin, Poland). We have excluded patients treated due to ruptured aneurysms and with the use of a stentgraft. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to asses all prediction abilities.

RESULTS: We noted 6 deaths (7.59%). Receiver operating curve analysis confirms good prediction force for V-POSSUM (p = 0.0001, criterion over 1.9%) and GAS (p = 0.0109, criterion over 73 pt.). Areas under curve are respectively 0.806 and 0.743. However, leucocytosis itself over 10 T/L was the most specific (over 88%) risk factor in early death prediction (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION: V-POSSUM and GAS are suitable risk calculators for abdominal aortic aneurysm - open repair. Leucocytosis discovered prior to the surgery is a highly specific early death predictor.