Dynamic Change of Total Bilirubin after Portal Vein Embolization is Predictive of Major Complications and Posthepatectomy Mortality in Patients with Hilar Cholangiocarcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to evaluate the role of dynamic change in total bilirubin after portal vein embolization (PVE) in predicting major complications and 30-day mortality in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA).

METHODS: Retrospective analysis of prospectively maintained data of 64 HCCA patients who underwent PVE before hepatectomy in our institution was used. Total bilirubin and other parameters were measured daily in peri-PVE period. The difference between them and the baseline value from days 0-5 to day -1 (∆D1) and days 5-14 to day -1 (∆D2) were calculated. The relationship between ∆D1 and ∆D2 of total bilirubin and major complications as well as 30-day mortality was analyzed.

RESULTS: Out of 64 patients, 10 developed major complications (15.6 %) and 6 patients (9.3 %) had died within 30 days after surgery. The ∆D2 of total bilirubin after PVE was most significantly associated with major complications (P < 0.001) and 30-day mortality (P = 0.002). In addition, it was found to be an independent predictor of major complications after PVE (odds ratio (OR) = 1.050; 95 % CI 1.017-1.084). ASA >3 (OR = 12.048; 95 % CI 1.019-143.321), ∆D2 of total bilirubin (OR = 1.058; 95 % CI 1.007-1.112), and ∆D2 of prealbumin (OR = 0.975; 95 % CI 0.952-0.999) were associated with higher risk of 30-day mortality after PVE. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that ∆D2 of total bilirubin were better predictors than ∆D1 for major complications (AUC (∆D2) 0.817; P = 0.002 vs. AUC (∆D1) 0.769; P = 0.007) and 30-day mortality (ACU(∆D2) 0.868; P = 0.003 vs. AUC(∆D1) 0.721;P = 0.076).

CONCLUSION: Patients with increased total bilirubin in 5-14 days after PVE may indicate a higher risk of major complications and 30-day mortality if the major hepatectomy were performed.