Glass half full: Survival analysis of new rural doctor retention in Western Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the time trends in retention of new rural doctors in Western Australia (WA) and identify factors associated with improved retention.

DESIGN: Retrospective inception cohort study of the 1154 doctors first commencing rural practice in WA in 2004-2013, who provided 1222 tours of service consisting of up to eight attachments at different rural practice settings.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Failure of doctor retention as evidenced by an absence from the rural medical workforce of greater than 1 year and analysed using actuarial survival methods and Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS: Comparing 2009-2013 with 2004-2008, there was an improvement of 10 percentage points in retention of new rural doctors at 2 years (58% versus 48% ) and 7 percentage points at 5 years (38% versus 31%). The retention failure rate ratio was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.58-0.83). The improvement at 5 years was largely attributable to gains in retention of those who began as GP registrars (37% versus 14%). Failure of doctor retention was lower in those who possessed procedural skills (RR 0.61, 95% CI, 0.47-0.78) and lower in international medical graduates than in those trained in Australia (RR 0.75, 95% CI, 0.59-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS: New rural GP retention in WA has improved substantially, an observation at least consistent with government initiatives delivering a positive return. However, it remains the case that the majority of new doctors have left rural practice within 5 years of commencing their tour of service.