Remote influence of Atlantic multidecadal variability on Siberian warm season precipitation.

The time series of 20th century Siberian warm season (May to October) precipitation (SWP) shows variations over decadal timescales, including a wetting trend since the 1970s. Here, it is shown that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) can be implicated as a remote driver of the decadal-scale variations in SWP. Observational analysis identifies a significant in-phase relationship between the AMV and SWP, and the SWP decadal variability can be largely explained by the AMV. The physical mechanism for this relationship is investigated using both observations and numerical simulations. The results suggest that North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) warming associated with the positive AMV phase can excite an eastward propagating wave train response across the entire Eurasian continent, which includes an east-west dipole structure over Siberia. The dipole then leads to anomalous southerly winds bringing moisture northward to Siberia; the precipitation increases correspondingly. The mechanism is further supported by linear barotropic modeling and Rossby wave ray tracing analysis.