Costs and benefits of bundled community-based screening for carotid artery stenosis, peripheral artery disease, and abdominal aortic aneurysm.

PURPOSE: Perform an initial formal assessment of the costs and benefits of bundled cardiovascular screening. Primarily, determine the relative importance of data uncertainties to the integrity ofmodeled outcomes associated with bundled screening for carotid artery stenosis (CAS), peripheral artery disease (PAD), and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA); secondarily, establish parameters around potential costs and outcomes benefits of this screening bundle.

DESIGN: A decision-analysis framework composed of four decision tree submodels with transition probabilities specific to four age- and gender-specific subgroups. Model transition probabilities for each of the four submodels are based on the prevalence of all possible combinations of the presence or absence of moderate CAS, significant CAS, PAD, and AAA, and the likelihood of appropriate or inappropriate medical follow-up.

METHODOLOGY: Evaluates a hypothetical self-funded employer with 10,000 beneficiaries and who is considering whether to provide bundled cardiovascular health screenings. Screenings would be performed in addition to any other medical screenings commonly performed by physicians to assess cardiovascular risk. Determine costs and catastrophic events (death, myocardial infarction, stroke, other cardiovascular-related events, amputation events) for these self-funded hypothetical beneficiaries aged ≥ 50 years and < 65 years.

RESULTS: The model predicts approximately $54 million in health care costs over 10 years for the control cohort and $51 million for the screening cohort, representing a 5.2% reduction in 10-year health care spending due to screening.

CONCLUSION: This initial analysis predicts robust cost and health benefits associated with the decision to provide bundled cardiovascular health screening to a self-funded employer's beneficiaries aged ≥ 50 years and < 65 years. Further analyses are necessary to better quantify the magnitude of the cost and health benefits.