Comparison of tumor markers for predicting outcomes after resection of nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors.

BACKGROUND: This study compares the predictability of 5 tumor markers for distant metastasis and mortality in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs).

METHODS: A total of 128 patients who underwent pancreatectomy for nonfunctioning PNETs between 1998 and 2011 were evaluated. Tumor specimens were stained via immunochemistry for cytoplasmic and nuclear survivin, cytokeratin 19 (CK19), c-KIT, and Ki67. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses and receiver operating characteristics curve were used to evaluate the predictive value of these markers.

RESULTS: A total of 116 tumors (91%) were positive for cytoplasmic survivin, 95 (74%) for nuclear survivin, 85 (66.4%) for CK19, 3 for c-KIT, and 41 (32%) for Ki67 >3%. Twelve (9%) tumors expressed none of the markers. Survivin, CK19, and c-KIT had no substantial effect on distant metastasis or mortality. Age >55 years, grade 3 histology, distant metastasis, and Ki67 >3% were associated with mortality (P < .05). A cut-off of Ki67 >3% was the best predictor (83%) of mortality with an area under the curve of 0.85. Ki67 >3% also predicted occurrence of distant metastases with odds ratio of 9.22 and 95% confidence interval of 1.55-54.55 (P < .015).

CONCLUSION: Of the 5 markers studied, only Ki67 >3% was greatly associated with distant metastasis and death. Survivin, CK19, and c-KIT had no prognostic value in nonfunctioning PNETs.