Revising the criteria for the predictors of variceal haemorrhage outcome.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: There are many criteria and definitions used to evaluate the failure to control and prevent variceal bleeding. Baveno criteria were developed in Baveno consensus workshops I-III. Some of these criteria are fairly difficult to apply and do not adequately reflect common situations that are observed in clinical practice. Therefore, new criteria were developed at the Baveno-IV workshop. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the validity of Baveno II-IV criteria in the prediction of bleeding recurrence among patients with liver cirrhosis who presented with bleeding oesophageal varices.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifty patients with liver cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding were divided into two groups according to treatment response. Group I consisted of 44 patients for whom treatment to control bleeding was successful, and Group II included 6 patients for whom treatment failed. Baveno criteria were used in the evaluation of treatment outcome in these patients.

RESULTS: The overall accuracy of Baveno II and III criteria was 87.3% within the first 6h and 76.5% after 6h, with a mean accuracy 81.9%. The overall accuracy of Baveno IV criteria in this study was 83%. The criterion of death was also very specific (100%), with 100% PPV, but its sensitivity was very low (16.7%).

CONCLUSION: Baveno IV criteria are less complicated, much easier to apply and have nearly the same accuracy as Baveno II/III criteria. However, there are some criteria that need to be modified, such as the adjusted blood requirement index (ABR1), among others.