[The dose-response relationship of chrysotile asbestos exposure and lung cancer in cohort study].

OBJECTIVE: To clarify the dose-response relationship between asbestos dust exposure and lung cancer incidence in chrysotile asbestos miners by fixed cohort study and to investigate the incidence rates of lung cancer in exposure to different concentrations of asbestos dust.

METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 1932 asbestos miners who registered from January 1, 1981 to December 31, 1988, had worked for at least 1 year, and had no obvious cardiopulmonary diseases; the cohort study began in July 2009 and covered a time span of 29 years (1981 - 2009). The personal information, occupational history, disease history, and health data of these miners were recorded, and the monitoring data on dust concentrations in the mine over the years were collected. The dose-response relationship between asbestos dust concentration and lung cancer incidence was established by the method of life table; a regression equation was fitted to predict the excess incidence rates of lung cancer under the conditions of different working years and dust concentrations.

RESULTS: A significant dose-response relationship was observed between cumulative exposure (Ce) and cumulative probability (Px) of lung cancer incidence, and the smokers hada higher Px than nonsmokers. When Ce was less than 2000 mg/m(3)·each year, Px reached 6.58/10000; when Ce was not less than 2000 mg/m(3)·and less than 3000 mg/m(3)·each year, Px reached 91.72/10000; when Ce was more than 5000 mg/m(3)·each year, Px was as high as 141.02/10000. The three models were fitted to obtain the optimal regression equation: Px = -0.0004Ce(2) + 0.0052Ce - 0.0011 (r(2) = 0.9387). In the workshop of asbestos mine in this study, the average dust concentration was 85 times higher than the limit in 2009, so the excess incidence rate of lung cancer was 112.598/10000 if the miners worked under this condition for 40 years, according to the equation.

CONCLUSION: There is a significant dose-response relationship between cumulative asbestos exposure and lung cancer incidence in chrysotile asbestos miners. The risk for lung cancer rises as asbestos exposure increases.