Predictive factors of rebleeding and mortality following endoscopic hemostasis in bleeding peptic ulcers.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To identify predictive factors of rebleeding and mortality after endoscopic therapy in patients with high risk peptic ulcers.

METHODOLOGY: Patients hospitalized due to bleeding from high-risk peptic ulcers (Forrest classes Ia, Ib, IIa and IIb) during a five-year study, received endoscopic hemostatic therapy (diluted epinephrine injection, clipping or both) in addition to proton pump inhibitors. We looked for clinical, endoscopic and laboratory parameters that had influenced rebleeding and mortality in these patients.

RESULTS: Among all patients (804) with peptic ulcer bleeding, 251 high-risk ulcer pateints received endoscopic hemostasis treatment. Thirty-four of them (13.5%) experienced in-hospital rebleeding. Majority of these achieved permanent hemostasis after second endoscopic treatment, while 14 (5.6%) needed surgery. Eighteen patients died (7.2%). Among parameters studied, severe anaemia, systolic and diastolic hypotension, shock presence, low Rockall score, ulcer size and time to hemostasis were factors which predicted rebleeding. Mortality predictive factors were: severe anaemia, hypotension, shock presence, lower Rockall and physical status scores, ulcer size and Forrest class. Conclusions: Early assesment of clinical and endoscopic predictive factors of rebleeding and mortality in patients with high-risk peptic ulcer bleeding could provide optimal therapeutical measures and follow-up. It could further reduce rebleeding and mortality rates in these patients.-16 months vs. 59.5 months, IQR=37.5-68.5 months, p<0.001) and the rate of death was lower (16.7% [2/12] vs. 83.3% [5/6], p=0.006). Logistic regression showed that a shorter duration of endoscopic interval increased the rate of resectability of gastric cancer (p<0.001) and a higher rate of unresectable gastric cancer and longer duration of endoscopic interval increased death (p=0.029 and p=0.004, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS: After treatment of esophageal cancer, endoscopic examination at 12-month intervals is important to lower the rate of death due to metachronous gastric cancer.