[Estimate of the 10-year risk of osteoporotic fractures in the Spanish population].

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The QFRACTURE(®) tool allows to estimate the risk of osteoporotic fractures in 10 years. We have estimated it, both for major and hip fracture, from the data obtained from the National Health Questionnaire. We thus estimated the risk of fragility fractures in the next 10 years in the Spanish population of both genders and calculated its burden.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We have used the QFRACTURE(®) tool which estimates the risk of any fracture and hip fracture in the next 10 years.

RESULTS: A total of 552.879 women and 161.922 men will suffer a fragility fracture in the next 10 years in Spain. Most of the fractures will happen in people aged 70 years old and more. In 10 years there will be 263.351 hip fractures in women and 84.213 in men. More than half of the hip fractures in women will happen to those aged more than 77 years old. The burden of osteoporotic fractures in Spain could arise to 4.778 millions of euros in the next 10 years with a cut-off of 3% for hip fracture accepting as reference the cost of generic alendronate.

CONCLUSIONS: We have a first approach to the number of osteoporotic fractures in the next 10 years and its burden. The knowledge of this figures may be useful in order to program strategies to reduce the number of osteoporotic fractures in the future.