A clinical nomogram to predict the successful shock wave lithotripsy of renal and ureteral calculi.

PURPOSE: Although shock wave lithotripsy is dependent on patient and stone related factors, there are few reliable algorithms predictive of its success. In this study we develop a comprehensive nomogram to predict renal and ureteral stone shock wave lithotripsy outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: During a 5-year period data from patients treated at our lithotripsy unit were reviewed. Analysis was restricted to patients with a solitary renal or ureteral calculus 20 mm or less. Demographic, stone, patient, treatment and 3-month followup data were collected from a prospective database. All patients were treated using the Philips Lithotron® lithotripter.

RESULTS: A total of 422 patients (69.7% male) were analyzed. Mean stone size was 52.3±39.3 mm2 for ureteral stones and 78.9±77.3 mm2 for renal stones, with 95 (43.6%) of the renal stones located in the lower pole. The single treatment success rates for ureteral and renal stones were 60.3% and 70.2%, respectively. On univariate analysis predictors of shock wave lithotripsy success, regardless of stone location, were age (p=0.01), body mass index (p=0.01), stone size (p<0.01), mean stone density (p<0.01) and skin to stone distance (p<0.01). By multivariate logistic regression for renal calculi, age, stone area and skin to stone distance were significant predictors with an AUC of 0.75. For ureteral calculi predictive factors included body mass index and stone size (AUC 0.70).

CONCLUSIONS: Patient and stone parameters have been identified to create a nomogram that predicts shock wave lithotripsy outcomes using the Lithotron lithotripter, which can facilitate optimal treatment based decisions and provide patients with more accurate single treatment success rates for shock wave lithotripsy tailored to patient specific situations.