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Serum lactate as a predictor of mortality in emergency department patients with infection

Nathan I Shapiro, Michael D Howell, Daniel Talmor, Larry A Nathanson, Alan Lisbon, Richard E Wolfe, J Woodrow Weiss
Annals of Emergency Medicine 2005, 45 (5): 524-8

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Little is known about risk-stratification biomarkers in emergency department (ED) patients with suspected infection, and lactate is a biologically plausible candidate. We determine whether a serum venous lactate is associated with an increased risk of death in ED patients with infection.

METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study in an urban, academic medical center with 50,000 annual ED visits. A total of 1,278 consecutive patient visits met enrollment criteria between July 24, 2003, and March 24, 2004, and all patients were enrolled. Inclusion criteria were age 18 years or older, serum lactate level obtained, and admission to the hospital with an infection-related diagnosis. The main outcome measure was all-cause 28-day inhospital mortality and death within 3 days of presentation.

RESULTS: Among 1,278 patient visits, there were 105 (8.2%) deaths during hospitalization, with 55 (4.3%) of 1,278 deaths occurring in the first 3 days. Mortality rates increased as lactate increased: 43 (4.9%) of 877 of patients with a lactate level between 0 and 2.5 mmol/L died, 24 (9.0%) of 267 patients with a lactate level between 2.5 and 4.0 mmol/L died, and 38 (28.4%) of 134 patients with a lactate level greater than or equal to 4.0 mmol/L died. Lactate level greater than or equal to 4.0 mmol/L was 36% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27% to 45%) sensitive and 92% (95% CI 90% to 93%) specific for any death; it was 55% (95% CI 41% to 68%) sensitive and 91% (95% CI 90% to 93%) specific for death within 3 days.

CONCLUSION: In this cohort of ED patients with signs and symptoms suggestive of infection, our results support serum venous lactate level as a promising risk-stratification tool. Multicenter validation, as well as comparison of the lactate level with clinical predictors, needs to be done before widespread implementation.


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