Predicting the liver histology in chronic hepatitis C: how good is the clinician?

OBJECTIVE: Liver biopsy is believed to be necessary before antiviral treatment in hepatitis C. Studies have found symptoms and biochemistry poorly predictive of grade and stage. In practice, a combination of factors is used to anticipate histology. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of global clinical assessment to predict histology in hepatitis C.

METHODS: Fifty-four consecutive patients referred to a university center for consideration of antiviral therapy were enrolled. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded as was a prediction of the inflammatory grade (0-3) and fibrotic stage (0-3), with fibrotic stage 3 referring to cirrhosis. Liver biopsies were read by a blinded pathologist. The predictive value of the clinical assessment and individual parameters was assessed.

RESULTS: All predictions were < or = 1 point off the actual grade and stage. Thirty-six (66.7%) patients' grades and 41 (75.9%) patients' stages were exactly predicted. All four cirrhotic patients (sensitivity 100%, specificity 94%) and one case of hemochromatosis were correctly predicted. Spider nevi, organomegaly, white blood cell count < or = 4 x 10(9)/L, ALT > 120 U/L, bilirubin > 20 micromol/L, albumin < or = 35 g/L, and ferritin > 200 microg/L predicted grade > or =2. Stage > or =2 was associated with age > 40 yr, previous decompensation, spider nevi, organomegaly, white blood cell count < or = 4 x 10(9)/L, albumin < or = 35 g/L, platelets < or = 150 x 10(9)/L, and international normalized ratio > 1.2. Grade correlated with stage (Spearman coefficient = 0.54, p < 0.001). By multivariate analysis, ferritin plus spider nevi or hypoalbuminemia was independently predictive of inflammation. Spider nevi and thrombocytopenia, with either splenomegaly or hypoalbuminemia, were useful three-variable models for predicting fibrosis. The corresponding scoring systems produced useful likelihood ratios.

CONCLUSIONS: Global clinical assessment mirroring clinical practice in a tertiary liver transplant center is moderately accurate in predicting grade and stage in hepatitis C. Liver biopsy is the current gold standard; however, the amount of new information gleaned is less than was perceived. The need for routine biopsy before antiviral treatment in hepatitis C should be reevaluated in a multicenter study.