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'Dynamic linear model'

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28935025/burden-of-salmonellosis-campylobacteriosis-and-listeriosis-a-time-series-analysis-belgium-2012-to-2020
#1
Charline Maertens de Noordhout, Brecht Devleesschauwer, Juanita A Haagsma, Arie H Havelaar, Sophie Bertrand, Olivier Vandenberg, Sophie Quoilin, Patrick T Brandt, Niko Speybroeck
Salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis are food-borne diseases. We estimated and forecasted the number of cases of these three diseases in Belgium from 2012 to 2020, and calculated the corresponding number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The salmonellosis time series was fitted with a Bai and Perron two-breakpoint model, while a dynamic linear model was used for campylobacteriosis and a Poisson autoregressive model for listeriosis. The average monthly number of cases of salmonellosis was 264 (standard deviation (SD): 86) in 2012 and predicted to be 212 (SD: 87) in 2020; campylobacteriosis case numbers were 633 (SD: 81) and 1,081 (SD: 311); listeriosis case numbers were 5 (SD: 2) in 2012 and 6 (SD: 3) in 2014...
September 21, 2017: Euro Surveillance: Bulletin Européen sur les Maladies Transmissibles, European Communicable Disease Bulletin
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28746076/safety-and-efficacy-of-neublastin-in-painful-lumbosacral-radiculopathy-a-randomized-double-blinded-placebo-controlled-phase-2-trial-using-bayesian-adaptive-design-the-sprint-trial
#2
Miroslav Backonja, Leslie Williams, Xiaopeng Miao, Nathaniel Katz, Crystal Chen
Neublastin (BG00010) is a first-in-class, glial cell-derived neurotrophic factor shown in preclinical studies and an early clinical trial to have potential for the treatment of neuropathic pain. SPRINT was a phase 2, multicenter, double-blinded, placebo-controlled study to evaluate efficacy/safety of 5 neublastin doses (50, 150, 400, 800, and 1200 μg/kg) administered as an intravenous injection 3 times/week for 1 week in patients with chronic painful lumbosacral radiculopathy, utilizing Bayesian response-adaptive study design...
June 21, 2017: Pain
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28735585/analyses-of-body-weight-patterns-in-growing-pigs-a-new-view-on-body-weight-in-pigs-for-frequent-monitoring
#3
A H Stygar, K A Dolecheck, A R Kristensen
Frequent BW monitoring of growing pigs can be useful for identifying production (e.g. feeding), health and welfare problems. However, in order to construct a tool which will properly recognize abnormalities in pigs' growth a precise description of the growth process should be used. In this study we proposed a new model of pig growth accounting for daily fluctuations in BW. Body weight measurements of 1710 pigs (865 gilts and 843 barrows) originating from five consecutive batches from a Danish commercial farm were collected...
July 24, 2017: Animal: An International Journal of Animal Bioscience
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28456406/multivariate-dynamic-linear-models-for-estimating-the-effect-of-experimental-interventions-in-an-evolutionary-operations-setup-in-dairy-herds
#4
Anna Helena Stygar, Mogens Agerbo Krogh, Troels Kristensen, Søren Østergaard, Anders Ringgaard Kristensen
Evolutionary operations is a method to exploit the association of often small changes in process variables, planned during systematic experimentation and occurring during the normal production flow, to production characteristics to find a way to alter the production process to be more efficient. The objective of this study was to construct a tool to assess the intervention effect on milk production in an evolutionary operations setup. The method used for this purpose was a dynamic linear model (DLM) with Kalman filtering...
July 2017: Journal of Dairy Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28217765/personalized-medicine-enrichment-design-for-dha-supplementation-clinical-trial
#5
Yang Lei, Matthew S Mayo, Susan E Carlson, Byron J Gajewski
Personalized medicine aims to match patient subpopulation to the most beneficial treatment. The purpose of this study is to design a prospective clinical trial in which we hope to achieve the highest level of confirmation in identifying and making treatment recommendations for subgroups, when the risk levels in the control arm can be ordered. This study was motivated by our goal to identify subgroups in a DHA (docosahexaenoic acid) supplementation trial to reduce preterm birth (gestational age<37 weeks) rate...
March 2017: Contemporary Clinical Trials Communications
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092768/mercury-levels-in-herring-gulls-and-fish-42-years-of-spatio-temporal-trends-in-the-great-lakes
#6
E Agnes Blukacz-Richards, Ariola Visha, Matthew L Graham, Daryl L McGoldrick, Shane R de Solla, David J Moore, George B Arhonditsis
Total mercury levels in aquatic birds and fish communities have been monitored across the Canadian Great Lakes by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the past 42 years (1974-2015). These data (22 sites) were used to examine spatio-temporal variability of mercury levels in herring gull (Larus argentatus) eggs, lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), walleye (Sander vitreus), and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). Trends were quantified with dynamic linear models, which provided time-variant rates of change of mercury concentrations...
April 2017: Chemosphere
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27855780/decoding-gripping-force-based-on-local-field-potentials-recorded-from-subthalamic-nucleus-in-humans
#7
Huiling Tan, Alek Pogosyan, Keyoumars Ashkan, Alexander L Green, Tipu Aziz, Thomas Foltynie, Patricia Limousin, Ludvic Zrinzo, Marwan Hariz, Peter Brown
The basal ganglia are known to be involved in the planning, execution and control of gripping force and movement vigour. Here we aim to define the nature of the basal ganglia control signal for force and to decode gripping force based on local field potential (LFP) activities recorded from the subthalamic nucleus (STN) in patients with deep brain stimulation (DBS) electrodes. We found that STN LFP activities in the gamma (55-90 Hz) and beta (13-30m Hz) bands were most informative about gripping force, and that a first order dynamic linear model with these STN LFP features as inputs can be used to decode the temporal profile of gripping force...
November 18, 2016: ELife
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27676387/using-bayesian-hierarchical-models-to-better-understand-nitrate-sources-and-sinks-in-agricultural-watersheds
#8
Yongqiu Xia, Donald E Weller, Meghan N Williams, Thomas E Jordan, Xiaoyuan Yan
Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams...
November 15, 2016: Water Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27522431/use-of-inline-measures-of-l-lactate-dehydrogenase-for-classification-of-posttreatment-mammary-staphylococcus-aureus-infection-status-in-dairy-cows
#9
C Hildebrandt Jørgensen, A R Kristensen, S Østergaard, T W Bennedsgaard
An automated method for determining whether dairy cows with subclinical mammary infections recover after antibiotic treatment would be a useful tool in dairy production. For that purpose, inline l-lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) measurements was modeled using a dynamic linear model; the variance parameters were estimated using the expectation-maximization algorithm. The method used to classify cows as infected or uninfected was based on a multiprocess Kalman filter. Two learning data sets were created: infected and uninfected...
October 2016: Journal of Dairy Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27320667/bayesian-integration-of-sensor-information-and-a-multivariate-dynamic-linear-model-for-prediction-of-dairy-cow-mastitis
#10
Dan B Jensen, Henk Hogeveen, Albert De Vries
Rapid detection of dairy cow mastitis is important so corrective action can be taken as soon as possible. Automatically collected sensor data used to monitor the performance and the health state of the cow could be useful for rapid detection of mastitis while reducing the labor needs for monitoring. The state of the art in combining sensor data to predict clinical mastitis still does not perform well enough to be applied in practice. Our objective was to combine a multivariate dynamic linear model (DLM) with a naïve Bayesian classifier (NBC) in a novel method using sensor and nonsensor data to detect clinical cases of mastitis...
September 2016: Journal of Dairy Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27065286/monitoring-growth-in-finishers-by-weighing-selected-groups-of-pigs-a-dynamic-approach
#11
A H Stygar, A R Kristensen
Application of BW monitoring methods for the whole batch of pigs is not common in commercial herds. Instead, farm managers may regularly weigh a chosen subset of pigs (observed group) and use the obtained information for monitoring, forecasting, and decision support. The objective of this study was to construct a model for growth monitoring and forecasting in pig fattening herds and use the developed model framework to quantify the value of information on BW. The dynamic process of pig growing was described by means of a dynamic linear model (DLM) with Kalman filtering...
March 2016: Journal of Animal Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26578021/lung-cancer-mortality-trends-in-chile-and-six-year-projections-using-bayesian-dynamic-linear-models
#12
Francisco Torres-Avilés, Tomás Moraga, Loreto Núñez, Gloria Icaza
The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19...
September 2015: Cadernos de Saúde Pública
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26423728/development-of-a-bayesian-response-adaptive-trial-design-for-the-dexamethasone-for-excessive-menstruation-study
#13
Christian Holm Hansen, Pamela Warner, Richard A Parker, Brian R Walker, Hilary Od Critchley, Christopher J Weir
It is often unclear what specific adaptive trial design features lead to an efficient design which is also feasible to implement. This article describes the preparatory simulation study for a Bayesian response-adaptive dose-finding trial design. Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation aims to assess the efficacy of Dexamethasone in reducing excessive menstrual bleeding and to determine the best dose for further study. To maximise learning about the dose response, patients receive placebo or an active dose with randomisation probabilities adapting based on evidence from patients already recruited...
September 30, 2015: Statistical Methods in Medical Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26392827/a-microfluidic-model-to-study-fluid-dynamics-of-mucus-plug-rupture-in-small-lung-airways
#14
Yingying Hu, Shiyao Bian, John Grotberg, Marcel Filoche, Joshua White, Shuichi Takayama, James B Grotberg
Fluid dynamics of mucus plug rupture is important to understand mucus clearance in lung airways and potential effects of mucus plug rupture on epithelial cells at lung airway walls. We established a microfluidic model to study mucus plug rupture in a collapsed airway of the 12th generation. Mucus plugs were simulated using Carbopol 940 (C940) gels at concentrations of 0.15%, 0.2%, 0.25%, and 0.3%, which have non-Newtonian properties close to healthy and diseased lung mucus. The airway was modeled with a polydimethylsiloxane microfluidic channel...
July 2015: Biomicrofluidics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26389140/effects-of-gpi-anchored-tnap-on-the-dynamic-structure-of-model-membranes
#15
A F Garcia, A M S Simão, M Bolean, M F Hoylaerts, J L Millán, P Ciancaglini, A J Costa-Filho
Tissue-nonspecific alkaline phosphatase (TNAP) plays a crucial role during skeletal mineralization, and TNAP deficiency leads to the soft bone disease hypophosphatasia. TNAP is anchored to the external surface of the plasma membranes by means of a GPI (glycosylphosphatidylinositol) anchor. Membrane-anchored and solubilized TNAP displays different kinetic properties against physiological substrates, indicating that membrane anchoring influences the enzyme function. Here, we used Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) measurements along with spin labeled phospholipids to probe the possible dynamic changes prompted by the interaction of GPI-anchored TNAP with model membranes...
October 21, 2015: Physical Chemistry Chemical Physics: PCCP
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26386347/temporal-expectations-and-neural-amplitude-fluctuations-in-auditory-cortex-interactively-influence-perception
#16
Björn Herrmann, Molly J Henry, Saskia Haegens, Jonas Obleser
Alignment of neural oscillations with temporally regular input allows listeners to generate temporal expectations. However, it remains unclear how behavior is governed in the context of temporal variability: What role do temporal expectations play, and how do they interact with the strength of neural oscillatory activity? Here, human participants detected near-threshold targets in temporally variable acoustic sequences. Temporal expectation strength was estimated using an oscillator model and pre-target neural amplitudes in auditory cortex were extracted from magnetoencephalography signals...
January 1, 2016: NeuroImage
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26385258/rebound-spiking-in-layer-ii-medial-entorhinal-cortex-stellate-cells-possible-mechanism-of-grid-cell-function
#17
Christopher F Shay, Michele Ferrante, G William Chapman, Michael E Hasselmo
Rebound spiking properties of medial entorhinal cortex (mEC) stellate cells induced by inhibition may underlie their functional properties in awake behaving rats, including the temporal phase separation of distinct grid cells and differences in grid cell firing properties. We investigated rebound spiking properties using whole cell patch recording in entorhinal slices, holding cells near spiking threshold and delivering sinusoidal inputs, superimposed with realistic inhibitory synaptic inputs to test the capacity of cells to selectively respond to specific phases of inhibitory input...
March 2016: Neurobiology of Learning and Memory
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26384617/sexual-dysfunction-in-multiple-sclerosis-a-6-year-follow-up-study
#18
Kisic-Tepavcevic Darija, Pekmezovic Tatjana, Trajkovic Goran, Stojsavljevic Nebojsa, Dujmovic Irena, Mesaros Sarlota, Drulovic Jelena
PURPOSE: Sexual dysfunction (SD) is a common but often overlooked and undertreated symptom in multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of our longitudinal study was to explore the changes in the level of sexual functioning in MS cohort after a period of 3 and 6 years of follow-up, as well as to investigate the predictors of changes in SD during the period of observation. METHODS: The study population comprise a cohort of 93 patients with MS (McDonald's criteria, 2001) who were assessed at three time points during the study (baseline, and at the 3- and 6-year follow-up)...
November 15, 2015: Journal of the Neurological Sciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26384324/inferring-latent-states-and-refining-force-estimates-via-hierarchical-dirichlet-process-modeling-in-single-particle-tracking-experiments
#19
Christopher P Calderon, Kerry Bloom
Understanding the basis for intracellular motion is critical as the field moves toward a deeper understanding of the relation between Brownian forces, molecular crowding, and anisotropic (or isotropic) energetic forcing. Effective forces and other parameters used to summarize molecular motion change over time in live cells due to latent state changes, e.g., changes induced by dynamic micro-environments, photobleaching, and other heterogeneity inherent in biological processes. This study discusses limitations in currently popular analysis methods (e...
2015: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26382492/integrable-pair-transition-coupled-nonlinear-schr%C3%A3-dinger-equations
#20
Liming Ling, Li-Chen Zhao
We study integrable coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equations with pair particle transition between components. Based on exact solutions of the coupled model with attractive or repulsive interaction, we predict that some new dynamics of nonlinear excitations can exist, such as the striking transition dynamics of breathers, new excitation patterns for rogue waves, topological kink excitations, and other new stable excitation structures. In particular, we find that nonlinear wave solutions of this coupled system can be written as a linear superposition of solutions for the simplest scalar nonlinear Schrödinger equation...
August 2015: Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
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