Thomas Mortier, Jakub Truszkowski, Marigold Norman, Markus Boner, Bogdan Buliga, Caspar Chater, Henry Jennings, Jade Saunders, Rosie Sibley, Alexandre Antonelli, Willem Waegeman, Victor Deklerck
Scientific testing including stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) and trace element analysis (TEA) is critical for establishing plant origin, tackling deforestation and enforcing economic sanctions. Yet methods combining SIRA and TEA into robust models for origin verification and determination are lacking. Here we report a (1) large Eastern European timber reference database (Betula, Fagus, Pinus, Quercus) tailored to sanctioned products following the Ukraine invasion; (2) statistical test to verify samples against a claimed origin; (3) probabilistic model of SIRA, TEA and genus distribution data, using Gaussian processes, to determine timber harvest location...
March 11, 2024: Nature Plants