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Heuristics AND cognitive biases

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28277716/from-anomalies-to-forecasts-toward-a-descriptive-model-of-decisions-under-risk-under-ambiguity-and-from-experience
#1
Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Ori Plonsky, Doron Cohen, Oded Cohen
Experimental studies of choice behavior document distinct, and sometimes contradictory, deviations from maximization. For example, people tend to overweight rare events in 1-shot decisions under risk, and to exhibit the opposite bias when they rely on past experience. The common explanations of these results assume that the contradicting anomalies reflect situation-specific processes that involve the weighting of subjective values and the use of simple heuristics. The current article analyzes 14 choice anomalies that have been described by different models, including the Allais, St...
March 9, 2017: Psychological Review
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28195028/academic-judgments-under-uncertainty-a-study-of-collective-anchoring-effects-in-swedish-research-council-panel-groups
#2
Lambros Roumbanis
This article focuses on anchoring effects in the process of peer reviewing research proposals. Anchoring effects are commonly seen as the result of flaws in human judgment, as cognitive biases that stem from specific heuristics that guide people when they involve their intuition in solving a problem. Here, the cognitive biases will be analyzed from a sociological point of view, as interactional and aggregated phenomena. The article is based on direct observations of ten panel groups evaluating research proposals in the natural and engineering sciences for the Swedish Research Council...
February 2017: Social Studies of Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28192674/designing-visual-aids-that-promote-risk-literacy
#3
Rocio Garcia-Retamero, Edward T Cokely
Background Effective risk communication is essential for informed decision making. Unfortunately, many people struggle to understand typical risk communications because they lack essential decision-making skills. Objective The aim of this study was to review the literature on the effect of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, and to evaluate the benefits of visual aids in risk communication. Method We present a conceptual framework describing the influence of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, followed by a systematic review of the benefits of visual aids in risk communication for people with different levels of numeracy and graph literacy...
February 1, 2017: Human Factors
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28125246/the-little-albert-controversy-intuition-confirmation-bias-and-logic
#4
Nancy Digdon
This article uses the recent controversy about Little Albert's identity as an example of a fine case study of problems that can befall psychologist-historians and historians who are unaware of their tacit assumptions. Because bias and logical errors are engrained in human habits of mind, we can all succumb to them under certain conditions unless we are vigilant in guarding against them. The search for Little Albert suggests 2 persistent issues: (a) confirmation bias and (b) that overconfidence in a belief detracts from reasoning because logical errors are intuitive and seem reasonable...
January 26, 2017: History of Psychology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28018200/a-cultural-evolution-approach-to-digital-media
#5
REVIEW
Alberto Acerbi
Digital media have today an enormous diffusion, and their influence on the behavior of a vast part of the human population can hardly be underestimated. In this review I propose that cultural evolution theory, including both a sophisticated view of human behavior and a methodological attitude to modeling and quantitative analysis, provides a useful framework to study the effects and the developments of media in the digital age. I will first give a general presentation of the cultural evolution framework, and I will then introduce this more specific research program with two illustrative topics...
2016: Frontiers in Human Neuroscience
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28003681/poverty-and-economic-decision-making-evidence-from-changes-in-financial-resources-at-payday
#6
Leandro S Carvalho, Stephan Meier, Stephanie W Wang
We study the effect of financial resources on decision-making. Low-income U.S. households are randomly assigned to receive an online survey before or after payday. The survey collects measures of cognitive function and administers risk and intertemporal choice tasks. The study design generates variation in cash, checking and savings balances, and expenditures. Before-payday participants behave as if they are more present-biased when making intertemporal choices about monetary rewards but not when making intertemporal choices about non-monetary real-effort tasks...
February 2016: American Economic Review
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27790170/cognitive-abilities-monitoring-confidence-and-control-thresholds-explain-individual-differences-in-heuristics-and-biases
#7
Simon A Jackson, Sabina Kleitman, Pauline Howie, Lazar Stankov
In this paper, we investigate whether individual differences in performance on heuristic and biases tasks can be explained by cognitive abilities, monitoring confidence, and control thresholds. Current theories explain individual differences in these tasks by the ability to detect errors and override automatic but biased judgments, and deliberative cognitive abilities that help to construct the correct response. Here we retain cognitive abilities but disentangle error detection, proposing that lower monitoring confidence and higher control thresholds promote error checking...
2016: Frontiers in Psychology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27771577/how-fear-relevant-illusory-correlations-might-develop-and-persist-in-anxiety-disorders-a-model-of-contributing-factors
#8
REVIEW
Julian Wiemer, Paul Pauli
Fear-relevant illusory correlations (ICs) are defined as the overestimation of the relationship between a fear-relevant stimulus and aversive consequences. ICs reflect biased cognitions affecting the learning and unlearning of fear in anxiety disorders, and a deeper understanding might help to improve treatment. A model for the maintenance of ICs is proposed that highlights the importance of amplified aversiveness and salience of fear-relevant outcomes, impaired executive contingency monitoring and an availability heuristic...
December 2016: Journal of Anxiety Disorders
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27713710/cognitive-reflection-decision-biases-and-response-times
#9
Carlos Alós-Ferrer, Michele Garagnani, Sabine Hügelschäfer
We present novel evidence on response times and personality traits in standard questions from the decision-making literature where responses are relatively slow (medians around half a minute or above). To this end, we measured response times in a number of incentivized, framed items (decisions from description) including the Cognitive Reflection Test, two additional questions following the same logic, and a number of classic questions used to study decision biases in probability judgments (base-rate neglect, the conjunction fallacy, and the ratio bias)...
2016: Frontiers in Psychology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27709981/deontological-coherence-a-framework-for-commonsense-moral-reasoning
#10
Keith J Holyoak, Derek Powell
We review a broad range of work, primarily in cognitive and social psychology, that provides insight into the processes of moral judgment. In particular, we consider research on pragmatic reasoning about regulations and on coherence in decision making, both areas in which psychological theories have been guided by work in legal philosophy. Armed with these essential prerequisites, we sketch a psychological framework for how ordinary people make judgments about moral issues. Based on a literature review, we show how the framework of deontological coherence unifies findings in moral psychology that have often been explained in terms of a grab-bag of heuristics and biases...
October 6, 2016: Psychological Bulletin
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27694289/preparing-dental-students-and-residents-to-overcome-internal-and-external-barriers-to-evidence-based-practice
#11
Brandon G Coleman, Thomas M Johnson, Kenneth J Erley, Richard Topolski, Michael Rethman, Douglas D Lancaster
In recent years, evidence-based dentistry has become the ideal for research, academia, and clinical practice. However, barriers to implementation are many, including the complexity of interpreting conflicting evidence as well as difficulties in accessing it. Furthermore, many proponents of evidence-based care seem to assume that good evidence consistently exists and that clinicians can and will objectively evaluate data so as to apply the best evidence to individual patients' needs. The authors argue that these shortcomings may mislead many clinicians and that students should be adequately prepared to cope with some of the more complex issues surrounding evidence-based practice...
October 2016: Journal of Dental Education
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27624752/expert-judgment-and-uncertainty-regarding-the-protection-of-imperiled-species
#12
Alexander Heeren, Gabriel Karns, Jeremy Bruskotter, Eric Toman, Robyn Wilson, Harmony Szarek
Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long-lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts' judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts' judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem...
September 14, 2016: Conservation Biology: the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27501907/a-two-stage-cognitive-theory-of-the-positive-symptoms-of-psychosis-highlighting-the-role-of-lowered-decision-thresholds
#13
Steffen Moritz, Gerit Pfuhl, Thies Lüdtke, Mahesh Menon, Ryan P Balzan, Christina Andreou
OBJECTIVES: We outline a two-stage heuristic account for the pathogenesis of the positive symptoms of psychosis. METHODS: A narrative review on the empirical evidence of the liberal acceptance (LA) account of positive symptoms is presented. HYPOTHESIS: At the heart of our theory is the idea that psychosis is characterized by a lowered decision threshold, which results in the premature acceptance of hypotheses that a nonpsychotic individual would reject...
July 7, 2016: Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27437694/stick-or-switch-a-selection-heuristic-predicts-when-people-take-the-perspective-of-others-or-communicate-egocentrically
#14
Shane L Rogers, Nicolas Fay
This paper examines a cognitive mechanism that drives perspective-taking and egocentrism in interpersonal communication. Using a conceptual referential communication task, in which participants describe a range of abstract geometric shapes, Experiment 1 shows that perspective-taking and egocentric communication are frequent communication strategies. Experiment 2 tests a selection heuristic account of perspective-taking and egocentric communication. It uses participants' shape description ratings to predict their communication strategy...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27422875/cooperation-fast-and-slow-meta-analytic-evidence-for-a-theory-of-social-heuristics-and-self-interested-deliberation
#15
David G Rand
Does cooperating require the inhibition of selfish urges? Or does "rational" self-interest constrain cooperative impulses? I investigated the role of intuition and deliberation in cooperation by meta-analyzing 67 studies in which cognitive-processing manipulations were applied to economic cooperation games (total N = 17,647; no indication of publication bias using Egger's test, Begg's test, or p-curve). My meta-analysis was guided by the social heuristics hypothesis, which proposes that intuition favors behavior that typically maximizes payoffs, whereas deliberation favors behavior that maximizes one's payoff in the current situation...
September 2016: Psychological Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27255736/manipulating-google-s-knowledge-graph-box-to-counter-biased-information-processing-during-an-online-search-on-vaccination-application-of-a-technological-debiasing-strategy
#16
Ramona Ludolph, Ahmed Allam, Peter J Schulz
BACKGROUND: One of people's major motives for going online is the search for health-related information. Most consumers start their search with a general search engine but are unaware of the fact that its sorting and ranking criteria do not mirror information quality. This misconception can lead to distorted search outcomes, especially when the information processing is characterized by heuristic principles and resulting cognitive biases instead of a systematic elaboration. As vaccination opponents are vocal on the Web, the chance of encountering their non‒evidence-based views on immunization is high...
2016: Journal of Medical Internet Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27143043/case-based-clinical-reasoning-in-feline-medicine-3-use-of-heuristics-and-illness-scripts
#17
Martin L Whitehead, Paul J Canfield, Robert Johnson, Carolyn R O'Brien, Richard Malik
AIM: This is Article 3 of a three-part series on clinical reasoning that encourages practitioners to explore and understand how they think and make case-based decisions. It is hoped that, in the process, they will learn to trust their intuition but, at the same time, put in place safeguards to diminish the impact of bias and misguided logic on their diagnostic decision-making. SERIES OUTLINE: Article 1, published in the January 2016 issue of JFMS, discussed the relative merits and shortcomings of System 1 thinking (immediate and unconscious) and System 2 thinking (effortful and analytical)...
May 2016: Journal of Feline Medicine and Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27116102/neural-substrates-of-cognitive-biases-during-probabilistic-inference
#18
Alireza Soltani, Peyman Khorsand, Clara Guo, Shiva Farashahi, Janet Liu
Decision making often requires simultaneously learning about and combining evidence from various sources of information. However, when making inferences from these sources, humans show systematic biases that are often attributed to heuristics or limitations in cognitive processes. Here we use a combination of experimental and modelling approaches to reveal neural substrates of probabilistic inference and corresponding biases. We find systematic deviations from normative accounts of inference when alternative options are not equally rewarding; subjects' choice behaviour is biased towards the more rewarding option, whereas their inferences about individual cues show the opposite bias...
2016: Nature Communications
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27111357/biases-and-heuristics-in-decision-making-and-their-impact-on-autonomy
#19
J S Blumenthal-Barby
Cognitive scientists have identified a wide range of biases and heuristics in human decision making over the past few decades. Only recently have bioethicists begun to think seriously about the implications of these findings for topics such as agency, autonomy, and consent. This article aims to provide an overview of biases and heuristics that have been identified and a framework in which to think comprehensively about the impact of them on the exercise of autonomous decision making. I analyze the impact that these biases and heuristics have on the following dimensions of autonomy: understanding, intentionality, absence of alienating or controlling influence, and match between formally autonomous preferences or decisions and actual choices or actions...
May 2016: American Journal of Bioethics: AJOB
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27053985/ehrlichia-meningitis-mimicking-aneurysmal-subarachnoid-hemorrhage-a-case-study-for-medical-decision-making-heuristics
#20
Brynn Dredla, William D Freeman
Thunderclap headache is a sudden and severe headache that can occur after an aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Subarachnoid hemorrhage is a medical emergency that requires prompt attention and hospitalization. Patients with thunderclap headache often undergo a noncontrast head computed tomography (CT) scan to ascertain SAH bleeding and, if the scan is negative, then undergo a lumbar puncture to look for cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) red blood cells (RBCs), which would be consistent with an aneurysmal leak...
April 2016: Neurohospitalist
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