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Validation simulation net benefit model

Timo M Deist, Frank J W M Dankers, Gilmer Valdes, Robin Wijsman, I-Chow Hsu, Cary Oberije, Tim Lustberg, Johan van Soest, Frank Hoebers, Arthur Jochems, Issam El Naqa, Leonard Wee, Olivier Morin, David R Raleigh, Wouter Bots, Johannes H Kaanders, José Belderbos, Margriet Kwint, Timothy Solberg, René Monshouwer, Johan Bussink, Andre Dekker, Philippe Lambin
PURPOSE: Machine learning classification algorithms (classifiers) for prediction of treatment response are becoming more popular in radiotherapy literature. General machine learning literature provides evidence in favor of some classifier families (random forest, support vector machine, gradient boosting) in terms of classification performance. The purpose of this study is to compare such classifiers specifically for (chemo)radiotherapy datasets and to estimate their average discriminative performance for radiation treatment outcome prediction...
May 15, 2018: Medical Physics
Leif Bjermer, Job F M van Boven, Madlaina Costa-Scharplatz, Dorothy L Keininger, Florian S Gutzwiller, Karin Lisspers, Ronan Mahon, Petter Olsson, Nicolas Roche
BACKGROUND: This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of indacaterol/glycopyrronium (IND/GLY) versus salmeterol/fluticasone (SFC) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients with moderate to very severe airflow limitation and ≥1 exacerbation in the preceding year. METHODS: A previously published and validated patient-level simulation model was adapted using clinical data from the FLAME trial and real-world cost data from the ARCTIC study. Costs (total monetary costs comprising drug, maintenance, exacerbation, and pneumonia costs) and health outcomes (life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)) were projected over various time horizons (1, 5, 10 years, and lifetime) from the Swedish payer's perspective and were discounted at 3% annually...
December 11, 2017: Respiratory Research
Stefan Flasche, Mark Jit, Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer, Laurent Coudeville, Mario Recker, Katia Koelle, George Milne, Thomas J Hladish, T Alex Perkins, Derek A T Cummings, Ilaria Dorigatti, Daniel J Laydon, Guido España, Joel Kelso, Ira Longini, Jose Lourenco, Carl A B Pearson, Robert C Reiner, Luis Mier-Y-Terán-Romero, Kirsten Vannice, Neil Ferguson
BACKGROUND: Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with Dengvaxia in a range of transmission settings, as characterised by seroprevalence levels among 9-y-olds (SP9)...
November 2016: PLoS Medicine
Jessy Lauer, Stéphane Vigier, Frédéric Delage, Alain Meudec, Jean-Michel Pollet, João Paulo Vilas-Boas, Annie Rouard
OBJECTIVE: Aquatic shoulder exercises are widely implemented into rehabilitation programs to provide early muscle strengthening and improved joint mobility. However, since the drag - the force exerted by the water on the moving segments - is very hard to measure, an in-depth knowledge of internal joint load is lacking, which ultimately prevents healthcare professionals from understanding all clinical implications. For the first time, shoulder joint moment, work, and power were calculated through a novel, validated numerical approach coupling fluid flow simulations and inverse dynamics...
September 2016: Annals of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine
Julius H Kotir, Carl Smith, Greg Brown, Nadine Marshall, Ron Johnstone
In a rapidly changing water resources system, dynamic models based on the notion of systems thinking can serve as useful analytical tools for scientists and policy-makers to study changes in key system variables over time. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics simulation model was developed using a system dynamics modelling approach to examine the feedback processes and interaction between the population, the water resource, and the agricultural production sub-sectors of the Volta River Basin in West Africa...
December 15, 2016: Science of the Total Environment
Takeshi Uchikura, Makoto Kobayashi, Masayuki Hashiguchi, Mayumi Mochizuki
BACKGROUND: In the construction of pharmacoeoconomic models, simplicity is desirable for transparency (people can see how the model is built), ease of analysis, validation (how well the model reproduces reality), and description. Few reports have described concrete methods for constructing simpler models. Therefore we focused on the value of additional states and uncertainty in disease models with multiple complications. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to examine the possibility of ranking additional states in disease models with multiple complications using a method for evaluating the quantification and uncertainty of additional states...
2015: Journal of Pharmaceutical Health Care and Sciences
Sean Gregory, Karen Kuntz, François Sainfort, Anupam Kharbanda
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a diagnostic protocol for appendicitis in children, the use of a validated clinical decision rule (CDR) and a staged imaging protocol, compared with usual care. METHODS: We estimated the cost-effectiveness of the three competing strategies using parameters from existing literature as well as a Markov model developed to simulate the effects of exposure to ionizing radiation from a single computed tomography (CT) study in the course of diagnosis...
January 2016: Value in Health: the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
Bruno Basso, Benjamin Dumont, Davide Cammarano, Andrea Pezzuolo, Francesco Marinello, Luigi Sartori
Agronomic input and management practices have traditionally been applied uniformly on agricultural fields despite the presence of spatial variability of soil properties and landscape position. When spatial variability is ignored, uniform agronomic management can be both economically and environmentally inefficient. The objectives of this study were to: i) identify optimal N fertilizer rates using an integrated spatio-temporal analysis of yield and site-specific N rate response; ii) test the sensitivity of site specific N management to nitrate leaching in response to different N rates; and iii) demonstrate the environmental benefits of variable rate N fertilizer in a Nitrate Vulnerable Zone...
March 1, 2016: Science of the Total Environment
Nicolas A Karakatsanis, Yun Zhou, Martin A Lodge, Michael E Casey, Richard L Wahl, Habib Zaidi, Arman Rahmim
We recently developed a dynamic multi-bed PET data acquisition framework to translate the quantitative benefits of Patlak voxel-wise analysis to the domain of routine clinical whole-body (WB) imaging. The standard Patlak (sPatlak) linear graphical analysis assumes irreversible PET tracer uptake, ignoring the effect of FDG dephosphorylation, which has been suggested by a number of PET studies. In this work: (i) a non-linear generalized Patlak (gPatlak) model is utilized, including a net efflux rate constant kloss, and (ii) a hybrid (s/g)Patlak (hPatlak) imaging technique is introduced to enhance contrast to noise ratios (CNRs) of uptake rate Ki images...
November 21, 2015: Physics in Medicine and Biology
Jackson Nowotny, Sharif Ahmed, Lingfei Xu, Oluwatosin Oluwadare, Hannah Chen, Noelan Hensley, Tuan Trieu, Renzhi Cao, Jianlin Cheng
BACKGROUND: The entire collection of genetic information resides within the chromosomes, which themselves reside within almost every cell nucleus of eukaryotic organisms. Each individual chromosome is found to have its own preferred three-dimensional (3D) structure independent of the other chromosomes. The structure of each chromosome plays vital roles in controlling certain genome operations, including gene interaction and gene regulation. As a result, knowing the structure of chromosomes assists in the understanding of how the genome functions...
October 23, 2015: BMC Bioinformatics
Pernilla Huetson, James L Palmer, Andrée Levorsen, Marie Fournier, Maeva Germe, Euan McLeod
BACKGROUND: Lixisenatide is a potent, selective and short-acting once daily prandial glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist which lowers glycohemoglobin and body weight by clinically significant amounts in patients with type 2 diabetes treated with basal insulin, with limited risk of hypoglycemia. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of lixisenatide versus bolus insulin, both in combination with basal insulin, in patients with type 2 diabetes in Norway...
2015: Journal of Medical Economics
Kok Mun Ng, Mamun Bin Ibne Reaz
Research on developing mathematical and simulative models to evaluate performance of signalized arterials is still ongoing. In this paper, an integrated model (IM) based on Rakha vehicle dynamics and LWR model is proposed. The IM which imitates actuated performance measurement in signalized arterials is described using continuous timed Petri net with variable speeds (VCPN). This enables systematic discretized description of platoon movement from an upstream signalized intersection towards a downstream signalized intersection...
2015: PloS One
Carlos Crespo, Antonio Monleon, Walter Díaz, Martín Ríos
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to create a new meta-analysis method for cost-effectiveness studies using comparative efficiency research (COMER). METHODS: We built a new score named total incremental net benefit (TINB), with inverse variance weighting of incremental net benefits (INB). This permits determination of whether an alternative is cost-effective, given a specific threshold (TINB > 0 test). Before validation of the model, the structure of dependence between costs and quality-adjusted life years (QoL) was analysed using copula distributions...
2014: BMC Medical Research Methodology
Miriam Kesselmeier, Carine Legrand, Barbara Peil, Maria Kabisch, Christine Fischer, Ute Hamann, Justo Lorenzo Bermejo
Logistic regression is usually applied to investigate the association between inherited genetic variants and a binary disease phenotype. A limitation of standard methods used to estimate the parameters of logistic regression models is their strong dependence on a few observations deviating from the majority of the data. We used data from the Genetic Analysis Workshop 18 to explore the possible benefit of robust logistic regression to estimate the genetic risk of hypertension. The comparison between standard and robust methods relied on the influence of departing hypertension profiles (outliers) on the estimated odds ratios, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves, and clinical net benefit...
2014: BMC Proceedings
Erin M Stuckey, Jennifer Stevenson, Katya Galactionova, Amrish Y Baidjoe, Teun Bousema, Wycliffe Odongo, Simon Kariuki, Chris Drakeley, Thomas A Smith, Jonathan Cox, Nakul Chitnis
INTRODUCTION: Tools that allow for in silico optimization of available malaria control strategies can assist the decision-making process for prioritizing interventions. The OpenMalaria stochastic simulation modeling platform can be applied to simulate the impact of interventions singly and in combination as implemented in Rachuonyo South District, western Kenya, to support this goal. METHODS: Combinations of malaria interventions were simulated using a previously-published, validated model of malaria epidemiology and control in the study area...
2014: PloS One
Evangelos Cholongitas, Andrew K Burroughs
Policies for organ allocation can be based on medical urgency, utility or transplant benefit. With an urgency policy, patients with worse outcomes on the waiting list are given higher priority for transplantation [based on the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score or the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, or United Kingdom model for End-stage Liver Disease (UKELD) score]. The MELD and UKELD scores have statistical validation and use objective and widely available laboratory tests. However, both scores have important limitations...
2012: Annals of Gastroenterology: Quarterly Publication of the Hellenic Society of Gastroenterology
Jason Madan, Anthony E Ades, Malcolm Price, Kathryn Maitland, Julie Jemutai, Paul Revill, Nicky J Welton
Expected value of information methods evaluate the potential health benefits that can be obtained from conducting new research to reduce uncertainty in the parameters of a cost-effectiveness analysis model, hence reducing decision uncertainty. Expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) provides an upper limit to the health gains that can be obtained from conducting a new study on a subset of parameters in the cost-effectiveness analysis and can therefore be used as a sensitivity analysis to identify parameters that most contribute to decision uncertainty and to help guide decisions around which types of study are of most value to prioritize for funding...
April 2014: Medical Decision Making: An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
Martial L Ndeffo Mbah, Eric M Poolman, Katherine E Atkins, Evan W Orenstein, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Jeffrey P Townsend, Alison P Galvani
BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data from Zimbabwe suggests that genital infection with Schistosoma haematobium may increase the risk of HIV infection in young women. Therefore, the treatment of Schistosoma haematobium with praziquantel could be a potential strategy for reducing HIV infection. Here we assess the potential cost-effectiveness of praziquantel as a novel intervention strategy against HIV infection. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) and HIV infections in Zimbabwe that we fitted to cross-sectional data of FGS and HIV prevalence of 1999...
2013: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Kit N Simpson, Pamela P Pei, Jörgen Möller, Robert W Baran, Birgitta Dietz, William Woodward, Kristen Migliaccio-Walle, J Jaime Caro
BACKGROUND: The ARTEMIS trial compared first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) with lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) to darunavir plus ritonavir (DRV + RTV) for HIV-1-infected subjects. In order to fully assess the implications of this study, economic modelling extrapolating over a longer term is required. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to simulate the course of HIV and its management, including the multiple factors known to be of importance in ART. METHODS: A comprehensive discrete event simulation was created to represent, as realistically as possible, ART management and HIV outcomes...
May 2013: PharmacoEconomics
B Kristian, K Wachtmeister, F Stefan, L Forsgren
OBJECTIVES: To calculate comparative incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (cost per quality-adjusted life year, QALY) and net marginal benefits for retigabine as add-on treatment for patients with uncontrolled focal seizures as compared to add-on lacosamide treatment and no add-on treatment, respectively. MATERIALS & METHODS: Calculations were performed using a validated decision-tree model. The study population consisted of adult patients with focal-onset epilepsy in published randomized placebo-controlled add-on trials of retigabine or lacosamide...
June 2013: Acta Neurologica Scandinavica
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