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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28231255/confidence-and-self-attribution-bias-in-an-artificial-stock-market
#1
Mario A Bertella, Felipe R Pires, Henio H A Rego, Jonathas N Silva, Irena Vodenska, H Eugene Stanley
Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index-both generated by our model-are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28220717/merger-acquisition-and-capital-expenditure-in-health-care
#2
Wenjing Ouyang, Peter E Hilsenrath
Investment, especially through merger and acquisition (M&A), is a leading topic of concern among health care managers. In addition, the implications of this activity for organization and market concentration are of great interest to policy makers. Using a sample of 2256 firm-year observations in the health care industry during the period from 1985 to 2011, this article provides novel evidence that managers learn from financial markets in making capital expenditure (CAPEX) and M&A investment decisions. Within the industry, managers in the Drugs subsector are most likely to do so, whereas managers in the Medical Equipment and Supplies are least likely to do so...
January 2017: Inquiry: a Journal of Medical Care Organization, Provision and Financing
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28190972/object-view-in-spatial-system-dynamics-a-grassland-farming-example
#3
REVIEW
Christian Neuwirth, Barbara Hofer, Andreas Schaumberger
Spatial system dynamics (SSD) models are typically implemented by linking stock variables to raster grids while the use of object representations of human artefacts such as buildings or ownership has been limited. This limitation is addressed by this article, which demonstrates the use of object representations in SSD. The objects are parcels of land that are attributed to grassland farms. The model simulates structural change in agriculture, i.e., change in the size of farms. The aim of the model is to reveal relations between structural change, farmland fragmentation and variable farmland quality...
July 2, 2016: J Spat Sci
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28159017/global-health-workforce-labor-market-projections-for-2030
#4
Jenny X Liu, Yevgeniy Goryakin, Akiko Maeda, Tim Bruckner, Richard Scheffler
BACKGROUND: In low- and middle-income countries, scaling essential health interventions to achieve health development targets is constrained by the lack of skilled health professionals to deliver services. METHODS: We take a labor market approach to project future health workforce demand based on an economic model based on projected economic growth, demographics, and health coverage, and using health workforce data (1990-2013) for 165 countries from the WHO Global Health Observatory...
February 3, 2017: Human Resources for Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28157288/envisioning-nano-release-dynamics-in-a-changing-world-using-dynamic-probabilistic-modeling-to-assess-future-environmental-emissions-of-engineered-nanomaterials
#5
Tian Yin Sun, Denise M Mitrano, Nikolaus A Bornhöft, Martin Scheringer, Konrad Hungerbühler, Bernd Nowack
The need for an environmental risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) necessitates the knowledge about their environmental emissions. Material flow models (MFA) have been used to provide predicted environmental emissions but most current nano-MFA models consider neither the rapid development of ENM production nor the fact that a large proportion of ENM are entering an in-use stock and are released from products over time (i.e., have a lag phase). Here we use dynamic probabilistic material flow modeling to predict scenarios of the future flows of four ENM (nano-TiO2, nano-ZnO, nano-Ag and CNT) to environmental compartments and to quantify their amounts in (temporary) sinks such as the in-use stock and ("final") environmental sinks such as soil and sediment...
February 16, 2017: Environmental Science & Technology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28147491/new-approach-of-financial-volatility-duration-dynamics-by-stochastic-finite-range-interacting-voter-system
#6
Guochao Wang, Jun Wang
We make an approach on investigating the fluctuation behaviors of financial volatility duration dynamics. A new concept of volatility two-component range intensity (VTRI) is developed, which constitutes the maximal variation range of volatility intensity and shortest passage time of duration, and can quantify the investment risk in financial markets. In an attempt to study and describe the nonlinear complex properties of VTRI, a random agent-based financial price model is developed by the finite-range interacting biased voter system...
January 2017: Chaos
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28145494/topological-characteristics-of-the-hong-kong-stock-market-a-test-based-p-threshold-approach-to-understanding-network-complexity
#7
Ronghua Xu, Wing-Keung Wong, Guanrong Chen, Shuo Huang
In this paper, we analyze the relationship among stock networks by focusing on the statistically reliable connectivity between financial time series, which accurately reflects the underlying pure stock structure. To do so, we firstly filter out the effect of market index on the correlations between paired stocks, and then take a t-test based P-threshold approach to lessening the complexity of the stock network based on the P values. We demonstrate the superiority of its performance in understanding network complexity by examining the Hong Kong stock market...
February 1, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28137850/seafood-prices-reveal-impacts-of-a-major-ecological-disturbance
#8
Martin D Smith, Atle Oglend, A Justin Kirkpatrick, Frank Asche, Lori S Bennear, J Kevin Craig, James M Nance
Coastal hypoxia (dissolved oxygen ≤ 2 mg/L) is a growing problem worldwide that threatens marine ecosystem services, but little is known about economic effects on fisheries. Here, we provide evidence that hypoxia causes economic impacts on a major fishery. Ecological studies of hypoxia and marine fauna suggest multiple mechanisms through which hypoxia can skew a population's size distribution toward smaller individuals. These mechanisms produce sharp predictions about changes in seafood markets. Hypoxia is hypothesized to decrease the quantity of large shrimp relative to small shrimp and increase the price of large shrimp relative to small shrimp...
January 30, 2017: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28129333/dynamic-portfolio-strategy-using-clustering-approach
#9
Fei Ren, Ya-Nan Lu, Sai-Ping Li, Xiong-Fei Jiang, Li-Xin Zhong, Tian Qiu
The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28076383/time-varying-transition-probability-matrix-estimation-and-its-application-to-brand-share-analysis
#10
Tomoaki Chiba, Hideitsu Hino, Shotaro Akaho, Noboru Murata
In a product market or stock market, different products or stocks compete for the same consumers or purchasers. We propose a method to estimate the time-varying transition matrix of the product share using a multivariate time series of the product share. The method is based on the assumption that each of the observed time series of shares is a stationary distribution of the underlying Markov processes characterized by transition probability matrices. We estimate transition probability matrices for every observation under natural assumptions...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28074782/the-need-for-a-life-cycle-based-aging-paradigm-for-nanomaterials-importance-of-real-world-test-systems-to-identify-realistic-particle-transformations
#11
Denise M Mitrano, Bernd Nowack
Assessing the risks of manufactured nanomaterials (MNM) has been almost exclusively focused on the pristine, as-produced materials with far fewer studies delving into more complex, real world scenarios. However, when considering a life-cycle perspective, it is clear that MNM released from commercial products during manufacturing, use and disposal are far more relevant both in terms of more realistic environmental fate and transport as well as environmental risk. The quantity in which the particles are released and their (altered) physical and chemical form should be identified and it is these metrics that should be used to assess the exposure and hazard the materials pose...
January 11, 2017: Nanotechnology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28070548/stock-market-index-data-and-indicators-for-day-trading-as-a-binary-classification-problem
#12
Renato Bruni
Classification is the attribution of labels to records according to a criterion automatically learned from a training set of labeled records. This task is needed in a huge number of practical applications, and consequently it has been studied intensively and several classification algorithms are available today. In finance, a stock market index is a measurement of value of a section of the stock market. It is often used to describe the aggregate trend of a market. One basic financial issue would be forecasting this trend...
February 2017: Data in Brief
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28068361/the-use-of-mixed-effects-models-for-obtaining-low-cost-ecosystem-carbon-stock-estimates-in-mangroves-of-the-asia-pacific
#13
Jacob J Bukoski, Jeremy S Broadhead, Daniel C Donato, Daniel Murdiyarso, Timothy G Gregoire
Mangroves provide extensive ecosystem services that support local livelihoods and international environmental goals, including coastal protection, biodiversity conservation and the sequestration of carbon (C). While voluntary C market projects seeking to preserve and enhance forest C stocks offer a potential means of generating finance for mangrove conservation, their implementation faces barriers due to the high costs of quantifying C stocks through field inventories. To streamline C quantification in mangrove conservation projects, we develop predictive models for (i) biomass-based C stocks, and (ii) soil-based C stocks for the mangroves of the Asia-Pacific...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28050584/dataset-for-petroleum-based-stock-markets-and-gauss-codes-for-samem
#14
Ahmed A A Khalifa, Pietro Bertuccelli, Edoardo Otranto
This article includes a unique data set of a balanced daily (Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday) for oil and natural gas volatility and the oil rich economies' stock markets for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain and Oman, using daily data over the period spanning Oct. 18, 2006-July 30, 2015. Additionally, we have included unique GAUSS codes for estimating the spillover asymmetric multiplicative error model (SAMEM) with application to Petroleum-Based Stock Market. The data, the model and the codes have many applications in business and social science...
February 2017: Data in Brief
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28049481/expanding-access-to-parasite-based-malaria-diagnosis-through-retail-drug-shops-in-tanzania-evidence-from-a-randomized-trial-and-implications-for-treatment
#15
Kathleen Maloney, Abigail Ward, Bonnie Krenz, Nora Petty, Lindsay Bryson, Caitlin Dolkart, Theodoor Visser, Arnaud Le Menach, Valerie K Scott, Justin M Cohen, Esther Mtumbuka, Sigsbert Mkude
BACKGROUND: Tanzania has seen a reduction in the fraction of fevers caused by malaria, likely due in part to scale-up of control measures. While national guidelines require parasite-based diagnosis prior to treatment, it is estimated that more than half of suspected malaria treatment-seeking in Tanzania initiates in the private retail sector, where diagnosis by malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or microscopy is illegal. This pilot study investigated whether the introduction of RDTs into Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) under realistic market conditions would improve case management practices...
January 3, 2017: Malaria Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27994468/relationship-between-suicide-rate-and-economic-growth-and-stock-market-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china-2004-2013
#16
Honglei Yin, Lin Xu, Yechang Shao, Liping Li, Chengsong Wan
OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to estimate the features of suicide rate and its association with economic development and stock market during the past decade in the People's Republic of China. METHODS: Official data were gathered and analyzed in the People's Republic of China during the period 2004-2013. Nationwide suicide rate was stratified by four year age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions (East, Central, and West). Annual economic indexes including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and rural and urban income per capita were all adjusted for inflation...
2016: Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27990041/supplying-trees-in-an-era-of-environmental-uncertainty-identifying-challenges-faced-by-the-forest-nursery-sector-in-great-britain
#17
Richard Whittet, Joan Cottrell, Stephen Cavers, Mireia Pecurul, Richard Ennos
In recent years, numerous articles have addressed management strategies aimed at assisting forests to adapt to climate change. However, these seldom take into account the practical and economic implications of implementing these strategies, notably, supply of forest plants and seed. Using semi-structured interviews with practitioners involved in the plant and seed supply chain in Great Britain, we highlight a series of practical and economic bottlenecks commonly encountered in the supply of locally sourced seed and domestically produced planting stock for native woodland and hedging markets...
December 15, 2016: Land Use Policy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27979298/development-of-the-method-for-identification-of-selected-populations-of-torpedo-scad-megalaspis-cordyla-linnaeus-1758-using-microsatellite-dna-analyses-celfish-project-part-4
#18
Kempter Jolanta, Kielpinski Maciej, Panicz Remigiusz, Kaja Prüffer, Keszka Sławomir
Catch and consumption of torpedo scad (Megalaspis cordyla) over the western Indian Ocean, but also the western Pacific from Japan to Australia is constantly increasing. Taking into account the degree of exploitation and missing information on the population structure of torpedo scad stocks it is crucial to provide population data. The analysis included individuals obtained in 2012 and 2013 from local markets in Madagascar, Tanzania, Vietnam and Cambodia and after successful DNA extraction fragment of the nuclear rhodopsin gene (RH1) and 9 microsatellite regions (SSRs) were amplified and analysed...
April 15, 2017: Food Chemistry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27917960/a-vision-for-the-future-of-pastoralism
#19
J Zinsstag, B Bonfoh, G Zinsstag, L Crump, I O Alfaroukh, M F Abakar, J Kasymbekov, Z Baljinnyam, K Liechti, M A Seid, E Schelling
Pastoral regions are challenged by social and ecological changes. Yet, there is increasingly robust evidence that pastoralism is a viable and sustainable livelihood and that pastoralists play a role in attaining the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this issue of the Scientific and Technical Review of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), the authors take a broad view of pastoralism and pastoral livestock production from a number of different perspectives, taking into account societal and ecological viewpoints as well as issues of animal and human health...
November 2016: Revue Scientifique et Technique
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27900240/the-effect-of-malaysia-general-election-on-stock-market-returns
#20
Venus Khim-Sen Liew, Racquel Rowland
During the latest episode of general election held in Malaysia, it is observed that the FBMKLCI index was lifted 62.52 points in a day soon after the announcement of election outcome. Moreover, the index registered a highest gain of 96.29 points in the middle of the intra-day trade. This suggests that investors who had got the right direction could make profitable intra-day trading the next trading day of the general election date. Results from statistical analysis uncover significant before-election-effect and after-election-effect from the most recent general elections held in Malaysia...
2016: SpringerPlus
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