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land change modeling

Nicholas J Clark, Konstans Wells, Oscar Lindberg
Inferring interactions between co-occurring species is key to identify processes governing community assembly. Incorporating interspecific interactions in predictive models is common in ecology, yet most methods do not adequately account for indirect interactions (where an interaction between two species is masked by their shared interactions with a third) and assume interactions do not vary along environmental gradients. Markov random fields (MRF) overcome these limitations by estimating interspecific interactions, while controlling for indirect interactions, from multispecies occurrence data...
May 16, 2018: Ecology
M Schwieder, P J Leitão, J R R Pinto, A M C Teixeira, F Pedroni, M Sanchez, M M Bustamante, P Hostert
BACKGROUND: The quantification and spatially explicit mapping of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems is important to better understand the global carbon cycle and to monitor and report change processes, especially in the context of international policy mechanisms such as REDD+ or the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Especially in heterogeneous ecosystems, such as Savannas, accurate carbon quantifications are still lacking, where highly variable vegetation densities occur and a strong seasonality hinders consistent data acquisition...
May 15, 2018: Carbon Balance and Management
Hugues Goosse, Jennifer E Kay, Kyle C Armour, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Helene Chepfer, David Docquier, Alexandra Jonko, Paul J Kushner, Olivier Lecomte, François Massonnet, Hyo-Seok Park, Felix Pithan, Gunilla Svensson, Martin Vancoppenolle
The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections...
May 15, 2018: Nature Communications
Li Jin, Paul G Whitehead, Harvey Rodda, Ian Macadam, Sananda Sarkar
Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system...
May 12, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Xueting Zeng, Tienan Li, Cong Chen, Zhenjiang Si, Guohe Huang, Ping Guo, Xiaowen Zhuang
In this study, a hybrid land-water-environment (LWE) model is developed for identifying ecological effect and risk under uncertain precipitation in an agroforestry ecosystem. A simulation-based fuzzy-stochastic programming with risk analysis (SFSR) method is used into LWE model to reflect the meteorological impacts; meanwhile, it also can quantify artificial fuzziness (e.g., risk attitude of policymaker) and natural vagueness (e.g., ecological function) in decision-making. The developed LWE model with SFSR method is applied to a practical agroforestry ecosystem in China...
August 15, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Yongjiu Feng, Qianqian Yang, Xiaohua Tong, Lijuan Chen
Land ecological security (LES) refers to the environmental health and sustainability of the land resources and ecosystems, which are substantially affected by biophysical and socio-economic factors. We assess the spatiotemporal patterns of LES in Ningbo city on the southeast coast of China from 1975 to 2015 and explore the effects of driving factors. Expert evaluation is used to estimate the LES score for each 2×2km grid and map the patterns by Kriging. Five levels of LES are used: very secure, secure, neutral, insecure and very insecure...
August 15, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Shereif H Mahmoud, Thian Y Gan
The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change...
August 15, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Hari Ram Upadhayay, Hugh G Smith, Marco Griepentrog, Samuel Bodé, Roshan Man Bajracharya, William Blake, Wim Cornelis, Pascal Boeckx
Soil erosion by water is critical for soil, lake and reservoir degradation in the mid-hills of Nepal. Identification of the nature and relative contribution of sediment sources in rivers is important to mitigate water erosion within catchments and siltation problems in lakes and reservoirs. We estimated the relative contribution of land uses (i.e. sources) to suspended and streambed sediments in the Chitlang catchment using stable carbon isotope signature (δ13 C) of long-chain fatty acids as a tracer input for MixSIAR, a Bayesian mixing model used to apportion sediment sources...
May 8, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Yue Li, Shilong Piao, Laurent Z X Li, Anping Chen, Xuhui Wang, Philippe Ciais, Ling Huang, Xu Lian, Shushi Peng, Zhenzhong Zeng, Kai Wang, Liming Zhou
China has experienced substantial changes in vegetation cover, with a 10% increase in the leaf area index and an ~41.5 million-hectare increase in forest area since the 1980s. Earlier studies have suggested that increases in leaf area and tree cover have led to a decline in soil moisture and runoff due to increased evapotranspiration (ET), especially in dry regions of China. However, those studies often ignored precipitation responses to vegetation increases, which could offset some of the negative impact on soil moisture by increased ET...
May 2018: Science Advances
Reinhard Prestele, Annette L Hirsch, Edouard L Davin, Sonia I Seneviratne, Peter H Verburg
Conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a sustainable agricultural management strategy with the potential to alleviate some of the adverse effects of modern, industrial agriculture such as large-scale soil erosion, nutrient leaching and overexploitation of water resources. Moreover, agricultural land managed under CA is proposed to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation through reduced emission of greenhouse gases, increased solar radiation reflection, and the sustainable use of soil and water resources...
May 10, 2018: Global Change Biology
Jinshi Jian, Meredith K Steele, R Quinn Thomas, Susan D Day, Steven C Hodges
Quantifying global soil respiration (RSG ) and its response to temperature change are critical for predicting the turnover of terrestrial carbon stocks and their feedbacks to climate change. Currently, estimates of RSG range from 68 to 98 Pg C yr-1 , causing considerable uncertainty in the global carbon budget. We argue the source of this variability lies in the upscaling assumptions regarding the model format, data timescales, and precipitation component. To quantify the variability and constrain RSG , we developed RSG models using Random Forest and exponential models, and used different timescales (daily, monthly, and annual) of soil respiration (RS ) and climate data to predict RSG ...
May 10, 2018: Global Change Biology
Pooja Sharma, James Humphreys, Nicholas M Holden
Abolition of the milk quota in the European Union and favourable market conditions have stimulated the expansion of the dairy sector in Ireland, causing more milk to be produced from poorly drained land. This work evaluated the environmental impacts of alternative agricultural uses for poorly drained farm land in Ireland using life cycle assessment (LCA). The avoided burden of the displaced product was used to calculate the net environmental consequences in the context of regional or global markets. The impact categories evaluated were climate change, eutrophication and acidification, all expressed per hectare of land for the alternative land uses, which were pasture-based milk, suckler beef and lowland sheep production and coniferous forestry...
May 7, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Paul Treacy, Pamela Jagger, Conghe Song, Qi Zhang, Richard E Bilsborrow
In the late 1990s, China's Yangtze and Yellow River Basins suffered devastating natural disasters widely attributed to the degradation of soil and water resources. The Government of China responded with a number of major environmental programs, the most expensive and influential of which, the Grain for Green (GfG) Program, was implemented widely from 1999. Under the GfG Program-also known as the Sloping Land Conversion or Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program-the central government compensates farmers to convert cropland on steep slopes or otherwise ecologically sensitive areas to forest or grassland...
May 8, 2018: Environmental Management
Andreas Heinemeyer, Graeme T Swindles
Peatlands represent globally significant soil carbon stores that have been accumulating for millennia under water-logged conditions. However, deepening water-table depths (WTD) from climate change or human-induced drainage could stimulate decomposition resulting in peatlands turning from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Contemporary WTD ranges of testate amoebae (TA) are commonly used to predict past WTD in peatlands using quantitative transfer function models. Here we present, for the first time, a study comparing TA-based WTD reconstructions to instrumentally-monitored WTD and hydrological model predictions using the MILLENNIA peatland model to examine past peatland responses to climate change and land management...
May 8, 2018: Global Change Biology
Paul R Armsworth
Should conservation organizations focus on protecting habitats that are at imminent risk of being converted but are expensive or more remote areas that are less immediately threatened but where a large amount of land can be set aside? Variants of this trade-off commonly arise in spatial planning. We examined this trade-off using models of land use change near a deforestation frontier. The optimal choice of where to protect was determined by how decisions taken today accounted for ecological benefits and economic costs of conservation actions that would occur sometime in the future...
May 8, 2018: Conservation Biology: the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Fatemeh Jahanishakib, Seyed Hamed Mirkarimi, Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny, Fatemeh Poodat
Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario...
May 8, 2018: Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Gehendra Kharel, Andrei Kirilenko
Background: Water level fluctuations in endorheic lakes are highly susceptible to even slight changes in climate and land use. Devils Lake (DL) in North Dakota, USA is an endorheic system that has undergone multi-decade flooding driven by changes in regional climate. Flooding mitigation strategies have centered on the release of lake water to a nearby river system through artificial outlets, resulting in legal challenges and environmental concerns related to water quality, downstream flooding, species migration, stakeholder opposition, and transboundary water conflicts between the US and Canada...
2018: PeerJ
Temesgen Gashaw, Taffa Tulu, Mekuria Argaw, Abeyou W Worqlul
Understanding the hydrological response of a watershed to land use/land cover (LULC) changes is imperative for water resources management planning. The objective of this study was to analyze the hydrological impacts of LULC changes in the Andassa watershed for a period of 1985-2015 and to predict the LULC change impact on the hydrological status in year 2045. The hybrid land use classification technique for classifying Landsat images (1985, 2000 and 2015); Cellular-Automata Markov (CA-Markov) for prediction of the 2030 and 2045 LULC states; the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrological modeling were employed in the analyses...
April 1, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Pilar Vizcaino, Carlo Lavalle
A new Land Use Regression model was built to develop pan-European 100 m resolution maps of NO2 concentrations. The model was built using NO2 concentrations from routine monitoring stations available in the Airbase database as dependent variable. Predictor variables included land use, road traffic proxies, population density, climatic and topographical variables, and distance to sea. In order to capture international and inter regional disparities not accounted for with the mentioned predictor variables, additional proxies of NO2 concentrations, like levels of activity intensity and NOx emissions for specific sectors, were also included...
May 4, 2018: Environmental Pollution
Rebecca Bentley, Tony Blakely, Anne Kavanagh, Zoe Aitken, Tania King, Paul McElwee, Billie Giles-Corti, Gavin Turrell
BACKGROUND: Societies face the challenge of keeping people active as they age. Walkable neighborhoods have been associated with physical activity, but more rigorous analytical approaches are needed. OBJECTIVES: We used longitudinal data from adult residents of Brisbane, Australia (40-65 years of age at baseline) to estimate effects of changes in neighborhood characteristics over a 6-y period on the likelihood of walking for transport. METHODS: Analyses included 2,789-9,747 How Areas Influence Health and Activity (HABITAT) cohort participants from 200 neighborhoods at baseline (2007) who completed up to three follow-up questionnaires (through 2013)...
May 3, 2018: Environmental Health Perspectives
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