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land change modeling

Jonathan W Moore, Julian D Olden
Integrating knowledge of environmental degradation, biodiversity change, and ecosystem processes across large spatial scales remains a key challenge to illuminating the resilience of Earth's systems. There is now a growing realization that the manner in which communities will respond to anthropogenic impacts will ultimately control the ecosystem consequences. Here we examine the response of freshwater fishes and their nutrient excretion - a key ecosystem process that can control aquatic productivity - to human land development across the contiguous United States...
October 20, 2016: Global Change Biology
Behnaz RaheliNamin, Samar Mortazavi, Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny
The combination of degrading natural conditions and resources, climate change, growing population, urban development, and competition in a global market complicate optimization of land for agricultural products. The use of pesticides and fertilizers for crop production in the agricultural fields has become excessive in the recent years and Golestan Province of Iran is no exception in this regard. For this, effective management with an efficient and cost-effective practice should be undertaken, maintaining public service at a high level and preserving the environment...
November 2016: Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Linda J Gormezano, Scott R McWilliams, David T Iles, Robert F Rockwell
Trade-offs between locomotory costs and foraging gains are key elements in determining constraints on predator-prey interactions. One intriguing example involves polar bears pursuing snow geese on land. As climate change forces polar bears to spend more time ashore, they may need to expend more energy to obtain land-based food. Given that polar bears are inefficient at terrestrial locomotion, any extra energy expended to pursue prey could negatively impact survival. However, polar bears have been regularly observed engaging in long pursuits of geese and other land animals, and the energetic worth of such behaviour has been repeatedly questioned...
2016: Conservation Physiology
Oliver R Wearn, Chris Carbone, J Marcus Rowcliffe, Henry Bernard, Robert M Ewers
Diversity responses to land-use change are poorly understood at local scales, hindering our ability to make forecasts and management recommendations at scales which are of practical relevance. A key barrier in this has been the underappreciation of grain-dependent diversity responses and the role that β-diversity (variation in community composition across space) plays in this. Decisions about the most effective spatial arrangement of conservation set-aside, for example high conservation value areas, have also neglected β-diversity, despite its role in determining the complementarity of sites...
July 2016: Ecological Applications: a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
Bérenger Bourgeois, Eduardo González, Anne Vanasse, Isabelle Aubin, Monique Poulin
The disruption of hydrological connectivity by human activities such as flood regulation or land-use changes strongly impacts riparian plant communities. However, landscape-scale processes have generally been neglected in riparian restoration projects as opposed to local conditions, even though such processes might largely influence community recovery. We surveyed plant composition of field edges and riverbanks in 51 riparian zones restored by tree planting (565 1-m(2) plots) within two agricultural watersheds in southeastern Québec, Canada...
October 2016: Ecological Applications: a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
Ayesha I T Tulloch, Jean-Baptiste Pichancourt, Carl R Gosper, Angela Sanders, Iadine Chadès
Changed fire regimes have led to declines of fire-regime-adapted species and loss of biodiversity globally. Fire affects population processes of growth, reproduction, and dispersal in different ways, but there is little guidance about the best fire regime(s) to maintain species population processes in fire-prone ecosystems. We use a process-based approach to determine the best range of fire intervals for keystone plant species in a highly modified Mediterranean ecosystem in southwestern Australia where current fire regimes vary...
October 2016: Ecological Applications: a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
Helen R Sofaer, Susan K Skagen, Joseph J Barsugli, Benjamin S Rashford, Gordon C Reese, Jennifer A Hoeting, Andrew W Wood, Barry R Noon
Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species...
September 2016: Ecological Applications: a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
Mukesh Dev Bhattarai, Silvia Secchi, Justin Schoof
Land-based carbon sequestration constitutes a major low cost and immediately viable option in climate change mitigation. Using downscaled data from eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models for a simulation period between 2015 and 2099, we examine the carbon sequestration potential of alternative agricultural land uses in an intensively farmed Corn Belt watershed and the impact of climate change on crop yields. Our results show that switching from conventional tillage continuous corn to no-till corn-soybean can sequester the equivalent of 192...
October 11, 2016: Environmental Management
Françoise Vernier, Odile Leccia-Phelpin, Jean-Marie Lescot, Sébastien Minette, André Miralles, Delphine Barberis, Charlotte Scordia, Vanessa Kuentz-Simonet, Jean-Philippe Tonneau
Non-point source pollution is a cause of major concern within the European Union. This is reflected in increasing public and political focus on a more sustainable use of pesticides, as well as a reduction in diffuse pollution. Climate change will likely to lead to an even more intensive use of pesticides in the future, affecting agriculture in many ways. At the same time, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and associated EU policies called for a "good" ecological and chemical status to be achieved for water bodies by the end of 2015, currently delayed to 2021-2027 due to a lack of efficiency in policies and timescale of resilience for hydrosystems, especially groundwater systems...
October 10, 2016: Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
Yann Clough, Vijesh V Krishna, Marife D Corre, Kevin Darras, Lisa H Denmead, Ana Meijide, Stefan Moser, Oliver Musshoff, Stefanie Steinebach, Edzo Veldkamp, Kara Allen, Andrew D Barnes, Natalie Breidenbach, Ulrich Brose, Damayanti Buchori, Rolf Daniel, Reiner Finkeldey, Idham Harahap, Dietrich Hertel, A Mareike Holtkamp, Elvira Hörandl, Bambang Irawan, I Nengah Surati Jaya, Malte Jochum, Bernhard Klarner, Alexander Knohl, Martyna M Kotowska, Valentyna Krashevska, Holger Kreft, Syahrul Kurniawan, Christoph Leuschner, Mark Maraun, Dian Nuraini Melati, Nicole Opfermann, César Pérez-Cruzado, Walesa Edho Prabowo, Katja Rembold, Akhmad Rizali, Ratna Rubiana, Dominik Schneider, Sri Sudarmiyati Tjitrosoedirdjo, Aiyen Tjoa, Teja Tscharntke, Stefan Scheu
Smallholder-dominated agricultural mosaic landscapes are highlighted as model production systems that deliver both economic and ecological goods in tropical agricultural landscapes, but trade-offs underlying current land-use dynamics are poorly known. Here, using the most comprehensive quantification of land-use change and associated bundles of ecosystem functions, services and economic benefits to date, we show that Indonesian smallholders predominantly choose farm portfolios with high economic productivity but low ecological value...
October 11, 2016: Nature Communications
Freya E Rowland, Madelyn B Rawlings, Raymond D Semlitsch
Primary production can be controlled through bottom-up (e.g., resources) or top-down (e.g., predators) constraints. Two key bottom-up resources in small aquatic systems are light and nutrients, and forest canopy cover heavily influences these factors, whereas amphibian and invertebrate colonizers exert top-down pressure as grazers and predators. We designed our experiment to specifically manipulate two different top-down and bottom-up factors. We manipulated resources by altering light (low/high) and nutrient (low/high) availability; omnivores with the presence/absence of southern leopard frog tadpoles (Lithobates sphenocephalus); and predators with the presence/absence of spotted salamander larvae (Ambystoma maculatum) in a full-factorial experiment conducted over 14 weeks...
October 7, 2016: Oecologia
Michael Jacques Lathuillière, Cecile Bulle, Mark S Johnson
The incorporation of soil moisture regenerated by precipitation, or green water, into life cycle assessment has been of growing interest given the global importance of this resource for terrestrial ecosystems and food production. This paper proposes a new impact assessment model to relate land and water use in seasonally dry, semi-arid, and arid regions where precipitation and evapotranspiration are closely coupled. We introduce the Precipitation Reduction Potential mid-point impact representing the change in downwind precipitation as a result of a land transformation and occupation activity...
October 7, 2016: Environmental Science & Technology
Ya-Ru Yang, Yung-Ming Chen, Szu-Ying Chen, Chang-Chuan Chan
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the associations between particulate matter (PM) exposures and renal function among adults. METHODS: We recruited 21,656 adults as subjects from 2007-2009. The Taiwanese Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation was used to derive the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Subjects with an eGFR lower than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were defined as having chronic kidney disease (CKD). Land use regression (LUR) models were used to estimate individual exposures to PM with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM10), coarse particles (PMCoarse), fine particles (PM2...
October 7, 2016: Environmental Health Perspectives
Tekalegn Ayele Woldesenbet, Nadir Ahmed Elagib, Lars Ribbe, Jürgen Heinrich
Understanding how changes in distinctive land use/land cover (LULC) types influence the basin hydrology would greatly improve the predictability of the hydrological consequences of LULC dynamics for sustainable water resource management. As the main flow contributor to the River Nile, quantifying the effect of LULC change on water resources in the source regions is very important for the assessment of water resources availability and management downstream in the riparian states in general and the study watersheds in particular...
October 3, 2016: Science of the Total Environment
Marien Havé, Anne Marmagne, Fabien Chardon, Céline Masclaux-Daubresse
As a result of climate changes, land use and agriculture have to adapt to new demands. Agriculture is responsible for a large part of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that have to be urgently reduced in order to protect the environment. At the same time, agriculture has to cope with the challenges of sustainably feeding a growing world population. Reducing the use of the ammonia-nitrate fertilizers that are responsible for a large part of the GHGs released and that have a negative impact on carbon balance is one of the objectives of precision agriculture...
October 5, 2016: Journal of Experimental Botany
David H Maphisa, Hanneline Smit-Robinson, Les G Underhill, Res Altwegg
Moist high-altitude grasslands in South Africa are renowned for high avifaunal diversity and are priority areas for conservation. Conservation management of these areas conflicts with management for other uses, such as intensive livestock agriculture, which requires annual burning and leads to heavy grazing. Recently the area has become target for water storage schemes and renewable electricity energy projects. There is therefore an urgent need to investigate environmental factors and habitat factors that affect bird species richness in order to optimise management of those areas set aside for conservation...
2016: PloS One
Sana A Shaikh, Drew M Dolino, Garam Lee, Sudeshna Chatterjee, David M MacLean, Charlotte Flatebo, Christy F Landes, Vasanthi Jayaraman
Fast excitatory synaptic signaling in the mammalian brain is mediated by AMPA-type ionotropic glutamate receptors. In neurons, AMPA receptors co-assemble with auxiliary proteins, such as stargazin, which can markedly alter receptor trafficking and gating. Here, we used luminescence resonance energy transfer measurements to map distances between the full-length, functional AMPA receptor and stargazin expressed in HEK293 cells and to determine the ensemble structural changes in the receptor due to stargazin. In addition, we used single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer to study the structural and conformational distribution of the receptor and how this distribution is affected by stargazin...
October 4, 2016: Cell Reports
Jana A Hirsch, Joe Grengs, Amy Schulz, Sara D Adar, Daniel A Rodriguez, Shannon J Brines, Ana V Diez Roux
Investments in neighborhood built environments could increase physical activity and overall health. Disproportionate distribution of these changes in advantaged neighborhoods could inflate health disparities. Little information exists on where changes are occurring. This paper aims to 1) identify changes in the built environment in neighborhoods and 2) investigate associations between high levels of change and sociodemographic characteristics. Using Geographic Information Systems, neighborhood land-use, local destinations (for walking, social engagement, and physical activity), and sociodemographics were characterized in 2000 and 2010 for seven U...
September 23, 2016: Social Science & Medicine
Roberto Solazzo, Michele Donati, Licia Tomasi, Filippo Arfini
Agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for more than 10% of total CO2 emissions in the EU-28 area. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) plays an important role in promoting environmentally and climate friendly practices and needs to respond to the new environmental challenges by better integrating its objectives with other EU policies. In this respect, the recent CAP reform 2014-2020 made a further step, making a large part of direct payments conditional on new agricultural practices beneficial for the climate and the environment, i...
September 29, 2016: Science of the Total Environment
Sebastián Horacio Villarino, Guillermo Alberto Studdert, Pablo Baldassini, María Gabriela Cendoya, Lucía Ciuffoli, Matias Mastrángelo, Gervasio Piñeiro
Land use change affects soil organic carbon (SOC) and generates CO2 emissions. Moreover, SOC depletion entails degradation of soil functions that support ecosystem services. Large areas covered by dry forests have been cleared in the Semiarid Chaco Region of Argentina for cropping expansion. However, deforestation impacts on the SOC stock and its distribution in the soil profile have been scarcely reported. We assessed these impacts based on the analysis of field data along a time-since-deforestation-for-cropping chronosequence, and remote sensing indices...
September 29, 2016: Science of the Total Environment
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