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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28814764/percolation-phase-transition-of-surface-air-temperature-networks-a-new-test-bed-for-el-ni%C3%A3-o-la-ni%C3%A3-a-simulations
#1
Lijuan Hua, Zhenghui Lu, Naiming Yuan, Lin Chen, Yongqiang Yu, Lu Wang
In this work, we studied the air-sea interaction over the tropical central eastern Pacific from a new perspective, climate network. The surface air temperatures over the tropical Pacific were constructed as a network, and the nodes within this network were linked if they have a similar temporal varying pattern. Using three different reanalysis datasets, we verified the percolation phase transition. That is, when the influences of El Niño/La Niña are strong enough to isolate more than 48% of the nodes, the network may abruptly be divided into many small pieces, indicating a change of the network state...
August 16, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28812707/the-rise-and-fall-of-malaria-under-land-use-change-in-frontier-regions
#2
Andres Baeza, Mauricio Santos-Vega, Andrew P Dobson, Mercedes Pascual
Land-use change is the main force behind ecological and social change in many countries around the globe; it is primarily driven by resource needs and external economic incentives. Concomitantly, transformations of the land are the main drivers for the emergence and re-emergence of malaria. An understanding of malaria population dynamics in transforming landscapes is lacking, despite its relevance for developmental and public health policies. We develop a mathematical model that couples malaria epidemiology with the socio-economic and demographic processes that occur in a landscape undergoing land-use change...
March 20, 2017: Nature ecology & evolution
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28805965/the-interplay-of-climate-and-land-use-change-affects-the-distribution-of-eu-bumblebees
#3
Leon Marshall, Jacobus C Biesmeijer, Pierre Rasmont, Nicolas J Vereecken, Libor Dvorak, Una Fitzpatrick, Frédéric Francis, Johann Neumayer, Frode Ødegaard, Juho P T Paukkunen, Tadeusz Pawlikowski, Menno Reemer, Stuart P M Roberts, Jakub Straka, Sarah Vray, Nicolas Dendoncker
Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX)...
August 14, 2017: Global Change Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28802894/doomed-to-collapse-why-algerian-steppe-rangelands-are-overgrazed-and-some-lessons-to-help-land-use-transitions
#4
Jaime Martínez-Valderrama, Javier Ibáñez, Gabriel Del Barrio, Francisco J Alcalá, Maria E Sanjuán, Alberto Ruiz, Azziz Hirche, Juan Puigdefábregas
This work illustrates the application of a simulation model to analyse how swiftly large-scale land-use changes can drive broad territories to collapse. In this sense, the economic needs of a population should not clash with the natural environment but rather be reconciled with it. Abundant literature deals with the integration of socioeconomic drivers, ecological aspects, farming management, and climatology related to Algerian rangeland degradation. The present study seeks to compare the time course of Alfa grass biomass and the livestock raised on these distinctive rangelands under two different land-use strategies...
August 9, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28800978/modelling-landscape-dynamics-with-lst-in-protected-areas-of-western-ghats-karnataka
#5
T V Ramachandra, Setturu Bharath, Nimish Gupta
Forest ecosystems sustain biota on the earth as they are habitat to diverse biotic species, arrests soil erosion, play a crucial role in water cycle, sequester carbon, and helps in mitigating the impacts of global warming. Large scale land use land cover (LULC) change leading to deforestation is one of the drivers of global climate changes and alteration of biogeochemical cycles with significant consequences in ecosystem services and biodiversity. This has necessitated the investigation of LULC by mapping, monitoring and modelling spatio-temporal patterns and evaluating these in the context of human-environment interactions...
August 8, 2017: Journal of Environmental Management
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28799245/when-and-where-to-move-dynamic-occupancy-models-explain-the-range-dynamics-of-a-food-nomadic-bird-under-climate-and-land-cover-change
#6
Riddhika Kalle, Tharmalingam Ramesh, Colleen T Downs
Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modelled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns...
August 11, 2017: Global Change Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28796909/temperature-drives-abundance-fluctuations-but-spatial-dynamics-is-constrained-by-landscape-configuration-implications-for-climate-driven-range-shift-in-a-butterfly
#7
Yoan Fourcade, Thomas Ranius, Erik Öckinger
Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future...
August 10, 2017: Journal of Animal Ecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28796807/modeling-vegetation-community-responses-to-sea-level-rise-on-barrier-island-systems-a-case-study-on-the-cape-canaveral-barrier-island-complex-florida-usa
#8
Tammy E Foster, Eric D Stolen, Carlton R Hall, Ronald Schaub, Brean W Duncan, Danny K Hunt, John H Drese
Society needs information about how vegetation communities in coastal regions will be impacted by hydrologic changes associated with climate change, particularly sea level rise. Due to anthropogenic influences which have significantly decreased natural coastal vegetation communities, it is important for us to understand how remaining natural communities will respond to sea level rise. The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex (CCBIC) on the east central coast of Florida is within one of the most biologically diverse estuarine systems in North America and has the largest number of threatened and endangered species on federal property in the contiguous United States...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28796442/total-environmental-impacts-of-biofuels-from-corn-stover-using-a-hybrid-life-cycle-assessment-lca-model-combining-process-lca-and-economic-input-output-lca
#9
Changqi Liu, Yaji Huang, Xinye Wang, Yang Tai, Lingqin Liu, Hao Liu
Studies on the environmental analysis of biofuels by fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (BFPH) have so far only focused on the environmental impacts from direct emissions and included few indirect emissions. The influence of ignoring some indirect emissions on the environmental performance of BFPH has not been well investigated and hence is not really understood. In addition, in order to avoid shifting environmental problems from one media to another, a comprehensive assessment of environmental impacts caused by the processes must quantify the environmental emissions to all media (air, water, and land) in relation to each life cycle stage...
August 10, 2017: Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28777816/disentangling-the-effects-of-a-century-of-eutrophication-and-climate-warming-on-freshwater-lake-fish-assemblages
#10
Peter C Jacobson, Gretchen J A Hansen, Bethany J Bethke, Timothy K Cross
Eutrophication and climate warming are profoundly affecting fish in many freshwater lakes. Understanding the specific effects of these stressors is critical for development of effective adaptation and remediation strategies for conserving fish populations in a changing environment. Ecological niche models that incorporated the individual effects of nutrient concentration and climate were developed for 25 species of fish sampled in standard gillnet surveys from 1,577 Minnesota lakes. Lake phosphorus concentrations and climates were hindcasted to a pre-disturbance period of 1896-1925 using existing land use models and historical temperature data...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28774563/adverse-events-following-live-attenuated-intranasal-influenza-vaccination-of-children-with-cystic-fibrosis-results-from-two-influenza-seasons
#11
Constantina Boikos, Lawrence Joseph, David Scheifele, Larry C Lands, Gaston De Serres, Jesse Papenburg, Nicholas Winters, Mark Chilvers, Caroline Quach
BACKGROUND: Despite the approved use of live-attenuated intranasal influenza vaccine (LAIV) for seasonal immunization of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF), many questions remain unanswered regarding the timing, duration, and types of adverse events that occur following administration of this vaccine. METHODS: In 2012 and 2013, 264 LAIV doses were administered to 198 patients aged 2-19 with CF. Vaccinees were followed prospectively for 55 days after vaccination (day 0) and information on adverse events was collected...
July 31, 2017: Vaccine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28771496/an-analytical-solution-for-two-dimensional-vacuum-preloading-combined-with-electro-osmosis-consolidation-using-ekg-electrodes
#12
Yang Shen, Chenchen Qiu, Yande Li, Wen Shi, Xiaoxi Rui
China is a country with vast territory, but economic development and population growth have reduced the usable land resources in recent years. Therefore, reclamation by pumping and filling is carried out in eastern coastal regions of China in order to meet the needs of urbanization. However, large areas of reclaimed land need rapid drainage consolidation treatment. Based on past researches on how to improve the treatment efficiency of soft clay using vacuum preloading combined with electro-osmosis, a two-dimensional drainage plane model was proposed according to the Terzaghi and Esrig consolidation theory...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28764399/fire-ice-water-and-dirt-a-simple-climate-model
#13
John Kroll
A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans...
July 2017: Chaos
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28763471/modeling-perceptions-of-climatic-risk-in-crop-production
#14
Evelyn Reinmuth, Phillip Parker, Joachim Aurbacher, Petra Högy, Stephan Dabbert
In agricultural production, land-use decisions are components of economic planning that result in the strategic allocation of fields. Climate variability represents an uncertainty factor in crop production. Considering yield impact, climatic influence is perceived during and evaluated at the end of crop production cycles. In practice, this information is then incorporated into planning for the upcoming season. This process contributes to attitudes toward climate-induced risk in crop production. In the literature, however, the subjective valuation of risk is modeled as a risk attitude toward variations in (monetary) outcomes...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28758162/individual-level-factors-associated-with-the-risk-of-acquiring-human-plasmodium-knowlesi-malaria-in-malaysia-a-case-control-study
#15
Matthew J Grigg, Jonathan Cox, Timothy William, Jenarun Jelip, Kimberly M Fornace, Patrick M Brock, Lorenz von Seidlein, Bridget E Barber, Nicholas M Anstey, Tsin W Yeo, Christopher J Drakeley
BACKGROUND: The emergence of human malaria due to the monkey parasite Plasmodium knowlesi threatens elimination efforts in southeast Asia. Changes in land use are thought to be driving the rise in reported P knowlesi cases, but the role of individual-level factors is unclear. To address this knowledge gap we assessed human and environmental factors associated with zoonotic knowlesi malaria risk. METHODS: We did this population-based case-control study over a 2 year period in the state of Sabah in Malaysia...
June 9, 2017: The Lancet. Planetary health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28757602/major-agricultural-changes-required-to-mitigate-phosphorus-losses-under-climate-change
#16
M C Ockenden, M J Hollaway, K J Beven, A L Collins, R Evans, P D Falloon, K J Forber, K M Hiscock, R Kahana, C J A Macleod, W Tych, M L Villamizar, C Wearing, P J A Withers, J G Zhou, P A Barker, S Burke, J E Freer, P J Johnes, M A Snell, B W J Surridge, P M Haygarth
Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers...
July 31, 2017: Nature Communications
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28752018/project-house-water-a-novel-interdisciplinary-framework-to-assess-the-environmental-and-socioeconomic-consequences-of-flood-related-impacts
#17
Sarah E Crawford, Catrina Brüll Nee Cofalla, Benedikt Aumeier, Markus Brinkmann, Elisa Classen, Verena Esser, Caroline Ganal, Elena Kaip, Roger Häussling, Frank Lehmkuhl, Peter Letmathe, Anne-Katrin Müller, Ilja Rabinovitch, Klaus Reicherter, Jan Schwarzbauer, Marco Schmitt, Georg Stauch, Matthias Wessling, Süleyman Yüce, Markus Hecker, Karen A Kidd, Rolf Altenburger, Werner Brack, Holger Schüttrumpf, Henner Hollert
Protecting our water resources in terms of quality and quantity is considered one of the big challenges of the twenty-first century, which requires global and multidisciplinary solutions. A specific threat to water resources, in particular, is the increased occurrence and frequency of flood events due to climate change which has significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts. In addition to climate change, flooding (or subsequent erosion and run-off) may be exacerbated by, or result from, land use activities, obstruction of waterways, or urbanization of floodplains, as well as mining and other anthropogenic activities that alter natural flow regimes...
2017: Environmental Sciences Europe
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28751749/soil-natural-capital-in-europe-a-framework-for-state-and-change-assessment
#18
David A Robinson, Panos Panagos, Pasquale Borrelli, Arwyn Jones, Luca Montanarella, Andrew Tye, Carl G Obst
Soils underpin our existence through food production and represent the largest terrestrial carbon store. Understanding soil state-and-change in response to climate and land use change is a major challenge. Our aim is to bridge the science-policy interface by developing a natural capital accounting structure for soil, for example, attempting a mass balance between soil erosion and production, which indicates that barren land, and woody crop areas are most vulnerable to potential soil loss. We test out our approach using earth observation, modelling and ground based sample data from the European Union's Land Use/Cover Area frame statistical Survey (LUCAS) soil monitoring program...
July 27, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28746381/hedgehogs-on-the-move-testing-the-effects-of-land-use-change-on-home-range-size-and-movement-patterns-of-free-ranging-ethiopian-hedgehogs
#19
Mohammad A Abu Baker, Nigel Reeve, April A T Conkey, David W Macdonald, Nobuyuki Yamaguchi
Degradation and alteration of natural environments because of agriculture and other land uses have major consequences on vertebrate populations, particularly on spatial organization and movement patterns. We used GPS tracking to study the effect of land use and sex on the home range size and movement of a typical model species, the Ethiopian hedgehogs. We used free-ranging hedgehogs from two areas with different land use practices: 24 from an area dominated by irrigated farms (12 ♂♂, 12 ♀♀) and 22 from a natural desert environment within a biosphere reserve (12 ♂♂, 10 ♀♀)...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28743283/spatial-population-dynamics-and-temporal-analysis-of-the-distribution-of-lutzomyia-longipalpis-lutz-neiva-1912-diptera-psychodidae-phlebotominae-in-the-city-of-clorinda-formosa-argentina
#20
Andrea Gómez-Bravo, Alba German, Marcelo Abril, Marcelo Scavuzzo, Oscar D Salomón
BACKGROUND: Lutzomyia longipalpis, the vector for the causal agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), has extended its distribution in the southern cone in the Americas. The first urban record of Lu. longipalpis in Argentina was from the City of Clorinda in 2004. The aim of this study was to analyse the monthly distribution and abundance of Lu. longipalpis and to evaluate its association with environmental and climatic variables in Clorinda City, Province of Formosa. METHODS: Phlebotominae sampling was performed using CDC light mini-traps that were placed in different sites of the city between January 2012 and December 2013...
July 25, 2017: Parasites & Vectors
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