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land change modeling

Duo Cui, Feng Tian, Yuwei Wang, Changshen Li, Chaoqing Yu, Le Yu
One signature of life on Earth is the vegetation red edge (VRE) feature of land plants, a dramatic change of reflectivity at wavelength near 0.7 μm. Potentially habitable planets around M dwarfs are tidally locked, which can limit the distribution of land plants. In this study, we used a biogeochemical model to investigate the distribution of land plants on potentially habitable planets around M dwarfs driven by climate data produced in a general circulation model (GCM). When considering the effects of clouds, the observation time needed for VRE detection on nearby p = 1 exoplanets around nearby M dwarfs is on the order of days using a 25 m(2) telescope if a large continent faces Earth during observations...
November 17, 2017: Astrobiology
Ana D Davidson, Kevin T Shoemaker, Ben Weinstein, Gabriel C Costa, Thomas M Brooks, Gerardo Ceballos, Volker C Radeloff, Carlo Rondinini, Catherine H Graham
Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates...
2017: PloS One
Emanuele Strano, Andrea Giometto, Saray Shai, Enrico Bertuzzo, Peter J Mucha, Andrea Rinaldo
Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length...
October 2017: Royal Society Open Science
Jialei Zhu, Joyce E Penner, Guangxing Lin, Cheng Zhou, Li Xu, Bingliang Zhuang
Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) nearly always exists as an internal mixture, and the distribution of this mixture depends on the formation mechanism of SOA. A model is developed to examine the influence of using an internal mixing state based on the mechanism of formation and to estimate the radiative forcing of SOA in the future. For the present day, 66% of SOA is internally mixed with sulfate, while 34% is internally mixed with primary soot. Compared with using an external mixture, the direct effect of SOA is decreased due to the decrease in total aerosol surface area and the increase of absorption efficiency...
November 13, 2017: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
D Richard Cameron, David C Marvin, Jonathan M Remucal, Michelle C Passero
Modeling efforts focused on future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy and other sectors in California have shown varying capacities to meet the emissions reduction targets established by the state. These efforts have not included potential reductions from changes in ecosystem management, restoration, and conservation. We examine the scale of contributions from selected activities in natural and agricultural lands and assess the degree to which these actions could help the state achieve its 2030 and 2050 climate mitigation goals under alternative implementation scenarios...
November 13, 2017: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Fanchao Xu, Chenhui Wei, Qingqing Zeng, Xuening Li, Pedro J J Alvarez, Qilin Li, Xiaolei Qu, Dongqiang Zhu
The fluvial export of dissolved black carbon (DBC) is a major land-ocean flux in the global black carbon cycle, affecting the size of refractory carbon pool in the oceans. The aggregation behavior of DBC is a significant determinant of its transport and vertical mass flux. In this study, the aggregation kinetics and interaction energy of DBC leached from biochar were investigated. DBC was mainly stabilized by hydration force and underwent structural compacting in divalent cation solutions. Na+ and Mg2+ had limited impact on the colloidal stability of DBC due to the strong hydration of these cations...
November 13, 2017: Environmental Science & Technology
Jessa H Thurman, David W Crowder, Tobin D Northfield
Global climate change is often expected to disrupt biological control. Predicting the effects of climate change on biological control, and identifying natural enemies that will thrive in future climate scenarios, is thus essential to ensure agricultural sustainability. To promote biological control under climate change, land managers should prioritise the conservation of natural enemy diversity to ensure some effective natural enemies are always present despite often-unpredictable climate scenarios. In addition, ecophysiological and habitat domain models should be combined to predict climate change-induced shifts in predation by diverse predator communities...
October 2017: Current Opinion in Insect Science
Xian Cheng, Liding Chen, Ranhao Sun, Peiru Kong
It is important to assess river ecosystem health in large-scale basins when considering the complex influence of anthropogenic activities on these ecosystems. This study investigated the river ecosystem health in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) by sampling 148 river sites during the pre- and post-rainy seasons in 2013. A model was established to assess the river ecosystem health based on water physicochemical, nutrient, and macroinvertebrate indices, and the health level was divided into "very poor," "poor," "fair," "good," and "excellent" according to the health score calculated from the assessment model...
November 8, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
Michel P Laforge, Nicole L Michel, Ryan K Brook
Large-scale climatic fluctuations have caused species range shifts. Moose (Alces alces) have expanded their range southward into agricultural areas previously not considered moose habitat. We found that moose expansion into agro-ecosystems is mediated by broad-scale climatic factors and access to high-quality forage (i.e., crops). We used crop damage records to quantify moose presence across the Canadian Prairies. We regressed latitude of crop damage against North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and crop area to test the hypotheses that NAO-mediated wetland recharge and occurrence of more nutritious crop types would result in more frequent occurrences of crop damage by moose at southerly latitudes...
November 9, 2017: Scientific Reports
Walter Svinurai, Farai Mapanda, Dingane Sithole, Elisha N Moyo, Kudzai Ndidzano, Alois Tsiga, Washington Zhakata
Without disregarding its role as one of the key sources of sustainable livelihoods in Zimbabwe and other developing countries, livestock production contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through enteric fermentation. For the livestock sector to complement global efforts to mitigate climate change, accurate estimations of GHG emissions are required. Methane emissions from enteric fermentation in Zimbabwe were quantified over 35years under four production systems and five agro-ecological regions...
November 6, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
David M Oliver, Phil J Bartie, A Louise Heathwaite, Sim M Reaney, Jared A Q Parnell, Richard S Quilliam
Effective management of diffuse microbial water pollution from agriculture requires a fundamental understanding of how spatial patterns of microbial pollutants, e.g. E. coli, vary over time at the landscape scale. The aim of this study was to apply the Visualising Pathogen &Environmental Risk (ViPER) model, developed to predict E. coli burden on agricultural land, in a spatially distributed manner to two contrasting catchments in order to map and understand changes in E. coli burden contributed to land from grazing livestock...
October 27, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
Linda R Stanley, Randall C Swaim, Joseph Keawe'aimoku Kaholokula, Kathleen J Kelly, Annie Belcourt, James Allen
Health disparities exact a devastating toll upon Indigenous people in the USA. However, there has been scant research investment to develop strategies to address these inequities in Indigenous health. We present a case for increased health promotion, prevention, and treatment research with Indigenous populations, providing context to the recent NIH investment in the Intervention Research to Improve Native American Health (IRINAH) network. We discuss the disproportionate costs and consequences of disparities borne by Indigenous groups, the limited evidence base on effective intervention for this population, how population uniqueness often makes transfer of existing intervention models difficult, and additional challenges in creating interventions for Indigenous settings...
November 6, 2017: Prevention Science: the Official Journal of the Society for Prevention Research
M Glendell, R Jones, J A J Dungait, K Meusburger, A C Schwendel, R Barclay, S Barker, S Haley, T A Quine, J Meersmans
Soils deliver crucial ecosystem services, such as climate regulation through carbon (C) storage and food security, both of which are threatened by climate and land use change. While soils are important stores of terrestrial C, anthropogenic impact on the lateral fluxes of C from land to water remains poorly quantified and not well represented in Earth system models. In this study, we tested a novel framework for tracing and quantifying lateral C fluxes from the terrestrial to the aquatic environment at a catchment scale...
October 26, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
César Terrer, Sara Vicca, Benjamin D Stocker, Bruce A Hungate, Richard P Phillips, Peter B Reich, Adrien C Finzi, I Colin Prentice
Contents Summary I. II. III. IV. References SUMMARY: Land ecosystems sequester on average about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. It has been proposed that nitrogen (N) availability will exert an increasingly limiting effect on plants' ability to store additional carbon (C) under rising CO2 , but these mechanisms are not well understood. Here, we review findings from elevated CO2 experiments using a plant economics framework, highlighting how ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 may depend on the costs and benefits of plant interactions with mycorrhizal fungi and symbiotic N-fixing microbes...
November 6, 2017: New Phytologist
Helen R P Phillips, Sandra Knapp, Andy Purvis
Background: With the increase in human population, and the growing realisation of the importance of urban biodiversity for human wellbeing, the ability to predict biodiversity loss or gain as a result of land use change within urban settings is important. Most models that link biodiversity and land use are at too coarse a scale for informing decisions, especially those related to planning applications. Using the grounds of the Natural History Museum, London, we show how methods used in global models can be applied to smaller spatial scales to inform urban planning...
2017: PeerJ
E Ruelle, L Delaby, M Wallace, L Shalloo
Determining the effect of a change in management on farm with differing characteristics is a significant challenge in the evaluation of dairy systems due to the interacting components of complex biological systems. In Ireland, milk production is increasing substantially following the abolition of the European Union milk quota regime in 2015. There are 2 main ways to increase the milk production on farm (within a fixed land base): either increase the number of animals (thus increasing the stocking rate) or increase the milk production per animal through increased feeding or increased lactation length...
November 2, 2017: Journal of Dairy Science
Qian Zhang
Derived from river monitoring data, concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships are useful indicators of riverine export dynamics. A top-down synthesis of C-Q patterns was conducted for suspended sediment (SS), total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) for nine major tributaries (15 monitoring sites) to Chesapeake Bay, which represent diverse characteristics in terms of land use, physiography, and hydrological settings. Model coefficients from the recently-developed Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method were used to make informative interpretation of C-Q relationships...
November 2, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
Catherine Linard, Caroline W Kabaria, Marius Gilbert, Andrew J Tatem, Andrea E Gaughan, Forrest R Stevens, Alessandro Sorichetta, Abdisalan M Noor, Robert W Snow
Large-scale gridded population datasets are usually produced for the year of input census data using a top-down approach and projected backward and forward in time using national growth rates. Such temporal projections do not include any subnational variation in population distribution trends and ignore changes in geographical covariates such as urban land cover changes. Improved predictions of population distribution changes over time require the use of a limited number of covariates that are time-invariant or temporally explicit...
October 3, 2017: Int J Digit Earth
Guangqing Chi, Hung Chak Ho
The past century has witnessed rapidly increasing population-land conflicts due to exponential population growth and its many consequences. Although the measures of population-land conflicts are many, there lacks a model that appropriately considers both the social and physical contexts of population-land conflicts. In this study we introduce the concept of population stress, which identifies areas with populations growing faster than the lands available for sustainable development. Specifically, population stress areas are identified by comparing population growth and land development as measured by land developability in the contiguous United States from 2001 to 2011...
January 2018: Land Use Policy
Yaoping Cui, Xiangming Xiao, Yao Zhang, Jinwei Dong, Yuanwei Qin, Russell B Doughty, Geli Zhang, Jie Wang, Xiaocui Wu, Yaochen Qin, Shenghui Zhou, Joanna Joiner, Berrien Moore
The gross primary production (GPP) of vegetation in urban areas plays an important role in the study of urban ecology. It is difficult however, to accurately estimate GPP in urban areas, mostly due to the complexity of impervious land surfaces, buildings, vegetation, and management. Recently, we used the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), climate data, and satellite images to estimate the GPP of terrestrial ecosystems including urban areas. Here, we report VPM-based GPP (GPPvpm) estimates for the world's ten most populous megacities during 2000-2014...
November 2, 2017: Scientific Reports
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