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land change modeling

Jing Zhang, Siyue Li, Ruozhu Dong, Changsheng Jiang
The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is one of the largest hydropower reservoirs in the world. However, changes of the important physical characteristics of the reservoir covering pre-, during-, and post- dam have not been well studied. This study analyzed the lengths and water surface areas of the TGR using advanced support vector machine method (SVM) combined Landsat images with the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM), which showed an increasing trend of lengths and surface areas with variable growth rates from pre-dam period to post-dam period...
March 15, 2018: Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
Christopher B Skinner, Christopher J Poulsen, Justin S Mankin
Plants influence extreme heat events by regulating land-atmosphere water and energy exchanges. The contribution of plants to changes in future heat extremes will depend on the responses of vegetation growth and physiology to the direct and indirect effects of elevated CO2 . Here we use a suite of earth system models to disentangle the radiative versus vegetation effects of elevated CO2 on heat wave characteristics. Vegetation responses to a quadrupling of CO2 increase summer heat wave occurrence by 20 days or more-30-50% of the radiative response alone-across tropical and mid-to-high latitude forests...
March 15, 2018: Nature Communications
Dominique Berteaux, Marylène Ricard, Martin-Hugues St-Laurent, Nicolas Casajus, Catherine Périé, Frieda Beauregard, Sylvie de Blois
The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas...
March 15, 2018: Scientific Reports
Cole Brokamp, Roman Jandarov, Monir Hossain, Patrick Ryan
The short-term and acute health effects of fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5 ) have highlighted the need for exposure assessment models with high spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we utilize satellite, meteorologic, atmospheric, and land-use data to train a random forest model capable of accurately predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations at a resolution of 1 × 1 km throughout an urban area encompassing seven counties. Unlike previous models based on aerosol optical density (AOD), we show that the missingness of AOD is an effective predictor of ground-level PM2...
March 14, 2018: Environmental Science & Technology
Addison Jobe, Ajay Kalra, Elise Ibendahl
Growing populations and industrialized agriculture practices have eradicated much of the United States wetlands along river floodplains. One program available for the restoration of floodplains is the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). The current research explores the effects CRP land change has on flooding zones, utilizing Flood Modeller and HEC-RAS. Flood Modeller is proven a viable tool for flood modeling within the United States when compared to HEC-RAS. Application of the software is used in the Nodaway River system located in the western halves of Iowa and Missouri to model effects of introducing new forest areas within the region...
March 10, 2018: Journal of Environmental Management
Heiliane de Brito Fontana, Caroline Ruschel, Elisa Dell'Antonio, Alessandro Haupenthal, Gustavo Soares Pereira, Helio Roesler
PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of cadence, immersion level as well as body density on the vertical component (Fymax ) of ground reaction force (GRF) during stationary running (SR). METHODS: In a controlled, laboratory study, thirty-two subjects ran at a wide range of cadences (85-210 steps/min) in water, immersed to the hip and to the chest, and on dry land. Fymax. was verified by a waterproof force measurement system and predicted based on a statistical model including cadence, immersion ratio and body density...
March 9, 2018: Human Movement Science
A-G E Ausseil, J R Dymond, L Newstrom
Honey bees require nectar and pollen from flowers: nectar for energy and pollen for growth. The demand for nectar and pollen varies during the year, with more pollen needed in spring for colony population growth, and more nectar needed in summer to sustain the maximum colony size and collect surplus nectar stores for winter. Sufficient bee forage is therefore necessary to ensure a healthy bee colony. Land-use changes can reduce the availability of floral resources suitable for bees, thereby increasing the susceptibility of bees to other stressors such as disease and pesticides...
March 12, 2018: Ecological Applications: a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
Valentin H Klaus, Till Kleinebecker, Verena Busch, Markus Fischer, Norbert Hölzel, Sascha Nowak, Daniel Prati, Deborah Schäfer, Ingo Schöning, Marion Schrumpf, Ute Hamer
The intensification of land use constitutes one of the main drivers of global change and alters nutrient fluxes on all spatial scales, causing landscape-level eutrophication and contamination of natural resources. Changes in soil nutrient concentrations are thus indicative for crucial environmental issues associated with intensive land use. We measured concentrations of NO3 -N, NH4 -N, P, K, Mg and Ca by using 1326 ion-exchange resin bags buried in 20 cm depth beneath the main root zone in 150 temperate grasslands...
March 11, 2018: Global Change Biology
Bano Mehdi, Bernhard Lehner, Ralf Ludwig
To develop meaningful land use scenarios, drivers that affect changes in the landscape are required. In this study, driving factors that influence farmers to change crops on their farm were determined. A questionnaire was administered to four independent groups of farmers who identified and ranked influencing factors pertaining to their choices of crops. The farmers were located in two mid-latitude agricultural watersheds (in Germany and Canada). The ranked influencing factors were used to develop a "farmer driven" scenario to 2040 in both watersheds...
March 8, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Chongwei Li, Yajuan Zhang, Gehendra Kharel, Chris B Zou
Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis...
March 9, 2018: Environmental Management
Mingsong Li, Linda A Hinnov, Chunju Huang, James G Ogg
In ancient hothouses lacking ice sheets, the origins of large, million-year (myr)-scale sea-level oscillations remain a mystery, challenging current models of sea-level change. To address this mystery, we develop a sedimentary noise model for sea-level changes that simultaneously estimates geologic time and sea level from astronomically forced marginal marine stratigraphy. The noise model involves two complementary approaches: dynamic noise after orbital tuning (DYNOT) and lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient (ρ1 )...
March 8, 2018: Nature Communications
Sam Clifford, Mandana Mazaheri, Farhad Salimi, Wafaa Nabil Ezz, Bijan Yeganeh, Samantha Low-Choy, Katy Walker, Kerrie Mengersen, Guy B Marks, Lidia Morawska
It is known that ultrafine particles (UFP, particles smaller than 0.1 μm) can penetrate deep into the lungs and potentially have adverse health effects. However, epidemiological data on the health effects of UFP is limited. Therefore, our objective was to test the hypothesis that exposure to UFPs is associated with respiratory health status and systemic inflammation among children aged 8 to 11 years. We conducted a cross-sectional study among 655 children (43.3% male) attending 25 primary (elementary) schools in the Brisbane Metropolitan Area, Australia...
March 4, 2018: Environment International
Martin Luquet, Maurice Hullé, Jean-Christophe Simon, Nicolas Parisey, Christelle Buchard, Bruno Jaloux
Insect populations are prone to respond to global changes through shifts in phenology, distribution and abundance. However, global changes cover several factors such as climate and land use, the relative importance of these being largely unknown. Here, we aim at disentangling the effects of climate, land use and geographical drivers on aphid abundance and phenology in France, at a regional scale and over the last 40 years. We used aerial data obtained from suction traps between 1978 and 2015 on five aphid species varying in their degree of specialization to legumes, along with climate, legume crop area and geographical data...
March 7, 2018: Insect Science
Jonathan S Lefcheck, Robert J Orth, William C Dennison, David J Wilcox, Rebecca R Murphy, Jennifer Keisman, Cassie Gurbisz, Michael Hannam, J Brooke Landry, Kenneth A Moore, Christopher J Patrick, Jeremy Testa, Donald E Weller, Richard A Batiuk
Humans strongly impact the dynamics of coastal systems, yet surprisingly few studies mechanistically link management of anthropogenic stressors and successful restoration of nearshore habitats over large spatial and temporal scales. Such examples are sorely needed to ensure the success of ecosystem restoration efforts worldwide. Here, we unite 30 consecutive years of watershed modeling, biogeochemical data, and comprehensive aerial surveys of Chesapeake Bay, United States to quantify the cascading effects of anthropogenic impacts on submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV), an ecologically and economically valuable habitat...
March 5, 2018: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Subhasis Giri, Zeyuan Qiu, Zhen Zhang
Understanding the relationship between land use and water quality is essential to improve water quality through carefully managing landscape change. This study applies a linear mixed model at both watershed and hydrologically sensitive areas (HSAs) scales to assess such a relationship in 28 northcentral New Jersey watersheds located in a rapidly urbanizing region in the United States. Two models differ in terms of the geographic scope used to derive land use matrices that quantify land use conditions. The land use matrices at the watershed and HSAs scales represent the land use conditions in these watersheds and their HSAs, respectively...
March 1, 2018: Journal of Environmental Management
Jing Yu, Ling-Ling Pei
By employing the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution methodology, this paper models and analyzes a brownfield conflict that occurred at the Changzhou Foreign Language School in Jiangsu, China, in 2016. This conflict made national headlines when news reports revealed that a large number of students and staff suffered from health issues after the school moved to a new site that is built on recently restored land adjacent to the original "Chang Long Chemical" block. Since stakeholders in the conflict hold different strengths of preference, a new option prioritization technique is employed to elicit both crisp preferences and the strength of preferences for the decision-makers (DMs) in the conflict...
February 24, 2018: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Benjamin J Dittbrenner, Michael M Pollock, Jason W Schilling, Julian D Olden, Joshua J Lawler, Christian E Torgersen
Through their dam-building activities and subsequent water storage, beaver have the potential to restore riparian ecosystems and offset some of the predicted effects of climate change by modulating streamflow. Thus, it is not surprising that reintroducing beaver to watersheds from which they have been extirpated is an often-used restoration and climate-adaptation strategy. Identifying sites for reintroduction, however, requires detailed information about habitat factors-information that is not often available at broad spatial scales...
2018: PloS One
Manuel Wolff, Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase
Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics...
2018: PloS One
Peter Alexander, Sam Rabin, Peter Anthoni, Roslyn Henry, Thomas A M Pugh, Mark D A Rounsevell, Almut Arneth
Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) levels changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that captures spatial variations...
February 27, 2018: Global Change Biology
Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Gerhard Krinner, Shushi Peng, Nicolas Viovy, Josep Peñuelas, Sergey Zimov
Large herbivores are a major agent in ecosystems, influencing vegetation structure, and carbon and nutrient flows. During the last glacial period, a mammoth steppe ecosystem prevailed in the unglaciated northern lands, supporting a high diversity and density of megafaunal herbivores. The apparent discrepancy between abundant megafauna and the expected low vegetation productivity under a generally harsher climate with a lower CO2 concentration, termed the productivity paradox, requires large-scale quantitative analysis using process-based ecosystem models...
February 26, 2018: Nature Ecology & Evolution
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