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Black swans

Ernest N Ogbozor, Mara L Schoeny, Andrew Baer
International law and minimum standards provide certain protection for detainees and prisoners of war (POW) against torture and ill-treatment. Places of detention and parties to conflicts are often monitored to ensure that they adhere to the required standards through, for example, visits to individual detainees and the assessment of facilities. However, monitoring between the point of arrest and eventual remand in prisons is largely inadequate. This paper explains an emerging model to enhance protection of prisoners through readiness training for prospective humanitarian personnel...
2017: Torture: Quarterly Journal on Rehabilitation of Torture Victims and Prevention of Torture
Damian Roland
"Black Swans", originally described as an economic theory, are unexpected events whose potential to occur only becomes apparent after they have happened. The concept is very relevant to the practice of Emergency Medicine and this article explores how black swans impact on emergency care and how staff unconsciously aim to mitigate against them.
May 12, 2017: Emergency Medicine Journal: EMJ
C Michael Dunham, Gregory S Huang
We delineated the incidence of trauma patient pulmonary embolism (PE) and risk conditions by performing a systematic literature review of those at risk for deep vein thrombosis (DVT). The PE proportion was 1.4 per cent (95% confidence interval = 1.2-1.6) in at-risk patients. Of 10 conditions, PE was only associated with increased age (P < 0.01) or leg injury (P < 0.01; risk ratio = 1.6). As lower extremity DVT (LEDVT) proportions increased, mortality proportions (P = 0.02) and hospital stay (P = 0.0002) increased, but PE proportions did not (P = 0...
April 1, 2017: American Surgeon
Beate West-Leuer
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
March 24, 2017: International Journal of Psycho-analysis
Sean C Anderson, Trevor A Branch, Andrew B Cooper, Nicholas K Dulvy
Black swans are improbable events that nonetheless occur-often with profound consequences. Such events drive important transitions in social systems (e.g., banking collapses) and physical systems (e.g., earthquakes), and yet it remains unclear the extent to which ecological population numbers buffer or suffer from such extremes. Here, we estimate the prevalence and direction of black-swan events (heavy-tailed process noise) in 609 animal populations after accounting for population dynamics (productivity, density dependence, and typical stochasticity)...
March 21, 2017: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
F J Valesini, A Cottingham, C S Hallett, K R Clarke
This study examined inter-period changes over two to three decades in the fish fauna of an urbanized estuary experiencing rapid population growth and a drying climate (Swan-Canning Estuary, Western Australia). Responses were compared at the fish community level (species composition; 1978-2009 in the shallows and 1993-2009 in deeper waters) and at the population and individual levels of an estuarine indicator species, black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri (biomass-abundance and per capita mass at age, respectively; 1993-2009)...
May 2017: Journal of Fish Biology
Edyta Świętoń, Krzysztof Wyrostek, Michał Jóźwiak, Monika Olszewska-Tomczyk, Katarzyna Domańska-Blicharz, Włodzimierz Meissner, Radosław Włodarczyk, Piotr Minias, Tomasz Janiszewski, Zenon Minta, Krzysztof Śmietanka
We tested wild birds in Poland during 2008-15 for avian influenza virus (AIV). We took 10,312 swabs and feces samples from 6,314 live birds representing 12 orders and 84 bird species, mostly from orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes, for testing and characterization by various PCR methods. From PCR-positive samples, we attempted to isolate and subtype the virus. The RNA of AIV was detected in 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-2.1%) of birds represented by 48 Mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ), 11 Mute Swans ( Cygnus olor ), 48 Common Teals ( Anas crecca ), three Black-headed Gulls (Chroicocephalus ridibundus), one Common Coot ( Fulica atra ), one Garganey (Spatula querquedula), and one unidentified bird species...
April 2017: Journal of Wildlife Diseases
Christine L Berner, Andrea Staid, Roger Flage, Seth D Guikema
Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans...
December 29, 2016: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Angelia Sebok, Christopher D Wickens
OBJECTIVE: The objectives were to (a) implement theoretical perspectives regarding human-automation interaction (HAI) into model-based tools to assist designers in developing systems that support effective performance and (b) conduct validations to assess the ability of the models to predict operator performance. BACKGROUND: Two key concepts in HAI, the lumberjack analogy and black swan events, have been studied extensively. The lumberjack analogy describes the effects of imperfect automation on operator performance...
March 2017: Human Factors
Joyce T Bromberger, Howard M Kravitz, Ada Youk, Laura L Schott, Hadine Joffe
BACKGROUND: Little is known about the course of depression in midlife women. This study aims to identify factors that distinguish risk factors for persistent or recurrent depression from those of a milder course across 13-years of follow-up. METHODS: 297 Black and White premenopausal women aged 42-52 were enrolled at the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation Pittsburgh site. Psychiatric interviews obtained information on lifetime psychiatric diagnoses at baseline and occurrences of depression annually...
December 2016: Journal of Affective Disorders
Lirong Wang, Yongjun Dong, Sanhu Wang, Li Li, Xianghui Kong, Aijun Lv
A strain of bacteria was isolated from the diseased black swan (Cygnus atratus) died from enteritis diarrhea, and designated tentatively as B-1 strain. Morphological and biochemical tests, as well as phylogenetic analysis derived from 16S rRNA and fimC gene sequencing both strongly indicated that B-1 strain is identical to Escherichia coli. Furthermore, the polymerase chain reaction single-strand conformation polymorphism (PCR-SSCP) profile of the isolate was different from that of two reference strains. Antibiotic sensitivity testing of B-1 strain was carried out by the standard Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion method...
September 2016: Microbial Pathogenesis
Daniel H Solomon, Kristine Ruppert, Gail A Greendale, Yinjuan Lian, Faith Selzer, Joel S Finkelstein
BACKGROUND: Medication utilization and costs increased over the last decade, but the effects of race/ethnicity have never been well studied in longitudinal data. We analyzed reports of prescription medication use to (1) identify trajectories of use and (2) determine predictors associated with a large increase in use. Specifically, variations in medication use by race/ethnicity were examined. METHODS: We analyzed the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation cohort with a median of 14 years of follow-up...
June 2016: Journal of Women's Health
Bonnie C Swan, Mei M Tam, Claire L Higgins, Rosemary L Nixon
We report a case of a 50-year-old lady with allergic contact dermatitis to para-phenylenediamine, who in her quest to find a substitute hair dye, subsequently reacted to a number of plant-based hair dyes, including pure henna, black tea and indigo powder respectively. While these substances all contain tannins, testing to possible constituents tannic acid and gallic acid was negative.
August 2016: Australasian Journal of Dermatology
Kristin M Sinclair, Michelle G Hawkins, Lewis Wright, Richard P Chin, Sean D Owens, David Sanchez-Migallon Guzman, Michael S Kent, H L Shivaprasad BVSc
An asymptomatic 14-year old, male black swan ( Cygnus atratus ) housed at a zoological institution was presented for routine preshipment examination. Hematologic findings indicated that the bird had a severe lymphocytic leukocytosis, consistent with chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Radiographs showed the presence of multiple soft tissue masses within the caudal coelomic cavity; ultrasound showed one mass to be an enlarged spleen, a cystic mass near the gonads, and a mass suspected to be associated with the ventriculus...
December 2015: Journal of Avian Medicine and Surgery
F D Sánchez, I J Yela, E Alfonseca, J Campuzano, E Morales, C Aguilar
A 3-year-old male black swan (Cygnus atratus), belonging to a private collection, died suddenly and was subjected to post mortem examination. At necropsy, caseous exudate was observed in the lungs and air sacs; granulomatous lesions characterized by epithelioid macrophages and abundant mycobacteria were observed microscopically. Avian tuberculosis associated with Mycobacterium bovis was confirmed by bacteriologic isolation, biochemical tests and molecular methods. The organism was identified as spoligotype SB0140, which is frequently found in cattle and people in North America...
2016: Avian Pathology: Journal of the W.V.P.A
Wouter F D van Dongen, Randall W Robinson, Michael A Weston, Raoul A Mulder, Patrick-Jean Guay
BACKGROUND: Interactions between wildlife and humans are increasing. Urban animals are often less wary of humans than their non-urban counterparts, which could be explained by habituation, adaptation or local site selection. Under local site selection, individuals that are less tolerant of humans are less likely to settle in urban areas. However, there is little evidence for such temperament-based site selection, and even less is known about its underlying genetic basis. We tested whether site selection in urban and non-urban habitats by black swans (Cygnus atratus) was associated with polymorphisms in two genes linked to fear in animals, the dopamine receptor D4 (DRD4) and serotonin transporter (SERT) genes...
2015: BMC Evolutionary Biology
Fernando Muñoz Zúñiga
INTRODUCTION: Different forms of artistic expression, such as literature and cinema, constitute an inexhaustible source for the study of mental illness. The use of psychodynamic models may contribute to a better understanding of the spectrum between personality disorders and the psychosis spectrum, thus enriching the phenomenological approach in the psychiatric clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: To examine from psychodynamic standpoints the main character of the American film Black Swan, and the nature of her psychotic symptoms...
September 2012: Revista Colombiana de Psiquiatría
M L Agüero, C Gilardoni, F Cremonte, J I Diaz
The present study focuses on the nematode community in the stomachs of three sympatric anatid bird species from the Central Patagonian coast, Argentina. The bird species include the Chubut steamer duck, Tachyeres leucocephalus, the crested duck, Lophonetta specularioides, and the black-necked swan, Cygnus melancoryphus. Up to 138 nematodes representing five species were recovered from 10 of the 13 ducks examined, with an overall prevalence of 77% and a mean intensity of 13.8. Nematodes isolated from the gizzard were Streptocara formosensis and Sciadiocara legendrei (Acuariidae) in T...
November 2016: Journal of Helminthology
Tobias A Mattei
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
December 2015: World Neurosurgery
Ryan McKay
Parrott and Koralus argue that a particular cognitive factor--"impaired endogenous question raising"--offers a parsimonious account of three delusion-related phenomena: (1) the development of the Capgras delusion; (2) evidence that patients with schizophrenia outperform healthy control participants on a conditional reasoning task; and (3) evidence that deluded individuals "jump to conclusions". In this response, I assess these claims, and raise my own questions about the "erotetic" theory of delusional thinking...
2015: Cognitive Neuropsychiatry
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