Model decision analysis

BACKGROUND: In the global strategy to eliminate leprosy, there remains a need for early case detection to successfully interrupt transmissions. Poor knowledge about leprosy and leprosy-related stigma are key drivers of delayed diagnosis and treatment. Sensitization campaigns to inform and increase awareness among the general population are an integral part of many national neglected tropical disease programs. Despite their importance, the effectiveness of such campaigns has not been rigorously studied in the West African context...

BACKGROUND: Antenatal care (ANC) is one of the recommended interventions to reduce stillbirth, maternal, neonatal, and child mortality through early identification and management of pregnancy complications or pre-existing conditions. Although increasing number of ANC is a key priority of the 2016 WHO recommendations, ANC uptake in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) is insufficient. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate factors associated with the number of ANC contacts in LMICs...

This paper mainly addressed the study of the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and analysed the effect of two different types of viruses simultaneously that cause immunodeficiency in the host. The two infectious diseases that often spread in the populace are HIV and measles. The interaction between measles and HIV can cause severe illness and even fatal patient cases. The effects of the measles virus on the host with HIV infection are studied using a mathematical model and their dynamics. Analysing the dynamics of infectious diseases in communities requires the use of mathematical models...

The existence of large volumes of data has considerably alleviated concerns regarding the availability of sufficient data instances for machine learning experiments. Nevertheless, in certain contexts, addressing limited data availability may demand distinct strategies and efforts. Analyzing COVID-19 predictions at pandemic beginning emerged a question: how much data is needed to make reliable predictions? When does the volume of data provide a better understanding of the disease's evolution and, in turn, offer reliable forecasts? Given these questions, the objective of this study is to analyze learning curves obtained from predicting the incidence of COVID-19 in Brazilian States using ARIMA models with limited available data...

Rice, being a staple food in many countries, necessitates the identification of reliable suppliers to ensure a steady supply. Consequently, it is vital to establish trustworthy vendors for various types of this essential grain who can meet stringent product quality standards. This study aims to identify, analyze, rank, and select primary rice suppliers. The study emphasizes the importance of selecting and managing suitable providers to meet customer demands, proposes a ranking model for rice suppliers, and introduces developed fuzzy MCDM techniques...

The identification of EEG biomarkers to discriminate Subjective Cognitive Decline (SCD) from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) conditions is a complex task which requires great clinical effort and expertise. We exploit the self-attention component of the Transformer architecture to obtain physiological explanations of the model's decisions in the discrimination of 56 SCD and 45 MCI patients using resting-state EEG. Specifically, an interpretability workflow leveraging attention scores and time-frequency analysis of EEG epochs through Continuous Wavelet Transform is proposed...

IMPORTANCE: Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is one of the most common childhood cancers in sub-Saharan Africa and is etiologically linked to malaria. However, evidence for an effect of malaria interventions on BL is limited. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential population-level association between large-scale rollout of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) in sub-Saharan Africa in the 2000s and BL incidence. DATA SOURCES: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, a search was conducted in the Embase, Global Health, and Medline databases and in cancer registry publications between January 1, 1990, and February 27, 2023...

Previous studies have shown that the growth status of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) predisposes to rupture. This study aimed to construct a nomogram for predicting the growth of small IAs based on geometric and hemodynamic parameters. We retrospectively collected the baseline and follow-up angiographic images (CTA/ MRA) of 96 small untreated saccular IAs, created patient-specific vascular models and performed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Geometric and hemodynamic parameters were calculated...

PURPOSE: Prior data have demonstrated relationships between patient characteristics, the use of surgery to treat lung cancer, and the timeliness of treatment. Our study examines whether these relationships were observable in 2019 in patients with Medicare Advantage health plans being treated for lung cancer. METHODS: Claims data pertaining to patients with Medicare Advantage health plans who had received radiation therapy (RT) or surgery to treat lung cancer within 90 days of diagnostic imaging were extracted...

PURPOSE: To analyze if, after implementation of an evidence-based local multidisciplinary protocol for acute cholecystitis (AC), an intermediate surgical audit could improve early cholecystectomy (EC) rate and other therapeutic indicators. METHODS: Longitudinal cohort study at a tertiary center. The local protocol, promoted, created, and periodically revised by the Acute Care Surgery Unit (ACSu) was updated and approved on March 2019. A specific registry was prospectively fulfilled with demographics, comorbidity, type of presentation, diagnostic items, therapeutic decision, and clinical course, considering both non-operative management (NOM) or cholecystectomy, early and delayed (EC and DC)...

Early recognition of bloodstream infection (BSI) in infants can be difficult, as symptoms may be non-specific, and culture can take up to 48 h. As a result, many infants receive unneeded antibiotic treatment while awaiting the culture results. In this study, we aimed to develop a model that can reliably identify infants who do not have positive blood cultures (and, by extension, BSI) based on the full blood count (FBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) values. Several models (i.e. multivariable logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, K nearest neighbors, support vector machine, random forest model and decision tree) were trained using FBC and CRP values of 2693 infants aged 7 to 60 days with suspected BSI between 2005 and 2022 in a tertiary paediatric hospital in Dublin, Ireland...

Purpose: In 2005, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a decision memorandum regarding nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). The memorandum recommended the withdrawal of certain NSAIDs due to potential cardiovascular adverse effects. It highlighted the issue of cardiovascular risk associated with NSAIDs as a class. The NSAID medication guide includes a wide range of adverse drug reactions (ADRs), such as increased blood pressure, liver failure, allergic reactions, heart attack, and intestinal bleeding...

BACKGROUND: Bisphosphonates are a class of medication commonly used to treat osteoporosis. Alendronate is recommended as the first-line treatment; however, long-term adherence (both treatment compliance and persistence) is poor. Alternative bisphosphonates are available, which can be given intravenously and have been shown to improve long-term adherence. However, the most clinically effective and cost-effective alternative bisphosphonate regimen remains unclear. What is the most cost-effective bisphosphonate in clinical trials may not be the most cost-effective or acceptable to patients in everyday clinical practice...

BACKGROUND: Pharmacological prophylaxis during hospital admission can reduce the risk of acquired blood clots (venous thromboembolism) but may cause complications, such as bleeding. Using a risk assessment model to predict the risk of blood clots could facilitate selection of patients for prophylaxis and optimise the balance of benefits, risks and costs. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify validated risk assessment models and estimate their prognostic accuracy, evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for selecting hospitalised patients for prophylaxis, assess the feasibility of using efficient research methods and estimate key parameters for future research...

BACKGROUND: The economic burden of chronic psychotic disorders is substantial. However, few studies have employed an incidence based approach to estimate the economic burden of chronic psychotic disorders. Furthermore, the existing work has mainly used models populated with data obtained from published literature, making several assumptions to estimate incidence-based costs. AIMS OF THE STUDY: The objective of this study was to estimate the direct cumulative mean health care costs of chronic psychotic disorders, using an incidence-based, cost-of-illness approach and real-world data from a single-payer health care system...

BACKGROUND: Dengue poses a considerable public health threat in Saudi Arabia, with escalating outbreaks in Jazan, where seasonal rains create ideal mosquito breeding conditions. Elucidating local epidemiological dynamics is imperative to strengthen evidence-based prevention policies. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal, demographic, and meteorological patterns of dengue in Jazan from 2015-2020. METHODS: This retrospective cross-sectional study utilized surveillance records for 3427 confirmed dengue cases...

Research Highlight: Christian, M., Oosthuizen, W. C., Bester, M. N., & de Bruyn, P. N. (2024). Robustly estimating the demographic contribution of immigration: Simulation, sensitivity analysis and seals. Journal of Animal Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14053. Immigration can have profound consequences for local population dynamics and demography, but collecting data to accurately quantifying it is challenging. The recent rise of integrated population models (IPMs) offers an alternative by making it possible to estimate immigration without the need for explicit data, and to quantify its contribution to population dynamics through transient Life Table Response Experiments (tLTREs)...

OBJECTIVES: To apply machine learning to extract radiomics features from thyroid two-dimensional ultrasound (2D-US) combined with contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) images to classify and predict benign and malignant thyroid nodules, classified according to the Chinese version of the thyroid imaging reporting and data system (C-TIRADS) as category 4. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 313 pathologically diagnosed thyroid nodules (203 malignant and 110 benign)...

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to identify independent risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) in a population with hyperuricemia (HUA) and develop a CAS risk prediction model. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 3579 HUA individuals who underwent health examinations, including carotid ultrasonography, at the Zhenhai Lianhua Hospital in Ningbo, China, in 2020. All participants were randomly assigned to the training and internal validation sets in a 7:3 ratio...

PURPOSE: This study aims to conduct a comprehensive cost-effectiveness comparison between novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) and warfarin in Chinese patients with left ventricular thrombosis (LVT). By incorporating the impact of volume-based procurement (VBP) policy for pharmaceuticals in China, this analysis intends to provide crucial insights for informed healthcare decision-making. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A Markov model was employed to simulate the disease progression of LVT over a 54-week time horizon, using weekly cycles and six mutually exclusive health states...