Causal inference

AbstractThe nonrandom association between landscape characteristics and the dominant life history strategies observed in species pools is a typical pattern in nature. Here, we argue that these associations determine predictable changes in the relative importance of assembly mechanisms along broadscale geographic gradients (i.e., the geographic context of metacommunity dynamics). To demonstrate that, we employed simulation models in which groups of species with the same initial distribution of niche breadths and dispersal abilities interacted across a wide range of landscapes with contrasting characteristics...

Grade IV glioma, formerly known as glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is the most aggressive and lethal type of brain tumor, and its treatment remains challenging in part due to extensive interpatient heterogeneity in disease driving mechanisms and lack of prognostic and predictive biomarkers. Using mechanistic inference of node-edge relationship (MINER), we have analyzed multiomics profiles from 516 patients and constructed an atlas of causal and mechanistic drivers of interpatient heterogeneity in GBM (gbmMINER)...

BACKGROUND: Observational studies and some experimental investigations have indicated that gut microbiota are closely associated with the incidence and progression of chronic renal failure. However, the causal relationship between gut microbiota and chronic renal failure remains unclear. The present study employs a two-sample Mendelian randomization approach to infer the causal relationship between gut microbiota and chronic renal failure at the genetic level. This research aims to determine whether there is a causal effect of gut microbiota on the risk of chronic renal failure, aiming to provide new evidence to support targeted gut therapy for the treatment of chronic renal failure...

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have reported an association between the gut microbiota (GM) and hyperemesis gravidarum (HG). However, the causal relationship is unclear. In this study, Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to infer causal relationships between GM and HG. METHODS: Inverse-variance weighted MR was performed using summary statistics for genetic variants from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Sensitivity analyses were performed to validate the MR results and assess the robustness of the causal inference...

BACKGROUND: Most existing clinical prediction models do not allow predictions under interventions. Such predictions allow predicted risk under different proposed strategies to be compared and are therefore useful to support clinical decision making. We aimed to compare methodological approaches for predicting individual level cardiovascular risk under three interventions: smoking cessation, reducing blood pressure, and reducing cholesterol. METHODS: We used data from the PREDICT prospective cohort study in New Zealand to calculate cardiovascular risk in a primary care setting...

Background: The decline in muscle strength and function with aging is well recognized, but remains poorly characterized at the molecular level. Here, we report the epigenetic relationship between genome-wide DNA methylation and handgrip strength (HGS) among Chinese monozygotic (MZ) twins. Methods: DNA methylation (DNAm) profiling was conducted in whole blood samples through Reduced Representation Bisulfite Sequencing method. Generalized estimating equation was applied to regress the DNAm of each CpG with HGS...

Monogenic disorders account for a large proportion of population-attributable risk for neurodevelopmental disabilities. However, the data necessary to infer a causal relationship between a given genetic variant and a particular neurodevelopmental disorder is often lacking. Recognizing this scientific roadblock, 13 Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities Research Centers (IDDRCs) formed a consortium to create the Brain Gene Registry (BGR), a repository pairing clinical genetic data with phenotypic data from participants with variants in putative brain genes...

This article presents a causal inference analysis of vaccine hesitancy for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines based on socio-demographic data obtained via questionnaires applied to a sample of the Brazilian population. This data includes the respondents' political preferences, age group, education, salary range, country region, sex, believing fake news, vaccine confidence, and intention to get the COVID-19 vaccine. The research created a causal graph using these variables, seeking to answer questions about the probability of people getting vaccinated...

Applications of causal techniques to neural time series have increased extensively over last decades, including a wide and diverse family of methods focusing on electroencephalogram (EEG) analysis. Besides connectivity inferred in defined frequency bands, there is a growing interest in the analysis of cross-frequency interactions, in particular phase and amplitude coupling and directionality. Some studies show contradicting results of coupling directionality from high frequency to low frequency signal components, in spite of generally considered modulation of a high-frequency amplitude by a low-frequency phase...

OBJECTIVE: Depression and anxiety, prevalent coexisting mood disorders, pose a clinical challenge in accurate differentiation, hindering effective healthcare interventions. This research addressed this gap by employing a streamlined Symptom Checklist 90 (SCL-90) designed to minimize patient response burden. Utilizing machine learning algorithms, the study sought to construct classification models capable of distinguishing between depression and anxiety. METHODS: The study included 4262 individuals currently experiencing depression alone (n = 2998), anxiety alone (n = 716), or both depression and anxiety (n = 548)...

Inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) is a mainstay treatment for controlling asthma and preventing exacerbations in patients with persistent asthma. Many types of ICS drugs are used, either alone or in combination with other controller medications. Despite the widespread use of ICSs, asthma control remains suboptimal in many people with asthma. Suboptimal control leads to recurrent exacerbations, causes frequent ER visits and inpatient stays, and is due to multiple factors. One such factor is the inappropriate ICS choice for the patient...

Regression calibration as developed by Rosner, Spiegelman, and Willett is used to adjust the bias in effect estimates due to measurement error in continuous exposures. The method involves two models: a measurement error model relating the mismeasured exposure to the true (or gold-standard) exposure and an outcome model relating the mismeasured exposure to the outcome. However, no comprehensive guidance exists for determining which covariates should be included in each model. In this article, we investigate the selection of the minimal and most efficient covariate adjustment sets under a causal inference framework...

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BACKGROUND: Genomes are inherently inhomogeneous, with features such as base composition, recombination, gene density, and gene expression varying along chromosomes. Evolutionary, biological, and biomedical analyses aim to quantify this variation, account for it during inference procedures, and ultimately determine the causal processes behind it. Since sequential observations along chromosomes are not independent, it is unsurprising that autocorrelation patterns have been observed e.g...

BACKGROUND: Traditional epidemiological evidence suggests various associations exist between alcohol and mental/cognitive health outcomes. However, whether these reflect causal relationships remains unclear. Mendelian randomization (MR) - a kind of instrumental variable analysis using genetic variants to proxy for an exposure of interest - has the potential to improve causal inference from observational data. SUMMARY: In the first part of this review, the challenges of causal inference in the field are discussed, and a theoretical and practical introduction to the technique of MR is given...

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Emerging evidence has raised an obesity paradox in observational studies of body mass index (BMI) and health among the oldest-old (aged ≥80 years), as an inverse relationship of BMI with mortality was reported. This study was to investigate the causal associations of BMI, waist circumference (WC), or both with mortality in the oldest-old people in China. METHODS: A total of 5306 community-based oldest-old (mean age 90.6 years) were enrolled in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) between 1998 and 2018...

Incidence of conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) in Zimbabwe is >30-fold higher than the global average. cSCC risk is notably higher among people with human immunodeficiency virus, implicating impaired immune response and a yet unknown infectious etiology. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded blocks from Zimbabwe, comprising conjunctival precancer (n = 78), invasive cSCC cases (n = 148) and nonmalignant eye lesions (n = 119), were tested for multiple DNA viruses using Luminex bead-based technology. Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) type 1 positivity was strongly associated with cSCC diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5...

BACKGROUND: Several observational studies suggest a possible link between lipid-lowering drugs and allergic diseases. However, inferring causality from these studies can be challenging due to issues such as bias, reverse causation, and residual confounding. To investigate the potential causal effect of lipid-lowering drugs, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors and 3-hydroxy-3-methyl-glutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR) inhibitors, on allergic diseases (allergic asthma, allergic conjunctivitis, atopic dermatitis, allergic rhinitis, and allergic urticaria), we performed a Mendelian randomization (MR)-based study...

We consider estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome measured on subjects tested both before and after treatment assignment in observational studies. A vast literature compares the competing approaches of modelling the post-test score conditionally on the pre-test score versus modelling the difference, namely, the gain score. Our contribution lies in analyzing the merits and drawbacks of two approaches in a multilevel setting. This is relevant in many fields, such as education, where students are nested within schools...

BACKGROUND: Microbial genomes are largely comprised of protein coding sequences, yet some genomes contain many pseudogenes caused by frameshifts or internal stop codons. These pseudogenes are believed to result from gene degradation during evolution but could also be technical artifacts of genome sequencing or assembly. RESULTS: Using a combination of observational and experimental data, we show that many putative pseudogenes are attributable to errors that are incorporated into genomes during assembly...