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Bayesian probability diagnosis

Benjamin Margolin Rottman
Whether humans can accurately make decisions in line with Bayes' rule has been one of the most important yet contentious topics in cognitive psychology. Though a number of paradigms have been used for studying Bayesian updating, rarely have subjects been allowed to use their own preexisting beliefs about the prior and the likelihood. A study is reported in which physicians judged the posttest probability of a diagnosis for a patient vignette after receiving a test result, and the physicians' posttest judgments were compared to the normative posttest calculated from their own beliefs in the sensitivity and false positive rate of the test (likelihood ratio) and prior probability of the diagnosis...
October 17, 2016: Memory & Cognition
Matthias Benndorf, Jakob Neubauer, Mathias Langer, Elmar Kotter
PURPOSE: In the diagnostic process of primary bone tumors, patient age, tumor localization and to a lesser extent sex affect the differential diagnosis. We therefore aim to develop a pretest probability calculator for primary malignant bone tumors based on population data taking these variables into account. METHODS: We access the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute, 2015 release) database and analyze data of all primary malignant bone tumors diagnosed between 1973 and 2012...
October 8, 2016: International Journal of Computer Assisted Radiology and Surgery
Cláudia Camila Dias, Pedro Pereira Rodrigues, Rosa Coelho, Paula Moura Santos, Samuel Fernandes, Paula Lago, Cidalina Caetano, Ângela Rodrigues, Francisco Portela, Ana Oliveira, Paula Ministro, Eugénia Cancela, Ana Isabel Vieira, Rita Barosa, José Cotter, Pedro Carvalho, Isabelle Cremers, Daniel Trabulo, Paulo Caldeira, Artur Antunes, Isadora Rosa, Joana Moleiro, Paula Peixe, Rita Herculano, Raquel Gonçalves, Bruno Gonçalves, Helena Tavares Sousa, Luís Contente, Henrique Morna, Susana Lopes, Fernando Magro
INTRODUCTION: The establishment of prognostic models for Crohn's disease (CD) is highly desirable, as they have the potential to guide physicians in the decision-making process concerning therapeutic choices, improving patients' health and quality of life. Our aim was to derive models for disabling CD disease and reoperation based solely on clinical/demographic data. METHODS: A multicentric and retrospectively-enrolled cohort of CD patients, subject to early surgery or immunosuppression, was analized to build Bayesian network models and risk matrices...
September 28, 2016: Journal of Crohn's & Colitis
Ramon Clèries, Maria Buxó, Yutaka Yasui, Rafael Marcos-Gragera, José M Martínez, Alberto Ameijide, Jaume Galceran, Josep M Borràs, Àngel Izquierdo
AIMS AND BACKGROUND: Bayesian survival analysis was applied to assess the long-term survival and probability of death due to breast cancer (BC) in Girona, the Spanish region with the highest BC incidence. METHODS: A Bayesian autoregressive model was implemented to compare survival indicators between the periods 1985-1994 and 1995-2004. We assessed the long-term excess hazard of death, relative survival (RS), and crude probability of death due to BC (PBC) up to 20 years after BC diagnosis, reporting the 95% credible intervals (CI) of these indicators...
September 20, 2016: Tumori
Selen Bozkurt, Francisco Gimenez, Elizabeth S Burnside, Kemal H Gulkesen, Daniel L Rubin
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a system we developed that connects natural language processing (NLP) for information extraction from narrative text mammography reports with a Bayesian network for decision-support about breast cancer diagnosis. The ultimate goal of this system is to provide decision support as part of the workflow of producing the radiology report. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We built a system that uses an NLP information extraction system (which extract BI-RADS descriptors and clinical information from mammography reports) to provide the necessary inputs to a Bayesian network (BN) decision support system (DSS) that estimates lesion malignancy from BI-RADS descriptors...
August 2016: Journal of Biomedical Informatics
Toshio Shimada, Tsunehiro Yokochi, Yoko Ikoma, Akihiro Sonoda, Naoki Amemiya, Daiki Murakoshi, Hirotoshi Kuzumi, Haruka Kosugiyama
118 consecutive patients of suspected acute myocardial infarction with acute chest pain and shortness of breath visiting our emergency room were subjected for this clinical study. Based on final diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) comprehensively determined by medical record, physical examination, ECG, echocardiography, cardiac catheterization, etc., except for cardiac biomarkers, the patients were classified into two groups, with AMI group (1) and without AMI group (0) and then ROC curve analysis was performed between without AMI group (1) and with AMI group (0)...
February 2016: Rinsho Byori. the Japanese Journal of Clinical Pathology
Andrik Rampun, Ling Zheng, Paul Malcolm, Bernie Tiddeman, Reyer Zwiggelaar
In this paper we propose a prostate cancer computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system and suggest a set of discriminant texture descriptors extracted from T2-weighted MRI data which can be used as a good basis for a multimodality system. For this purpose, 215 texture descriptors were extracted and eleven different classifiers were employed to achieve the best possible results. The proposed method was tested based on 418 T2-weighted MR images taken from 45 patients and evaluated using 9-fold cross validation with five patients in each fold...
July 7, 2016: Physics in Medicine and Biology
Witold Wiecek, Helene Karcher
Renal-cell carcinoma (RCC) affects over 330,000 new patients every year, of whom 1/3 present with metastatic RCC (mRCC) at diagnosis. Most mRCC patients treated with a first-line agent relapse within 1 year and need second-line therapy. The present study aims to compare overall survival (OS) between nivolumab and cabozantinib from two recent pivotal studies comparing, respectively, each one of the two emerging treatments against everolimus in patients who relapse following first-line treatment. Comparison is traditionally carried out using the Bucher method, which assumes proportional hazard...
2016: PloS One
Paul J Hadwin, Gabriel E Galindo, Kyle J Daun, Matías Zañartu, Byron D Erath, Edson Cataldo, Sean D Peterson
The evolution of reduced-order vocal fold models into clinically useful tools for subject-specific diagnosis and treatment hinges upon successfully and accurately representing an individual patient in the modeling framework. This, in turn, requires inference of model parameters from clinical measurements in order to tune a model to the given individual. Bayesian analysis is a powerful tool for estimating model parameter probabilities based upon a set of observed data. In this work, a Bayesian particle filter sampling technique capable of estimating time-varying model parameters, as occur in complex vocal gestures, is introduced...
May 2016: Journal of the Acoustical Society of America
Toru Suzuki, Alexander Lyon, Rajeev Saggar, Liam M Heaney, Kenichi Aizawa, Antonio Cittadini, Ciro Mauro, Rodolfo Citro, Giuseppe Limongelli, Francesco Ferrara, Olga Vriz, Andrew Morley-Smith, Paolo Calabrò, Eduardo Bossone
Acute cardiothoracic and respiratory diseases frequently remain a challenge to diagnose and differentiate in the emergency setting. The main diseases that manifest with chest pain include ischaemic heart disease, myocarditis, acute pericarditis, aortic dissection/rupture and pulmonary embolism (PE). Diseases that primarily present with dyspnoea include heart failure (HF), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), pneumonia, asthma exacerbations and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Pre-test probabilities of clinical findings play a vital part in diagnostic decisions, and the use of a Bayesian approach to these greatly improves the ability to stratify patients more accurately...
September 2016: European Heart Journal. Acute Cardiovascular Care
Emmanuel A Tzortzakakis, Carolina Cantalapiedra-Navarrete, Antonio Archidona-Yuste, Juan E Palomares-Rius, Pablo Castillo
Members of the genus Scutellonema can cause substantial crop losses to ornamental and cultivated plants directly by feeding ectoparasitically on plant roots (Bridge et al., 2005; Coyne et al., 2006). In May 2015, a soil sample from a house garden from Heraklion city in Crete, Greece, was sent for diagnosis of plant-parasitic nematodes. In this place, there had been cactus (Opuntia sp.) plants (probably imported), which were uprooted 3 to 4 years earlier. After that, the area was cropped with cucumber (Cucumis sativus L...
March 2016: Journal of Nematology
(no author information available yet)
BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers...
April 9, 2016: Lancet
J J González-López, Á M García-Aparicio, D Sánchez-Ponce, N Muñoz-Sanz, N Fernandez-Ledo, P Beneyto, M C Westcott
PurposeTo develop and validate a Bayesian belief network algorithm for the differential diagnosis of anterior uveitis.Patients and methodsThe 11 most common etiologies were included (idiopathic, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriasic arthritis, reactive arthritis, inflammatory bowel diseases, sarcoidosis, tuberculosis, Behçet, Posner-Schlossman syndrome, juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), and Fuchs' heterochromic cyclitis). Frequencies of association between factors and etiologies were retrieved from a systematic review of the literature...
June 2016: Eye
Brad J White, Dan R Goehl, David E Amrine, Calvin Booker, Brian Wildman, Tye Perrett
Accurate diagnosis of bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in beef cattle is a critical facet of therapeutic programs through promotion of prompt treatment of diseased calves in concert with judicious use of antimicrobials. Despite the known inaccuracies, visual observation (VO) of clinical signs is the conventional diagnostic modality for BRD diagnosis. Objective methods of remotely monitoring cattle wellness could improve diagnostic accuracy; however, little information exists describing the accuracy of this method compared to traditional techniques...
April 1, 2016: Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Felix G Rebitschek, Josef F Krems, Georg Jahn
Diagnostic reasoning draws on knowledge about effects and their potential causes. The causal-diversity effect in diagnostic reasoning normatively depends on the distribution of effects in causal structures, and thus, a psychological diversity effect could indicate whether causally structured knowledge is used in evaluating the probability of a diagnosis, if the effect were to covary with manipulations of causal structures. In four experiments, participants dealt with a quasi-medical scenario presenting symptom sets (effects) that consistently suggested a specified diagnosis (cause)...
July 2016: Memory & Cognition
Seongho Kim, Hyejeong Jang, Dongfeng Wu, Judith Abrams
A nonlinear mixed-effects approach is developed for disease progression models that incorporate variation in age in a Bayesian framework. We further generalize the probability model for sensitivity to depend on age at diagnosis, time spent in the preclinical state and sojourn time. The developed models are then applied to the Johns Hopkins Lung Project data and the Health Insurance Plan for Greater New York data using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo and are compared with the estimation method that does not consider random-effects from age...
December 2015: Journal of Biometrics & Biostatistics
Emily A Kendall, Mariam O Fofana, David W Dowdy
BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis can be acquired through de-novo mutation during tuberculosis treatment or through transmission from other individuals with active MDR tuberculosis. Understanding the balance between these two mechanisms is essential when allocating resources for MDR tuberculosis. We aimed to create a dynamic transmission model of an MDR tuberculosis epidemic to estimate the contributions of treatment-related acquisition and person-to-person transmission of resistance to incident MDR tuberculosis cases...
December 2015: Lancet Respiratory Medicine
T R Fanshawe
There are many examples from the scientific literature of visual search tasks in which the length, scope and success rate of the search have been shown to vary according to the searcher's expectations of whether the search target is likely to be present. This phenomenon has major practical implications, for instance in cancer screening, when the prevalence of the condition is low and the consequences of a missed disease diagnosis are severe. We consider this problem from an empirical Bayesian perspective to explain how the effect of a low prior probability, subjectively assessed by the searcher, might impact on the extent of the search...
July 2015: Royal Society Open Science
Daniela Berg, Ronald B Postuma, Charles H Adler, Bastiaan R Bloem, Piu Chan, Bruno Dubois, Thomas Gasser, Christopher G Goetz, Glenda Halliday, Lawrence Joseph, Anthony E Lang, Inga Liepelt-Scarfone, Irene Litvan, Kenneth Marek, José Obeso, Wolfgang Oertel, C Warren Olanow, Werner Poewe, Matthew Stern, Günther Deuschl
This article describes research criteria and probability methodology for the diagnosis of prodromal PD. Prodromal disease refers to the stage wherein early symptoms or signs of PD neurodegeneration are present, but classic clinical diagnosis based on fully evolved motor parkinsonism is not yet possible. Given the lack of clear neuroprotective/disease-modifying therapy for prodromal PD, these criteria were developed for research purposes only. The criteria are based upon the likelihood of prodromal disease being present with probable prodromal PD defined as ≥80% certainty...
October 2015: Movement Disorders: Official Journal of the Movement Disorder Society
S Reza Jafarzadeh, Wesley O Johnson, Ian A Gardner
The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is used as a performance metric for quantitative tests. Although multiple biomarkers may be available for diagnostic or screening purposes, diagnostic accuracy is often assessed individually rather than in combination. In this paper, we consider the interesting problem of combining multiple biomarkers for use in a single diagnostic criterion with the goal of improving the diagnostic accuracy above that of an individual biomarker. The diagnostic criterion created from multiple biomarkers is based on the predictive probability of disease, conditional on given multiple biomarker outcomes...
March 15, 2016: Statistics in Medicine
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