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Bayesian probability

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28101887/abiraterone-or-enzalutamide-in-advanced-castration-resistant-prostate-cancer-an-indirect-comparison
#1
Akhil Chopra, Mina Georgieva, Gilberto Lopes, Chong Ming Yeo, Benjamin Haaland
BACKGROUND: To perform a comparative effectiveness analyses between enzalutamide and abiraterone acetate in both the pre-docetaxel and post-docetaxel settings based on published phase III randomized trials. METHODS: The primary measure of efficacy was the posterior probability that enzalutamide outperforms abiraterone acetate (AA) with prednisone in terms of overall survival (OS) on average. Indirect meta-estimates were generated from four randomized studies in the context of a Bayesian hierarchical model with study-specific efficacy estimates meta-analyzed on the log scale...
January 19, 2017: Prostate
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28099997/on-joint-estimation-of-gaussian-graphical-models-for-spatial-and-temporal-data
#2
Zhixiang Lin, Tao Wang, Can Yang, Hongyu Zhao
In this article, we first propose a Bayesian neighborhood selection method to estimate Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs). We show the graph selection consistency of this method in the sense that the posterior probability of the true model converges to one. When there are multiple groups of data available, instead of estimating the networks independently for each group, joint estimation of the networks may utilize the shared information among groups and lead to improved estimation for each individual network...
January 18, 2017: Biometrics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28097393/comparative-efficacy-and-safety-of-baricitinib-2%C3%A2-mg-and-4%C3%A2-mg-in-patients-with-active-rheumatoid-arthritis-a%C3%A2-bayesian-network-meta-analysis-of-randomized-controlled-trials
#3
Y H Lee, S-C Bae
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the relative efficacy and safety of once-daily baricitinib 2 mg and 4 mg administration in patients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: In this network meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining the efficacy and safety of baricitinib in patients with active RA were included. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted to combine the direct and indirect evidence from the RCTs. RESULTS: Seven RCTs involving 3461 patients met the inclusion criteria...
January 17, 2017: Zeitschrift Für Rheumatologie
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28097160/contribution-to-the-molecular-systematics-of-the-genus-capoeta-from-the-south-caspian-sea-basin-using-mitochondrial-cytochrome-b-sequences-teleostei-cyprinidae
#4
Halimeh Zareian, Hamid Reza Esmaeili, Adeleh Heidari, Majid Reza Khoshkholgh, Hamed Mousavi-Sabet
Traditionally, Capoeta populations from the southern Caspian Sea basin have been considered as Capoeta capoeta gracilis. Study on the phylogenetic relationship of Capoeta species using mitochondrial cytochrome b gene sequences show that Capoeta population from the southern Caspian Sea basin is distinct species and receive well support (posterior probability of 100%). Based on the tree topologies obtained from Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood methods, three main groups for the studied Capoeta were detected: Clade I) Capoeta trutta group (the Mesopotamian Capoeta group) including closely related taxa (e...
June 2016: Molecular Biology Research Communications
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28097071/the-fishing-and-natural-mortality-of-large-piscivorous-bull-trout-and-rainbow-trout-in-kootenay-lake-british-columbia-2008-2013
#5
Joseph L Thorley, Greg F Andrusak
BACKGROUND: Estimates of fishing and natural mortality are important for understanding, and ultimately managing, commercial and recreational fisheries. High reward tags with fixed station acoustic telemetry provides a promising approach to monitoring mortality rates in large lake recreational fisheries. Kootenay Lake is a large lake which supports an important recreational fishery for large Bull Trout and Rainbow Trout. METHODS: Between 2008 and 2013, 88 large (≥500 mm) Bull Trout and 149 large (≥500 mm) Rainbow Trout were marked with an acoustic transmitter and/or high reward ($100) anchor tags in Kootenay Lake...
2017: PeerJ
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28097068/hepatic-fibrosis-and-factors-associated-with-liver-stiffness-in-hiv-mono-infected-individuals
#6
Mihály Sulyok, Tamás Ferenci, Mihály Makara, Gábor Horváth, János Szlávik, Zsófia Rupnik, Luca Kormos, Zsuzsanna Gerlei, Zita Sulyok, István Vályi-Nagy
BACKGROUND: Liver disease has become an important cause of morbidity and mortality even in those HIV-infected individuals who are devoid of hepatitis virus co-infection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the degree of hepatic fibrosis and the role of associated factors using liver stiffness measurement in HIV mono-infected patients without significant alcohol intake. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of 101 HIV mono-infected patients recruited prospectively from March 1, 2014 to October 30, 2014 at the Center for HIV, St István and St László Hospital, Budapest, Hungary...
2017: PeerJ
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095591/a-critical-discussion-and-practical-recommendations-on-some-issues-relevant-to-the-nonprobabilistic-treatment-of-uncertainty-in-engineering-risk-assessment
#7
Nicola Pedroni, Enrico Zio, Alberto Pasanisi, Mathieu Couplet
Models for the assessment of the risk of complex engineering systems are affected by uncertainties due to the randomness of several phenomena involved and the incomplete knowledge about some of the characteristics of the system. The objective of this article is to provide operative guidelines to handle some conceptual and technical issues related to the treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment for engineering practice. In particular, the following issues are addressed: (1) quantitative modeling and representation of uncertainty coherently with the information available on the system of interest; (2) propagation of the uncertainty from the input(s) to the output(s) of the system model; (3) (Bayesian) updating as new information on the system becomes available; and (4) modeling and representation of dependences among the input variables and parameters of the system model...
January 17, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28095201/multisensory-bayesian-inference-depends-on-synapse-maturation-during-training-theoretical-analysis-and-neural-modeling-implementation
#8
Mauro Ursino, Cristiano Cuppini, Elisa Magosso
Recent theoretical and experimental studies suggest that in multisensory conditions, the brain performs a near-optimal Bayesian estimate of external events, giving more weight to the more reliable stimuli. However, the neural mechanisms responsible for this behavior, and its progressive maturation in a multisensory environment, are still insufficiently understood. The aim of this letter is to analyze this problem with a neural network model of audiovisual integration, based on probabilistic population coding-the idea that a population of neurons can encode probability functions to perform Bayesian inference...
January 17, 2017: Neural Computation
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28093535/hepatitis-e-in-singapore-a-case-series-and-viral-phylodynamics-study
#9
Esmeralda Chi-Yuan Teo, Boon-Huan Tan, Michael A Purdy, Pui-San Wong, Pei-Jun Ting, Pik-Eu Jason Chang, Lynette Lin-Ean Oon, Amanda Sue, Chong-Gee Teo, Chee-Kiat Tan
The incidence of hepatitis E in Singapore appears to be increasing. A retrospective case-series study of patients diagnosed with hepatitis E in a tertiary hospital from 2009 to 2013 was conducted. Of 16 cases, eight (50%) were solid-organ transplant recipients (SOTRs), and 14 (88%) were found infected by genotype 3 hepatitis E virus (HEV-3). Bayesian inferences based on HEV subgenomic sequences from seven cases suggest that HEV-3 strains were introduced to Singapore as two principal lineages. Within limitations of the study, it can be inferred that one lineage, in the 3efg clade, emerged about 83 years ago, probably originating from Japan, whereas the other, in the 3abchij clade, emerged about 40 years ago, from the United States...
January 16, 2017: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092593/robust-estimation-of-arx-models-with-time-varying-time-delays-using-variational-bayesian-approach
#10
Yujia Zhao, Alireza Fatehi, Biao Huang
This paper is concerned with robust identification of processes with time-varying time delays. In reality, the delay values do not simply change randomly, but there is a correlation between consecutive delays. In this paper, the correlation of time delay is modeled by the transition probability of a Markov chain. Furthermore, the measured data are often contaminated by outliers, and therefore, t-distribution is adopted to model the measurement noise. The variational Bayesian (VB) approach is applied to estimate the model parameters along with time delays...
January 10, 2017: IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092388/exploration-and-analysis-of-drug-modes-of-action-through-feature-integration
#11
Mingyuan Xin, Jun Fan, Mingyao Liu, Zhenran Jiang
Identifying drug modes of action (MoA) is of paramount importance for having a good grasp of drug indications in clinical tests. Anticipating MoA can help to discover new uses for approved drugs. Here we first used a drug-set enrichment analysis method to discover significant biological activities in every mode of action category. Then, we proposed a new computational model, a probability ensemble approach based on Bayesian network theory, which integrated chemical, therapeutic, genomic and phenotypic properties of over a thousand of FDA approved drugs to assist with the prediction of MoA...
January 16, 2017: Molecular BioSystems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28089763/comparison-of-multi-arm-multi-stage-design-and-adaptive-randomization-in-platform-clinical-trials
#12
REVIEW
Jianchang Lin, Veronica Bunn
Platforms trials are clinical trials that allow for concurrent evaluations of multiple treatments, thus allowing for more efficient and ethical studies compared to traditional two-arm trials. Conventional group-sequential multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) designs use pre-specified stopping boundaries and treatment selection rules to determine if experimental treatments should be dropped. Flexible MAMS designs allow for interim modifications to the design plan without compromising error rates. Bayesian response adaptive randomization (BRAR) designs increase patient allocation to treatment arms that are performing well during the course of the trial...
January 12, 2017: Contemporary Clinical Trials
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28089137/a-comparison-of-cangrelor-prasugrel-ticagrelor-and-clopidogrel-in-patients-undergoing-percutaneous-coronary-intervention-a-network-meta-analysis
#13
Peter C Westman, Michael J Lipinski, Rebecca Torguson, Ron Waksman
BACKGROUND: Newer P2Y12 inhibitors have more rapid onset of platelet inhibition compared with clopidogrel, especially the intravenous P2Y12 inhibitor cangrelor. Direct comparisons between cangrelor and oral P2Y12 inhibitors ticagrelor and prasugrel do not exist. Thus, we performed a network meta-analysis to directly and indirectly compare different P2Y12 inhibitors in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS: MEDLINE/PubMed and ClinicalTrials...
October 21, 2016: Cardiovascular Revascularization Medicine: Including Molecular Interventions
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28088341/evaluation-of-an-in-house-indirect-elisa-for-detection-of-antibody-against-haemorrhagic-septicemia-in-asian-elephants
#14
Pallop Tankaew, Thawatchai Singh-La, Chatchote Titaram, Veerasak Punyapornwittaya, Preeyanat Vongchan, Takuo Sawada, Nattawooti Sthitmatee
Pasteurella multocida causes haemorrhagic septicemia in livestock and wild animals, including elephants. The disease has been reported in Asian elephants in India and Sri Lanka, but to date there have been no reported cases in Thailand. ELISA or indirect hemagglutination assays (IHA) have been demonstrated to be able to detect the antibody against the disease in cattle, but no data are available for elephants. The present study reports a novel in-house indirect ELISA for antibody detection of haemorrhagic septicemia in Asian elephants, and evaluates the sensitivity and specificity of the method using a Bayesian approach...
January 12, 2017: Journal of Microbiological Methods
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28088170/application-of-a-bayesian-dominance-model-improves-power-in-quantitative-trait-genome-wide-association-analysis
#15
Jörn Bennewitz, Christian Edel, Ruedi Fries, Theo H E Meuwissen, Robin Wellmann
BACKGROUND: Multi-marker methods, which fit all markers simultaneously, were originally tailored for genomic selection purposes, but have proven to be useful also in association analyses, especially the so-called BayesC Bayesian methods. In a recent study, BayesD extended BayesC towards accounting for dominance effects and improved prediction accuracy and persistence in genomic selection. The current study investigated the power and precision of BayesC and BayesD in genome-wide association studies by means of stochastic simulations and applied these methods to a dairy cattle dataset...
January 14, 2017: Genetics, Selection, Evolution: GSE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28087736/imputation-of-orofacial-clefting-data-identifies-novel-risk-loci-and-sheds-light-on-the-genetic-background-of-cleft-lip-%C3%A2-cleft-palate-and-cleft-palate-only
#16
Kerstin U Ludwig, Anne C Böhmer, John Bowes, Miloš Nikolić, Nina Ishorst, Niki Wyatt, Nigel L Hammond, Lina Gölz, Frederic Thieme, Sandra Barth, Hannah Schuenke, Johanna Klamt, Malte Spielmann, Khalid Aldhorae, Augusto Rojas-Martinez, Markus M Nöthen, Alvaro Rada-Iglesias, Michael J Dixon, Michael Knapp, Elisabeth Mangold
Nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (nsCL/P) is among the most common human birth defects with multifactorial etiology. Here, we present results from a genome-wide imputation study of nsCL/P in which, after adding replication cohort data, four novel risk loci for nsCL/P are identified (at chromosomal regions 2p21, 14q22, 15q24 and 19p13). On a systematic level, we show that the association signals within this high-density dataset are enriched in functionally-relevant genomic regions that are active in both human neural crest cells (hNCC) and mouse embryonic craniofacial tissue...
January 13, 2017: Human Molecular Genetics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28079510/a-comparison-of-discontinuation-rates-of-tofacitinib-and-biologic-disease-modifying-antirheumatic-drugs-in-rheumatoid-arthritis-a-systematic-review-and-bayesian-network-meta-analysis
#17
Sun-Kyeong Park, Min-Young Lee, Eun-Jin Jang, Hye-Lin Kim, Dong-Mun Ha, Eui-Kyung Lee
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to compare the discontinuation rates of tofacitinib and biologics (tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi), abatacept, rituximab, and tocilizumab) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients considering inadequate responses (IRs) to previous treatment(s). METHODS: Randomised controlled trials of tofacitinib and biologics - reporting at least one total discontinuation, discontinuation due to lack of efficacy (LOE), and discontinuation due to adverse events (AEs) - were identified through systematic review...
January 5, 2017: Clinical and Experimental Rheumatology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28076375/sensiblesleep-a-bayesian-model-for-learning-sleep-patterns-from-smartphone-events
#18
Andrea Cuttone, Per Bækgaard, Vedran Sekara, Håkan Jonsson, Jakob Eg Larsen, Sune Lehmann
We propose a Bayesian model for extracting sleep patterns from smartphone events. Our method is able to identify individuals' daily sleep periods and their evolution over time, and provides an estimation of the probability of sleep and wake transitions. The model is fitted to more than 400 participants from two different datasets, and we verify the results against ground truth from dedicated armband sleep trackers. We show that the model is able to produce reliable sleep estimates with an accuracy of 0.89, both at the individual and at the collective level...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28073867/the-maimed-martian-credible-intervals-and-bias-against-benefit
#19
David Kault
A sad little story about a maimed Martian astronaut is used to illustrate a method of improving confidence interval (CI) calculations. CIs in medical statistics are currently calculated from the data available in a clinical trial or meta-analysis considered in isolation from all other information available on earth. Likewise, the Martian in the story uses only information available to it, in isolation from further information from earth. However, there is further objective knowledge available to people on earth to improve the Martian's estimate...
January 10, 2017: Evidence-based Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28073771/out-of-borneo-biogeography-phylogeny-and-divergence-date-estimates-of-artocarpus-moraceae
#20
Evelyn W Williams, Elliot M Gardner, Robert Harris, Arunrat Chaveerach, Joan T Pereira, Nyree J C Zerega
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The breadfruit genus (Artocarpus, Moraceae) includes valuable underutilized fruit tree crops with a centre of diversity in Southeast Asia. It belongs to the monophyletic tribe Artocarpeae, whose only other members include two small neotropical genera. This study aimed to reconstruct the phylogeny, estimate divergence dates and infer ancestral ranges of Artocarpeae, especially Artocarpus, to better understand spatial and temporal evolutionary relationships and dispersal patterns in a geologically complex region...
January 10, 2017: Annals of Botany
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