Bayesian probability

OBJECTIVES: Hypotension is associated with adverse outcomes in critically ill and perioperative patients. However, these assumptions are supported by observational studies. This meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials aims to compare the impact of lower versus higher blood pressure targets on mortality. DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, Cochrane, and Scholar from inception to February 10, 2024. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized trials comparing lower versus higher blood pressure targets in the management of critically ill and perioperative settings...

This study delves into the functional and structural implications of non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs) within the Prolactin Receptor (PRLR) gene. Thirteen deleterious nsSNPs were identified through bioinformatics tools, with SIFT predicting 168 out of 395 nsSNPs as detrimental, exhibiting tolerance index (TI) scores ranging from 0 to 0.05. Polyphen2 assigned likelihood scores >0.99 to all 13 nsSNPs, indicating high probability of harm, while Panther scores classified most nsSNPs as 'probably damaging', with specific mutations like W218R scoring 0...

The analysis of system reliability has often benefited from graphical tools such as fault trees and Bayesian networks. In this article, instead of conventional graphical tools, we apply a probabilistic graphical model called the chain event graph (CEG) to represent the failures and processes of deterioration of a system. The CEG is derived from an event tree and can flexibly represent the unfolding of asymmetric processes. For this application, we need to define a new class of formal intervention we call remedial to model the causal effects of remedial maintenance...

In the last decade, the Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) process has yielded interesting clues about the evolution of biodiversity through time. To facilitate such studies, we extend our method to compute the probability density of phylogenetic trees of extant and extinct taxa in which the only temporal information is provided by the fossil ages (i.e. without the divergence times) in order to deal with the piecewise constant FBD process, known as the "skyline FBD", which allows rates to change between pre-defined time intervals, as well as modelling extinction events at the bounds of these intervals...

To accurately reconstruct palaeoenvironmental change through time it is important to determine which rock samples were deposited contemporaneously at different sites or transects, as erroneous correlation may lead to incorrectly inferred processes and rates. To correlate samples, current practice interpolates geological age between datable units along each transect, then temporal signatures observed in geochemical logs are matched between transects. Unfortunately spatiotemporally variable and unknown rates of sedimentary deposition create highly nonlinear space-time transforms, significantly altering apparent geochemical signatures...

AIM: This network meta-analysis was to analyze and rank the efficacy and safety of different systemic drugs in the treatment of uremic pruritus (UP) among hemodialysis patients. METHOD: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases were searched from inception to 10 July 2023 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating different drugs in the treatment of UP among hemodialysis patients. Drugs including cromolyn sodium, dexchlorpheniramine, difelikefalin, gabapentin, hydroxyzine, ketotifen, melatonin, montelukast, nalbuphine, nalfurafine, nemolizumab, nicotinamide, pregabalin, sertraline, thalidomide, and placebo were assessed...

The species richness in the Neotropics has been linked to environmental heterogeneity and a complex geological history. We evaluated which biogeographic processes were associated with the diversification of Monkey tree frogs, an endemic clade from the Neotropics. We tested two competing hypotheses: the diversification of Phyllomedusinae occurred either in a "south-north" or a "north-south" direction in the Neotropics. We also hypothesized that marine introgressions and Andean uplift had a crucial role in promoting their diversification...

Epidemiologic screening programs often make use of tests with small, but non-zero probabilities of misdiagnosis. In this article, we assume the target population is finite with a fixed number of true cases, and that we apply an imperfect test with known sensitivity and specificity to a sample of individuals from the population. In this setting, we propose an enhanced inferential approach for use in conjunction with sampling-based bias-corrected prevalence estimation. While ignoring the finite nature of the population can yield markedly conservative estimates, direct application of a standard finite population correction (FPC) conversely leads to underestimation of variance...

BACKGROUND: Globally, over one-third of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease diagnoses are made based on clinical criteria after a negative diagnostic test result. Understanding factors associated with clinicians' decisions to initiate treatment for individuals with negative test results is critical for predicting the potential impact of new diagnostics. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis using studies conducted between January/2010 and December/2022 (PROSPERO: CRD42022287613)...

BACKGROUND: The effects of bempedoic acid in the secondary prevention setting have not been examined. METHODS: We used data from the overall and primary prevention reports of CLEAR - Outcomes to reconstruct data for the secondary prevention population. A Bayesian analyses was employed to calculate the posterior probability of benefit or harm for the outcomes of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Relative effect sizes are presented as risk ratios (RR) with 95% credible intervals (CrI), which represent the intervals that true effect sizes are expected to fall in with 95% probability, given the priors and model...

INTRODUCTION: Subjective cognitive decline means a decline in the subjective perception of self-cognitive function, which is likely to evolve into mild cognitive impairment and dementia. The number of elderly with subjective cognitive decline has increased, bringing huge burdens and challenges to caregivers and society. With the increase in research on art therapies, some of them have gradually been proven to be effective for cognitive function. Therefore, this study aims to summarise the evidence and identify the best art therapy for elderly with subjective cognitive decline...

BACKGROUND: Blurred work-non-work boundaries can have negative effects on mental health, including sleep. OBJECTIVES: In a randomised control trial, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of an online recovery training programme designed to improve symptoms of insomnia in a working population exposed to blurred boundaries. METHODS: 128 participants with severe insomnia symptoms (Insomnia Severity Index ≥15) and working under blurred work and non-work conditions (segmentation supplies <2...

Of the strategies considered to limit the discomfort of corticosteroid injection, one is to inject without lidocaine to reduce the total volume and avoid acidity. In a Bayesian trial, adults receiving corticosteroid injections were randomized to receive 0.5 mL of triamcinolone with or without 0.5 mL of lidocaine. Serial analysis was performed until a 95% probability of presence or absence of a 1.0-point difference in pain intensity on the 0-10 Numerical Rating Scale was reached. Injections with lidocaine were associated with a median of 2...

Introduction A computed tomography (CT) scan and point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) are commonly employed for diagnosing small bowel obstructions (SBOs). Prior studies demonstrated that POCUS has 90-95% sensitivity and specificity compared with CT scanning, which is the gold standard. Unlike other imaging modalities (in which the ordering and performing clinician are not the same), POCUS-performing/interpreting sonologists must recognize the risk of confirmation bias in the POCUS application. Per Bayesian analysis, the likelihood of a diagnosis being true following a diagnostic test is based on the ordering clinician's pre-test probability and the test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity, from which positive and negative likelihood ratios can be calculated)...

This paper aims to introduce a novel family of probability distributions by the well-known method of the T-X family of distributions. The proposed family is called a "Novel Generalized Exponent Power X Family" of distributions. A three-parameters special sub-model of the proposed method is derived and named a "Novel Generalized Exponent Power Weibull" distribution (NGEP-Wei for short). For the proposed family, some statistical properties are derived including the hazard rate function, moments, moment generating function, order statistics, residual life, and reverse residual life...

Although the Bayesian paradigm is an important benchmark in studies of human inference, the extent to which it provides a useful framework to account for human behavior remains debated. We document systematic departures from Bayesian inference under correct beliefs, even on average, in the estimates by experimental subjects of the probability of a binary event following observations of successive realizations of the event. In particular, we find underreaction of subjects' estimates to the evidence ("conservatism") after only a few observations and at the same time overreaction after longer sequences of observations...

The expected value of the standard power function of a test, computed with respect to a design prior distribution, is often used to evaluate the probability of success of an experiment. However, looking only at the expected value might be reductive. Instead, the whole probability distribution of the power function induced by the design prior can be exploited. In this article we consider one-sided testing for the scale parameter of exponential families and we derive general unifying expressions for cumulative distribution and density functions of the random power...

Rock hind (Epinephelus adscensionis) and spotted moray (Gymnothorax moringa) are ubiquitous mesopredators that co-occur in the nearshore waters of Ascension Island in the South Atlantic Ocean, where they have significant cultural and subsistence value, but management of their non-commercial take is limited. This isolated volcanic system is home to high biomass and low species diversity, which poses two key questions: How can two mesopredators that perform similar ecological roles coexist? And if these two species are so ecologically similar, can they be managed using the same approach? Here, we combined acoustic telemetry, stomach content analysis, and stable isotope analysis to (i) explore space use and diet choices within and between these two species and (ii) to assess appropriate species-specific management options...

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer stands as the most prevalent type of cancer affecting women globally, and chemotherapy plays a pivotal role in its treatment by diminishing tumour recurrence and enhancing the survival rates of patients. However, chemotherapy-related cognitive impairment (CRCI) often occurs in patients undergoing treatment. Although multiple clinical trials have indicated that exercise therapy can improve CRCI in patients with breast cancer, there are variations in the types of exercise interventions and their effectiveness...

Understanding the strength of trade-off and synergistic relationships among ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for ecological management and restoration in the Fenhe River Basin. However, there is still a lack of sufficient research on the driving variables and spatial pattern optimization of the strength of ESs relationships in this area. Based on the quantitative assessment of six ESs in the Fenhe River Basin in 2000 and 2020, the ecosystem services trade-off synergy index (TSI) was introduced to quantitatively measure the strength of trade-off and synergistic relationships between each pair of ESs...