Bayes theorem

INTRODUCTION: Preeclampsia (PE) is a major maternal and fetal threat. Previous risk-scoring methods in guidelines lacked precision. The Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) proposed a first-trimester PE screening model using Bayes' theorem. PE PREDICTION MODEL: FMF prediction model combines maternal characteristics and medical/obstetrical history to determine prior risk and further incorporate maternal blood pressure, maternal serum biomarkers, and uterine Doppler pulsatility index expressed as multiples of the median (MoM) to estimate posterior risk...

Forensic document examiners are often confronted with questioned documents written with ballpoint pens. Depending on the force applied (or pressure) as well as the angle between the pen and the surface, sister lines running parallel to the inked strokes can be left by the lip of the housing ball. In a real case, sister lines were observed on the left side of inked strokes of a questioned signature. To assess whether the writer of that signature was a left-handed or a right-handed writer based on this result, an experimental study was carried out...

Polygenic Scores (PGSs) summarize an individual's genetic propensity for a given trait in a single value, based on SNP effect sizes derived from Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) results. Methods have been developed that apply Bayesian approaches to improve the prediction accuracy of PGSs through optimization of estimated effect sizes. While these methods are generally well-calibrated for continuous traits (implying the predicted values are on average equal to the true trait values), they are not well-calibrated for binary disorder traits in ascertained samples...

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Clinical trials play a crucial role in generating evidence about healthcare interventions and improving outcomes for current and future patients. For individual trial participants, however, there are inevitably trade-offs involved in clinical trial participation, given that trials have traditionally been designed to benefit future patient populations rather than to offer personalised care. Failure to understand the distinction between research and clinical care and the likelihood of benefit from participation in clinical trials has been termed the 'therapeutic misconception'...

When two black holes merge, the late stage of gravitational wave emission is a superposition of exponentially damped sinusoids. According to the black hole no-hair theorem, this ringdown spectrum depends only on the mass and angular momentum of the final black hole. An observation of more than one ringdown mode can test this fundamental prediction of general relativity. Here, we provide strong observational evidence for a multimode black hole ringdown spectrum using the gravitational wave event GW190521, with a maximum Bayes factor of 56±1 (1σ uncertainty) preferring two fundamental modes over one...

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pediatric congenital heart patients are predisposed to develop low-cardiac output syndrome. Serum lactate (lactic acid [LA]) is a well-defined marker of inadequate systemic oxygen delivery. OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized that a near real-time risk index calculated by a noninvasive predictive analytics algorithm predicts elevated LA in pediatric patients admitted to a cardiac ICU (CICU). DERIVATION COHORT: Ten tertiary CICUs in the United States and Pakistan...

Bayes' Theorem provides a rationality-standard for information search when there are two mutually exclusive hypotheses and one or more statistical cues pertaining to the likelihoods of the hypotheses. Prior research shows that when people already have a cue pertaining to a hypothesis and are asked to seek additional information to help decide which hypothesis is correct, they tend to exhibit a specific form of pseudodiagnosticity: Rather than seek information that would assess the same cue relative to an alternative hypothesis, they tend to seek information about how a second cue would pertain to the first hypothesis...

BACKGROUND: The American Statistical Association has highlighted problems with null hypothesis significance testing and outlined alternative approaches that may 'supplement or even replace P-values'. One alternative is to report the false positive risk (FPR), which quantifies the chance the null hypothesis is true when the result is statistically significant. METHODS: We reviewed single-centre, randomised trials in 10 anaesthesia journals over 6 yr where differences in a primary binary outcome were statistically significant...

PURPOSE: In this study, we aimed to establish a method for predicting the probability of each acute radiation dermatitis (ARD) grade during the head and neck Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) radiotherapy planning phase based on Bayesian probability. METHODS: The skin dose volume >50 Gy (V50 ), calculated using the treatment planning system, was used as a factor related to skin toxicity. The empirical distribution of each ARD grade relative to V50 was obtained from the ARD grades of 119 patients (55, 50, and 14 patients with G1, G2, and G3, respectively) determined by head and neck cancer specialists...

In Japan an original pathological classification of IgA nephropathy was used, while Oxford classification of IgA nephropathy was used globally. The Oxford classification requires ≥ 8 glomeruli while the Japanese classification requires ≥ 10. Ninety-nine patients diagnosed with IgA nephropathy were included. To determine the accuracy of histological staging, we calculated the posterior probability using Bayes' theorem and adopted three model of prior distribution. First, the actual staging distribution was reclassified using the beta distribution (reclassified distribution)...

INTRODUCTION: The results of the CLARITY-AD, GRADUATE I and II, and TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 trials have rekindled discussion on the impact of amyloid-targeting drugs. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify how rational observers would have updated their prior beliefs based on new trial results. METHODS: We used publicly available data from the CLARITY-AD, GRADUATE I and II, and TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 trials to estimate the effect of reducing amyloid on the clinical dementia rating scale, sum of boxes (CDR-SB) score...

This work addresses J.A. Wheeler's critical idea that all things physical are information-theoretic in origin. In this paper, we introduce a novel mathematical framework based on information geometry, using the Fisher information metric as a particular Riemannian metric, defined in the parameter space of a smooth statistical manifold of normal probability distributions. Following this approach, we study the stationary states with the time-independent Schrödinger's equation to discover that the information could be represented and distributed over a set of quantum harmonic oscillators, one for each independent source of data, whose coordinate for each oscillator is a parameter of the smooth statistical manifold to estimate...

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of myeloid hematologic malignancies in Italy has been poorly investigated. METHODS: We used a validated database of 1974-2003 incident cases of hematologic malignancies among the resident population (all ages) of Sardinia, Italy, to describe the incidence of myeloid malignancies overall (N = 4389 cases) and by subtype. We investigated the time trend of acute myeloid leukemia (N = 1227 cases), chronic myeloid leukemia (N = 613 cases), and myelodysplastic syndrome (N = 1296 cases), and used Bayesian methods to explore their geographic spread, and Poisson regression analysis to estimate their association with environmental and socio-economic factors...

Electrocardiograms (ECGs) are a cornerstone in cardiac care. Traditional statistical metrics like sensitivity and specificity are commonly used for diagnostic evaluations but are limited when applied in clinical settings due to their inability to incorporate pre-test likelihoods or individual patient context. Traditional diagnostic metrics do not provide a complete picture in clinical scenarios. Bayesian reasoning allows for a more nuanced approach, integrating pre-test probabilities and individual patient context to produce more accurate post-test probabilities...

BACKGROUND: The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was an emergency situation that led each country to adopt specific regional strategies to control it. Given the spread of COVID-19 disease, it is crucial to evaluate which policy is more effective in reducing disease transmission. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of policies made by COVID-19 Disease Control Committee (CDCC) to reduce the risk of the disease in Hamadan province. METHODS: In the observational study, the data were extracted from three sources in Hamadan, west of Iran; first, the session reports of CDCC; second, information on periodic evaluations conducted by the primary health care directory in Hamadan from April to August 2021 and third, expert panel opinion...

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the potential contribution of biomass fuels exposure to the occurrence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in rural areas of western China. METHODS: We analyzed data collected between October 2017 and October 2018 from a nested case-control study of individuals at least 40 years old in the general population in Mianyang City, Sichuan Province, China. Demographic information was collected using a custom-designed questionnaire, and lung function was measured using spirometry...

Randomized controlled trials are one of the best ways of quantifying the effectiveness of medical interventions. Therefore, when the authors of a randomized superiority trial report that differences in the primary outcome between the intervention group and the control group are "significant" (i.e., P ≤ 0.05), we might assume that the intervention has an effect on the outcome. Similarly, when differences between the groups are "not significant," we might assume that the intervention does not have an effect on the outcome...

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the new 36 weeks' Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing risks model for the prediction of small for gestational age (SGA) at an earlier gestation of 30+0 to 34+0 weeks. METHODS: This is a retrospective multi-center cohort study of prospectively collected data on 3,012 women with singleton pregnancies undergoing ultrasound examination at 30+0 - 34+0 weeks' gestation, as part of a universal screening program. We used the default 36 weeks' FMF competing risks model for prediction of SGA, combining maternal factors (age, obstetric and medical history, weight, height, smoking, race, conception), estimated fetal weight (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), to calculate risks for different cut-offs of birth weight percentile and gestational age at delivery...

Current mechanistic chromatography process modeling methods lack the ability to account for the impact of experimental errors beyond detector noise (e.g. pump delays and variable feed composition) on the uncertainty in calibrated model parameters and the resulting model-predicted chromatograms. This paper presents an uncertainty quantification method that addresses this limitation by determining the probability distribution of parameters in calibrated models, taking into consideration multiple realistic sources of experimental error...