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Bayes theorem

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29643459/1-5-%C3%A2-c-carbon-budget-dependent-on-carbon-cycle-uncertainty-and-future-non-co-2-forcing
#1
Nadine Mengis, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Jonathan Jalbert, H Damon Matthews
Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF) carbon budget of 469 PgC since 1850, with a 95% likelihood range of (411,528) PgC...
April 11, 2018: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29622302/applied-bayesian-methods-in-the-rheumatic-diseases
#2
REVIEW
Sindhu R Johnson, George A Tomlinson, John T Granton, Gillian A Hawker, Brian M Feldman
The use of applied Bayesian methods is increasing in rheumatology. Using the Bayes theorem, past evidence is updated with new data. Preexisting data are expressed as a prior probability distribution or prior. New observations are expressed as a likelihood. Through explicit incorporation of preexisting data and new data, this process informs how this new information should change the way we think. In this article, the authors highlight the use of applied Bayesian methods in the study of rheumatic diseases.
May 2018: Rheumatic Diseases Clinics of North America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29603503/flawed-statistics-and-science-confirming-existing-paradigms
#3
Lex A L B Rutten
BACKGROUND: Part of the scientific community states that implausible methods cannot have a true effect and that epidemiological proof can only lead to false positives. DISCUSSION: Homeopathy is regarded as an example of an implausible method with false positive evidence. However, epidemiological proof is necessary to falsify the placebo hypothesis. Implausibility is now supposed to rectify selection of a part of all trials, but the applied selection criteria are diverse and not common in conventional medicine...
March 30, 2018: Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29536931/using-bayes-rule-in-diagnostic-testing-a-graphical-explanation
#4
REVIEW
Kevin M Johnson
In the context of diagnostic testing, concepts such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios and more are all interconnected, but precisely how can be confusing to the nonstatistician. This paper presents a graphical explanation. Bayes' rule, or theorem, ties several of these concepts together and should have a role in careful diagnostic thinking. It too can be understood in terms of the "two-by-two diagram" presented here.
September 26, 2017: Diagnosis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29536574/comparison-of-diagnostic-accuracy-of-early-screening-for-pre-eclampsia-by-nice-guidelines-and-a-method-combining-maternal-factors-and-biomarkers-results-of-spree
#5
M Y Tan, D Wright, A Syngelaki, R Akolekar, S Cicero, D Janga, M Singh, E Greco, A Wright, K Maclagan, L C Poon, K H Nicolaides
OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the performance of first-trimester screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) by a method that uses Bayes' theorem to combine maternal factors with biomarkers is superior to that defined by current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. METHODS: This was a prospective multicenter study (screening program for pre-eclampsia (SPREE)) in seven National Health Service maternity hospitals in England, of women recruited between April and December 2016...
March 14, 2018: Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29424559/bayesian-latent-class-analysis-tutorial
#6
Yuelin Li, Jennifer Lord-Bessen, Mariya Shiyko, Rebecca Loeb
This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles...
February 9, 2018: Multivariate Behavioral Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29402826/when-to-screen-ischaemic-stroke-patients-for-cancer
#7
Henriette Aurora Selvik, Anna Therese Bjerkreim, Lars Thomassen, Ulrike Waje-Andreassen, Halvor Naess, Christopher Elnan Kvistad
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Ischemic stroke can be the first manifestation of cancer and it is therefore important to ascertain which stroke patients should be considered for cancer-diagnostic investigations. We aimed to determine the frequency of active cancer in patients with acute ischemic stroke and to compare clinical findings in stroke patients with active cancer to ischemic stroke patients with no history of cancer. Finally, we aimed to develop a predictive and feasible score for clinical use to uncover underlying malignancy...
2018: Cerebrovascular Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29389938/skill-or-lack-thereof-of-data-model-fusion-techniques-to-provide-an-early-warning-signal-for-an-approaching-tipping-point
#8
Riddhi Singh, Julianne D Quinn, Patrick M Reed, Klaus Keller
Many coupled human-natural systems have the potential to exhibit a highly nonlinear threshold response to external forcings resulting in fast transitions to undesirable states (such as eutrophication in a lake). Often, there are considerable uncertainties that make identifying the threshold challenging. Thus, rapid learning is critical for guiding management actions to avoid abrupt transitions. Here, we adopt the shallow lake problem as a test case to compare the performance of four common data assimilation schemes to predict an approaching transition...
2018: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29327266/social-targets-improve-body-based-and-environment-based-strategies-during-spatial-navigation
#9
Esther Kuehn, Xiaoli Chen, Pia Geise, Jan Oltmer, Thomas Wolbers
Encoding the position of another person in space is vital for everyday life. Nevertheless, little is known about the specific navigational strategies associated with encoding the position of another person in the wider spatial environment. We asked two groups of participants to learn the location of a target (person or object) during active navigation, while optic flow information, a landmark, or both optic flow information and a landmark were available in a virtual environment. Whereas optic flow information is used for body-based encoding, such as the simulation of motor movements, landmarks are used to form an abstract, disembodied representation of the environment...
March 2018: Experimental Brain Research. Experimentelle Hirnforschung. Expérimentation Cérébrale
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29322097/toward-a-leading-indicator-of-catastrophic-shifts-in-complex-systems-assessing-changing-conditions-in-nation-states
#10
Leisha Vance, Tarsha Eason, Heriberto Cabezas, Michael E Gorman
The 20th century was characterized by substantial change on a global scale. There were multiple wars and unrest, social and political transitions, technological innovation and widespread development that impacted every corner of the earth. In order to assess the sustainability implications of these changes, we conducted a study of three advanced nations particularly affected during this time: France, Germany and the United States (USA). All three nation states withstood these changes and yet continued to thrive, which speaks to their resilience...
December 2017: Heliyon
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29242838/a-dirichlet-multinomial-bayes-classifier-for-disease-diagnosis-with-microbial-compositions
#11
Xiang Gao, Huaiying Lin, Qunfeng Dong
Dysbiosis of microbial communities is associated with various human diseases, raising the possibility of using microbial compositions as biomarkers for disease diagnosis. We have developed a Bayes classifier by modeling microbial compositions with Dirichlet-multinomial distributions, which are widely used to model multicategorical count data with extra variation. The parameters of the Dirichlet-multinomial distributions are estimated from training microbiome data sets based on maximum likelihood. The posterior probability of a microbiome sample belonging to a disease or healthy category is calculated based on Bayes' theorem, using the likelihood values computed from the estimated Dirichlet-multinomial distribution, as well as a prior probability estimated from the training microbiome data set or previously published information on disease prevalence...
November 2017: MSphere
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29217989/bayesian-inference-of-metal-oxide-ultrathin-film-structure-based-on-crystal-truncation-rod-measurements
#12
Masato Anada, Yoshinori Nakanishi-Ohno, Masato Okada, Tsuyoshi Kimura, Yusuke Wakabayashi
Monte Carlo (MC)-based refinement software to analyze the atomic arrangements of perovskite oxide ultrathin films from the crystal truncation rod intensity is developed on the basis of Bayesian inference. The advantages of the MC approach are (i) it is applicable to multi-domain structures, (ii) it provides the posterior probability of structures through Bayes' theorem, which allows one to evaluate the uncertainty of estimated structural parameters, and (iii) one can involve any information provided by other experiments and theories...
December 1, 2017: Journal of Applied Crystallography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29209139/bayes-theorem-the-roc-diagram-and-reference-values-definition-and-use-in-clinical-diagnosis
#13
REVIEW
Anders Kallner
Medicine is diagnosis, treatment and care. To diagnose is to consider the probability of the cause of discomfort experienced by the patient. The physician may face many options and all decisions are liable to uncertainty to some extent. The rational action is to perform selected tests and thereby increase the pre-test probability to reach a superior post-test probability of a particular option. To draw the right conclusions from a test, certain background information about the performance of the test is necessary...
February 15, 2018: Biochemia Medica: časopis Hrvatskoga Društva Medicinskih Biokemičara
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29156414/schizophrenia-heterogeneity-revisited-clinical-cognitive-and-psychosocial-correlates-of-statistically-derived-negative-symptoms-subgroups
#14
Anthony O Ahmed, Gregory P Strauss, Robert W Buchanan, Brian Kirkpatrick, William T Carpenter
Traditional efforts to delineate the clinical heterogeneity of schizophrenia have been unsuccessful because of the absence of a valid, stable, and meaningful subtyping scheme. A clinically-informed nosology supported by multivariate statistical classification methods may provide a better approach for classifying schizophrenia. The goals of the current study were to 1) use multivariate classification methods to validate a clinical subtyping scheme based on the profile of negative symptoms; and 2) following validation to contrast the statistically-derived subgroups to ascertain distinguishing demographic, clinical, cognitive, and functional characteristics...
February 2018: Journal of Psychiatric Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29154079/clinical-performance-of-a-next-generation-sequencing-assay-thyroseq-v2-in-the-evaluation-of-indeterminate-thyroid-nodules
#15
Aida Taye, Dillon Gurciullo, Brett A Miles, Ashita Gupta, Randall P Owen, William B Inabnet, Jessica N Beyda, Jennifer L Marti
BACKGROUND: Molecular testing with the Thyroseq v2 next generation sequencing panel ("Thyroseq") is used to estimate the risk of cancer in indeterminate thyroid nodules. METHODS: We analyzed 156 indeterminate thyroid nodules evaluated with Thyroseq, across 3 institutions. Thyroseq data and surgical pathology were matched via pathologic re-review. A result was considered Thyroseq positive if molecular alterations were annotated on the report with malignancy probability >30%...
January 2018: Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29153481/what-is-the-error-margin-of-your-signature-analysis
#16
Raymond Marquis, Liv Cadola, Williams David Mazzella, Tacha Hicks
In our experience, it seems to become more and more common for mandating authorities or parties to ask forensic signature examiners to quantify the degree of certainty of their conclusion regarding a signature analysis. This paper reports the likelihood ratio approach followed by examiners to answer such a question, in a case where the Court asked whether a questioned signature was written, or not, by Mr Jones. The Court also required an assessment of the error margin of the signature analysis. This question was answered using Bayes' theorem (i...
December 2017: Forensic Science International
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29132741/model-predictive-controller-based-multi-model-control-system-for-longitudinal-stability-of-distributed-drive-electric-vehicle
#17
Ke Shi, Xiaofang Yuan, Liang Liu
Distributed drive electric vehicle(DDEV) has been widely researched recently, its longitudinal stability is a very important research topic. Conventional wheel slip ratio control strategies are usually designed for one special operating mode and the optimal performance cannot be obtained as DDEV works under various operating modes. In this paper, a novel model predictive controller-based multi-model control system (MPC-MMCS) is proposed to solve the longitudinal stability problem of DDEV. Firstly, the operation state of DDEV is summarized as three kinds of typical operating modes...
November 10, 2017: ISA Transactions
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29092890/association-between-monoallelic-tshr-mutations-and-congenital-hypothyroidism-a-statistical-approach
#18
Kiyomi Abe, Satoshi Narumi, Ayuko S Suwanai, Masanori Adachi, Koji Muroya, Yumi Asakura, Keisuke Nagasaki, Takayuki Abe, Tomonobu Hasegawa
OBJECTIVE: Biallelic TSHR mutations cause congenital hypothyroidism (CH). Serum TSH levels of monoallelic mutation carriers range from normal to mildly elevated, and thus the size of its effect remains unclear. The objectives were to examine the association between monoallelic TSHR mutations and positivity at newborn screening (NBS) for CH, and to test whether the association was modified by another genetic factor. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We enrolled 395 patients that had a positive result in NBS and sequenced TSHR...
February 2018: European Journal of Endocrinology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29053466/classification-of-single-cell-gene-expression-trajectories-from-incomplete-and-noisy-data
#19
Alireza Karbalayghareh, Ulisses Braga-Neto, Edward Russell Dougherty
This paper studies classification of gene-expression trajectories coming from two classes, healthy and mutated (cancerous) using Boolean networks with perturbation (BNps) to model the dynamics of each class at the state level. Each class has its own BNp, which is partially known based on gene pathways. We employ a Gaussian model at the observation level to show the expression values of the genes given the hidden binary states at each time point. We use expectation maximization (EM) to learn the BNps and the unknown model parameters, derive closed-form updates for the parameters, and propose a learning algorithm...
October 16, 2017: IEEE/ACM Transactions on Computational Biology and Bioinformatics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28977045/estimation-of-a-closed-population-size-of-tadpoles-in-temporary-pond
#20
M S C S Lima, J Pederassi, C A S Souza
The practice of capture-recapture to estimate the diversity is well known to many animal groups, however this practice in the larval phase of anuran amphibians is incipient. We aimed at evaluating the Lincoln estimator, Venn diagram and Bayes theorem in the inference of population size of a larval phase anurocenose from lotic environment. The adherence of results was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The marking of tadpoles for later recapture and methods measurement was made with eosin methylene blue...
September 28, 2017: Brazilian Journal of Biology, Revista Brasleira de Biologia
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