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Bayes theorem

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29217989/bayesian-inference-of-metal-oxide-ultrathin-film-structure-based-on-crystal-truncation-rod-measurements
#1
Masato Anada, Yoshinori Nakanishi-Ohno, Masato Okada, Tsuyoshi Kimura, Yusuke Wakabayashi
Monte Carlo (MC)-based refinement software to analyze the atomic arrangements of perovskite oxide ultrathin films from the crystal truncation rod intensity is developed on the basis of Bayesian inference. The advantages of the MC approach are (i) it is applicable to multi-domain structures, (ii) it provides the posterior probability of structures through Bayes' theorem, which allows one to evaluate the uncertainty of estimated structural parameters, and (iii) one can involve any information provided by other experiments and theories...
December 1, 2017: Journal of Applied Crystallography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29209139/bayes-theorem-the-roc-diagram-and-reference-values-definition-and-use-in-clinical-diagnosis
#2
REVIEW
Anders Kallner
Medicine is diagnosis, treatment and care. To diagnose is to consider the probability of the cause of discomfort experienced by the patient. The physician may face many options and all decisions are liable to uncertainty to some extent. The rational action is to perform selected tests and thereby increase the pre-test probability to reach a superior post-test probability of a particular option. To draw the right conclusions from a test, certain background information about the performance of the test is necessary...
February 15, 2018: Biochemia Medica: časopis Hrvatskoga Društva Medicinskih Biokemičara
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29156414/schizophrenia-heterogeneity-revisited-clinical-cognitive-and-psychosocial-correlates-of-statistically-derived-negative-symptoms-subgroups
#3
Anthony O Ahmed, Gregory P Strauss, Robert W Buchanan, Brian Kirkpatrick, William T Carpenter
Traditional efforts to delineate the clinical heterogeneity of schizophrenia have been unsuccessful because of the absence of a valid, stable, and meaningful subtyping scheme. A clinically-informed nosology supported by multivariate statistical classification methods may provide a better approach for classifying schizophrenia. The goals of the current study were to 1) use multivariate classification methods to validate a clinical subtyping scheme based on the profile of negative symptoms; and 2) following validation to contrast the statistically-derived subgroups to ascertain distinguishing demographic, clinical, cognitive, and functional characteristics...
November 12, 2017: Journal of Psychiatric Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29154079/clinical-performance-of-a-next-generation-sequencing-assay-thyroseq-v2-in-the-evaluation-of-indeterminate-thyroid-nodules
#4
Aida Taye, Dillon Gurciullo, Brett A Miles, Ashita Gupta, Randall P Owen, William B Inabnet, Jessica N Beyda, Jennifer L Marti
BACKGROUND: Molecular testing with the Thyroseq v2 next generation sequencing panel ("Thyroseq") is used to estimate the risk of cancer in indeterminate thyroid nodules. METHODS: We analyzed 156 indeterminate thyroid nodules evaluated with Thyroseq, across 3 institutions. Thyroseq data and surgical pathology were matched via pathologic re-review. A result was considered Thyroseq positive if molecular alterations were annotated on the report with malignancy probability >30%...
November 16, 2017: Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29153481/what-is-the-error-margin-of-your-signature-analysis
#5
Raymond Marquis, Liv Cadola, Williams David Mazzella, Tacha Hicks
In our experience, it seems to become more and more common for mandating authorities or parties to ask forensic signature examiners to quantify the degree of certainty of their conclusion regarding a signature analysis. This paper reports the likelihood ratio approach followed by examiners to answer such a question, in a case where the Court asked whether a questioned signature was written, or not, by Mr Jones. The Court also required an assessment of the error margin of the signature analysis. This question was answered using Bayes' theorem (i...
November 11, 2017: Forensic Science International
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29132741/model-predictive-controller-based-multi-model-control-system-for-longitudinal-stability-of-distributed-drive-electric-vehicle
#6
Ke Shi, Xiaofang Yuan, Liang Liu
Distributed drive electric vehicle(DDEV) has been widely researched recently, its longitudinal stability is a very important research topic. Conventional wheel slip ratio control strategies are usually designed for one special operating mode and the optimal performance cannot be obtained as DDEV works under various operating modes. In this paper, a novel model predictive controller-based multi-model control system (MPC-MMCS) is proposed to solve the longitudinal stability problem of DDEV. Firstly, the operation state of DDEV is summarized as three kinds of typical operating modes...
November 10, 2017: ISA Transactions
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29092890/association-between-monoallelic-tshr-mutations-and-congenital-hypothyroidism-a-statistical-approach
#7
Kiyomi Abe, Satoshi Narumi, Ayuko Suzuki Suwanai, Masanori Adachi, Koji Muroya, Yumi Asakura, Keisuke Nagasaki, Takayuki Abe, Tomonobu Hasegawa
Objective: Biallelic TSHR mutations cause congenital hypothyroidism (CH). Serum TSH levels of monoallelic TSHR mutation carriers range from normal to mildly elevated, and thus the size of its effect remains unclear. The objectives were to examine the association between monoallelic TSHR mutations and positivity at newborn screening (NBS) for CH, and to test whether the association was modified by another genetic factor. Subjects and methods: We enrolled 395 patients that had a positive result in NBS, and sequenced TSHR Monoallelic TSHR mutation carriers were further sequenced for DUOX2 Molecular functions of the mutations were verified in vitro The frequency of the mutations in the study subjects was compared with a theoretical value in the Japanese general population...
November 1, 2017: European Journal of Endocrinology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29053466/classification-of-single-cell-gene-expression-trajectories-from-incomplete-and-noisy-data
#8
Alireza Karbalayghareh, Ulisses Braga-Neto, Edward Russell Dougherty
This paper studies classification of gene-expression trajectories coming from two classes, healthy and mutated (cancerous) using Boolean networks with perturbation (BNps) to model the dynamics of each class at the state level. Each class has its own BNp, which is partially known based on gene pathways. We employ a Gaussian model at the observation level to show the expression values of the genes given the hidden binary states at each time point. We use expectation maximization (EM) to learn the BNps and the unknown model parameters, derive closed-form updates for the parameters, and propose a learning algorithm...
October 16, 2017: IEEE/ACM Transactions on Computational Biology and Bioinformatics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28977045/estimation-of-a-closed-population-size-of-tadpoles-in-temporary-pond
#9
M S C S Lima, J Pederassi, C A S Souza
The practice of capture-recapture to estimate the diversity is well known to many animal groups, however this practice in the larval phase of anuran amphibians is incipient. We aimed at evaluating the Lincoln estimator, Venn diagram and Bayes theorem in the inference of population size of a larval phase anurocenose from lotic environment. The adherence of results was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The marking of tadpoles for later recapture and methods measurement was made with eosin methylene blue...
September 28, 2017: Brazilian Journal of Biology, Revista Brasleira de Biologia
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28963900/development-and-small-scale-validation-of-a-novel-pigeon-associated-mitochondrial-dna-source-tracking-marker-for-the-detection-of-fecal-contamination-in-harvested-rainwater
#10
M Waso, S Khan, W Khan
The current study was aimed at designing and validating (on a small-scale) a novel pigeon mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) microbial source tracking (MST) marker for the detection of pigeon fecal matter in harvested rainwater. The pigeon mtDNA MST marker was designed to target the mtDNA Cytochrome b gene by employing mismatch amplification mutation assay kinetics. The pigeon marker was validated by screening 69 non-pigeon and 9 pigeon fecal samples. The host-sensitivity of the assay was determined as 1.00 while the host-specificity of the assay was 0...
February 15, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28958571/-evaluation-correction-and-impact-of-non-response-in-studies-of-childhood-obesity
#11
María Isolina Santiago-Pérez, Mónica Pérez-Ríos, Alberto Malvar, Jorge Suanzes, Xurxo Hervada
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and correct the impact of non-response in the prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity in children aged 6 to 15 years old using silhouette scales. METHOD: Cross-sectional study carried out in 2013 among 8,145 Galician schoolchildren aged 6-15 years old. The students who agreed to participate were weighed and measured and, based on body mass index, the prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity was estimated. Teachers rated all students using silhouette scales...
September 25, 2017: Gaceta Sanitaria
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28844288/generalisability-of-prognostic-factor-research-further-analysis-of-data-from-the-iipcos2-study
#12
Anjali Miglani, Lex Rutten, Raj K Manchanda
Prognostic factor research is important as it helps in refining diagnosis, taking clinical and therapeutic decisions, enhances the design and analysis of intervention trials and helps to identify targets for new interventions that aim to modify the course of a disease. Prognostic factor research in homeopathy can be done by applying Bayes' theorem. This paper considers Bayes' theorem; Likelihood Ratio, conditional probability and research in subpopulations of a condition with examples. We analysed the likelihood ratios for 11 homeopathic medicines for the symptom 'cough' and other upper respiratory tract symptoms, based on data from the IIPCOS2 study...
August 2017: Homeopathy: the Journal of the Faculty of Homeopathy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28780393/sample-size-for-tablet-compression-and-capsule-filling-events-during-process-validation
#13
Naseem Ahmad Charoo, Mark Durivage, Ziyaur Rahman, Mohamad Haitham Ayad
During solid dosage form manufacturing, the uniformity of dosage units (UDU) is ensured by testing samples at 2 stages, that is, blend stage and tablet compression or capsule/powder filling stage. The aim of this work is to propose a sample size selection approach based on quality risk management principles for process performance qualification (PPQ) and continued process verification (CPV) stages by linking UDU to potential formulation and process risk factors. Bayes success run theorem appeared to be the most appropriate approach among various methods considered in this work for computing sample size for PPQ...
August 2, 2017: Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28746950/-bayes-theorem-and-base-rate-error-on-the-predictive-value-of-risk-factors-and-screening-tests
#14
Markus Antonius Wirtz
Regularly, risk assessments or decisions are based on dichotomous characteristics or measures. For instance, critical high values in screening tests may indicate an enhanced risk of having a disease. The prevalence of a risk factor (e. g. high blood pressure, depression) may indicate the need of a medical treatment or the occurrence of a negative consequence (e. g. early retirement). In such situations risk assessments are typically based on conditional event rates or conditional event probabilities: What is the risk of having a disease under the condition of having a symptom, risk factor or a critical screening indication? The valid interpretation of conditional event rates poses a considerable challenge for practitioners as well as for rehabilitation patients...
July 26, 2017: Die Rehabilitation
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28716809/determining-clinical-decision-thresholds-for-hiv-positive-patients-suspected-of-having-tuberculosis
#15
Tom Boyles, Isabella Locatelli, Nicolas Senn, Mark Ebell
Clinical decision thresholds may aid the evaluation of diagnostic tests but have rarely been determined for tuberculosis (TB). We presented clinicians with six web-based clinical scenarios, describing patients with HIV and possible TB at various sites and with a range of clinical stability. The probability of disease was varied randomly and clinicians asked to make treatment decisions; threshold curves and therapeutic thresholds were calculated. Test and treatment thresholds were calculated using Bayes theorem and the diagnostic accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF...
August 2017: Evidence-based Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28673674/is-ct-angiography-of-the-pulmonary-arteries-indicated-in-patients-with-high-clinical-probability-of-pulmonary-embolism
#16
L Martínez Montesinos, J M Plasencia Martínez, J M García Santos
When a diagnostic test confirms clinical suspicion, the indicated treatment can be administered. A problem arises when the diagnostic test does not confirm the initially suspected diagnosis; when the suspicion is grounded in clinically validated predictive rules and is high, the problem is even worse. This situation arises in up to 40% of patients with high suspicion for acute pulmonary embolism, raising the question of whether CT angiography of the pulmonary arteries should be done systematically. This paper reviews the literature about this issue and lays out the best evidence about the relevant recommendations for patients with high clinical suspicion of acute pulmonary embolism and negative findings on CT angiography...
June 30, 2017: Radiología
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28657526/useful-of-tokyo-guidelines-in-the-diagnosis-of-acute-cholecystitis-anatomopathologie-correlationship
#17
Christian Janikow, Edgardo Corti, Nicolás Menso, Gastón Moretti, Martín Alé, Martín Sánchez, Paul Eduardo Lada
BACKGROUND: In the year 2007 a group of experts come together to discuss criteria for acute cholecystitis and to establish therapeutic guidelines and states of gravity in this disease. OBJECTIVES: we correlated the criteria of the Tokyo Guidelines 2007 with the anatomopathology study of the surgical specimen. SETTING: Service of Urgencies of the National Clinic Hospital in Córdoba, Argentine. METHODS: We studied 324 patients (120 male and 204 female) older than 15 years and without limits of age with the criteria of acute cholecystitis a cord to the Tokyo guidelines 2007...
2017: Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Médicas
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28650354/prediction-of-hepatocellular-carcinoma-recurrence-beyond-milan-criteria-after-resection-validation-of-a-clinical-risk-score-in-an-international-cohort
#18
MULTICENTER STUDY
Jian Zheng, Joanne F Chou, Mithat Gönen, Neeta Vachharajani, William C Chapman, Maria B Majella Doyle, Simon Turcotte, Franck Vandenbroucke-Menu, Réal Lapointe, Stefan Buettner, Bas Groot Koerkamp, Jan N M Ijzermans, Chung Yip Chan, Brian K P Goh, Jin Yao Teo, Juinn Huar Kam, Prema R Jeyaraj, Peng Chung Cheow, Alexander Y F Chung, Pierce K H Chow, London L P J Ooi, Vinod P Balachandran, T Peter Kingham, Peter J Allen, Michael I D'Angelica, Ronald P DeMatteo, William R Jarnagin, Ser Yee Lee
OBJECTIVE: This study aims to validate a previously reported recurrence clinical risk score (CRS). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Salvage transplantation after hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) resection is limited to patients who recur within Milan criteria (MC). Predicting recurrence patterns may guide treatment recommendations. METHODS: An international, multicenter cohort of R0 resected HCC patients were categorized by MC status at presentation...
October 2017: Annals of Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28589779/faking-handedness-individual-differences-in-ability-to-fake-handedness-social-cognitions-of-the-handedness-of-others-and-a-forensic-application-using-bayes-theorem
#19
I C McManus, Giulia Buckens, Naomi Harris, Alexandra Flint, Hei Ling Abigail Ng, Foteini Vovou
People usually describe their handedness honestly, but that need not necessarily be the case. A legal case is described of a murder said by the pathologist to be committed by a left-hander but the defendant claimed to be right-handed, and the first author assessed the defendant's handedness as an expert witness. We know of no previous work on faking handedness, and so we tested 30 right-handers and 25 left-handers on various handedness tasks, and then asked the participants to repeat the tasks while faking being of opposite handedness...
June 7, 2017: Laterality
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28579595/study-on-the-increased-probability-of-detecting-adverse-drug-reactions-based-on-bayes-theorem-evaluation-of-the-usefulness-of-information-on-the-onset-timing-of-adverse-drug-reactions
#20
Shinji Oshima, Takako Enjuji, Akio Negishi, Hayato Akimoto, Kousuke Ohara, Mitsuyoshi Okita, Sachihiko Numajiri, Naoko Inoue, Shigeru Ohshima, Akira Terao, Daisuke Kobayashi
In order to avoid adverse drug reactions (ADRs), pharmacists are reconstructing ADR-related information based on various types of data gathered from patients, and then providing this information to patients. Among the data provided to patients is the time-to-onset of ADRs after starting the medication (i.e., ADR onset timing information). However, a quantitative evaluation of the effect of onset timing information offered by pharmacists on the probability of ADRs occurring in patients receiving this information has not been reported to date...
June 3, 2017: Biological & Pharmaceutical Bulletin
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