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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29896812/screening-for-pre-eclampsia-by-maternal-factors-and-biomarkers-at-11-13-weeks-gestation
#1
Min Yi Tan, Argyro Syngelaki, Liona C Poon, Daniel L Rolnik, Neil O'Gorman, Juan Luis Delgado, Ranjit Akolekar, Liountmila Konstantinidou, Maria Tsavdaridou, Slavyana Galeva, Ursula Ajdacka, Francisca S Molina, Nicola Persico, Jacques C Jani, Walter Plasencia, Elena Greco, George Papaioannou, Alan Wright, David Wright, Kypros H Nicolaides
OBJECTIVE: To examine the performance of screening for early-, preterm- and term-preeclampsia (PE) at 11-13 weeks' gestation by maternal factors and combinations of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PLGF) and serum pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A). METHODS: The data for this study were derived from three previously reported prospective non-intervention screening studies at 11+0 - 13+6 weeks' gestation in a combined total of 61,174 singleton pregnancies, including 1,770 (2...
June 13, 2018: Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29896778/screening-for-pre-eclampsia-at-35-37-weeks-gestation
#2
Anca Panaitescu, Anca Ciobanu, Argyro Syngelaki, Alan Wright, David Wright, Kypros H Nicolaides
OBJECTIVE: To examine the performance of screening for preeclampsia (PE) at 35-37 weeks' gestation by maternal factors and combinations of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PLGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFLT). METHODS: This was a prospective observational study in women with singleton pregnancies attending for an ultrasound scan at 35+0 - 36+6 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care...
June 13, 2018: Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29878581/tutorial-of-the-probabilistic-methods-bayesian-networks-and-influence-diagrams-applied-to-medicine
#3
Beatriz Nistal-Nuño
Unpredictability arises in numerous real-world implementations especially in medical fields, being one of the principal subjects that expert systems have to deal with. Bayesian networks (BNs) allow constructing expert systems by utilizing likelihood as a measure of uncertainty. A BN is a statistical model that yields a graphical description of the probabilistic associations between a group of pertinent variables. Probabilistic reasoning involves computing the posterior probability of the unobserved variables given the accessible evidence, based on the application of the Bayes theorem...
May 2018: Journal of Evidence-based Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29795934/using-the-coefficient-of-confidence-to-make-the-philosophical-switch-from-a-posteriori-to-a-priori-inferential-statistics
#4
David Trafimow
There has been much controversy over the null hypothesis significance testing procedure, with much of the criticism centered on the problem of inverse inference. Specifically, p gives the probability of the finding (or one more extreme) given the null hypothesis, whereas the null hypothesis significance testing procedure involves drawing a conclusion about the null hypothesis given the finding. Many critics have called for null hypothesis significance tests to be replaced with confidence intervals. However, confidence intervals also suffer from a version of the inverse inference problem...
October 2017: Educational and Psychological Measurement
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29698102/understanding-human-error-in-naval-aviation-mishaps
#5
Andrew T Miranda
OBJECTIVE: To better understand the external factors that influence the performance and decisions of aviators involved in Naval aviation mishaps. BACKGROUND: Mishaps in complex activities, ranging from aviation to nuclear power operations, are often the result of interactions between multiple components within an organization. The Naval aviation mishap database contains relevant information, both in quantitative statistics and qualitative reports, that permits analysis of such interactions to identify how the working atmosphere influences aviator performance and judgment...
April 1, 2018: Human Factors
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29643459/1-5-%C3%A2-c-carbon-budget-dependent-on-carbon-cycle-uncertainty-and-future-non-co-2-forcing
#6
Nadine Mengis, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Jonathan Jalbert, H Damon Matthews
Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF) carbon budget of 469 PgC since 1850, with a 95% likelihood range of (411,528) PgC...
April 11, 2018: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29622302/applied-bayesian-methods-in-the-rheumatic-diseases
#7
REVIEW
Sindhu R Johnson, George A Tomlinson, John T Granton, Gillian A Hawker, Brian M Feldman
The use of applied Bayesian methods is increasing in rheumatology. Using the Bayes theorem, past evidence is updated with new data. Preexisting data are expressed as a prior probability distribution or prior. New observations are expressed as a likelihood. Through explicit incorporation of preexisting data and new data, this process informs how this new information should change the way we think. In this article, the authors highlight the use of applied Bayesian methods in the study of rheumatic diseases.
May 2018: Rheumatic Diseases Clinics of North America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29603503/flawed-statistics-and-science-confirming-existing-paradigms
#8
Lex A L B Rutten
BACKGROUND: Part of the scientific community states that implausible methods cannot have a true effect and that epidemiological proof can only lead to false positives. DISCUSSION: Homeopathy is regarded as an example of an implausible method with false positive evidence. However, epidemiological proof is necessary to falsify the placebo hypothesis. Implausibility is now supposed to rectify selection of a part of all trials, but the applied selection criteria are diverse and not common in conventional medicine...
March 30, 2018: Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29536931/using-bayes-rule-in-diagnostic-testing-a-graphical-explanation
#9
REVIEW
Kevin M Johnson
In the context of diagnostic testing, concepts such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios and more are all interconnected, but precisely how can be confusing to the nonstatistician. This paper presents a graphical explanation. Bayes' rule, or theorem, ties several of these concepts together and should have a role in careful diagnostic thinking. It too can be understood in terms of the "two-by-two diagram" presented here.
September 26, 2017: Diagnosis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29536574/comparison-of-diagnostic-accuracy-of-early-screening-for-pre-eclampsia-by-nice-guidelines-and-a-method-combining-maternal-factors-and-biomarkers-results-of-spree
#10
M Y Tan, D Wright, A Syngelaki, R Akolekar, S Cicero, D Janga, M Singh, E Greco, A Wright, K Maclagan, L C Poon, K H Nicolaides
OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the performance of first-trimester screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) by a method that uses Bayes' theorem to combine maternal factors with biomarkers is superior to that defined by current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. METHODS: This was a prospective multicenter study (screening program for pre-eclampsia (SPREE)) in seven National Health Service maternity hospitals in England, of women recruited between April and December 2016...
March 14, 2018: Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29424559/bayesian-latent-class-analysis-tutorial
#11
Yuelin Li, Jennifer Lord-Bessen, Mariya Shiyko, Rebecca Loeb
This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles...
February 9, 2018: Multivariate Behavioral Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29402826/when-to-screen-ischaemic-stroke-patients-for-cancer
#12
Henriette Aurora Selvik, Anna Therese Bjerkreim, Lars Thomassen, Ulrike Waje-Andreassen, Halvor Naess, Christopher Elnan Kvistad
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Ischemic stroke can be the first manifestation of cancer and it is therefore important to ascertain which stroke patients should be considered for cancer-diagnostic investigations. We aimed to determine the frequency of active cancer in patients with acute ischemic stroke and to compare clinical findings in stroke patients with active cancer to ischemic stroke patients with no history of cancer. Finally, we aimed to develop a predictive and feasible score for clinical use to uncover underlying malignancy...
2018: Cerebrovascular Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29389938/skill-or-lack-thereof-of-data-model-fusion-techniques-to-provide-an-early-warning-signal-for-an-approaching-tipping-point
#13
Riddhi Singh, Julianne D Quinn, Patrick M Reed, Klaus Keller
Many coupled human-natural systems have the potential to exhibit a highly nonlinear threshold response to external forcings resulting in fast transitions to undesirable states (such as eutrophication in a lake). Often, there are considerable uncertainties that make identifying the threshold challenging. Thus, rapid learning is critical for guiding management actions to avoid abrupt transitions. Here, we adopt the shallow lake problem as a test case to compare the performance of four common data assimilation schemes to predict an approaching transition...
2018: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29327266/social-targets-improve-body-based-and-environment-based-strategies-during-spatial-navigation
#14
Esther Kuehn, Xiaoli Chen, Pia Geise, Jan Oltmer, Thomas Wolbers
Encoding the position of another person in space is vital for everyday life. Nevertheless, little is known about the specific navigational strategies associated with encoding the position of another person in the wider spatial environment. We asked two groups of participants to learn the location of a target (person or object) during active navigation, while optic flow information, a landmark, or both optic flow information and a landmark were available in a virtual environment. Whereas optic flow information is used for body-based encoding, such as the simulation of motor movements, landmarks are used to form an abstract, disembodied representation of the environment...
March 2018: Experimental Brain Research. Experimentelle Hirnforschung. Expérimentation Cérébrale
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29322097/toward-a-leading-indicator-of-catastrophic-shifts-in-complex-systems-assessing-changing-conditions-in-nation-states
#15
Leisha Vance, Tarsha Eason, Heriberto Cabezas, Michael E Gorman
The 20th century was characterized by substantial change on a global scale. There were multiple wars and unrest, social and political transitions, technological innovation and widespread development that impacted every corner of the earth. In order to assess the sustainability implications of these changes, we conducted a study of three advanced nations particularly affected during this time: France, Germany and the United States (USA). All three nation states withstood these changes and yet continued to thrive, which speaks to their resilience...
December 2017: Heliyon
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29242838/a-dirichlet-multinomial-bayes-classifier-for-disease-diagnosis-with-microbial-compositions
#16
Xiang Gao, Huaiying Lin, Qunfeng Dong
Dysbiosis of microbial communities is associated with various human diseases, raising the possibility of using microbial compositions as biomarkers for disease diagnosis. We have developed a Bayes classifier by modeling microbial compositions with Dirichlet-multinomial distributions, which are widely used to model multicategorical count data with extra variation. The parameters of the Dirichlet-multinomial distributions are estimated from training microbiome data sets based on maximum likelihood. The posterior probability of a microbiome sample belonging to a disease or healthy category is calculated based on Bayes' theorem, using the likelihood values computed from the estimated Dirichlet-multinomial distribution, as well as a prior probability estimated from the training microbiome data set or previously published information on disease prevalence...
November 2017: MSphere
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29217989/bayesian-inference-of-metal-oxide-ultrathin-film-structure-based-on-crystal-truncation-rod-measurements
#17
Masato Anada, Yoshinori Nakanishi-Ohno, Masato Okada, Tsuyoshi Kimura, Yusuke Wakabayashi
Monte Carlo (MC)-based refinement software to analyze the atomic arrangements of perovskite oxide ultrathin films from the crystal truncation rod intensity is developed on the basis of Bayesian inference. The advantages of the MC approach are (i) it is applicable to multi-domain structures, (ii) it provides the posterior probability of structures through Bayes' theorem, which allows one to evaluate the uncertainty of estimated structural parameters, and (iii) one can involve any information provided by other experiments and theories...
December 1, 2017: Journal of Applied Crystallography
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29209139/bayes-theorem-the-roc-diagram-and-reference-values-definition-and-use-in-clinical-diagnosis
#18
REVIEW
Anders Kallner
Medicine is diagnosis, treatment and care. To diagnose is to consider the probability of the cause of discomfort experienced by the patient. The physician may face many options and all decisions are liable to uncertainty to some extent. The rational action is to perform selected tests and thereby increase the pre-test probability to reach a superior post-test probability of a particular option. To draw the right conclusions from a test, certain background information about the performance of the test is necessary...
February 15, 2018: Biochemia Medica: časopis Hrvatskoga Društva Medicinskih Biokemičara
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29156414/schizophrenia-heterogeneity-revisited-clinical-cognitive-and-psychosocial-correlates-of-statistically-derived-negative-symptoms-subgroups
#19
Anthony O Ahmed, Gregory P Strauss, Robert W Buchanan, Brian Kirkpatrick, William T Carpenter
Traditional efforts to delineate the clinical heterogeneity of schizophrenia have been unsuccessful because of the absence of a valid, stable, and meaningful subtyping scheme. A clinically-informed nosology supported by multivariate statistical classification methods may provide a better approach for classifying schizophrenia. The goals of the current study were to 1) use multivariate classification methods to validate a clinical subtyping scheme based on the profile of negative symptoms; and 2) following validation to contrast the statistically-derived subgroups to ascertain distinguishing demographic, clinical, cognitive, and functional characteristics...
February 2018: Journal of Psychiatric Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29154079/clinical-performance-of-a-next-generation-sequencing-assay-thyroseq-v2-in-the-evaluation-of-indeterminate-thyroid-nodules
#20
Aida Taye, Dillon Gurciullo, Brett A Miles, Ashita Gupta, Randall P Owen, William B Inabnet, Jessica N Beyda, Jennifer L Marti
BACKGROUND: Molecular testing with the Thyroseq v2 next generation sequencing panel ("Thyroseq") is used to estimate the risk of cancer in indeterminate thyroid nodules. METHODS: We analyzed 156 indeterminate thyroid nodules evaluated with Thyroseq, across 3 institutions. Thyroseq data and surgical pathology were matched via pathologic re-review. A result was considered Thyroseq positive if molecular alterations were annotated on the report with malignancy probability >30%...
January 2018: Surgery
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