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Mathematical model tuberculosis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27879115/preface
#1
Avner Friedman, Mirosław Lachowicz, Urszula Ledzewicz, Monika Joanna Piotrowska, Zuzanna Szymanska
This volume was inspired by the topics presented at the international conference "Micro and Macro Systems in Life Sciences" which was held on Jun 8-12, 2015 in Będlewo, Poland. System biology is an approach which tries to understand how micro systems, at the molecular and cellular levels, affect macro systems such as organs, tissue and populations. Thus it is not surprising that a major theme of this volume evolves around cancer and its treatment. Articles on this topic include models for tumor induced angiogenesis, without and with delays, metastatic niche of the bone marrow, drug resistance and metronomic chemotherapy, and virotherapy of glioma...
February 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27816373/the-tb-vaccine-h56-ic31-dose-response-curve-is-peaked-not-saturating-data-generation-for-new-mathematical-modelling-methods-to-inform-vaccine-dose-decisions
#2
Sophie J Rhodes, Andrea Zelmer, Gwenan M Knight, Satria Arief Prabowo, Lisa Stockdale, Thomas G Evans, Thomas Lindenstrøm, Richard G White, Helen Fletcher
INTRODUCTION: In vaccine development, dose-response curves are commonly assumed to be saturating. Evidence from tuberculosis (TB) vaccine, H56+IC31 shows this may be incorrect. Mathematical modelling techniques may be useful in efficiently identifying the most immunogenic dose, but model calibration requires longitudinal data across multiple doses and time points. AIMS: We aimed to (i) generate longitudinal response data in mice for a wide range of H56+IC31 doses for use in future mathematical modelling and (ii) test whether a 'saturating' or 'peaked' dose-response curve, better fit the empirical data...
December 7, 2016: Vaccine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27810870/implementation-of-a-collaborative-series-of-classroom-based-undergraduate-research-experiences-spanning-chemical-biology-biochemistry-and-neurobiology
#3
Jennifer R Kowalski, Geoffrey C Hoops, R Jeremy Johnson
Classroom undergraduate research experiences (CUREs) provide students access to the measurable benefits of undergraduate research experiences (UREs). Herein, we describe the implementation and assessment of a novel model for cohesive CUREs focused on central research themes involving faculty research collaboration across departments. Specifically, we implemented three collaborative CUREs spanning chemical biology, biochemistry, and neurobiology that incorporated faculty members' research interests and revolved around the central theme of visualizing biological processes like Mycobacterium tuberculosis enzyme activity and neural signaling using fluorescent molecules...
2016: CBE Life Sciences Education
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27807274/diverse-drug-resistant-subpopulations-of-mycobacterium-tuberculosis-are-sustained-in-continuous-culture
#4
Diepreye Ayabina, Charlotte Hendon-Dunn, Joanna Bacon, Caroline Colijn
Drug resistance to tuberculosis (TB) has become more widespread over the past decade. As such, understanding the emergence and fitness of antibiotic-resistant subpopulations is crucial for the development of new interventions. Here we use a simple mathematical model to explain the differences in the response to isoniazid (INH) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis cells cultured under two growth rates in a chemostat. We obtain posterior distributions of model parameters consistent with data using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method...
November 2016: Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27782966/benefits-of-continuous-isoniazid-preventive-therapy-may-outweigh-resistance-risks-in-a-declining-tuberculosis-hiv-coepidemic
#5
Amber Kunkel, Forrest W Crawford, James Shepherd, Ted Cohen
OBJECTIVE: Extending the duration of isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) may improve its effectiveness at both individual and population levels, but could also increase selective pressure in favor of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis (TB) strains. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of these two effects. METHODS: Transmission dynamic model. DESIGN: We created a mathematical model of TB transmission incorporating HIV incidence and treatment, mixed strain latent TB infections, and four different phenotypes of TB drug resistance (pan-susceptible, isoniazid monoresistant, rifampicin monoresistant, and multidrug resistant)...
November 13, 2016: AIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27780211/the-global-burden-of-latent-tuberculosis-infection-a-re-estimation-using-mathematical-modelling
#6
Rein M G J Houben, Peter J Dodd
BACKGROUND: The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI) as "one-third" of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI) for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011) and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014...
October 2016: PLoS Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27775384/a-two-strain-tb-model-with-multiple-latent-stages
#7
Azizeh Jabbari, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Fereshteh Nazari, Baojun Song, Hossein Kheiri
A two-strain tuberculosis (TB) transmission model incorporating antibiotic-generated TB resistant strains and long and variable waiting periods within the latently infected class is introduced. The mathematical analysis is carried out when the waiting periods are modeled via parametrically friendly gamma distributions, a reasonable alternative to the use of exponential distributed waiting periods or to integral equations involving ``arbitrary'' distributions. The model supports a globally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium when the reproduction number is less than one and an endemic equilibriums, shown to be locally asymptotically stable, or l...
August 1, 2016: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27742639/concentration-dependent-synergy-and-antagonism-of-linezolid-and-moxifloxacin-in-the-treatment-of-childhood-tuberculosis-the-dynamic-duo
#8
Devyani Deshpande, Shashikant Srivastava, Eric Nuermberger, Jotam G Pasipanodya, Soumya Swaminathan, Tawanda Gumbo
BACKGROUND:  No treatment regimens have been specifically designed for children, in whom tuberculosis is predominantly intracellular. Given their activity as monotherapy and their ability to penetrate many diseased anatomic sites that characterize disseminated tuberculosis, linezolid and moxifloxacin could be combined to form a regimen for this need. METHODS:  We examined microbial kill of intracellular Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) by the combination of linezolid and moxifloxacin multiple exposures in a 7-by-7 mathematical matrix...
November 1, 2016: Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27720688/feasibility-of-achieving-the-2025-who-global-tuberculosis-targets-in-south-africa-china-and-india-a-combined-analysis-of-11-mathematical-models
#9
Rein M G J Houben, Nicolas A Menzies, Tom Sumner, Grace H Huynh, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, Hsien-Ho Lin, Chieh-Yin Wu, Sandip Mandal, Surabhi Pandey, Sze-Chuan Suen, Eran Bendavid, Andrew S Azman, David W Dowdy, Nicolas Bacaër, Allison S Rhines, Marcus W Feldman, Andreas Handel, Christopher C Whalen, Stewart T Chang, Bradley G Wagner, Philip A Eckhoff, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Emma S McBryde, Ted Cohen, Joshua A Salomon, Carel Pretorius, Marek Lalli, Jeffrey W Eaton, Delia Boccia, Mehran Hosseini, Gabriela B Gomez, Suvanand Sahu, Colleen Daniels, Lucica Ditiu, Daniel P Chin, Lixia Wang, Vineet K Chadha, Kiran Rade, Puneet Dewan, Piotr Hippner, Salome Charalambous, Alison D Grant, Gavin Churchyard, Yogan Pillay, L David Mametja, Michael E Kimerling, Anna Vassall, Richard G White
BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. METHODS: 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa...
November 2016: Lancet Global Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27633883/the-potential-impact-of-bcg-vaccine-supply-shortages-on-global-paediatric-tuberculosis-mortality
#10
Rebecca C Harris, Peter J Dodd, Richard G White
BACKGROUND: The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is provided to over 100 million neonates annually to protect against childhood tuberculosis (TB). Recent BCG manufacturing interruptions highlight global supply risks. We estimated the potential impact of BCG shortfalls on global paediatric (<15 years) TB mortality. METHODS: A static mathematical model was employed to estimate the number of paediatric TB deaths avoided by usual levels of BCG coverage, and potential additional TB deaths in the first 15 years of life due to 1-year BCG supply shortfalls of 6...
2016: BMC Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27589214/identifying-components-for-programmatic-latent-tuberculosis-infection-control-in-the-european-union
#11
Andreas Sandgren, Jannigje M Vonk Noordegraaf-Schouten, Anouk M Oordt-Speets, Gerarda B van Kessel, Sake J de Vlas, Marieke J van der Werf
Individuals with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are the reservoir of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a population and as long as this reservoir exists, elimination of tuberculosis (TB) will not be feasible. In 2013, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) started an assessment of benefits and risks of introducing programmatic LTBI control, with the aim of providing guidance on how to incorporate LTBI control into national TB strategies in European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) Member States and candidate countries...
August 25, 2016: Euro Surveillance: Bulletin Européen sur les Maladies Transmissibles, European Communicable Disease Bulletin
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27536981/benefits-of-continuous-isoniazid-preventive-therapy-may-outweigh-resistance-risks-in-a-declining-tb-hiv-co-epidemic
#12
Amber Kunkel, Forrest W Crawford, James Shepherd, Ted Cohen
OBJECTIVE: Extending the duration of isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) may improve its effectiveness at both the individual and population level, but could also increase selective pressure in favor of isoniazid resistant tuberculosis (TB) strains. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of these two effects. METHODS: Transmission dynamic model DESIGN:: We created a mathematical model of TB transmission incorporating HIV incidence and treatment, mixed strain latent TB infections, and four different phenotypes of TB drug resistance (pan-susceptible, isoniazid mono-resistant, rifampicin mono-resistant, and multi-drug resistant)...
August 17, 2016: AIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27457933/controlled-fire-use-in-early-humans-might-have-triggered-the-evolutionary-emergence-of-tuberculosis
#13
Rebecca H Chisholm, James M Trauer, Darren Curnoe, Mark M Tanaka
Tuberculosis (TB) is caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC), a wildly successful group of organisms and the leading cause of death resulting from a single bacterial pathogen worldwide. It is generally accepted that MTBC established itself in human populations in Africa and that animal-infecting strains diverged from human strains. However, the precise causal factors of TB emergence remain unknown. Here, we propose that the advent of controlled fire use in early humans created the ideal conditions for the emergence of TB as a transmissible disease...
August 9, 2016: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27448625/systematic-review-of-mathematical-models-exploring-the-epidemiological-impact-of-future-tb-vaccines
#14
Rebecca C Harris, Tom Sumner, Gwenan M Knight, Richard G White
Mathematical models are useful for assessing the potential epidemiological impact of future tuberculosis (TB) vaccines. We conducted a systematic review of mathematical models estimating the epidemiological impact of future human TB vaccines. PubMed, Embase and WHO Global Health Library were searched, 3-stage manual sifted, and citation- and reference-tracked, identifying 23 papers. An adapted quality assessment tool was developed, with a resulting median study quality score of 20/28. The literature remains divided as to whether vaccines effective pre- or post-infection would provide greatest epidemiological impact...
November 2016: Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27427455/the-perfect-storm-incarceration-and-the-high-risk-environment-perpetuating-transmission-of-hiv-hepatitis-c-virus-and-tuberculosis-in-eastern-europe-and-central-asia
#15
REVIEW
Frederick L Altice, Lyuba Azbel, Jack Stone, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Pavlo Smyrnov, Sergii Dvoriak, Faye S Taxman, Nabila El-Bassel, Natasha K Martin, Robert Booth, Heino Stöver, Kate Dolan, Peter Vickerman
Despite global reductions in HIV incidence and mortality, the 15 UNAIDS-designated countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) that gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 constitute the only region where both continue to rise. HIV transmission in EECA is fuelled primarily by injection of opioids, with harsh criminalisation of drug use that has resulted in extraordinarily high levels of incarceration. Consequently, people who inject drugs, including those with HIV, hepatitis C virus, and tuberculosis, are concentrated within prisons...
September 17, 2016: Lancet
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27379030/quantifying-limits-on-replication-death-and-quiescence-of-mycobacterium-tuberculosis-in-mice
#16
Margaret M McDaniel, Nitin Krishna, Winode G Handagama, Shigetoshi Eda, Vitaly V Ganusov
When an individual is exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) three outcomes are possible: bacterial clearance, active disease, or latent infection. It is generally believed that most individuals exposed to Mtb become latently infected and carry the mycobacteria for life. How Mtb is maintained during this latent infection remains largely unknown. During an Mtb infection in mice, there is a phase of rapid increase in bacterial numbers in the murine lungs within the first 3 weeks, and then bacterial numbers either stabilize or increase slowly over the period of many months...
2016: Frontiers in Microbiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27342768/global-burden-of-drug-resistant-tuberculosis-in-children-a-mathematical-modelling-study
#17
Peter J Dodd, Charalambos Sismanidis, James A Seddon
BACKGROUND: After infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, children are at an increased risk of progression to tuberculosis disease; a condition that can be challenging to diagnose. New estimation approaches for children have highlighted the gap between incidence and notifications of M tuberculosis, and suggest there are more cases of isoniazid-resistant and multidrug-resistant (MDR) disease than are identified. No work has yet quantified the burden of drug-resistant infection, or accounted for other types of drug resistance or sampling uncertainty...
October 2016: Lancet Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27293887/tuberculosis-case-finding-in-benin-2000-2014-and-beyond-a-retrospective-cohort-and-time-series-study
#18
Serge Ade, Wilfried Békou, Mênonli Adjobimey, Omer Adjibode, Gabriel Ade, Anthony D Harries, Séverin Anagonou
Objective. To determine any changes in tuberculosis epidemiology in the last 15 years in Benin, seasonal variations, and forecasted numbers of tuberculosis cases in the next five years. Materials and Methods. Retrospective cohort and time series study of all tuberculosis cases notified between 2000 and 2014. The "R" software version 3.2.1 (Institute for Statistics and Mathematics Vienna Austria) and the Box-Jenkins 1976 modeling approach were used for time series analysis. Results. Of 246943 presumptive cases, 54303 (22%) were diagnosed with tuberculosis...
2016: Tuberculosis Research and Treatment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27279355/the-cost-effectiveness-of-treating-triple-coinfection-with-hiv-tuberculosis-and-hepatitis-c-virus
#19
G Sánchez-González
OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of treating patients infected with HIV and simultaneously coinfected with tuberculosis (TB) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). METHODS: A mathematical model for HIV coinfection with TB and HCV is introduced. The model was designed to incorporate parameters of control for the coverage of care, which makes it useful for performing cost-effectiveness analysis of public policies. A cost-effectiveness analysis of early medical care of patients with TB and HCV coinfection, with coverage of 0 (basal), 25, 50, 75 and 100%, was performed for the whole cohort of patients and a special analysis was performed in a selected population with triple infection...
October 2016: HIV Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27242697/mathematical-models-of-tuberculosis-reactivation-and-relapse
#20
Robert S Wallis
The natural history of human infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is highly variable, as is the response to treatment of active tuberculosis. There is presently no direct means to identify individuals in whom Mtb infection has been eradicated, whether by a bactericidal immune response or sterilizing antimicrobial chemotherapy. Mathematical models can assist in such circumstances by measuring or predicting events that cannot be directly observed. The 3 models discussed in this review illustrate instances in which mathematical models were used to identify individuals with innate resistance to Mtb infection, determine the etiologic mechanism of tuberculosis in patients treated with tumor necrosis factor blockers, and predict the risk of relapse in persons undergoing tuberculosis treatment...
2016: Frontiers in Microbiology
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