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Mathematical model tuberculosis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28807188/the-global-burden-of-tuberculosis-mortality-in-children-a-mathematical-modelling-study
#1
Peter J Dodd, Courtney M Yuen, Charalambos Sismanidis, James A Seddon, Helen E Jenkins
BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis in children is increasingly recognised as an important component of the global tuberculosis burden, with an estimated 1 million cases in 2015. Although younger children are vulnerable to severe forms of tuberculosis disease, no age-disaggregated estimates of paediatric tuberculosis mortality exist, and tuberculosis has never been included in official estimates of under-5 child mortality. We aimed to produce a global mortality burden estimate in children using a complementary approach not dependent on vital registration data...
September 2017: Lancet Global Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28575450/universal-attenuators-and-their-interactions-with-feedback-loops-in-gene-regulatory-networks
#2
Dianbo Liu, Luca Albergante, Timothy J Newman
Using a combination of mathematical modelling, statistical simulation and large-scale data analysis we study the properties of linear regulatory chains (LRCs) within gene regulatory networks (GRNs). Our modelling indicates that downstream genes embedded within LRCs are highly insulated from the variation in expression of upstream genes, and thus LRCs act as attenuators. This observation implies a progressively weaker functionality of LRCs as their length increases. When analyzing the preponderance of LRCs in the GRNs of Escherichia coli K12 and several other organisms, we find that very long LRCs are essentially absent...
June 1, 2017: Nucleic Acids Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28558651/a-user-friendly-mathematical-modelling-web-interface-to-assist-local-decision-making-in-the-fight-against-drug-resistant-tuberculosis
#3
Romain Ragonnet, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Ben J Marais, Emma S McBryde
Multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) represent an important challenge for global tuberculosis (TB) control. The high rates of MDR/RR-TB observed among re-treatment cases can arise from diverse pathways: de novo amplification during initial treatment, inappropriate treatment of undiagnosed MDR/RR-TB, relapse despite appropriate treatment, or reinfection with MDR/RR-TB. Mathematical modelling allows quantification of the contribution made by these pathways in different settings...
May 30, 2017: BMC Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28499828/estimating-the-future-burden-of-multidrug-resistant-and-extensively-drug-resistant-tuberculosis-in-india-the-philippines-russia-and-south-africa-a-mathematical-modelling-study
#4
Aditya Sharma, Andrew Hill, Ekaterina Kurbatova, Martie van der Walt, Charlotte Kvasnovsky, Thelma E Tupasi, Janice C Caoili, Maria Tarcela Gler, Grigory V Volchenkov, Boris Y Kazennyy, Olga V Demikhova, Jaime Bayona, Carmen Contreras, Martin Yagui, Vaira Leimane, Sang Nae Cho, Hee Jin Kim, Kai Kliiman, Somsak Akksilp, Ruwen Jou, Julia Ershova, Tracy Dalton, Peter Cegielski
BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. METHODS: We calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa...
July 2017: Lancet Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28472445/defining-the-population-attributable-fraction-for-infectious-diseases
#5
Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Leon Danon
Background: The population attributable fraction (PAF) is used to quantify the contribution of a risk group to disease burden. For infectious diseases, high-risk individuals may increase disease risk for the wider population in addition to themselves; therefore methods are required to estimate the PAF for infectious diseases. Methods: A mathematical model of disease transmission in a population with a high-risk group was used to compare existing approaches for calculating the PAF...
May 4, 2017: International Journal of Epidemiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28284250/estimating-tuberculosis-incidence-from-primary-survey-data-a-mathematical-modeling-approach
#6
S Pandey, V K Chadha, R Laxminarayan, N Arinaminpathy
BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for improved estimations of the burden of tuberculosis (TB). OBJECTIVE: To develop a new quantitative method based on mathematical modelling, and to demonstrate its application to TB in India. DESIGN: We developed a simple model of TB transmission dynamics to estimate the annual incidence of TB disease from the annual risk of tuberculous infection and prevalence of smear-positive TB. We first compared model estimates for annual infections per smear-positive TB case using previous empirical estimates from China, Korea and the Philippines...
April 1, 2017: International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28263840/a-mathematical-model-predicting-host-mitochondrial-pyruvate-transporter-activity-to-be-a-critical-regulator-of-mycobacterium-tuberculosis-pathogenicity
#7
Parul Mehrotra, Kanury V S Rao, Samrat Chatterjee
Modulation of host metabolic machinery by Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a well established phenomenon. In our earlier study (Mehrotra et al., 2014), we observed a marked increase in acetyl-CoA levels in cells bearing virulent M. tuberculosis infections compared to host cells harbouring avirulent infections. The difference was observed inspite of similar levels of total host cellular pyruvate in both infection types. The present study aimed in capturing the cause for such a phenomenon that defines the pathogenicity of M...
May 2017: Bio Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28253922/counting-the-lives-saved-by-dots-in-india-a-model-based-approach
#8
Sandip Mandal, Vineet K Chadha, Ramanan Laxminarayan, Nimalan Arinaminpathy
BACKGROUND: Against the backdrop of renewed efforts to control tuberculosis (TB) worldwide, there is a need for improved methods to estimate the public health impact of TB programmes. Such methods should not only address the improved outcomes amongst those receiving care but should also account for the impact of TB services on reducing transmission. METHODS: Vital registration data in India are not sufficiently reliable for estimates of TB mortality. As an alternative approach, we developed a mathematical model of TB transmission dynamics and mortality, capturing the scale-up of DOTS in India, through the rollout of the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP)...
March 3, 2017: BMC Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28163165/the-risk-of-global-epidemic-replacement-with-drug-resistant-mycobacterium-tuberculosis-strains
#9
REVIEW
Emma S McBryde, Michael T Meehan, Tan N Doan, Romain Ragonnet, Ben J Marais, Vanina Guernier, James M Trauer
OBJECTIVES: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a threat to tuberculosis (TB) control. To guide TB control, it is essential to understand the extent to which and the circumstances in which MDR-TB will replace drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB) as the dominant phenotype. The issue was examined by assessing evidence from genomics, pharmacokinetics, and epidemiology studies. This evidence was then synthesized into a mathematical model. METHODS: This model considers two TB strains, one with and one without an MDR phenotype...
March 2017: International Journal of Infectious Diseases: IJID
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28152056/transmission-dynamics-and-elimination-potential-of-zoonotic-tuberculosis-in-morocco
#10
Mahamat Fayiz Abakar, Hind Yahyaoui Azami, Philipp Justus Bless, Lisa Crump, Petra Lohmann, Mirjam Laager, Nakul Chitnis, Jakob Zinsstag
Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an endemic zoonosis in Morocco caused by Mycobacterium bovis, which infects many domestic animals and is transmitted to humans through consumption of raw milk or from contact with infected animals. The prevalence of BTB in Moroccan cattle is estimated at 18%, and 33% at the individual and the herd level respectively, but the human M. bovis burden needs further clarification. The current control strategy based on test and slaughter should be improved through local context adaptation taking into account a suitable compensation in order to reduce BTB prevalence in Morocco and decrease the disease burden in humans and animals...
February 2017: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28129769/the-role-of-mobility-and-health-disparities-on-the-transmission-dynamics-of-tuberculosis
#11
Victor Moreno, Baltazar Espinoza, Kamal Barley, Marlio Paredes, Derdei Bichara, Anuj Mubayi, Carlos Castillo-Chavez
BACKGROUND: The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals' residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates...
January 28, 2017: Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092959/mixed-vaccination-strategy-for-the-control-of-tuberculosis-a-case-study-in-china
#12
Siyu Liu, Yong Li, Yingjie Bi, Qingdao Huang
This study first presents a mathematical model of TB transmission considering BCG vaccination compartment to investigate the transmission dynamics nowadays. Based on data reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the basic reproduction number is estimated approximately as R0=1.1892. To reach the new End TB goal raised by WHO in 2015, considering the health system in China, we design a mixed vaccination strategy. Theoretical analysis indicates that the infectious population asymptotically tends to zero with the new vaccination strategy which is the combination of constant vaccination and pulse vaccination...
June 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28086846/stochastic-agent-based-modeling-of-tuberculosis-in-canadian-indigenous-communities
#13
Ashleigh R Tuite, Victor Gallant, Elaine Randell, Annie-Claude Bourgeois, Amy L Greer
BACKGROUND: In Canada, active tuberculosis (TB) disease rates remain disproportionately higher among the Indigenous population, especially among the Inuit in the north. We used mathematical modeling to evaluate how interventions might enhance existing TB control efforts in a region of Nunavut. METHODS: We developed a stochastic, agent-based model of TB transmission that captured the unique household and community structure. Evaluated interventions included: (i) rapid treatment of active cases; (ii) rapid contact tracing; (iii) expanded screening programs for latent TB infection (LTBI); and (iv) reduced household density...
January 13, 2017: BMC Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28077441/using-data-from-macaques-to-predict-gamma-interferon-responses-after-mycobacterium-bovis-bcg-vaccination-in-humans-a-proof-of-concept-study-of-immunostimulation-immunodynamic-modeling-methods
#14
Sophie J Rhodes, Charlotte Sarfas, Gwenan M Knight, Andrew White, Ansar A Pathan, Helen McShane, Thomas G Evans, Helen Fletcher, Sally Sharpe, Richard G White
Macaques play a central role in the development of human tuberculosis (TB) vaccines. Immune and challenge responses differ across macaque and human subpopulations. We used novel immunostimulation/immunodynamic modeling methods in a proof-of-concept study to determine which macaque subpopulations best predicted immune responses in different human subpopulations. Data on gamma interferon (IFN-γ)-secreting CD4(+) T cells over time after recent Mycobacterium bovis BCG vaccination were available for 55 humans and 81 macaques...
March 2017: Clinical and Vaccine Immunology: CVI
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28061832/high-rates-of-multidrug-resistant-and-rifampicin-resistant-tuberculosis-among-re-treatment-cases-where-do-they-come-from
#15
Romain Ragonnet, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Ben J Marais, Emma S McBryde
BACKGROUND: Globally 3.9% of new and 21% of re-treatment tuberculosis (TB) cases are multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR), which is often interpreted as evidence that drug resistance results mainly from poor treatment adherence. This study aims to assess the respective contributions of the different causal pathways leading to MDR/RR-TB at re-treatment. METHODS: We use a simple mathematical model to simulate progression between the different stages of disease and treatment for patients diagnosed with TB...
January 6, 2017: BMC Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28043620/implementation-of-new-tools-for-multidrug-resistant-tuberculosis-detection-and-control
#16
Robin M Warren
Contrary to classical dogma, molecular epidemiological studies and mathematical modeling clearly show that the global drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) epidemic is driven by transmission. Furthermore, there is mounting evidence demonstrating that amplification of resistance occurs during treatment, possibly as a result of insufficient active drugs being administered. To control the drug-resistant TB epidemic, it will be essential to implement new, rapid, and highly sensitive and specific diagnostic methods to decrease the diagnostic delay associated with culture-based testing...
December 2016: International Journal of Mycobacteriology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27956422/a-multistrain-mathematical-model-to-investigate-the-role-of-pyrazinamide-in-the-emergence-of-extensively-drug-resistant-tuberculosis
#17
Mariam O Fofana, Sourya Shrestha, Gwenan M Knight, Ted Cohen, Richard G White, Frank Cobelens, David W Dowdy
Several infectious diseases of global importance-e.g., HIV infection and tuberculosis (TB)-require prolonged treatment with combination antimicrobial regimens typically involving high-potency core agents coupled with additional companion drugs that protect against the de novo emergence of mutations conferring resistance to the core agents. Often, the most effective (or least toxic) companion agents are reused in sequential (first-line, second-line, etc.) regimens. We used a multistrain model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in Southeast Asia to investigate how this practice might facilitate the emergence of extensive drug resistance, i...
March 2017: Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27931676/passive-case-finding-for-tuberculosis-is-not-enough
#18
REVIEW
Jennifer Ho, Greg J Fox, Ben J Marais
Current World Health Organisation targets calling for an end to the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2035 require a dramatic improvement in current case-detection strategies. A reliance on passive case finding (PCF) has resulted consistently, in over three million infectious TB cases per year, being missed by the health system, leading to ongoing transmission of infection within families and communities. Active case finding (ACF) for TB has been recognized as an important complementary strategy to PCF, in order to diagnose and treat patients earlier, reducing the period of infectiousness and therefore transmission...
December 2016: International Journal of Mycobacteriology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27879115/preface
#19
Avner Friedman, Mirosław Lachowicz, Urszula Ledzewicz, Monika Joanna Piotrowska, Zuzanna Szymanska
This volume was inspired by the topics presented at the international conference "Micro and Macro Systems in Life Sciences" which was held on Jun 8-12, 2015 in Będlewo, Poland. System biology is an approach which tries to understand how micro systems, at the molecular and cellular levels, affect macro systems such as organs, tissue and populations. Thus it is not surprising that a major theme of this volume evolves around cancer and its treatment. Articles on this topic include models for tumor induced angiogenesis, without and with delays, metastatic niche of the bone marrow, drug resistance and metronomic chemotherapy, and virotherapy of glioma...
February 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27816373/the-tb-vaccine-h56-ic31-dose-response-curve-is-peaked-not-saturating-data-generation-for-new-mathematical-modelling-methods-to-inform-vaccine-dose-decisions
#20
Sophie J Rhodes, Andrea Zelmer, Gwenan M Knight, Satria Arief Prabowo, Lisa Stockdale, Thomas G Evans, Thomas Lindenstrøm, Richard G White, Helen Fletcher
INTRODUCTION: In vaccine development, dose-response curves are commonly assumed to be saturating. Evidence from tuberculosis (TB) vaccine, H56+IC31 shows this may be incorrect. Mathematical modelling techniques may be useful in efficiently identifying the most immunogenic dose, but model calibration requires longitudinal data across multiple doses and time points. AIMS: We aimed to (i) generate longitudinal response data in mice for a wide range of H56+IC31 doses for use in future mathematical modelling and (ii) test whether a 'saturating' or 'peaked' dose-response curve, better fit the empirical data...
December 7, 2016: Vaccine
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