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Mathematical model tuberculosis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29116641/mathematical-models-for-the-epidemiology-and-evolution-of-mycobacterium-tuberculosis
#1
Jūlija Pečerska, James Wood, Mark M Tanaka, Tanja Stadler
This chapter reviews the use of mathematical and computational models to facilitate understanding of the epidemiology and evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. First, we introduce general epidemiological models, and describe their use with respect to epidemiological dynamics of a single strain and of multiple strains of M. tuberculosis. In particular, we discuss multi-strain models that include drug sensitivity and drug resistance. Second, we describe models for the evolution of M. tuberculosis within and between hosts, and how the resulting diversity of strains can be assessed by considering the evolutionary relationships among different strains...
2017: Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29068470/aspartate-%C3%AE-semialdeyhyde-dehydrogenase-as-a-potential-therapeutic-target-of-mycobacterium-tuberculosis-h37rv-evidence-from-in-silico-elementary-mode-analysis-of-biological-network-model
#2
Saif Khan, Pallavi Somvanshi, Tulika Bhardwaj, Raju K Mandal, Sajad A Dar, Mohd Wahid, Arshad Jawed, Mohtashim Lohani, Mahvish Khan, Mohammed Y Areeshi, Shafiul Haque
The emergence of multi-drug resistant strains and co-occurrence of tuberculosis with HIV creates a major burden to the human health globally. Failure of primary antibacterial therapy necessitates the identification of new mycobacterial drugs. In this study, a comprehensive analysis involving bottom-up systems biology approach was applied wherein we have identified potential therapeutic targets of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections. Our study prioritized M. tuberculosis therapeutic targets [aspartate-β-semialdeyhde dehydrogenase (ASD), dihydrodipicolinate reductase and diaminopimelate decarboxylase] based on flux and elementary mode analysis using direct mathematical modeling of the relevant metabolic pathways...
October 25, 2017: Journal of Cellular Biochemistry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29061753/combined-antibacterial-effect-of-isoniazid-and-rifampicin-on-four-mycobacterium-tuberculosis-strains-in-vitro-experiments-and-response-surface-modeling
#3
Charlotte Genestet, Florence Ader, Catherine Pichat, Gérard Lina, Oana Dumitrescu, Sylvain Goutelle
While isoniazid and rifampicin have been the cornerstone of tuberculosis therapy caused by drug-susceptible Mycobacterium tuberculosis for more than 40 years, their combined action has never been thoroughly assessed by modern quantitative pharmacology approaches.The aims of this work were to perform in vitro experiments and mathematical modeling of the antibacterial effect of isoniazid and rifampicin alone and in combination against various strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosisAfter MIC determination of H37Rv and three strains belonging to the, Beijing, Euro-American and Indo-Oceanic lineages, the antibacterial effects of isoniazid and rifampicin alone and in combination were studied in static time-kill experiments...
October 23, 2017: Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28991169/analysis-of-transmission-and-control-of-tuberculosis-in-mainland-china-2005-2016-based-on-the-age-structure-mathematical-model
#4
Yu Zhao, Mingtao Li, Sanling Yuan
Tuberculosis (TB), an air-borne infectious disease, is a major public-health problem in China. The reported number of the active tuberculosis cases is about one million each year. The morbidity data for 2005-2012 reflect that the difference in morbidity based on age group is significant, thus the role of age-structure on the transmission of TB needs to be further developed. In this work, based on the reported data and the observed morbidity characteristics, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with age groupings, involving three categories: children, the middle-aged, and senior to investigate the role of age on the transmission of tuberculosis in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016...
October 7, 2017: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28927856/migration-flow-and-its-impact-on-tuberculosis-notification-in-portugal
#5
Ana Dias, Rita Gaio, Pedro Sousa, Marta Gomes, Olena Oliveira, Raquel Duarte
INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis notification in Portugal has decreased in the last few years. As a consequence of the economic crisis, emigration has increased and immigration has decreased. Immigrants are a risk group for tuberculosis. Most emigrants are 20-44 years old and belong to the age group most affected by tuberculosis. OBJECTIVE: To describe the decrease in tuberculosis notification in Portugal over the last years from a demographical point of view. METHODS: Mathematical analysis was performed to quantify the effect of the migration movements (separately and simultaneously) on tuberculosis notification in Portugal from 2008 to 2014...
September 16, 2017: Archivos de Bronconeumología
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28912729/multiplicity-of-mathematical-modeling-strategies-to-search-for-molecular-and-cellular-insights-into-bacteria-lung-infection
#6
REVIEW
Martina Cantone, Guido Santos, Pia Wentker, Xin Lai, Julio Vera
Even today two bacterial lung infections, namely pneumonia and tuberculosis, are among the 10 most frequent causes of death worldwide. These infections still lack effective treatments in many developing countries and in immunocompromised populations like infants, elderly people and transplanted patients. The interaction between bacteria and the host is a complex system of interlinked intercellular and the intracellular processes, enriched in regulatory structures like positive and negative feedback loops. Severe pathological condition can emerge when the immune system of the host fails to neutralize the infection...
2017: Frontiers in Physiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28826445/effectiveness-and-cost-effectiveness-of-screening-migrants-for-active-tuberculosis-and-latent-tuberculous-infection
#7
D Zenner, H Hafezi, J Potter, S Capone, A Matteelli
With the advent of the World Health Organization End TB strategy, there has been renewed interest in screening for active tuberculosis (TB), and particularly latent tuberculous infection (LTBI). In low-incidence countries, a high proportion of TB cases are notified among migrants, which often occurs due to LTBI reactivation. We aimed to review the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening migrants for active TB LTBI to inform and support the TB elimination strategy in low-incidence countries. We carried out a narrative review of English language articles published between 1 January 2000 and 31 June 2016 using the PubMed database...
September 1, 2017: International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28826444/modelling-the-social-and-structural-determinants-of-tuberculosis-opportunities-and-challenges
#8
D Pedrazzoli, D Boccia, P J Dodd, K Lönnroth, D W Dowdy, A Siroka, M E Kimerling, R G White, R M G J Houben
INTRODUCTION: Despite the close link between tuberculosis (TB) and poverty, most mathematical models of TB have not addressed underlying social and structural determinants. OBJECTIVE: To review studies employing mathematical modelling to evaluate the epidemiological impact of the structural determinants of TB. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed and personal libraries to identify eligible articles. We extracted data on the modelling techniques employed, research question, types of structural determinants modelled and setting...
September 1, 2017: International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28807188/the-global-burden-of-tuberculosis-mortality-in-children-a-mathematical-modelling-study
#9
Peter J Dodd, Courtney M Yuen, Charalambos Sismanidis, James A Seddon, Helen E Jenkins
BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis in children is increasingly recognised as an important component of the global tuberculosis burden, with an estimated 1 million cases in 2015. Although younger children are vulnerable to severe forms of tuberculosis disease, no age-disaggregated estimates of paediatric tuberculosis mortality exist, and tuberculosis has never been included in official estimates of under-5 child mortality. We aimed to produce a global mortality burden estimate in children using a complementary approach not dependent on vital registration data...
September 2017: Lancet Global Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28575450/universal-attenuators-and-their-interactions-with-feedback-loops-in-gene-regulatory-networks
#10
Dianbo Liu, Luca Albergante, Timothy J Newman
Using a combination of mathematical modelling, statistical simulation and large-scale data analysis we study the properties of linear regulatory chains (LRCs) within gene regulatory networks (GRNs). Our modelling indicates that downstream genes embedded within LRCs are highly insulated from the variation in expression of upstream genes, and thus LRCs act as attenuators. This observation implies a progressively weaker functionality of LRCs as their length increases. When analyzing the preponderance of LRCs in the GRNs of Escherichia coli K12 and several other organisms, we find that very long LRCs are essentially absent...
July 7, 2017: Nucleic Acids Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28558651/a-user-friendly-mathematical-modelling-web-interface-to-assist-local-decision-making-in-the-fight-against-drug-resistant-tuberculosis
#11
Romain Ragonnet, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Ben J Marais, Emma S McBryde
Multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) represent an important challenge for global tuberculosis (TB) control. The high rates of MDR/RR-TB observed among re-treatment cases can arise from diverse pathways: de novo amplification during initial treatment, inappropriate treatment of undiagnosed MDR/RR-TB, relapse despite appropriate treatment, or reinfection with MDR/RR-TB. Mathematical modelling allows quantification of the contribution made by these pathways in different settings...
May 30, 2017: BMC Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28499828/estimating-the-future-burden-of-multidrug-resistant-and-extensively-drug-resistant-tuberculosis-in-india-the-philippines-russia-and-south-africa-a-mathematical-modelling-study
#12
Aditya Sharma, Andrew Hill, Ekaterina Kurbatova, Martie van der Walt, Charlotte Kvasnovsky, Thelma E Tupasi, Janice C Caoili, Maria Tarcela Gler, Grigory V Volchenkov, Boris Y Kazennyy, Olga V Demikhova, Jaime Bayona, Carmen Contreras, Martin Yagui, Vaira Leimane, Sang Nae Cho, Hee Jin Kim, Kai Kliiman, Somsak Akksilp, Ruwen Jou, Julia Ershova, Tracy Dalton, Peter Cegielski
BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. METHODS: We calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa...
July 2017: Lancet Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28472445/defining-the-population-attributable-fraction-for-infectious-diseases
#13
Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Leon Danon
Background: The population attributable fraction (PAF) is used to quantify the contribution of a risk group to disease burden. For infectious diseases, high-risk individuals may increase disease risk for the wider population in addition to themselves; therefore methods are required to estimate the PAF for infectious diseases. Methods: A mathematical model of disease transmission in a population with a high-risk group was used to compare existing approaches for calculating the PAF...
June 1, 2017: International Journal of Epidemiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28284250/estimating-tuberculosis-incidence-from-primary-survey-data-a-mathematical-modeling-approach
#14
S Pandey, V K Chadha, R Laxminarayan, N Arinaminpathy
BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for improved estimations of the burden of tuberculosis (TB). OBJECTIVE: To develop a new quantitative method based on mathematical modelling, and to demonstrate its application to TB in India. DESIGN: We developed a simple model of TB transmission dynamics to estimate the annual incidence of TB disease from the annual risk of tuberculous infection and prevalence of smear-positive TB. We first compared model estimates for annual infections per smear-positive TB case using previous empirical estimates from China, Korea and the Philippines...
April 1, 2017: International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28263840/a-mathematical-model-predicting-host-mitochondrial-pyruvate-transporter-activity-to-be-a-critical-regulator-of-mycobacterium-tuberculosis-pathogenicity
#15
Parul Mehrotra, Kanury V S Rao, Samrat Chatterjee
Modulation of host metabolic machinery by Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a well established phenomenon. In our earlier study (Mehrotra et al., 2014), we observed a marked increase in acetyl-CoA levels in cells bearing virulent M. tuberculosis infections compared to host cells harbouring avirulent infections. The difference was observed inspite of similar levels of total host cellular pyruvate in both infection types. The present study aimed in capturing the cause for such a phenomenon that defines the pathogenicity of M...
May 2017: Bio Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28253922/counting-the-lives-saved-by-dots-in-india-a-model-based-approach
#16
Sandip Mandal, Vineet K Chadha, Ramanan Laxminarayan, Nimalan Arinaminpathy
BACKGROUND: Against the backdrop of renewed efforts to control tuberculosis (TB) worldwide, there is a need for improved methods to estimate the public health impact of TB programmes. Such methods should not only address the improved outcomes amongst those receiving care but should also account for the impact of TB services on reducing transmission. METHODS: Vital registration data in India are not sufficiently reliable for estimates of TB mortality. As an alternative approach, we developed a mathematical model of TB transmission dynamics and mortality, capturing the scale-up of DOTS in India, through the rollout of the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP)...
March 3, 2017: BMC Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28163165/the-risk-of-global-epidemic-replacement-with-drug-resistant-mycobacterium-tuberculosis-strains
#17
REVIEW
Emma S McBryde, Michael T Meehan, Tan N Doan, Romain Ragonnet, Ben J Marais, Vanina Guernier, James M Trauer
OBJECTIVES: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a threat to tuberculosis (TB) control. To guide TB control, it is essential to understand the extent to which and the circumstances in which MDR-TB will replace drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB) as the dominant phenotype. The issue was examined by assessing evidence from genomics, pharmacokinetics, and epidemiology studies. This evidence was then synthesized into a mathematical model. METHODS: This model considers two TB strains, one with and one without an MDR phenotype...
March 2017: International Journal of Infectious Diseases: IJID
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28152056/transmission-dynamics-and-elimination-potential-of-zoonotic-tuberculosis-in-morocco
#18
Mahamat Fayiz Abakar, Hind Yahyaoui Azami, Philipp Justus Bless, Lisa Crump, Petra Lohmann, Mirjam Laager, Nakul Chitnis, Jakob Zinsstag
Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an endemic zoonosis in Morocco caused by Mycobacterium bovis, which infects many domestic animals and is transmitted to humans through consumption of raw milk or from contact with infected animals. The prevalence of BTB in Moroccan cattle is estimated at 18%, and 33% at the individual and the herd level respectively, but the human M. bovis burden needs further clarification. The current control strategy based on test and slaughter should be improved through local context adaptation taking into account a suitable compensation in order to reduce BTB prevalence in Morocco and decrease the disease burden in humans and animals...
February 2017: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28129769/the-role-of-mobility-and-health-disparities-on-the-transmission-dynamics-of-tuberculosis
#19
Victor Moreno, Baltazar Espinoza, Kamal Barley, Marlio Paredes, Derdei Bichara, Anuj Mubayi, Carlos Castillo-Chavez
BACKGROUND: The transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) involve complex epidemiological and socio-economical interactions between individuals living in highly distinct regional conditions. The level of exogenous reinfection and first time infection rates within high-incidence settings may influence the impact of control programs on TB prevalence. The impact that effective population size and the distribution of individuals' residence times in different patches have on TB transmission and control are studied using selected scenarios where risk is defined by the estimated or perceive first time infection and/or exogenous re-infection rates...
January 28, 2017: Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092959/mixed-vaccination-strategy-for-the-control-of-tuberculosis-a-case-study-in-china
#20
Siyu Liu, Yong Li, Yingjie Bi, Qingdao Huang
This study first presents a mathematical model of TB transmission considering BCG vaccination compartment to investigate the transmission dynamics nowadays. Based on data reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the basic reproduction number is estimated approximately as R0=1.1892. To reach the new End TB goal raised by WHO in 2015, considering the health system in China, we design a mixed vaccination strategy. Theoretical analysis indicates that the infectious population asymptotically tends to zero with the new vaccination strategy which is the combination of constant vaccination and pulse vaccination...
June 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
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