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Mathematical model tuberculosis

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28092959/mixed-vaccination-strategy-for-the-control-of-tuberculosis-a-case-study-in-china
#1
Siyu Liu, Yong Li, Yingjie Bi, Qingdao Huang
This study first presents a mathematical model of TB transmission considering BCG vaccination compartment to investigate the transmission dynamics nowadays. Based on data reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the basic reproduction number is estimated approximately as R0=1.1892. To reach the new End TB goal raised by WHO in 2015, considering the health system in China, we design a mixed vaccination strategy. Theoretical analysis indicates that the infectious population asymptotically tends to zero with the new vaccination strategy which is the combination of constant vaccination and pulse vaccination...
June 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28086846/stochastic-agent-based-modeling-of-tuberculosis-in-canadian-indigenous-communities
#2
Ashleigh R Tuite, Victor Gallant, Elaine Randell, Annie-Claude Bourgeois, Amy L Greer
BACKGROUND: In Canada, active tuberculosis (TB) disease rates remain disproportionately higher among the Indigenous population, especially among the Inuit in the north. We used mathematical modeling to evaluate how interventions might enhance existing TB control efforts in a region of Nunavut. METHODS: We developed a stochastic, agent-based model of TB transmission that captured the unique household and community structure. Evaluated interventions included: (i) rapid treatment of active cases; (ii) rapid contact tracing; (iii) expanded screening programs for latent TB infection (LTBI); and (iv) reduced household density...
January 13, 2017: BMC Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28077441/predicting-ifn-%C3%AE-responses-after-bcg-vaccination-in-humans-from-macaques-a-proof-of-concept-study-of-immunostimulation-immunodynamic-modelling-methods
#3
Sophie J Rhodes, Charlotte Sarfas, Gwenan M Knight, Andrew White, Ansar A Pathan, Helen McShane, Thomas G Evans, Helen Fletcher, Sally Sharpe, Richard G White
INTRODUCTION: Macaques play a central role in human tuberculosis(TB) vaccine development. Immune and challenge responses differ across macaque and human subpopulations. We determined which macaque subpopulations best predicted immune responses in different human subpopulations, using novel immunostimulation/immunodynamic modelling methods in a proof of concept study. METHODS: Data on IFN-γ secreting CD4+ T cells over time after recent BCG vaccination were available for 55 humans and 81 macaques...
January 11, 2017: Clinical and Vaccine Immunology: CVI
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28061832/high-rates-of-multidrug-resistant-and-rifampicin-resistant-tuberculosis-among-re-treatment-cases-where-do-they-come-from
#4
Romain Ragonnet, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Ben J Marais, Emma S McBryde
BACKGROUND: Globally 3.9% of new and 21% of re-treatment tuberculosis (TB) cases are multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR), which is often interpreted as evidence that drug resistance results mainly from poor treatment adherence. This study aims to assess the respective contributions of the different causal pathways leading to MDR/RR-TB at re-treatment. METHODS: We use a simple mathematical model to simulate progression between the different stages of disease and treatment for patients diagnosed with TB...
January 6, 2017: BMC Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28043620/implementation-of-new-tools-for-multidrug-resistant-tuberculosis-detection-and-control
#5
Robin M Warren
Contrary to classical dogma, molecular epidemiological studies and mathematical modeling clearly show that the global drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) epidemic is driven by transmission. Furthermore, there is mounting evidence demonstrating that amplification of resistance occurs during treatment, possibly as a result of insufficient active drugs being administered. To control the drug-resistant TB epidemic, it will be essential to implement new, rapid, and highly sensitive and specific diagnostic methods to decrease the diagnostic delay associated with culture-based testing...
December 2016: International Journal of Mycobacteriology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27956422/role-of-pyrazinamide-in-the-emergence-of-extensively-drug-resistant-tuberculosis-a-multi-strain-mathematical-model
#6
Mariam O Fofana, Sourya Shrestha, Gwenan M Knight, Ted Cohen, Richard G White, Frank Cobelens, David W Dowdy
Several infectious diseases of global importance - e.g. HIV, tuberculosis (TB) - require prolonged treatment with combination antimicrobial regimens, typically involving high-potency "core" agents coupled with additional "companion" drugs that protect against de novo emergence of mutations conferring resistance to the core agents. Often, the most effective (or least toxic) companion agents are re-used in sequential (first-line, second-line, etc…) regimens. We used a multi-strain model of M. tuberculosis transmission in Southeast Asia to investigate how this practice might facilitate the emergence of extensive drug resistance, i...
December 12, 2016: Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27931676/passive-case-finding-for-tuberculosis-is-not-enough
#7
REVIEW
Jennifer Ho, Greg J Fox, Ben J Marais
Current World Health Organisation targets calling for an end to the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2035 require a dramatic improvement in current case-detection strategies. A reliance on passive case finding (PCF) has resulted consistently, in over three million infectious TB cases per year, being missed by the health system, leading to ongoing transmission of infection within families and communities. Active case finding (ACF) for TB has been recognized as an important complementary strategy to PCF, in order to diagnose and treat patients earlier, reducing the period of infectiousness and therefore transmission...
December 2016: International Journal of Mycobacteriology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27879115/preface
#8
Avner Friedman, Mirosław Lachowicz, Urszula Ledzewicz, Monika Joanna Piotrowska, Zuzanna Szymanska
This volume was inspired by the topics presented at the international conference "Micro and Macro Systems in Life Sciences" which was held on Jun 8-12, 2015 in Będlewo, Poland. System biology is an approach which tries to understand how micro systems, at the molecular and cellular levels, affect macro systems such as organs, tissue and populations. Thus it is not surprising that a major theme of this volume evolves around cancer and its treatment. Articles on this topic include models for tumor induced angiogenesis, without and with delays, metastatic niche of the bone marrow, drug resistance and metronomic chemotherapy, and virotherapy of glioma...
February 1, 2017: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27816373/the-tb-vaccine-h56-ic31-dose-response-curve-is-peaked-not-saturating-data-generation-for-new-mathematical-modelling-methods-to-inform-vaccine-dose-decisions
#9
Sophie J Rhodes, Andrea Zelmer, Gwenan M Knight, Satria Arief Prabowo, Lisa Stockdale, Thomas G Evans, Thomas Lindenstrøm, Richard G White, Helen Fletcher
INTRODUCTION: In vaccine development, dose-response curves are commonly assumed to be saturating. Evidence from tuberculosis (TB) vaccine, H56+IC31 shows this may be incorrect. Mathematical modelling techniques may be useful in efficiently identifying the most immunogenic dose, but model calibration requires longitudinal data across multiple doses and time points. AIMS: We aimed to (i) generate longitudinal response data in mice for a wide range of H56+IC31 doses for use in future mathematical modelling and (ii) test whether a 'saturating' or 'peaked' dose-response curve, better fit the empirical data...
December 7, 2016: Vaccine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27810870/implementation-of-a-collaborative-series-of-classroom-based-undergraduate-research-experiences-spanning-chemical-biology-biochemistry-and-neurobiology
#10
Jennifer R Kowalski, Geoffrey C Hoops, R Jeremy Johnson
Classroom undergraduate research experiences (CUREs) provide students access to the measurable benefits of undergraduate research experiences (UREs). Herein, we describe the implementation and assessment of a novel model for cohesive CUREs focused on central research themes involving faculty research collaboration across departments. Specifically, we implemented three collaborative CUREs spanning chemical biology, biochemistry, and neurobiology that incorporated faculty members' research interests and revolved around the central theme of visualizing biological processes like Mycobacterium tuberculosis enzyme activity and neural signaling using fluorescent molecules...
2016: CBE Life Sciences Education
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27807274/diverse-drug-resistant-subpopulations-of-mycobacterium-tuberculosis-are-sustained-in-continuous-culture
#11
Diepreye Ayabina, Charlotte Hendon-Dunn, Joanna Bacon, Caroline Colijn
Drug resistance to tuberculosis (TB) has become more widespread over the past decade. As such, understanding the emergence and fitness of antibiotic-resistant subpopulations is crucial for the development of new interventions. Here we use a simple mathematical model to explain the differences in the response to isoniazid (INH) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis cells cultured under two growth rates in a chemostat. We obtain posterior distributions of model parameters consistent with data using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method...
November 2016: Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27782966/benefits-of-continuous-isoniazid-preventive-therapy-may-outweigh-resistance-risks-in-a-declining-tuberculosis-hiv-coepidemic
#12
Amber Kunkel, Forrest W Crawford, James Shepherd, Ted Cohen
OBJECTIVE: Extending the duration of isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) may improve its effectiveness at both individual and population levels, but could also increase selective pressure in favor of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis (TB) strains. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of these two effects. METHODS: Transmission dynamic model. DESIGN: We created a mathematical model of TB transmission incorporating HIV incidence and treatment, mixed strain latent TB infections, and four different phenotypes of TB drug resistance (pan-susceptible, isoniazid monoresistant, rifampicin monoresistant, and multidrug resistant)...
November 13, 2016: AIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27780211/the-global-burden-of-latent-tuberculosis-infection-a-re-estimation-using-mathematical-modelling
#13
Rein M G J Houben, Peter J Dodd
BACKGROUND: The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI) as "one-third" of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI) for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011) and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014...
October 2016: PLoS Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27775384/a-two-strain-tb-model-with-multiple-latent-stages
#14
Azizeh Jabbari, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Fereshteh Nazari, Baojun Song, Hossein Kheiri
A two-strain tuberculosis (TB) transmission model incorporating antibiotic-generated TB resistant strains and long and variable waiting periods within the latently infected class is introduced. The mathematical analysis is carried out when the waiting periods are modeled via parametrically friendly gamma distributions, a reasonable alternative to the use of exponential distributed waiting periods or to integral equations involving ``arbitrary'' distributions. The model supports a globally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium when the reproduction number is less than one and an endemic equilibriums, shown to be locally asymptotically stable, or l...
August 1, 2016: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27742639/concentration-dependent-synergy-and-antagonism-of-linezolid-and-moxifloxacin-in-the-treatment-of-childhood-tuberculosis-the-dynamic-duo
#15
Devyani Deshpande, Shashikant Srivastava, Eric Nuermberger, Jotam G Pasipanodya, Soumya Swaminathan, Tawanda Gumbo
BACKGROUND:  No treatment regimens have been specifically designed for children, in whom tuberculosis is predominantly intracellular. Given their activity as monotherapy and their ability to penetrate many diseased anatomic sites that characterize disseminated tuberculosis, linezolid and moxifloxacin could be combined to form a regimen for this need. METHODS:  We examined microbial kill of intracellular Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) by the combination of linezolid and moxifloxacin multiple exposures in a 7-by-7 mathematical matrix...
November 1, 2016: Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27720688/feasibility-of-achieving-the-2025-who-global-tuberculosis-targets-in-south-africa-china-and-india-a-combined-analysis-of-11-mathematical-models
#16
Rein M G J Houben, Nicolas A Menzies, Tom Sumner, Grace H Huynh, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, Hsien-Ho Lin, Chieh-Yin Wu, Sandip Mandal, Surabhi Pandey, Sze-Chuan Suen, Eran Bendavid, Andrew S Azman, David W Dowdy, Nicolas Bacaër, Allison S Rhines, Marcus W Feldman, Andreas Handel, Christopher C Whalen, Stewart T Chang, Bradley G Wagner, Philip A Eckhoff, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Emma S McBryde, Ted Cohen, Joshua A Salomon, Carel Pretorius, Marek Lalli, Jeffrey W Eaton, Delia Boccia, Mehran Hosseini, Gabriela B Gomez, Suvanand Sahu, Colleen Daniels, Lucica Ditiu, Daniel P Chin, Lixia Wang, Vineet K Chadha, Kiran Rade, Puneet Dewan, Piotr Hippner, Salome Charalambous, Alison D Grant, Gavin Churchyard, Yogan Pillay, L David Mametja, Michael E Kimerling, Anna Vassall, Richard G White
BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. METHODS: 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa...
November 2016: Lancet Global Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27633883/the-potential-impact-of-bcg-vaccine-supply-shortages-on-global-paediatric-tuberculosis-mortality
#17
Rebecca C Harris, Peter J Dodd, Richard G White
BACKGROUND: The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is provided to over 100 million neonates annually to protect against childhood tuberculosis (TB). Recent BCG manufacturing interruptions highlight global supply risks. We estimated the potential impact of BCG shortfalls on global paediatric (<15 years) TB mortality. METHODS: A static mathematical model was employed to estimate the number of paediatric TB deaths avoided by usual levels of BCG coverage, and potential additional TB deaths in the first 15 years of life due to 1-year BCG supply shortfalls of 6...
September 15, 2016: BMC Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27589214/identifying-components-for-programmatic-latent-tuberculosis-infection-control-in-the-european-union
#18
Andreas Sandgren, Jannigje M Vonk Noordegraaf-Schouten, Anouk M Oordt-Speets, Gerarda B van Kessel, Sake J de Vlas, Marieke J van der Werf
Individuals with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are the reservoir of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a population and as long as this reservoir exists, elimination of tuberculosis (TB) will not be feasible. In 2013, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) started an assessment of benefits and risks of introducing programmatic LTBI control, with the aim of providing guidance on how to incorporate LTBI control into national TB strategies in European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) Member States and candidate countries...
August 25, 2016: Euro Surveillance: Bulletin Européen sur les Maladies Transmissibles, European Communicable Disease Bulletin
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27536981/benefits-of-continuous-isoniazid-preventive-therapy-may-outweigh-resistance-risks-in-a-declining-tb-hiv-co-epidemic
#19
Amber Kunkel, Forrest W Crawford, James Shepherd, Ted Cohen
OBJECTIVE: Extending the duration of isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) may improve its effectiveness at both the individual and population level, but could also increase selective pressure in favor of isoniazid resistant tuberculosis (TB) strains. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of these two effects. METHODS: Transmission dynamic model DESIGN:: We created a mathematical model of TB transmission incorporating HIV incidence and treatment, mixed strain latent TB infections, and four different phenotypes of TB drug resistance (pan-susceptible, isoniazid mono-resistant, rifampicin mono-resistant, and multi-drug resistant)...
August 17, 2016: AIDS
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27457933/controlled-fire-use-in-early-humans-might-have-triggered-the-evolutionary-emergence-of-tuberculosis
#20
Rebecca H Chisholm, James M Trauer, Darren Curnoe, Mark M Tanaka
Tuberculosis (TB) is caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC), a wildly successful group of organisms and the leading cause of death resulting from a single bacterial pathogen worldwide. It is generally accepted that MTBC established itself in human populations in Africa and that animal-infecting strains diverged from human strains. However, the precise causal factors of TB emergence remain unknown. Here, we propose that the advent of controlled fire use in early humans created the ideal conditions for the emergence of TB as a transmissible disease...
August 9, 2016: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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