Outbreak prediction

INTRODUCTION: Ramularia leaf spot (RLS) disease is a growing threat to barley cultivation, but with no substantial resistance identified to date. Similarly, the understanding of the lifestyle of Ramularia collo-cygni ( Rcc ) and the prediction of RLS outbreak severity remain challenging, with Rcc displaying a rather untypical long endophytic phase and a sudden change to a necrotrophic lifestyle. The aim of this study was to provide further insights into the defense dynamics during the different stages of colonization and infection in barley in order to identify potential targets for resistance breeding...

Syndromic surveillance is an effective tool for enabling the timely detection of infectious disease outbreaks and facilitating the implementation of effective mitigation strategies by public health authorities. While various information sources are currently utilized to collect syndromic signal data for analysis, the aggregated measurement of cough, an important symptom for many illnesses, is not widely employed as a syndromic signal. With recent advancements in ubiquitous sensing technologies, it becomes feasible to continuously measure population-level cough incidence in a contactless, unobtrusive, and automated manner...

INTRODUCTION: An unprecedented surge of Omicron infections appeared nationwide in China in December 2022 after the adjustment of the COVID-19 response policy. Here, we report the clinical and genomic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infections among children in Shanghai during this outbreak. METHODS: A total of 64 children with symptomatic COVID-19 were enrolled. SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences were obtained using next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology. Patient demographics and clinical characteristics were compared between variants...

There is evidence showing that the triarchic model of grit and its dimensions (i.e., perseverance of effort, consistency of interests, and adaptability to situations ) predict engagement and well-being outcomes in high school and undergraduate students during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. However, there has been limited research on how this model of grit relates to engagement and optimal psychological outcomes in primary school students. This research investigates the association of grit's dimensions with academic engagement in math and science as well as well-being outcomes (i...

BACKGROUND: While literature is abundant on the negative mental health impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, few studies focus on the Central and Eastern European region. OBJECTIVES: We examined stress, burnout, and sleeping troubles among mental health professionals in the context of psychosocial risk factors related to participation in COVID care during the fourth and fifth waves. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Mental health professionals (N=268) completed an online cross-sectional survey in Hungary, between November 2021 and April 2022...

In the midst of an outbreak or sustained epidemic, reliable prediction of transmission risks and patterns of spread is critical to inform public health programs. Projections of transmission growth or decline among specific risk groups can aid in optimizing interventions, particularly when resources are limited. Phylogenetic trees have been widely used in the detection of transmission chains and high-risk populations. Moreover, tree topology and the incorporation of population parameters (phylodynamics) can be useful in reconstructing the evolutionary dynamics of an epidemic across space and time among individuals...

BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the world, and studies have shown that measures to prevent COVID-19 can largely reduce the spread of other infectious diseases. This study explored the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and interventions on the incidence of HFMD. METHODS: We gathered data on the prevalence of HFMD from the Children's Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was constructed using HFMD incidence data from 2014 to 2019, the number of cases predicted from 2020 to 2022 was predicted, and the predicted values were compared with the actual measurements...

The first-ever recent Marburg virus (MARV) outbreak in Ghana, West Africa and Equatorial Guinea has refocused efforts towards the development of therapeutics since no vaccine or treatment has been approved. mRNA vaccines were proven successful in a pandemic-response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, making it an appealing vaccine platform to target highly pathogenic emerging viruses. Here, 1-methyl-pseudouridine-modified mRNA vaccines formulated in lipid nanoparticles (LNP) were developed against MARV and the closely-related Ravn virus (RAVV), which were based on sequences of the glycoproteins (GP) of the two viruses...

The outbreak of mass mortality occurred in Tachysurus fulvidraco farm in Hubei province of China. The pathogenic strain of Streptococcus iniae (termed 2022SI08) was isolated and identified from diseased T. fulvidraco , based on morphological, physiological, and biochemical characteristics, as well as 16S rRNA gene sequence and phylogenetic analysis. Further, the whole genome of isolate S. iniae was sequenced and predicted to contain one single circular chromosome of 1,776,777 bp with a GC content of 37...

Population outbreaks of the crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) seriously threaten the sustainability of coral reef ecosystems. However, traditional ecological monitoring techniques cannot provide early warning before the outbreaks, thus preventing timely intervention. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a more accurate and faster technology to predict the outbreaks of COTS. In this work, we developed an electrochemical biosensor based on a programmed catalytic hairpin assembly (CHA) and hybridization chain reaction (HCR) cyclic amplification strategy for sensitive and selective detection of COTS environmental DNA (eDNA) in water bodies...

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has merged as a global health threat since its outbreak in December 2019. Despite widespread recognition, there has been a paucity of studies focusing on the T cell receptor (TCR) bias in adaptive immunity induced by SARS-CoV-2. This research conducted a comparative analysis of the TCR immune repertoire to identify notable αβ TCR bias sequences associated with the SARS-CoV-2 virus antigen. The present study encompassed 73 symptomatic COVID-19 patients, categorized as moderate/mild or severe/critical, along with 9 healthy controls...

Senecavirus A (SVA) causes outbreaks of vesicular disease in pigs, which imposes a considerable economic burden on the pork industry. As current SVA prevention measures are ineffective, new strategies for controlling SVA are urgently needed. Circular (circ)RNA is a newly characterized class of widely expressed, endogenous regulatory RNAs, which have been implicated in viral infection; however, whether circRNAs regulate SVA infection remains unknown. To investigate the influence of circRNAs on SVA infection in porcine kidney 15 (PK-15) cells, RNA sequencing technology was used to analyze the circRNA expression profiles of SVA-infected and uninfected PK-15 cells, the interactions between circRNAs, miRNAs, and mRNAs potentially implicated in SVA infection were predicted using bioinformatics tools...

STUDY AIMS: Although non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae lack the ctxAB genes encoding cholera toxin, they can cause diarrhoeal disease and outbreaks in humans. In Switzerland, V. cholerae is a notifiable pathogen and all clinical isolates are analysed at the National Reference Laboratory for Enteropathogenic Bacteria and Listeria. Up to 20 infections are reported annually. In this study, we investigated the population structure and genetic characteristics of non-toxigenic V...

Coral reef ecosystems are now commonly affected by major climate and disease disturbances. Disturbance impacts are typically recorded using reef benthic cover, but this may be less reflective of other ecosystem processes. To explore the potential for reef water-based disturbance indicators, we conducted a 7-year time series on US Virgin Island reefs where we examined benthic cover and reef water nutrients and microorganisms from 2016 to 2022, which included two major disturbances: hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 and the stony coral tissue loss disease outbreak starting in 2020...

Forests are facing unprecedented levels of stress from pest and disease outbreaks, disturbance, fragmentation, development, and a changing climate. These selective agents act to alter forest composition from regional to cellular levels. Thus, a central challenge for understanding how forests will be impacted by future change is how to integrate across scales of biology. Phenotype, or an observable trait, is the product of an individual's genes (G) and the environment in which an organism lives (E). To date, researchers have detailed how environment drives variation in tree phenotypes over long time periods (e...

BACKGROUND: Real-time surveillance of emerging infectious diseases necessitates a dynamically evolving, computable case definition, which frequently incorporates symptom-related criteria. For symptom detection, both population health monitoring platforms and research initiatives primarily depend on structured data extracted from electronic health records. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to validate and test an artificial intelligence (AI)-based natural language processing (NLP) pipeline for detecting COVID-19 symptoms from physician notes in pediatric patients...

BACKGROUND: It is recognized that patients' blood glucose fluctuates over time during acute disease episodes, especially during the outbreak of cardiovascular events, regardless of the presence of an abnormal blood glucose profile prior to admission to the hospital. Glucose fluctuations in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the intensive care unit (ICU) are currently not adequately monitored and studied. We focused on blood glucose fluctuation values within 24 h of admission to assess their association with 30-day and 1-year mortality...

Infectious disease outbreaks are expected to predict support for conservative policies. However, earlier studies (January-June, 2020) reached conflicting findings regarding the association between COVID-19 threat and policy preferences in the United States. We revisit this issue by analyzing five nationally representative surveys conducted during the relatively severe periods of the pandemic (August 2020-December, 2020; total N = 82,753). Using Bayesian inference, we find strong evidence that subjective (e...

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to present a temporal and spatial analysis of the 2018 measles outbreak in Brazil, particularly in the metropolitan city of Manaus in the Amazon region, and further introduce a new tool for spatial analysis. METHODS: We analyzed the geographical data of the residences of over 7,000 individuals with measles in Manaus during 2018 and 2019. Spatial and temporal analyses were conducted to characterize various aspects of the outbreak, including the onset and prevalence of symptoms, demographics, and vaccination status...

BACKGROUND: Parental vaccine hesitancy could lead to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. Although parental vaccine hesitancy exists in the Vietnamese community, no research has directly investigated this social phenomenon in Vietnam. Among the validated measures, the 15-item Parent Attitudes About Childhood Vaccines survey tool (PACV) was reliable for predicting vaccine-hesitant parents. However, the PACV was not available in Vietnamese. This study aimed to develop a Vietnamese version of the PACV and examine factors associated with parental vaccine hesitancy in Hue city, Vietnam...