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Outbreak prediction

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27932782/cdc-grand-rounds-modeling-and-public-health-decision-making
#1
Leah S Fischer, Scott Santibanez, Richard J Hatchett, Daniel B Jernigan, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Phoebe G Thorpe, Martin I Meltzer
Mathematical models incorporate various data sources and advanced computational techniques to portray real-world disease transmission and translate the basic science of infectious diseases into decision-support tools for public health. Unlike standard epidemiologic methods that rely on complete data, modeling is needed when there are gaps in data. By combining diverse data sources, models can fill gaps when critical decisions must be made using incomplete or limited information. They can be used to assess the effect and feasibility of different scenarios and provide insight into the emergence, spread, and control of disease...
December 9, 2016: MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27929451/the-self-regulation-model-of-illness-comparison-between-zika-and-dengue-and-its-application-to-predict-mosquito-prevention-behaviours-in-malaysia-a-dengue-endemic-country
#2
Li Ping Wong, Haridah Alias, Nasrin Aghamohammadi, I-Ching Sam, Sazaly AbuBakar
Perceptions about illnesses may influence self-care and preventive health behaviours. Illness perceptions of the Zika virus (ZIKV) infection were investigated under the framework of the Self-Regulation Model of Illness. Illness perception differences between ZIKV and dengue fever were also examined. Lastly, associations between illness perceptions of ZIKV with mosquito prevention practices were studied. Samples were drawn from landline telephone numbers using computer-assisted telephone interviewing in Malaysia...
December 6, 2016: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27926933/comparative-analysis-of-dengue-and-zika-outbreaks-reveals-differences-by-setting-and-virus
#3
Sebastian Funk, Adam J Kucharski, Anton Camacho, Rosalind M Eggo, Laith Yakob, Lawrence M Murray, W John Edmunds
The pacific islands of Micronesia have experienced several outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases over the past decade. In outbreaks on small islands, the susceptible population is usually well defined, and there is no co-circulation of pathogens. Because of this, analysing such outbreaks can be useful for understanding the transmission dynamics of the pathogens involved, and particularly so for yet understudied pathogens such as Zika virus. Here, we compared three outbreaks of dengue and Zika virus in two different island settings in Micronesia, the Yap Main Islands and Fais, using a mathematical model of transmission dynamics and making full use of commonalities in disease and setting between the outbreaks...
December 2016: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27919313/population-dynamics-of-rice-planthoppers-nilaparvata-lugens-and-sogatella-furcifera-hemiptera-delphacidae-in-central-vietnam-and-its-effects-on-their-spring-migration-to-china
#4
G Hu, M-H Lu, H A Tuan, W-C Liu, M-C Xie, C E McInerney, B-P Zhai
Rice planthopper (RPH) populations of Nilaparvata lugens and Sogatella furcifera periodically have erupted across Asia. Predicting RPH population dynamics and identifying their source areas are crucial for the management of these migratory pests in China, but the origins of the migrants to temperate and subtropical regions in China remains unclear. In particular, their early migration to China in March and April have not yet been explored due to a lack of research data available from potential source areas, Central Vietnam and Laos...
December 6, 2016: Bulletin of Entomological Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27917386/transmission-of-foot-and-mouth-disease-virus-during-the-incubation-period-in-pigs
#5
Carolina Stenfeldt, Juan M Pacheco, Barbara P Brito, Karla I Moreno-Torres, Matt A Branan, Amy H Delgado, Luis L Rodriguez, Jonathan Arzt
Understanding the quantitative characteristics of a pathogen's capability to transmit during distinct phases of infection is important to enable accurate predictions of the spread and impact of a disease outbreak. In the current investigation, the potential for transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) during the incubation (preclinical) period of infection was investigated in seven groups of pigs that were sequentially exposed to a group of donor pigs that were infected by simulated-natural inoculation...
2016: Frontiers in Veterinary Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27914145/differential-cell-count-and-crp-level-in-blood-as-predictors-for-middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-infection-in-acute-febrile-patients-during-nosocomial-outbreak
#6
Ga Eun Park, Cheol In Kang, Jae Hoon Ko, Sun Young Cho, Young Eun Ha, Yae Jean Kim, Kyong Ran Peck, Jae Hoon Song, Doo Ryeon Chung
A case-control study was performed to identify clinical predictors for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection among patients with acute febrile illness during the nosocomial outbreak. Patients with MERS-CoV were more likely to have monocytosis with normal white blood cell (WBC) count and lower C-reactive protein (CRP) level. Simple laboratory data such as complete blood counts (CBC) with differential count could be a useful marker for the prediction of MERS and triage at the initial presentation of acute febrile patients in outbreak setting...
January 2017: Journal of Korean Medical Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27913131/using-phenomenological-models-for-forecasting-the-2015-ebola-challenge
#7
Bruce Pell, Yang Kuang, Cecile Viboud, Gerardo Chowell
BACKGROUND: The rising number of novel pathogens threatening the human population has motivated the application of mathematical modeling for forecasting the trajectory and size of epidemics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We summarize the real-time forecasting results of the logistic equation during the 2015 Ebola challenge focused on predicting synthetic data derived from a detailed individual-based model of Ebola transmission dynamics and control. We also carry out a post-challenge comparison of two simple phenomenological models...
November 19, 2016: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27912127/hyperferritinemia-is-a-potential-marker-of-chronic-chikungunya-a-retrospective-study-on-the-island-of-cura%C3%A3-ao-during-the-2014-2015-outbreak
#8
Fatih Anfasa, Lisette Provacia, Corine GeurtsvanKessel, Robert Wever, Izzy Gerstenbluth, Albert D M E Osterhaus, Byron E E Martina
BACKGROUND: Recently Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks have been reported in the Carribean. There is no data regarding the outbreak in Curaçao. In addition, to date there is no biomarker that could be used to predict chronic infection. OBJECTIVES: To characterize the first CHIKV outbreak in Curaçao and to identify potential biomarkers for chronic infection. STUDY DESIGN: A serological test and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) were used on samples collected in Curaçao to confirm infection...
November 18, 2016: Journal of Clinical Virology: the Official Publication of the Pan American Society for Clinical Virology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27905501/using-baidu-search-index-to-predict-dengue-outbreak-in-china
#9
Kangkang Liu, Tao Wang, Zhicong Yang, Xiaodong Huang, Gabriel J Milinovich, Yi Lu, Qinlong Jing, Yao Xia, Zhengyang Zhao, Yang Yang, Shilu Tong, Wenbiao Hu, Jiahai Lu
This study identified the possible threshold to predict dengue fever (DF) outbreaks using Baidu Search Index (BSI). Time-series classification and regression tree models based on BSI were used to develop a predictive model for DF outbreak in Guangzhou and Zhongshan, China. In the regression tree models, the mean autochthonous DF incidence rate increased approximately 30-fold in Guangzhou when the weekly BSI for DF at the lagged moving average of 1-3 weeks was more than 382. When the weekly BSI for DF at the lagged moving average of 1-5 weeks was more than 91...
December 1, 2016: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27902321/the-serology-of-ebolavirus-a-wider-geographical-range-a-wider-genus-of-viruses-or-a-wider-range-of-virulence
#10
Magdalena Formella, Derek Gatherer
Viruses of the genus Ebolavirus are the causative agents of Ebola virus disease (EVD), of which there have been only 25 recorded outbreaks since the discovery of Zaire and Sudan ebolaviruses in the late 1970s. Until the west African outbreak commencing in late 2013, EVD was confined to an area of central Africa stretching from the coast of Gabon through the Congo river basin and eastward to the Great Lakes. Nevertheless, population serological studies since 1976, most of which were carried out in the first two decades after that date, have suggested a wider distribution and more frequent occurrence across tropical Africa...
October 21, 2016: Journal of General Virology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27899155/comparative-sequence-analysis-of-cyclospora-cayetanensis-apicoplast-genomes-originating-from-diverse-geographical-regions
#11
Hediye Nese Cinar, Yvonne Qvarnstrom, Yuping Wei-Pridgeon, Wen Li, Fernanda S Nascimento, Michael J Arrowood, Helen R Murphy, AhYoung Jang, Eunje Kim, RaeYoung Kim, Alexandre da Silva, Gopal R Gopinath
BACKGROUND: Cyclospora cayetanensis is an emerging coccidian parasite that causes endemic and epidemic diarrheal disease called cyclosporiasis, and this infection is associated with consumption of contaminated produce or water in developed and developing regions. Food-borne outbreaks of cyclosporiasis have occurred almost every year in the USA since the 1990s. Investigations of these outbreaks are currently hampered due to lack of molecular epidemiological tools for trace back analysis...
November 29, 2016: Parasites & Vectors
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27899025/empirical-model-for-calculating-dengue-incidence-using-temperature-rainfall-and-relative-humidity-a-19-year-retrospective-analysis-in-east-delhi-india
#12
V G Ramachandran, Priyamvada Roy, Shukla Das, Narendra Singh Mogha, Ajay Kumar Bansal
Purpose: Aedes mosquito is responsible for transmitting dengue virus. Mosquito lifecycle is known to be influenced by temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. This retrospective study was planned to investigate if climatic factors can be used to predict occurrence of dengue cases in our area. Methods: Number of monthly dengue cases reported for a period of 19 years was obtained. Monthly data of rainfall, temperature and humidity collected from local Weather Station was correlated with number of monthly reported dengue cases...
November 27, 2016: Epidemiology and Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27898018/combating-ebola-with-repurposed-therapeutics-using-the-cando-platform
#13
Gaurav Chopra, Sashank Kaushik, Peter L Elkin, Ram Samudrala
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is extremely virulent with an estimated mortality rate of up to 90%. However, the state-of-the-art treatment for EVD is limited to quarantine and supportive care. The 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, the largest in history, is believed to have caused more than 11,000 fatalities. The countries worst affected are also among the poorest in the world. Given the complexities, time, and resources required for a novel drug development, finding efficient drug discovery pathways is going to be crucial in the fight against future outbreaks...
November 25, 2016: Molecules: a Journal of Synthetic Chemistry and Natural Product Chemistry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27896036/detecting-sedimentation-impacts-to-coral-reefs-resulting-from-dredging-the-port-of-miami-florida-usa
#14
Margaret W Miller, Jocelyn Karazsia, Carolyn E Groves, Sean Griffin, Tom Moore, Pace Wilber, Kurtis Gregg
The federal channel at Port of Miami, Florida, USA, was dredged between late 2013 and early 2015 to widen and deepen the channel. Due to the limited spatial extent of impact-assessment monitoring associated with the project, the extent of the dredging impacts on surrounding coral reefs has not been well quantified. Previously published remote sensing analyses, as well as agency and anecdotal reports suggest the most severe and largest area of sedimentation occurred on a coral reef feature referred to as the Inner Reef, particularly in the sector north of the channel...
2016: PeerJ
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27890080/antibodies-against-dictyocaulus-viviparus-major-sperm-protein-in-bulk-tank-milk-association-with-clinical-appearance-herd-management-and-milk-production
#15
Johannes Charlier, Aklilu Ghebretinsae, Tom Meyns, Guy Czaplicki, Jozef Vercruysse, Edwin Claerebout
The objective of this study was to conduct a comprehensive field survey using a Dictyocaulus viviparus major sperm protein ELISA on bulk tank milk samples from Belgian dairy herds to gain insights in: (1) the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of the test under field conditions; (2) the value of the test to predict a future clinical lungworm outbreak; (3) its associations with milk production parameters and (4) its associations with herd management factors. A total of 1248 herds were sampled, with samplings occurring in the middle ("August") and towards the end ("October") of the grazing season...
December 15, 2016: Veterinary Parasitology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27887586/hepatitis-e-virus-seroepidemiology-a-post-earthquake-study-among-blood-donors-in-nepal
#16
Ashish C Shrestha, Robert L P Flower, Clive R Seed, Manita Rajkarnikar, Shrawan K Shrestha, Uru Thapa, Veronica C Hoad, Helen M Faddy
BACKGROUND: As one of the causative agents of viral hepatitis, hepatitis E virus (HEV) has gained public health attention globally. HEV epidemics occur in developing countries, associated with faecal contamination of water and poor sanitation. In industrialised nations, HEV infections are associated with travel to countries endemic for HEV, however, autochthonous infections, mainly through zoonotic transmission, are increasingly being reported. HEV can also be transmitted by blood transfusion...
November 25, 2016: BMC Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27872612/systems-biomedicine-of-rabies-delineates-the-affected-signaling-pathways
#17
Sadegh Azimzadeh Jamalkandi, Sayed-Hamidreza Mozhgani, Hamid Gholami Pourbadie, Mehdi Mirzaie, Farshid Noorbakhsh, Behrouz Vaziri, Alireza Gholami, Naser Ansari-Pour, Mohieddin Jafari
The prototypical neurotropic virus, rabies, is a member of the Rhabdoviridae family that causes lethal encephalomyelitis. Although there have been a plethora of studies investigating the etiological mechanism of the rabies virus and many precautionary methods have been implemented to avert the disease outbreak over the last century, the disease has surprisingly no definite remedy at its late stages. The psychological symptoms and the underlying etiology, as well as the rare survival rate from rabies encephalitis, has still remained a mystery...
2016: Frontiers in Microbiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27869386/prediction-of-the-respiratory-syncitial-virus-epidemic-using-climate-variables-in-bogot%C3%A3-d-c
#18
Gilberto González-Parra, José F Querales, Diego Aranda
lntroduction: The respiratory syncitial virus is one of the most common causes of mortality in children and older adults in the world. Objective: To predict the initial week of outbreaks and to establish the most relevant climate variables using naive Bayes classifiers and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). Materials and methods: The initial dates of the outbreaks in children less than five years old for the period 2005-2010 were obtained for Bogotá, Colombia. We selected the climatological variables using a correlation matrix and we constructed 1,020 models using different climatological variables and data from different weeks previous to the initial outbreak...
September 1, 2016: Biomédica: Revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27866492/predictive-modelling-of-ross-river-virus-notifications-in-southeastern-australia
#19
Z Cutcher, E Williamson, S E Lynch, S Rowe, H J Clothier, S M Firestone
Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-borne virus endemic to Australia. The disease, marked by arthritis, myalgia and rash, has a complex epidemiology involving several mosquito species and wildlife reservoirs. Outbreak years coincide with climatic conditions conducive to mosquito population growth. We developed regression models for human RRV notifications in the Mildura Local Government Area, Victoria, Australia with the objective of increasing understanding of the relationships in this complex system, providing trigger points for intervention and developing a forecast model...
November 21, 2016: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27863533/ecological-niche-modelling-of-rift-valley-fever-virus-vectors-in-baringo-kenya
#20
Alfred O Ochieng, Mark Nanyingi, Edwin Kipruto, Isabella M Ondiba, Fred A Amimo, Christopher Oludhe, Daniel O Olago, Isaac K Nyamongo, Benson B A Estambale
BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that has an impact on human health and animal productivity. Here, we explore the use of vector presence modelling to predict the distribution of RVF vector species under climate change scenario to demonstrate the potential for geographic spread of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of climate change on RVF vector distribution in Baringo County, Kenya, with an aim of developing a risk map for spatial prediction of RVF outbreaks...
2016: Infection Ecology & Epidemiology
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