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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29778013/using-google-trends-and-ambient-temperature-to-predict-seasonal-influenza-outbreaks
#1
Yuzhou Zhang, Hilary Bambrick, Kerrie Mengersen, Shilu Tong, Wenbiao Hu
BACKGROUND: The discovery of the dynamics of seasonal and non-seasonal influenza outbreaks remains a great challenge. Previous internet-based surveillance studies built purely on internet or climate data do have potential error. METHODS: We collected influenza notifications, temperature and Google Trends (GT) data between January 1st, 2011 and December 31st, 2016. We performed time-series cross correlation analysis and temporal risk analysis to discover the characteristics of influenza epidemics in the period...
May 16, 2018: Environment International
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29776021/tuning-the-overlap-and-the-cross-layer-correlations-in-two-layer-networks-application-to-a-susceptible-infectious-recovered-model-with-awareness-dissemination
#2
David Juher, Joan Saldaña
We study the properties of the potential overlap between two networks A,B sharing the same set of N nodes (a two-layer network) whose respective degree distributions p_{A}(k),p_{B}(k) are given. Defining the overlap coefficient α as the Jaccard index, we prove that α is very close to 0 when A and B are random and independently generated. We derive an upper bound α_{M} for the maximum overlap coefficient permitted in terms of p_{A}(k), p_{B}(k), and N. Then we present an algorithm based on cross rewiring of links to obtain a two-layer network with any prescribed α inside the range (0,α_{M})...
March 2018: Physical Review. E
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29774217/effective-network-size-predicted-from-simulations-of-pathogen-outbreaks-through-social-networks-provides-a-novel-measure-of-structure-standardized-group-size
#3
Collin M McCabe, Charles L Nunn
The transmission of infectious disease through a population is often modeled assuming that interactions occur randomly in groups, with all individuals potentially interacting with all other individuals at an equal rate. However, it is well known that pairs of individuals vary in their degree of contact. Here, we propose a measure to account for such heterogeneity: effective network size (ENS), which refers to the size of a maximally complete network (i.e., unstructured, where all individuals interact with all others equally) that corresponds to the outbreak characteristics of a given heterogeneous, structured network...
2018: Frontiers in Veterinary Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29773962/discovery-and-validation-of-genomic-regions-associated-with-resistance-to-maize-lethal-necrosis-in-four-biparental-populations
#4
Manje Gowda, Yoseph Beyene, Dan Makumbi, Kassa Semagn, Michael S Olsen, Jumbo M Bright, Biswanath Das, Stephen Mugo, L M Suresh, Boddupalli M Prasanna
In sub-Saharan Africa, maize is the key determinant of food security for smallholder farmers. The sudden outbreak of maize lethal necrosis (MLN) disease is seriously threatening the maize production in the region. Understanding the genetic basis of MLN resistance is crucial. In this study, we used four biparental populations applied linkage mapping and joint linkage mapping approaches to identify and validate the MLN resistance-associated genomic regions. All populations were genotyped with low to high density markers and phenotyped in multiple environments against MLN under artificial inoculation...
2018: Molecular Breeding: New Strategies in Plant Improvement
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29770047/emerging-infectious-diseases-prediction-and-detection
#5
N H Ogden, P AbdelMalik, Jrc Pulliam
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), including West Nile virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Lyme disease, have had a direct effect within Canada, while many more EIDs such as Zika, chikungunya and Ebola are a threat to Canadians while travelling. Over 75% of EIDs affecting humans are, or were originally, zoonoses (infectious diseases transmitted from animals to humans). There are two main ways by which infectious diseases can emerge: by changes in their geographical ranges and by adaptive emergence, a genetic change in a microorganism that results in it becoming capable of invading a new niche, often by jumping to a new host species such as humans...
October 5, 2017: Canada Communicable Disease Report, Relevé des Maladies Transmissibles Au Canada
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29768401/near-real-time-forecasting-for-cholera-decision-making-in-haiti-after-hurricane-matthew
#6
Damiano Pasetto, Flavio Finger, Anton Camacho, Francesco Grandesso, Sandra Cohuet, Joseph C Lemaitre, Andrew S Azman, Francisco J Luquero, Enrico Bertuzzo, Andrea Rinaldo
Computational models of cholera transmission can provide objective insights into the course of an ongoing epidemic and aid decision making on allocation of health care resources. However, models are typically designed, calibrated and interpreted post-hoc. Here, we report the efforts of a team from academia, field research and humanitarian organizations to model in near real-time the Haitian cholera outbreak after Hurricane Matthew in October 2016, to assess risk and to quantitatively estimate the efficacy of a then ongoing vaccination campaign...
May 16, 2018: PLoS Computational Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29763937/bacteriophage-cocktail-for-biocontrol-of-escherichia-coli-o157-h7-stability-and-potential-allergenicity-study
#7
Karina Ramirez, Carmina Cazarez-Montoya, Hector Samuel Lopez-Moreno, Nohelia Castro-Del Campo
Escherichia coli O157:H7 has become a global public health and a food safety problem. Despite the implementation of control strategies that guarantee the safety in various products, outbreaks persist and new alternatives are necessary to reduce this pathogen along the food chain. Recently, our group isolated and characterised lytic bacteriophages against E. coli O157:H7 with potential to be used as biocontrol agents in food. To this end, phages need certain requirements to allow their manufacture and application...
2018: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29757517/modeling-a-single-season-of-aedes-albopictus-populations-based-on-host-seeking-data-in-response-to-temperature-and-precipitation-in-eastern-tennessee
#8
James Nance, Rebecca Trout Fryxell, Suzanne Lenhart
In the southern Appalachia of the U.S., Aedes mosquitoes maintain and transmit La Crosse virus (LACV) which causes La Crosse encephalitis, a neuroinvasive disease of children. In response to mosquito outbreaks, communities organize prevention, detection, and response measures that are dependent on local characteristics of the mosquito population and the community. Knowing Ae. albopictus is an accessory vector of LACV and a nuisance biter, our objective was to build a system of ordinary differential equations to model dynamics in a single season using our data and readily available environmental variables that can reflect the abundance and activity of Ae...
June 2018: Journal of Vector Ecology: Journal of the Society for Vector Ecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29757010/a-quantitative-risk-assessment-of-human-salmonellosis-from-consumption-of-pistachios-in-the-united-states
#9
Sofia M Santillana Farakos, Régis Pouillot, Gordon R Davidson, Rhoma Johnson, Judith Spungen, Insook Son, Nathan Anderson, Jane M VAN Doren
We developed a quantitative risk assessment model to assess the risk of human nontyphoidal salmonellosis from consumption of pistachios in the United States and to evaluate the impact of Salmonella treatments (1- to 5-log reductions). The exposure model estimating prevalence and contamination levels of Salmonella at consumption included steps in pistachio processing such as transport from grower to huller, removal of the hull through wet abrasion, separation of pistachio floaters (immature, smaller nuts) and sinkers (mature, larger nuts) in a flotation tank, drying, storage, and partitioning...
May 14, 2018: Journal of Food Protection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29751672/a-simulation-based-study-on-the-comparison-of-statistical-and-time-series-forecasting-methods-for-early-detection-of-infectious-disease-outbreaks
#10
Eunjoo Yang, Hyun Woo Park, Yeon Hwa Choi, Jusim Kim, Lkhagvadorj Munkhdalai, Ibrahim Musa, Keun Ho Ryu
Early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is one of the important and significant issues in syndromic surveillance systems. It helps to provide a rapid epidemiological response and reduce morbidity and mortality. In order to upgrade the current system at the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), a comparative study of state-of-the-art techniques is required. We compared four different temporal outbreak detection algorithms: the CUmulative SUM (CUSUM), the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS), the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and the Holt-Winters algorithm...
May 11, 2018: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29751133/the-threat-of-meningococcal-disease-during-the-hajj-and-umrah-mass-gatherings-a-comprehensive-review
#11
REVIEW
Saber Yezli
The Hajj and Umrah mass gatherings represent many of the risk factors for meningococcal disease and have historically been associated with both local and international outbreaks of the disease. The implementation of strict preventative measures including mandatory meningococcal vaccination with the quadrivalent (A,C,Y,W) vaccine has prevented pilgrimage-associated meningococcal outbreaks and significantly reduced the incidence of the disease at these events. However, meningococcal disease remains an important public health threat at the Hajj and Umrah due in part to the evolving nature of the disease, characterized with diverse and varying geographic trends, fluctuations in incidence and shifts in serogroups and genotypes...
May 8, 2018: Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29746468/seasonal-temperature-variation-influences-climate-suitability-for-dengue-chikungunya-and-zika-transmission
#12
John H Huber, Marissa L Childs, Jamie M Caldwell, Erin A Mordecai
Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures...
May 10, 2018: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29729675/probable-transmission-routes-of-the-influenza-virus-in-a-nosocomial-outbreak
#13
S Xiao, J W Tang, D S Hui, H Lei, H Yu, Y Li
Influenza is a long-standing public health concern, but its transmission remains poorly understood. To have a better knowledge of influenza transmission, we carried out a detailed modelling investigation in a nosocomial influenza outbreak in Hong Kong. We identified three hypothesised transmission modes between index patient and other inpatients based on the long-range airborne and fomite routes. We considered three kinds of healthcare workers' routine round pathways in 1140 scenarios with various values of important parameters...
May 6, 2018: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29727611/improving-the-prediction-of-arbovirus-outbreaks-a-comparison-of-climate-driven-models-for-west-nile-virus-in-an-endemic-region-of-the-united-states
#14
Justin K Davis, Geoffrey P Vincent, Michael B Hildreth, Lon Kightlinger, Michael C Wimberly
Models that forecast the timing and location of human arboviral disease have the potential to make mosquito control and disease prevention more effective. A common approach is to use statistical time series models that predict disease cases as a lagged function of environmental variables. However, the simplifying assumptions required for standard modeling approaches may not capture important aspects of complex, non-linear transmission cycles. Here, we compared a set of alternative models of human West Nile virus (WNV) in 2004-2017 in South Dakota, USA...
May 1, 2018: Acta Tropica
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29727447/early-warning-and-response-system-ewars-for-dengue-outbreaks-recent-advancements-towards-widespread-applications-in-critical-settings
#15
Laith Hussain-Alkhateeb, Axel Kroeger, Piero Olliaro, Joacim Rocklöv, Maquins Odhiambo Sewe, Gustavo Tejeda, David Benitez, Balvinder Gill, S Lokman Hakim, Roberta Gomes Carvalho, Leigh Bowman, Max Petzold
BACKGROUND: Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people's health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS) is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level...
2018: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29724185/clonal-diversity-and-genetic-profiling-of-antibiotic-resistance-among-multidrug-carbapenem-resistant-klebsiella-pneumoniae-isolates-from-a-tertiary-care-hospital-in-saudi-arabia
#16
Taher Uz Zaman, Maha Alrodayyan, Maha Albladi, Mohammed Aldrees, Mohammed Ismail Siddique, Sameera Aljohani, Hanan H Balkhy
BACKGROUND: The nexus between resistance determinants, plasmid type, and clonality appears to play a crucial role in the dissemination and survival of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP). The incidence of infections involving CRKP in Saudi Arabia is increasing and there is a need for detailed molecular profiling of this pathogen for CRKP surveillance and control. METHODS: The resistance determinants of 71 non-redundant CRKP isolates were investigated by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing...
May 3, 2018: BMC Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29721271/reduction-and-recovery-of-keystone-predation-pressure-after-disease-related-mass-mortality
#17
Monica M Moritsch, Peter T Raimondi
Disturbances such as disease can reshape communities through interruption of ecological interactions. Changes to population demographics alter how effectively a species performs its ecological role. While a population may recover in density, this may not translate to recovery of ecological function. In 2013, a sea star wasting syndrome outbreak caused mass mortality of the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus on the North American Pacific coast. We analyzed sea star counts, biomass, size distributions, and recruitment from long-term intertidal monitoring sites from San Diego to Alaska to assess regional trends in sea star recovery following the outbreak...
April 2018: Ecology and Evolution
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29713899/global-diversity-and-distribution-of-hantaviruses-and-their-hosts
#18
REVIEW
Matthew T Milholland, Iván Castro-Arellano, Gerardo Suzán, Gabriel E Garcia-Peña, Thomas E Lee, Rodney E Rohde, A Alonso Aguirre, James N Mills
Rodents represent 42% of the world's mammalian biodiversity encompassing 2,277 species populating every continent (except Antarctica) and are reservoir hosts for a wide diversity of disease agents. Thus, knowing the identity, diversity, host-pathogen relationships, and geographic distribution of rodent-borne zoonotic pathogens, is essential for predicting and mitigating zoonotic disease outbreaks. Hantaviruses are hosted by numerous rodent reservoirs. However, the diversity of rodents harboring hantaviruses is likely unknown because research is biased toward specific reservoir hosts and viruses...
April 30, 2018: EcoHealth
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29712956/parallel-evolution-of-vgsc-mutations-at-domains-is6-iis6-and-iiis6-in-pyrethroid-resistant-aedes-aegypti-from-mexico
#19
Karla Saavedra-Rodriguez, Farah Vera Maloof, Corey L Campbell, Julian Garcia-Rejon, Audrey Lenhart, Patricia Penilla, Americo Rodriguez, Arturo Acero Sandoval, Adriana E Flores, Gustavo Ponce, Saul Lozano, William C Black
Aedes aegypti is the primary urban mosquito vector of viruses causing dengue, Zika and chikungunya fevers -for which vaccines and effective pharmaceuticals are still lacking. Current strategies to suppress arbovirus outbreaks include removal of larval-breeding sites and insecticide treatment of larval and adult populations. Insecticidal control of Ae. aegypti is challenging, due to a recent rapid global increase in knockdown-resistance (kdr) to pyrethroid insecticides. Widespread, heavy use of pyrethroid space-sprays has created an immense selection pressure for kdr, which is primarily under the control of the voltage-gated sodium channel gene (vgsc)...
April 30, 2018: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29710595/explaining-and-modeling-the-concentration-and-loading-of-escherichia-coli-in-a-stream-a-case-study
#20
Chaozi Wang, Rebecca L Schneider, Jean-Yves Parlange, Helen E Dahlke, M Todd Walter
Escherichia coli (E. coli) level in streams is a public health indicator. Therefore, being able to explain why E. coli levels are sometimes high and sometimes low is important. Using citizen science data from Fall Creek in central NY we found that complementarily using principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) regression provided insights into the drivers of E. coli and a mechanism for predicting E. coli levels, respectively. We found that stormwater, temperature/season and shallow subsurface flow are the three dominant processes driving the fate and transport of E...
April 24, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
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