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Outbreak prediction

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28433529/antimicrobial-peptides-within-the-yellowtail-kingfish-seriola-lalandi
#1
Simon Muncaster, Kirsty Kraakman, Olivia Gibbons, Koen Mensink, Maria Forlenza, Gregory Jacobson, Steve Bird
A number of Seriola species are currently farmed or being investigated as future aquaculture species in countries around the world. However they face a number of issues and limitations which will need to be overcome to ensure future stability and growth, one of which are disease outbreaks. Despite this, very little has been done to understand the immune system of Seriola species and very few immune genes have been characterised. Antimicrobial peptides (AMP) are naturally occurring low molecular weight polypeptides that play a major role in an organism's immune system and act effectively as a first line of defence...
April 19, 2017: Developmental and Comparative Immunology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28431862/application-of-the-cdc-ebolaresponse-modeling-tool-to-disease-predictions
#2
Robert H Gaffey, Cécile Viboud
Model-based predictions were critical in eliciting a vigorous international public health response to the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in West Africa. Here, we describe the performances of an extension of the CDC-initiated EbolaResponse Modeling tool to the Ebola Forecasting Challenge, which offered a controlled environment for epidemiological predictions. In the EbolaResponse tool, transmission risks and proportions of population affected by interventions were fitted to data via least square fitting. Prediction performances were evaluated for 5 prediction time points of 4 synthetic outbreaks...
March 10, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28414720/land-altitude-slope-and-coverage-as-risk-factors-for-porcine-reproductive-and-respiratory-syndrome-prrs-outbreaks-in-the-united-states
#3
Andréia Gonçalves Arruda, Carles Vilalta, Andres Perez, Robert Morrison
Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is, arguably, the most impactful disease on the North American swine industry. The Swine Health Monitoring Project (SHMP) is a national volunteer initiative aimed at monitoring incidence and, ultimately, supporting swine disease control, including PRRS. Data collected through the SHMP currently represents approximately 42% of the sow population of the United States. The objective of the study here was to investigate the association between geographical factors (including land elevation, and land coverage) and PRRS incidence as recorded in the SHMP...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28414255/a-quantitative-assessment-of-the-risk-of-human-salmonellosis-arising-from-the-consumption-of-almonds-in-the-united-states-the-impact-of-preventive-treatment-levels
#4
Sofia M Santillana Farakos, Régis Pouillot, Rhoma Johnson, Judith Spungen, Insook Son, Nathan Anderson, Jane M Van Doren
The presence of Salmonella on almonds continues to result in product-related outbreaks and recalls in the United States. In this study, the impact of microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) on the risk of human salmonellosis from the consumption of almond kernels in the United States was evaluated. An exposure model, including major steps in almond processing, was used to estimate prevalence and levels of contamination of Salmonella on almonds at the point of consumption. A Salmonella dose-response model and consumption data for almonds in the United States were used to assess risk of illness per serving and per year, quantifying variability and uncertainty separately...
April 17, 2017: Journal of Food Protection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28414002/global-importation-and-population-risk-factors-for-measles-in-new-zealand-a-case-study-for-highly-immunized-populations
#5
D T S Hayman, J C Marshall, N P French, T E Carpenter, M G Roberts, T Kiedrzynski
As endemic measles is eliminated through immunization, countries must determine the risk factors for the importation of measles into highly immunized populations to target control measures. Despite eliminating endemic measles, New Zealand suffers from outbreaks after introductions from abroad, enabling us to use it as a model for measles introduction risk. We used a generalized linear model to analyze risk factors for 1137 measles cases from 2007 to June 2014, provide estimates of national immunity levels, and model measles importation risk...
April 17, 2017: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28413174/an-outbreak-of-duck-hepatitis-a-virus-type-1-infection-in-japan
#6
Masahiro Kamomae, Mamoru Kameyama, Jun Ishii, Mikoto Nabe, Yuji Ogura, Hiroshi Iseki, Yu Yamamoto, Masaji Mase
In June 2015, a highly fatal and acute disease broke out in a duckling farm in Hyogo Prefecture, Japan. The birds exhibited poor growth, reduced movement, lying in a dorsal recumbent position, depression, lethargy, ataxia and opisthotonus, with a high mortality rate of approximately 76%. By performing a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using primers specific for duck hepatitis A virus type 1 (DHAV-1), we obtained the PCR products of a predicted size. The nucleotide sequences of the PCR products showed a >96% identity with that of the DHAV-1, HB02 strain, which was isolated in China...
April 11, 2017: Journal of Veterinary Medical Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28408684/draft-genome-sequence-of-the-fish-pathogen-flavobacterium-columnare-strain-csf-298-10
#7
Jason P Evenhuis, Scott E LaPatra, Joerg Graf
We announce here the draft genome assembly of Flavobacterium columnare CSF-298-10, a strain isolated from an outbreak of columnaris disease at a commercial trout farm in Hagerman Valley, Idaho, USA. The complete genome consists of 13 contigs totaling 3,284,579 bp, with an average G+C content of 31.5% and 2,933 predicted coding genes.
April 13, 2017: Genome Announcements
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28403172/a-first-estimate-of-the-structure-and-density-of-the-populations-of-pet-cats-and-dogs-across-great-britain
#8
James Aegerter, David Fouracre, Graham C Smith
Policy development, implementation, and effective contingency response rely on a strong evidence base to ensure success and cost-effectiveness. Where this includes preventing the establishment or spread of zoonotic or veterinary diseases infecting companion cats and dogs, descriptions of the structure and density of the populations of these pets are useful. Similarly, such descriptions may help in supporting diverse fields of study such as; evidence-based veterinary practice, veterinary epidemiology, public health and ecology...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28400595/prediction-of-bacterial-contamination-outbursts-in-water-wells-through-sparse-coding
#9
Levi Frolich, Dalit Vaizel-Ohayon, Barak Fishbain
Maintaining water quality is critical for any water distribution company. One of the major concerns in water quality assurance, is bacterial contamination in water sources. To date, bacteria growth models cannot predict with sufficient accuracy when a bacteria outburst will occur in a water well. This is partly due to the natural sparsity of the bacteria count time series, which hinders the observation of deviations from normal behavior. This precludes the application of mathematical models nor statistical quality control methods for the detection of high bacteria counts before contamination occurs...
April 11, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28396862/semiquantitative-decision-tools-for-fmd-emergency-vaccination-informed-by-field-observations-and-simulated-outbreak-data
#10
Preben William Willeberg, Mohammad AlKhamis, Anette Boklund, Andres M Perez, Claes Enøe, Tariq Halasa
We present two simple, semiquantitative model-based decision tools, based on the principle of first 14 days incidence (FFI). The aim is to estimate the likelihood and the consequences, respectively, of the ultimate size of an ongoing FMD epidemic. The tools allow risk assessors to communicate timely, objectively, and efficiently to risk managers and less technically inclined stakeholders about the potential of introducing FMD suppressive emergency vaccination. To explore the FFI principle with complementary field data, we analyzed the FMD outbreaks in Argentina in 2001, with the 17 affected provinces as the units of observation...
2017: Frontiers in Veterinary Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28396474/evaluating-the-frequency-of-asymptomatic-ebola-virus-infection
#11
Placide Mbala, Marc Baguelin, Ipos Ngay, Alicia Rosello, Prime Mulembakani, Nikolaos Demiris, W John Edmunds, Jean-Jacques Muyembe
The potential for asymptomatic infection from Ebola viruses has long been questioned. Knowing the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic substantially changes the predictions made by mathematical models and alters the corresponding decisions based upon these models. To assess the degree of asymptomatic infection occurring during an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, we carried out a serological survey in the Djera district of the Equateur province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo affected by an Ebola outbreak in 2014...
May 26, 2017: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28396277/duodenoscope-reprocessing-surveillance-with-adenosine-triphosphate-testing-and-terminal-cultures-a-clinical-pilot-study
#12
Kavel Visrodia, Yuri Hanada, Kelly M Pennington, Pritish K Tosh, Mark D Topazian, Bret T Petersen
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recent reports of infectious outbreaks linked to duodenoscopes have led to proposals for duodenoscope surveillance culturing, which has inherent limitations. We aimed to assess the feasibility of real-time adenosine triphosphate (ATP) testing after manual cleaning, and its ability to predict reprocessing adequacy, as determined by terminal duodenoscope cultures. METHODS: Clinically used duodenoscopes underwent reprocessing per current guidelines...
April 7, 2017: Gastrointestinal Endoscopy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28394028/the-dynamics-of-transmission-and-the-dynamics-of-networks
#13
Damien Farine
A toy example depicted here highlighting the results of a study in this issue of the Journal of Animal Ecology that investigates the impact of network dynamics on potential disease outbreaks. Infections (stars) that spread by contact only (left) reduce the predicted outbreak size compared to situations where individuals can become infected by moving through areas that previously contained infected individuals (right). This is potentially important in species where individuals, or in this case groups, have overlapping ranges (as depicted on the top right)...
May 2017: Journal of Animal Ecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28393875/oldest-varroa-tolerant-honey-bee-population-provides-insight-into-the-origins-of-the-global-decline-of-honey-bees
#14
L E Brettell, S J Martin
The ecto-parasitic mite Varroa destructor has transformed the previously inconsequential Deformed Wing Virus (DWV) into the most important honey bee viral pathogen responsible for the death of millions of colonies worldwide. Naturally, DWV persists as a low level covert infection transmitted between nest-mates. It has long been speculated that Varroa via immunosuppression of the bees, activate a covert infection into an overt one. Here we show that despite Varroa feeding on a population of 20-40 colonies for over 30 years on the remote island of Fernando de Noronha, Brazil no such activation has occurred and DWV loads have remained at borderline levels of detection...
April 10, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28389276/whole-genome-sequencing-of-shigella-sonnei-through-pulsenet-latin-america-and-caribbean-advancing-global-surveillance-of-foodborne-illnesses
#15
Kate Susan Baker, Josefina Campos, Mariana Pichel, Anabella Della Gaspera, Francisco Duarte-Martínez, Elena Campos-Chacón, Hilda María Bolaños-Acuña, Caterina Guzman-Verri, Alison E Mather, Susana Diaz Velasco, Maria Luz Zamudio Rojas, Jessica Forbester, Thomas Richard Connor, Karen Helena Keddy, Anthony Marius Smith, Enedia A Lopez de Delgado, Giovanny Angiolillo, Nirvia Cuaical, Jorge Fernandez, Carolina Aguayo, Melissa Morales Aguilar, Claudia Valenzuela, Ana Judith Morales Medrano, Alfredo Sirok Esteve, Natalie Weiler Gustafson, Paula Lucia Diaz Guevara, Lucy Angeline Montaño, Enrique Perez, Nicholas R Thomson
OBJECTIVE: Shigella sonnei is a globally-important diarrhoeal pathogen tracked through the surveillance network PulseNet Latin America and Caribbean (PNLA&C), which participates in PulseNet International. PNLA&C laboratories use common molecular techniques to track pathogens causing foodborne illness. We aimed to demonstrate the possibility and advantages of transitioning to whole genome sequencing (WGS) for surveillance within existing networks across a continent where S. sonnei is endemic...
April 4, 2017: Clinical Microbiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28386202/detecting-early-warning-signals-for-influenza-a-pandemic-based-on-protein-dynamical-network-biomarkers
#16
Jie Gao, Kang Wang, Tao Ding
The outbreak of influenza A comes from a relatively stable state is a critical phenomenon on epidemic. In this paper, influenza A varying from different states is studied in the method of dynamical network biomarkers (DNB). Through studying DNB of influenza A virus protein, we can detect the warning signals of outbreak for influenza A and obtain a composite index. The composite index varies along with the state of pandemic influenza, which gives a clue showing the turn point of outbreak. The low value (<1) steady state of the composite index means influenza A is normally in the relatively steady stage...
March 2017: Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28382789/lag-of-immunity-across-seasonal-acclimation-states-in-gopher-tortoises-gopherus-polyphemus
#17
Jeffrey M Goessling, Shane A Koler, Brian D Overman, Elizabeth M Hiltbold, Craig Guyer, Mary T Mendonça
Disease outbreaks are of increasing importance to ectothermic vertebrates as one of numerous results of global change. Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to increase climatic instability, thereby altering natural thermal environments. In this study, we evaluated the direct effects of rapid temperature change on immunity in Gopher Tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus). Specifically, we tested the lag hypothesis, which predicts significant misalignment of optimal and realized immunity when temperature rapidly changes...
April 6, 2017: Journal of Experimental Zoology. Part A, Ecological Genetics and Physiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28375167/visualization-of-alternative-functional-configurations-of-influenza-virus-hemagglutinin-facilitates-rapid-selection-of-complementing-vaccines-in-emergency-situations
#18
Ashraf Metwally, Ausama Yousif
Successful immunization against avian influenza virus (AIV) requires eliciting an adequate polyclonal response to AIV hemagglutinin (HA) subunit 1 (HA1) epitopes. Outbreaks of highly-pathogenic (HP) AIV subtype H5N1 can occur in vaccinated flocks in many endemic areas. Protection against emerging AIV is partly hindered by the limitations of vaccine production and transport, the use of leaky vaccines, and the use of multiple, and often antigenically-diverse, vaccines. It was hypothesized that the majority of alternative functional configurations (AFC) within the AIV HA1 can be represented by the pool of vaccine seed viruses currently in production because only a finite number of AFC are possible within each substructure of the molecule...
April 4, 2017: International Journal of Molecular Sciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28369082/quantifying-the-roles-of-host-movement-and-vector-dispersal-in-the-transmission-of-vector-borne-diseases-of-livestock
#19
Tom Sumner, Richard J Orton, Darren M Green, Rowland R Kao, Simon Gubbins
The role of host movement in the spread of vector-borne diseases of livestock has been little studied. Here we develop a mathematical framework that allows us to disentangle and quantify the roles of vector dispersal and livestock movement in transmission between farms. We apply this framework to outbreaks of bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in Great Britain, both of which are spread by Culicoides biting midges and have recently emerged in northern Europe. For BTV we estimate parameters by fitting the model to outbreak data using approximate Bayesian computation, while for SBV we use previously derived estimates...
April 2017: PLoS Computational Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28367875/laboratory-and-molecular-characterization-of-dengue-virus-during-the-2014-outbreak-in-guangfo-region-southern-china
#20
Zhao-Fan Luo, Bo Hu, Feng-Yi Zhang, Xiang-Hua Lin, Xiao-Ying Xie, Kun-Yi Pan, Hong-Yu Li, Rui-Wen Ren, Wen-Zhong Zhao
Non-specific symptoms and low viremia levels make early diagnosis of dengue virus (DENV) infection challenging. This study aimed to 1) identify laboratory markers which can predict a positive laboratory diagnosis, and 2) perform a molecular characterization of DENV from the 2014 Guangdong epidemic. This retrospective study enrolled 1044 patients from the Guangdong epidemic who had clinically suspected dengue. Viral RNA was detected by real-time RT-PCR and viral-specific NS1 antigen was detected using ELISA...
March 28, 2017: Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases
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