keyword
MENU ▼
Read by QxMD icon Read
search

Outbreak prediction

keyword
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28344362/positive-serum-ethanol-concentration-on-admission-to-hospital-as-the-factor-predictive-of-treatment-outcome-in-acute-methanol-poisoning
#1
Sergey Zakharov, Olga Nurieva, Katerina Kotikova, Jaromir Belacek, Tomas Navratil, Daniela Pelclova
ABSTRACT: Mass methanol poisonings present a serious problem for health systems worldwide, with poor outcome associated with delayed treatment. Positive pre-hospital serum ethanol concentration may have predictive value as the prognostic factor of the treatment outcome. We studied the effect of positive serum ethanol level on admission to hospital on survival in patients treated during the Czech methanol outbreak during 2012-2014. Cross-sectional cohort study was performed in 100 hospitalized patients with confirmed methanol poisoning...
2017: Monatshefte Für Chemie
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28343779/antigenic-and-immunogenic-spectrum-of-foot-and-mouth-disease-vaccine-strain-o1-campos-against-representative-viruses-of-topotypes-that-circulated-in-asia-over-the-past-decade
#2
S Galdo Novo, V Malirat, E D Maradei, A M Espinoza, E Smitsaart, A R Pedemonte, N Mattion, I E Bergmann
Identifying vaccine strains to control outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease virus that could spread to new regions is essential for contingency plans. This is the first report on the antigenic/immunogenic relationships of the South American O1/Campos vaccine strain with representative isolates of the three currently active Asian type O topotypes. Virus neutralization tests using O1/Campos post-vaccination sera derived from cattle and pigs predicted for both species acceptable cross-protection, even after single vaccination, established by r1 values and by expectancy of protection using monovalent or polyvalent vaccines...
March 23, 2017: Vaccine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28342787/forecasting-ebola-with-a-regression-transmission-model
#3
Jason Asher
We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes traditional Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease modeling approaches and allows for the flexible consideration of outbreaks with complex trajectories of disease dynamics...
February 27, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28339472/vector-status-of-aedes-species-determines-geographical-risk-of-autochthonous-zika-virus-establishment
#4
Lauren Gardner, Nan Chen, Sahotra Sarkar
BACKGROUND: The 2015-16 Zika virus pandemic originating in Latin America led to predictions of a catastrophic global spread of the disease. Since the current outbreak began in Brazil in May 2015 local transmission of Zika has been reported in over 60 countries and territories, with over 750 thousand confirmed and suspected cases. As a result of its range expansion attention has focused on possible modes of transmission, of which the arthropod vector-based disease spread cycle involving Aedes species is believed to be the most important...
March 24, 2017: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28335525/the-history-of-clotting-factor-concentrates-pharmacokinetics
#5
REVIEW
Massimo Morfini
Clotting factor concentrates (CFCs) underwent tremendous modifications during the last forty years. Plasma-derived concentrates made the replacement therapy feasible not only in the hospital but also at patients' home by on-demand or prophylactic regimen. Virucidal methods, implemented soon after hepatitis and AIDS outbreak, and purification by Mabs made the plasma-derived concentrates safer and purer. CFCs were considered equivalent to the other drugs and general rules and methods of pharmacokinetics (PK) were applied to their study...
March 20, 2017: Journal of Clinical Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28330886/preclinical-diagnosis-predicting-its-ability-to-improve-control-of-farm-to-farm-foot-and-mouth-disease-transmission-in-cattle
#6
Noel Nelson, David J Paton, Simon Gubbins, Claire Colenutt, Emma Brown, Sophia Hodgson, Jose L Gonzales
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) can cause large disruptive epidemics in livestock. Current eradication measures rely on the rapid clinical detection and removal of infected herds. Here, we have evaluated the potential for preclinical diagnosis during reactive surveillance to reduce the risk of between farm transmission. We used data from transmission experiments in cattle where both individual animal samples, such as blood, probang, saliva or nasal swabs, and herd level samples, such as air samples, were taken daily during the course of infection...
March 22, 2017: Journal of Clinical Microbiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28325494/modelling-h5n1-in-bangladesh-across-spatial-scales-model-complexity-and-zoonotic-transmission-risk
#7
Edward M Hill, Thomas House, Madhur S Dhingra, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Subhash Morzaria, Muzaffar G Osmani, Mat Yamage, Xiangming Xiao, Marius Gilbert, Michael J Tildesley
Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human-animal interface...
February 21, 2017: Epidemics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28321362/from-eggs-to-bites-do-ovitrap-data-provide-reliable-estimates-of-aedes-albopictus-biting-females
#8
Mattia Manica, Roberto Rosà, Alessandra Della Torre, Beniamino Caputo
BACKGROUND: Aedes albopictus is an aggressive invasive mosquito species that represents a serious health concern not only in tropical areas, but also in temperate regions due to its role as vector of arboviruses. Estimates of mosquito biting rates are essential to account for vector-human contact in models aimed to predict the risk of arbovirus autochthonous transmission and outbreaks, as well as nuisance thresholds useful for correct planning of mosquito control interventions. Methods targeting daytime and outdoor biting Ae...
2017: PeerJ
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28319839/escherichia-coli-removal-from-model-substrates-underlying-mechanism-based-on-nanofluid-structural-forces
#9
Jiyoung Shim, Alex Nikolov, Darsh Wasan
Understanding the interactions between bacteria and solid surfaces that result in bacterial adhesion and removal is of immense importance for reducing foodborne illness outbreaks. A nanofluid formulation comprised of a sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) micellar aqueous solution in the presence of an organic acid (as a pH controller) was used to test the E. coli K12 removal from two substrates, polyvinylchloride (PVC) and partially hydrophobic glass. We investigated the bacterial removal efficacy based on the combined effect of the nanofluid's structural forces and bacterial isoelectric point...
March 12, 2017: Journal of Colloid and Interface Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28316286/brassica-aphid-hemiptera-aphididae-populations-are-conditioned-by-climatic-variables-and-parasitism-level-a-study-case-of-tri%C3%A3-ngulo-mineiro-brazil
#10
M V Sampaio, A P Korndörfer, J Pujade-Villar, J E A Hubaide, S E Ferreira, S O Arantes, D M Bortoletto, C M Guimarães, J A Sánchez-Espigares, B Caballero-López
Cosmopolitan pests such as Brevicoryne brassicae, Lipaphis pseudobrassicae, and Myzus persicae (Aphididae) cause significant damage to Brassicaceae crops. Assessment of the important biotic and abiotic factors that regulate these pests is an essential step in the development of effective Integrated Pest Management programs for these aphids. This study evaluated the influence of leaf position, precipitation, temperature, and parasitism on populations of L. pseudobrassicae, M. persicae, and B. brassicae in collard greens fields in the Triângulo Mineiro region (Minas Gerais state), Brazil...
March 20, 2017: Bulletin of Entomological Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28315476/comparative-analysis-of-protein-evolution-in-the-genome-of-pre-epidemic-and-epidemic-zika-virus
#11
Arunachalam Ramaiah, Lei Dai, Deisy Contreras, Sanjeev Sinha, Ren Sun, Vaithilingaraja Arumugaswami
Zika virus (ZIKV) causes microcephaly in congenital infection, neurological disorders, and poor pregnancy outcome and no vaccine is available for use in humans or approved. Although ZIKV was first discovered in 1947, the exact mechanism of virus replication and pathogenesis remains unknown. Recent outbreaks of Zika virus in the Americas clearly suggest a human-mosquito cycle or urban cycle of transmission. Understanding the conserved and adaptive features in the evolution of ZIKV genome will provide a hint on the mechanism of ZIKV adaptation to a new cycle of transmission...
March 14, 2017: Infection, Genetics and Evolution
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28303992/predicting-dengue-outbreak-in-the-metropolitan-city-lahore-pakistan-using-dengue-vector-indices-and-selected-climatological-variables-as-predictors
#12
Ejaz Mahmood Ahmad Qureshi, Amtul Bari Tabinda, Seemal Vehra
OBJECTIVE: Dengue viruses have rapidly spread in Southeast Asia, particularly in Pakistan, during the last few years, so the present study was undertaken to formulate a model for predicting dengue outbreak. METHODOLOGY: A panel data using STRATA statistical software was employed to determine the effects of entomological indices, Per Man Hour Density (PMHD), Minimum Infection Rate (MIR) and selected climatic variables on dengue patients by using Fixed Effects (FE) and Random Effects (RE) models...
March 2017: JPMA. the Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28301232/molecular-characterization-of-hemorrhagic-enteritis-viruses-hev-detected-in-hev-vaccinated-commercial-turkey-flocks-in-germany
#13
Tamiru Negash Alkie, Ronald Guenther, Silke Rautenschlein
Despite the application of live hemorrhagic enteritis virus (HEV) vaccines, HEV field outbreaks are suspected to still occur in turkey flocks in Germany. Increasing secondary bacterial infections in HEV-vaccinated flocks suggest that vaccines may be losing efficacy or, possibly, that vaccine strains are causing disease. Thus, the goal of the current study was to investigate the diversity of HEV isolates from fattening turkey flocks between 2008 and 2012 by characterizing the open reading frame (ORF)1 gene at its 5' and 3' ends...
March 2017: Avian Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28298880/h7n9-and-h5n1-avian-influenza-suitability-models-for-china-accounting-for-new-poultry-and-live-poultry-markets-distribution-data
#14
Jean Artois, Shengjie Lai, Luzhao Feng, Hui Jiang, Hang Zhou, Xiangping Li, Madhur S Dhingra, Catherine Linard, Gaëlle Nicolas, Xiangming Xiao, Timothy P Robinson, Hongjie Yu, Marius Gilbert
In the last two decades, two important avian influenza viruses infecting humans emerged in China, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in the late nineties, and the low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H7N9 virus in 2013. China is home to the largest population of chickens (4.83 billion) and ducks (0.694 billion), representing, respectively 23.1 and 58.6% of the 2013 world stock, with a significant part of poultry sold through live-poultry markets potentially contributing to the spread of avian influenza viruses...
2017: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment: Research Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28295891/molecular-serotyping-virulence-gene-profiling-and-pathogenicity-of-streptococcus-agalactiae-isolated-from-tilapia-farms-in-thailand-by-multiplex-pcr
#15
Korntip Kannika, Duangjai Pisuttharachai, Prapansak Srisapoome, Janenuj Wongtavatchai, Hidehiro Kondo, Ikuo Hirono, Sasimanas Unajak, Nontawith Areechon
AIMS: This study aimed to biotype Streptococcus agalactiae isolated from tilapia farms in Thailand based on molecular biotyping methods and to determine the correlation between the serotype and virulence of bacteria. In addition to a biotyping (serotyping) technique based on multiplex PCR of cps genes, in this study, we developed multiplex PCR typing of Group B streptococcus (GBS) virulence genes to examine 3 clusters of virulence genes and their correlation to the pathogenicity of S...
March 13, 2017: Journal of Applied Microbiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28293559/data-driven-risk-assessment-from-small-scale-epidemics-estimation-and-model-choice-for-spatio-temporal-data-with-application-to-a-classical-swine-fever-outbreak
#16
Kokouvi Gamado, Glenn Marion, Thibaud Porphyre
Livestock epidemics have the potential to give rise to significant economic, welfare, and social costs. Incursions of emerging and re-emerging pathogens may lead to small and repeated outbreaks. Analysis of the resulting data is statistically challenging but can inform disease preparedness reducing potential future losses. We present a framework for spatial risk assessment of disease incursions based on data from small localized historic outbreaks. We focus on between-farm spread of livestock pathogens and illustrate our methods by application to data on the small outbreak of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) that occurred in 2000 in East Anglia, UK...
2017: Frontiers in Veterinary Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28293273/mathematical-modelling-of-immune-parameters-in-the-evolution-of-severe-dengue
#17
M K Premaratne, S S N Perera, G N Malavige, Saroj Jayasinghe
Aims. Predicting the risk of severity at an early stage in an individual patient will be invaluable in preventing morbidity and mortality caused by dengue. We hypothesized that such predictions are possible by analyzing multiple parameters using mathematical modeling. Methodology. Data from 11 adult patients with dengue fever (DF) and 25 patients with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) were analyzed. Multivariate statistical analysis was performed to study the characteristics and interactions of parameters using dengue NS1 antigen levels, dengue IgG antibody levels, platelet counts, and lymphocyte counts...
2017: Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28284595/novel-poly-uridine-insertion-in-the-3-utr-and-e2-amino-acid-substitutions-in-a-low-virulent-classical-swine-fever-virus
#18
Liani Coronado, Matthias Liniger, Sara Muñoz-González, Alexander Postel, Lester Josue Pérez, Marta Pérez-Simó, Carmen Laura Perera, Maria Teresa Frías-Lepoureau, Rosa Rosell, Adam Grundhoff, Daniela Indenbirken, Malik Alawi, Nicole Fischer, Paul Becher, Nicolas Ruggli, Llilianne Ganges
In this study, we compared the virulence in weaner pigs of the Pinar del Rio isolate and the virulent Margarita strain. The latter caused the Cuban classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak of 1993. Our results showed that the Pinar del Rio virus isolated during an endemic phase is clearly of low virulence. We analysed the complete nucleotide sequence of the Pinar del Rio virus isolated after persistence in newborn piglets, as well as the genome sequence of the inoculum. The consensus genome sequence of the Pinar del Rio virus remained completely unchanged after 28days of persistent infection in swine...
March 2017: Veterinary Microbiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28284453/infection-of-exposed-patients-during-norovirus-outbreaks-are-there-predictive-parameters
#19
S Kampmeier, M H Pillukat, A Kossow, A Pettke, A Mellmann
BACKGROUND: Norovirus outbreak management comprises isolation and cohorting of patients. In this context, exposed patients are preferably cohorted separately from symptomatic and unexposed asymptomatic patients, since they potentially develop symptoms of norovirus gastroenteritis. Whether routinely examined clinical or laboratory parameters can help to predict occurrence of gastroenteritis symptoms in those patients has not yet been examined. AIM: To evaluate routinely examined clinical and laboratory parameters as predictive values for the development of norovirus symptoms in exposed patients during outbreaks...
February 20, 2017: Journal of Hospital Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28278206/warming-and-drought-combine-to-increase-pest-insect-fitness-on-urban-trees
#20
Adam G Dale, Steven D Frank
Urban habitats are characterized by impervious surfaces, which increase temperatures and reduce water availability to plants. The effects of these conditions on herbivorous insects are not well understood, but may provide insight into future conditions. Three primary hypotheses have been proposed to explain why multiple herbivorous arthropods are more abundant and damaging in cities, and support has been found for each. First, less complex vegetation may reduce biological control of pests. Second, plant stress can increase plant quality for pests...
2017: PloS One
keyword
keyword
69236
1
2
Fetch more papers »
Fetching more papers... Fetching...
Read by QxMD. Sign in or create an account to discover new knowledge that matter to you.
Remove bar
Read by QxMD icon Read
×

Search Tips

Use Boolean operators: AND/OR

diabetic AND foot
diabetes OR diabetic

Exclude a word using the 'minus' sign

Virchow -triad

Use Parentheses

water AND (cup OR glass)

Add an asterisk (*) at end of a word to include word stems

Neuro* will search for Neurology, Neuroscientist, Neurological, and so on

Use quotes to search for an exact phrase

"primary prevention of cancer"
(heart or cardiac or cardio*) AND arrest -"American Heart Association"