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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29150827/implications-of-tourist-macaque-interactions-for-disease-transmission
#1
Charlotte Carne, Stuart Semple, Ann MacLarnon, Bonaventura Majolo, Laëtitia Maréchal
During wildlife tourism, proximity or actual contact between people and animals may lead to a significant risk of anthropozoonotic disease transmission. In this paper, we use social network analysis, disease simulation modelling and data on animal health and behaviour to investigate such risks at a site in Morocco, where tourists come to see wild Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus). Measures of individual macaques' network centrality-an index of the strength and distribution of their social relationships and thus potentially their ability to spread disease-did not show clear and consistent relationships with their time spent in close proximity to, or rate of interacting with, tourists...
November 17, 2017: EcoHealth
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29146414/predicting-chronic-climate-driven-disturbances-and-their-mitigation
#2
REVIEW
Nate G McDowell, Sean T Michaletz, Katrina E Bennett, Kurt C Solander, Chonggang Xu, Reed M Maxwell, Craig D Allen, Richard S Middleton
Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances, including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire, are growing as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation...
November 13, 2017: Trends in Ecology & Evolution
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29145452/behavioral-climatic-and-environmental-risk-factors-for-zika-and-chikungunya-virus-infections-in-rio-de-janeiro-brazil-2015-16
#3
Trevon L Fuller, Guilherme Calvet, Camila Genaro Estevam, Jussara Rafael Angelo, Gbenga J Abiodun, Umme-Aiman Halai, Bianca De Santis, Patricia Carvalho Sequeira, Eliane Machado Araujo, Simone Alves Sampaio, Marco Cesar Lima de Mendonça, Allison Fabri, Rita Maria Ribeiro, Ryan Harrigan, Thomas B Smith, Claudia Raja Gabaglia, Patrícia Brasil, Ana Maria Bispo de Filippis, Karin Nielsen-Saines
The burden of arboviruses in the Americas is high and may result in long-term sequelae with infants disabled by Zika virus infection (ZIKV) and arthritis caused by infection with Chikungunya virus (CHIKV). We aimed to identify environmental drivers of arbovirus epidemics to predict where the next epidemics will occur and prioritize municipalities for vector control and eventual vaccination. We screened sera and urine samples (n = 10,459) from residents of 48 municipalities in the state of Rio de Janeiro for CHIKV, dengue virus (DENV), and ZIKV by molecular PCR diagnostics...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29145389/the-use-of-ambient-humidity-conditions-to-improve-influenza-forecast
#4
Jeffrey Shaman, Sasikiran Kandula, Wan Yang, Alicia Karspeck
Laboratory and epidemiological evidence indicate that ambient humidity modulates the survival and transmission of influenza. Here we explore whether the inclusion of humidity forcing in mathematical models describing influenza transmission improves the accuracy of forecasts generated with those models. We generate retrospective forecasts for 95 cities over 10 seasons in the United States and assess both forecast accuracy and error. Overall, we find that humidity forcing improves forecast performance (at 1-4 lead weeks, 3...
November 16, 2017: PLoS Computational Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29141743/prognostic-and-predictive-factors-of-ebola-virus-disease-outcome-in-elderly-people-during-the-2014-outbreak-in-guinea
#5
Mahamoud Sama Cherif, Shyam Prakash Dumre, Diénaba Kassé, Fatoumata Cherif, Facély Camara, Alpha Koné, Mandiou Diakité, Mohamed Cisse, Mamadou Pathé Diallo, Edouard Le Gall, Juntra Karbwang, Kenji Hirayama
Elderly people occupy a prominent position in African societies; however, their potential linkage to high case fatality rate (CFR) in Ebola virus disease (EVD) was often overlooked. We describe the predictive factors for EVD lethality in the elderly. A total of 2,004 adults and 309 elderly patients with confirmed EVD were included in the analysis. The median age (interquartile range) was 35 years (23-44) in adults and 65 years (60-70) in the elderly. The proportion of funeral participation was significantly higher in the elderly group than in the adult group...
October 30, 2017: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29141401/-simulation-of-an-outbreak-of-acinetobacter-baumannii-in-hospitals
#6
A Martín-Del Rey, M García-Moro, E García-Sánchez, E García-Merino, J E García-Sánchez
OBJECTIVE: Acinetobacter baumannii infections have increased over time becoming a significant issue. Consequently, those applications that allow to predict the evolution of an outbreak and the relevance of the different control methods, are very important. The design of mathematical models plays a central role in this topic. METHODS: Development of a deterministic mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations whose variables and parameters are defined upon the basis of knowledge of the epidemiology and characteristics of A...
November 13, 2017: Revista Española de Quimioterapia: Publicación Oficial de la Sociedad Española de Quimioterapia
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29138004/development-of-an-empirical-model-to-predict-malaria-outbreaks-based-on-monthly-case-reports-and-climate-variables-in-hefei-china-1990-2011
#7
J X Zhai, Q Lu, W B Hu, S L Tong, B Wang, F T Yang, Z W Xu, S P Xun, X H Shen, Zhiwei Xu
Malaria remains a significant public health concern in developing countries. Drivers of malaria transmission vary across different geographical regions. Climatic variables are major risk factor in seasonal and secular patterns of P. vivax malaria transmission along Anhui province. The study aims to forecast malaria outbreaks using empirical model developed in Hefei, China. Data on the monthly numbers of notified malaria cases and climatic factors were obtained for the period of January 1st 1990 to December 31st 2011 from the Hefei CDC and Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences, respectively...
November 11, 2017: Acta Tropica
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29137627/prevalence-of-current-patterns-and-predictive-trends-of-multidrug-resistant-salmonella-typhi-in-sudan
#8
Ayman A Elshayeb, Abdelazim A Ahmed, Marmar A El Siddig, Adil A El Hussien
BACKGROUND: Enteric fever has persistence of great impact in Sudanese public health especially during rainy season when the causative agent Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi possesses pan endemic patterns in most regions of Sudan - Khartoum. OBJECTIVES: The present study aims to assess the recent state of antibiotics susceptibility of Salmonella Typhi with special concern to multidrug resistance strains and predict the emergence of new resistant patterns and outbreaks...
November 14, 2017: Annals of Clinical Microbiology and Antimicrobials
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29134435/plant-phenology-supports-the-multi-emergence-hypothesis-for-ebola-spillover-events
#9
Katharina C Wollenberg Valero, Raphael D Isokpehi, Noah E Douglas, Seenith Sivasundaram, Brianna Johnson, Kiara Wootson, Ayana McGill
Ebola virus disease outbreaks in animals (including humans and great apes) start with sporadic host switches from unknown reservoir species. The factors leading to such spillover events are little explored. Filoviridae viruses have a wide range of natural hosts and are unstable once outside hosts. Spillover events, which involve the physical transfer of viral particles across species, could therefore be directly promoted by conditions of host ecology and environment. In this report, we outline a proof of concept that temporal fluctuations of a set of ecological and environmental variables describing the dynamics of the host ecosystem are able to predict such events of Ebola virus spillover to humans and animals...
November 13, 2017: EcoHealth
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29126393/genomic-characterisation-of-clinical-and-environmental-pseudomonas-putida-group-strains-and-determination-of-their-role-in-the-transfer-of-antimicrobial-resistance-genes-to-pseudomonas-aeruginosa
#10
Silke Peter, Philipp Oberhettinger, Leonard Schuele, Ariane Dinkelacker, Wichard Vogel, Daniela Dörfel, Daniela Bezdan, Stephan Ossowski, Matthias Marschal, Jan Liese, Matthias Willmann
BACKGROUND: Pseudomonas putida is a Gram-negative, non-fermenting bacterium frequently encountered in various environmental niches. P. putida rarely causes disease in humans, though serious infections and outbreaks have been reported from time to time. Some have suggested that P. putida functions as an exchange platform for antibiotic resistance genes (ARG), and thus represents a serious concern in the spread of ARGs to more pathogenic organisms within a hospital. Though poorly understood, the frequency of ARG exchange between P...
November 10, 2017: BMC Genomics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29125713/outbreak-of-invasive-aspergillosis-in-heart-transplant-recipients-the-role-of-screening-computed-tomography-scans-in-asymptomatic-patients-and-universal-antifungal-prophylaxis
#11
Dima Kabbani, Livia Goldraich, Heather Ross, Coleman Rotstein, Shahid Husain
BACKGROUND: Delays in diagnosing invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IA), a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among heart transplant recipients (HTRs), may impact on successful treatment. The appropriate screening strategy for IA in these patients remains undefined, particularly in the setting of nosocomial outbreaks. We describe our experience employing chest computed tomography (CT) scans as a screening method for IA. In addition, we comment on antimicrobial prophylaxis in HTRs in the setting of an outbreak...
November 10, 2017: Transplant Infectious Disease: An Official Journal of the Transplantation Society
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29116224/comparison-of-transcriptomic-platforms-for-analysis-of-whole-blood-from-ebola-infected-cynomolgus-macaques
#12
Emily Speranza, Louis A Altamura, Kirsten Kulcsar, Sandra L Bixler, Cynthia A Rossi, Randal J Schoepp, Elyse Nagle, William Aguilar, Christina E Douglas, Korey L Delp, Timothy D Minogue, Gustavo Palacios, Arthur J Goff, John H Connor
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a serious illness with mortality rates of 20-90% in various outbreaks. EVD is characterized by robust virus replication and strong host inflammatory response. Analyzing host immune responses has increasingly involved multimodal approaches including transcriptomics to profile gene expression. We studied cynomolgus macaques exposed to Ebola virus Makona via different routes with the intent of comparing RNA-Seq to a NanoString nCounter codeset targeting 769 non-human primate (NHP) genes...
November 7, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29109702/genomic-comparison-among-lethal-invasive-strains-of-streptococcus-pyogenes-serotype-m1
#13
Gabriel R Fernandes, Aulus E A D Barbosa, Renan N Almeida, Fabíola F Dos S Castro, Marina de C P da Ponte, Celio Faria-Junior, Fernanda M P Müller, Antônio A B Viana, Dario Grattapaglia, Octavio L Franco, Sérgio A Alencar, Simoni C Dias
Streptococcus pyogenes, also known as group A Streptococcus (GAS), is a human pathogen that causes diverse human diseases including streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS). A GAS outbreak occurred in Brasilia, Brazil, during the second half of the year 2011, causing 26 deaths. Whole genome sequencing was performed using Illumina platform. The sequences were assembled and genes were predicted for comparative analysis with emm type 1 strains: MGAS5005 and M1 GAS. Genomics comparison revealed one of the invasive strains that differ from others isolates and from emm 1 reference genomes...
2017: Frontiers in Microbiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29108952/mycobacterium-tuberculosis-and-whole-genome-sequencing-how-close-are-we-to-unleash-its-full-potential
#14
REVIEW
G Satta, M Lipman, G P Smith, C Arnold, O M Kon, T D McHugh
BACKGROUND: Nearly two decades after the completion of the genome sequence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), and with the advent of next generation sequencing technologies (NGS), whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has been applied to a wide range of clinical scenarios. Starting in 2017, England is the first country in the world to pioneer its use on a national scale for the diagnosis of tuberculosis, detection of drug resistance and typing of MTB. AIMS: This narrative review critically analyses the current applications of WGS for MTB and explains how close we are to realizing its full potential as a diagnostic, epidemiologic and research tool...
November 3, 2017: Clinical Microbiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29107987/individual-versus-superensemble-forecasts-of-seasonal-influenza-outbreaks-in-the-united-states
#15
Teresa K Yamana, Sasikiran Kandula, Jeffrey Shaman
Recent research has produced a number of methods for forecasting seasonal influenza outbreaks. However, differences among the predicted outcomes of competing forecast methods can limit their use in decision-making. Here, we present a method for reconciling these differences using Bayesian model averaging. We generated retrospective forecasts of peak timing, peak incidence, and total incidence for seasonal influenza outbreaks in 48 states and 95 cities using 21 distinct forecast methods, and combined these individual forecasts to create weighted-average superensemble forecasts...
November 2017: PLoS Computational Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29098119/process-review-for-development-of-quantitative-risk-analyses-for-transboundary-animal-disease-to-pathogen-free-territories
#16
REVIEW
Jonathan Miller, Ken Burton, Joe Fund, Adrian Self
Outbreaks of transboundary animal diseases (TADs) have the potential to cause significant detriment to animal, human, and environmental health; severe economic implications; and national security. Challenges concerning data sharing, model development, decision support, and disease emergence science have recently been promoted. These challenges and recommendations have been recognized and advocated in the disciplines intersecting with outbreak prediction and forecast modeling regarding infectious diseases. To advance the effective application of computation and risk communication, analytical products ought to follow a collaboratively agreed common plan for implementation...
2017: BioResearch Open Access
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29094318/discovery-of-t-cell-driven-subunit-vaccines-from-zika-virus-genome-an-immunoinformatics-approach
#17
Dibyabhaba Pradhan, Monika Yadav, Rashi Verma, Noor Saba Khan, Lingaraja Jena, Arun Kumar Jain
The recent outbreaks of Zika virus and the absence of a specific therapy have necessitated to identify T-cell-stimulating antigenic peptides as potential subunit vaccine candidates. The translated ssRNA (+) genome of Zika virus was explored in EMBOSS antigenic and VaxiJen to predict 63 peptides as potential antigens. Three MHC-II binding peptide prediction tools, viz. NetMHCIIpan, PREDIVAC and immune epitope database (IEDB) were employed in consensus on 63 antigenic peptides to propose 14 T-helper cell epitopes...
November 1, 2017: Interdisciplinary Sciences, Computational Life Sciences
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29093317/rapid-and-accurate-diagnosis-based-on-real-time-pcr-cycle-threshold-value-for-the-identification-of-campylobacter-jejuni-asta-gene-positive-escherichia-coli-and-eae-gene-positive-e-coli
#18
Jun Kawase, Hiroshi Asakura, Morito Kurosaki, Hitoshi Oshiro, Yoshiki Etoh, Tetsuya Ikeda, Masanori Watahiki, Mitsuhiro Kameyama, Fumi Hayashi, Yuta Kawakami, Yoshiko Murakami, Yoshie Tsunomori
  We previously developed a multiplex real-time PCR assay (Rapid Foodborne Bacterial Screening 24 ver.5, RFBS24 ver.5) for simultaneous detection of 24 foodborne bacterial targets. Here, to overcome the discrepancy of the RFBS24 ver.5 and bacterial culture method (BC) results, we analyzed 246 human clinical samples from 49 gastroenteritis outbreaks by the RFBS24 ver.5 and evaluated the correlation between cycle threshold value (CT) of RFBS24 ver.5 and the BC results. The results showed that the RFBS24 ver...
October 31, 2017: Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29092812/combining-participatory-influenza-surveillance-with-modeling-and-forecasting-three-alternative-approaches
#19
John S Brownstein, Shuyu Chu, Achla Marathe, Madhav V Marathe, Andre T Nguyen, Daniela Paolotti, Nicola Perra, Daniela Perrotta, Mauricio Santillana, Samarth Swarup, Michele Tizzoni, Alessandro Vespignani, Anil Kumar S Vullikanti, Mandy L Wilson, Qian Zhang
BACKGROUND: Influenza outbreaks affect millions of people every year and its surveillance is usually carried out in developed countries through a network of sentinel doctors who report the weekly number of Influenza-like Illness cases observed among the visited patients. Monitoring and forecasting the evolution of these outbreaks supports decision makers in designing effective interventions and allocating resources to mitigate their impact. OBJECTIVE: Describe the existing participatory surveillance approaches that have been used for modeling and forecasting of the seasonal influenza epidemic, and how they can help strengthen real-time epidemic science and provide a more rigorous understanding of epidemic conditions...
November 1, 2017: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29084216/a-mechanistic-spatio-temporal-framework-for-modelling-individual-to-individual-transmission-with-an-application-to-the-2014-2015-west-africa-ebola-outbreak
#20
Max S Y Lau, Gavin J Gibson, Hola Adrakey, Amanda McClelland, Steven Riley, Jon Zelner, George Streftaris, Sebastian Funk, Jessica Metcalf, Benjamin D Dalziel, Bryan T Grenfell
In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level...
October 2017: PLoS Computational Biology
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