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Outbreak prediction

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28821546/a-supervised-statistical-learning-approach-for-accurate-legionella-pneumophila-source-attribution-during-outbreaks
#1
Andrew H Buultjens, Kyra Y L Chua, Sarah L Baines, Jason Kwong, Wei Gao, Zoe Cutcher, Stuart Adcock, Susan Ballard, Mark B Schultz, Takehiro Tomita, Nela Subasinghe, Glen P Carter, Sacha J Pidot, Lucinda Franklin, Torsten Seemann, Anders Gonçalves Da Silva, Benjamin P Howden, Timothy P Stinear
Public health agencies are increasingly relying on genomics during Legionnaires' disease investigations. However, the causative bacterium (Legionella pneumophila) has an unusual population structure with extreme temporal and spatial genome sequence conservation. Furthermore, Legionnaires' disease outbreaks can be caused by multiple L. pneumophila genotypes in a single source. These factors can confound cluster identification using standard phylogenomic methods. Here, we show that a statistical learning approach based onL...
August 18, 2017: Applied and Environmental Microbiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28818331/molecular-epidemiology-of-epizootic-haematopoietic-necrosis-virus-ehnv
#2
Paul M Hick, Kuttichantran Subramaniam, Patrick M Thompson, Thomas B Waltzek, Joy A Becker, Richard J Whittington
Low genetic diversity of Epizootic haematopoietic necrosis virus (EHNV) was determined for the complete genome of 16 isolates spanning the natural range of hosts, geography and time since the first outbreaks of disease. Genomes ranged from 125,591-127,487 nucleotides with 97.47% pairwise identity and 106-109 genes. All isolates shared 101 core genes with 121 potential genes predicted within the pan-genome of this collection. There was high conservation within 90,181 nucleotides of the core genes with isolates separated by average genetic distance of 3...
August 14, 2017: Virology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28816650/evidence-for-more-cost-effective-surveillance-options-for-bovine-spongiform-encephalopathy-bse-and-scrapie-in-great-britain
#3
Ben A Wall, Mark E Arnold, Devi Radia, Will Gilbert, Angel Ortiz-Pelaez, Katharina Dc Stärk, Ed Van Klink, Javier Guitian
Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are an important public health concern. Since the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the 1980s and its link with human Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, active surveillance has been a key element of the European Union's TSE control strategy. Success of this strategy means that now, very few cases are detected compared with the number of animals tested. Refining surveillance strategies would enable resources to be redirected towards other public health priorities...
August 10, 2017: Euro Surveillance: Bulletin Européen sur les Maladies Transmissibles, European Communicable Disease Bulletin
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28811753/characterization-of-the-rosellinia-necatrix-transcriptome-and-genes-related-to-pathogenesis-by-single-molecule-mrna-sequencing
#4
Hyeongmin Kim, Seung Jae Lee, Ick-Hyun Jo, Jinsu Lee, Wonsil Bae, Hyemin Kim, Kyungho Won, Tae Kyung Hyun, Hojin Ryu
White root rot disease, caused by the pathogen Rosellinia necatrix, is one of the world's most devastating plant fungal diseases and affects several commercially important species of fruit trees and crops. Recent global outbreaks of R. necatrix and advances in molecular techniques have both increased interest in this pathogen. However, the lack of information regarding the genomic structure and transcriptome of R. necatrix has been a barrier to the progress of functional genomic research and the control of this harmful pathogen...
August 2017: Plant Pathology Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28810081/a-risk-analysis-approach-to-prioritizing-epidemics-ebola-virus-disease-in-west-africa-as-a-case-study
#5
Whenayon Simeon Ajisegiri, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, C Raina MacIntyre
The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed...
August 15, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28805915/selection-on-resilience-improves-disease-resistance-and-tolerance-to-infections
#6
H A Mulder, H Rashidi
Response to infection in animals has 2 main mechanisms: resistance (ability to control pathogen burden) and tolerance (ability to maintain performance given the pathogen burden). Selection on disease resistance and tolerance to infections seems a promising avenue to increase productivity of animals in the presence of disease infections, but it is hampered by a lack of records of pathogen burden of infected animals. Selection on resilience (ability to maintain performance regardless of pathogen burden) may, therefore, be an alternative pragmatic approach, because it does not need records of pathogen burden...
August 2017: Journal of Animal Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28800246/risk-of-salmonellosis-from-chicken-parts-prepared-from-whole-chickens-sold-in-flow-pack-wrappers-and-subjected-to-temperature-abuse
#7
T P Oscar
The flow pack wrapper is a popular packaging choice for retail sale of whole chickens. However, it may provide a favorable environment for growth and spread of Salmonella within the package, leading to an outbreak of salmonellosis. To investigate this possibility, a process risk model was developed that predicted the risk of salmonellosis from chicken parts prepared from whole chickens sold in flow pack wrappers and subjected to proper storage (6 h at 4°C) or improper storage (72 h at 15°C) before preparation...
September 2017: Journal of Food Protection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28791298/evaluation-of-strategies-to-control-a-potential-outbreak-of-foot-and-mouth-disease-in-sweden
#8
Fernanda C Dórea, Maria Nöremark, Stefan Widgren, Jenny Frössling, Anette Boklund, Tariq Halasa, Karl Ståhl
To minimize the potential consequences of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Europe, European Union (EU) member states are required to present a contingency plan. This study used a simulation model to study potential outbreak scenarios in Sweden and evaluate the best control strategies. The model was informed by the Swedish livestock structure using herd information from cattle, pig, and small ruminant holdings in the country. The contact structure was based on animal movement data and studies investigating the movements between farms of veterinarians, service trucks, and other farm visitors...
2017: Frontiers in Veterinary Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28790023/identifying-potential-norovirus-epidemics-in-china-via-internet-surveillance
#9
Kui Liu, Sichao Huang, Zi-Ping Miao, Bin Chen, Tao Jiang, Gaofeng Cai, Zhenggang Jiang, Yongdi Chen, Zhengting Wang, Hua Gu, Chengliang Chai, Jianmin Jiang
BACKGROUND: Norovirus is a common virus that causes acute gastroenteritis worldwide, but a monitoring system for norovirus is unavailable in China. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify norovirus epidemics through Internet surveillance and construct an appropriate model to predict potential norovirus infections. METHODS: The norovirus-related data of a selected outbreak in Jiaxing Municipality, Zhejiang Province of China, in 2014 were collected from immediate epidemiological investigation, and the Internet search volume, as indicated by the Baidu Index, was acquired from the Baidu search engine...
August 8, 2017: Journal of Medical Internet Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28782809/overview-of-infectious-salmon-anaemia-virus-isav-in-atlantic-canada-and-first-report-of-an-isav-north-american-hpr0-subtype
#10
N Gagné, F LeBlanc
The infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) is an important viral disease of farmed Atlantic salmon that has caused considerable financial losses for salmon farmers around the world, including Atlantic Canada. It is listed as a notifiable disease by the World Organization for Animal Health, and to this day, culling of infected cages or farms remains the current practice in many countries to mitigate the spread of the virus. In Atlantic Canada, ISAV was first detected in 1996 and continues to be detected. While some outbreaks seemed to have arisen from isolated infections of unknown source, others were local clusters resulting from horizontal spread of infection...
August 7, 2017: Journal of Fish Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28782647/host-factors-are-more-important-in-predicting-recurrent-clostridium-difficile-infection-than-ribotype-and-use-of-antibiotics
#11
Yvette H van Beurden, Shabir Nezami, Chris J J Mulder, Christina M J E Vandenbroucke-Grauls
OBJECTIVE: A frequent complication of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is recurrent disease. The aim of this study was to determine whether early recurrence risk was higher after infection with ribotype 027 (outbreak strain) compared to infection with endemic strain types of C. difficile METHODS: Consecutive patients diagnosed with CDI between May 2013 and March 2014 were included (outbreak strain, and non-outbreak strains). Patients who developed recurrent CDI within 30 days after completion of CDI treatment, were compared to patients without a recurrence...
August 3, 2017: Clinical Microbiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28781938/foodborne-infectious-diseases-mediated-by-inappropriate-infection-control-in-food-service-businesses-and-relevant-countermeasures-in-korea
#12
REVIEW
Jong Myong Park, Young-Hyun You, Hyun-Min Cho, Ji Won Hong, Sa-Youl Ghim
OBJECTIVES: The objective of this review is to propose an appropriate course of action for improving the guidelines followed by food handlers for control of infection. For this purpose, previous epidemiological reports related to acute gastroenteritis in food service businesses mediated by food handlers were intensively analyzed. METHODS: Relevant studies were identified in international databases. We selected eligible papers reporting foodborne infectious disease outbreaks...
June 2017: Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28780908/temporal-and-spatial-distribution-characteristics-in-the-natural-plague-foci-of-chinese-mongolian-gerbils-based-on-spatial-autocorrelation
#13
Hai-Wen Du, Yong Wang, Da-Fang Zhuang, Xiao-San Jiang
BACKGROUND: The nest flea index of Meriones unguiculatus is a critical indicator for the prevention and control of plague, which can be used not only to detect the spatial and temporal distributions of Meriones unguiculatus, but also to reveal its cluster rule. This research detected the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the plague natural foci of Mongolian gerbils by body flea index from 2005 to 2014, in order to predict plague outbreaks. METHODS: Global spatial autocorrelation was used to describe the entire spatial distribution pattern of the body flea index in the natural plague foci of typical Chinese Mongolian gerbils...
August 7, 2017: Infectious Diseases of Poverty
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28776351/the-utility-of-preliminary-patient-evaluation-in-a-febrile-respiratory-infectious-disease-unit-outside-the-emergency-department
#14
Jun Sik Kang, Byung Woo Jhun, Hee Yoon, Seong Mi Lim, Eunsil Ko, Joo Hyun Park, Sung Yeon Hwang, Se Uk Lee, Tae Rim Lee, Won Chul Cha, Tae Gun Shin, Min Seob Sim, Ik Joon Jo
A febrile respiratory infectious disease unit (FRIDU) with a negative pressure ventilation system was constructed outside the emergency department (ED) of the Samsung Medical Center in 2015, to screen for patients with contagious diseases requiring isolation. We evaluated the utility of the FRIDU during 1 year of operation. We analyzed 1,562 patients who were hospitalized after FRIDU screening between August 2015 and July 2016. The level of isolation recommended during their screening at the FRIDU was compared with the level deemed appropriate given their final diagnosis...
September 2017: Journal of Korean Medical Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28775299/construction-and-evaluation-of-two-computational-models-for-predicting-the-incidence-of-influenza-in-nagasaki-prefecture-japan
#15
Fei He, Zhi-Jian Hu, Wen-Chang Zhang, Lin Cai, Guo-Xi Cai, Kiyoshi Aoyagi
It remains challenging to forecast local, seasonal outbreaks of influenza. The goal of this study was to construct a computational model for predicting influenza incidence. We built two computational models including an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and a hybrid model integrating ARDL with a Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), to assess meteorological factors associated with temporal trends in influenza incidence. The modelling and forecasting performance of these two models were compared using observations collected between 2006 and 2015 in Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan...
August 3, 2017: Scientific Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28771146/a-method-for-incorporating-a-time-dose-response-model-into-a-giardia-lamblia-outbreak
#16
Bidya Prasad, Michael O Ryan, Charles N Haas
Experimental time-to-infection data is a useful, but often underutilized, material for examining the mechanics of in vivo pathogen growth. In this paper, the authors attempt to incorporate a time-dose-response (TDR) equation into a model which predicts the number of ill persons per day in a Giardia lamblia epidemic using data collected from a Pittsfield, Massachusetts outbreak. To this end, dose-response and TDR models were generated for Giardia exposure to beaver and human volunteers, and a maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to ensure that the models provided acceptable fits...
August 2017: Journal of Water and Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28770842/persistent-anthrax-as-a-major-driver-of-wildlife-mortality-in-a-tropical-rainforest
#17
Constanze Hoffmann, Fee Zimmermann, Roman Biek, Hjalmar Kuehl, Kathrin Nowak, Roger Mundry, Anthony Agbor, Samuel Angedakin, Mimi Arandjelovic, Anja Blankenburg, Gregory Brazolla, Katherine Corogenes, Emmanuel Couacy-Hymann, Tobias Deschner, Paula Dieguez, Karsten Dierks, Ariane Düx, Susann Dupke, Henk Eshuis, Pierre Formenty, Yisa Ginath Yuh, Annemarie Goedmakers, Jan F Gogarten, Anne-Céline Granjon, Scott McGraw, Roland Grunow, John Hart, Sorrel Jones, Jessica Junker, John Kiang, Kevin Langergraber, Juan Lapuente, Kevin Lee, Siv Aina Leendertz, Floraine Léguillon, Vera Leinert, Therese Löhrich, Sergio Marrocoli, Kerstin Mätz-Rensing, Amelia Meier, Kevin Merkel, Sonja Metzger, Mizuki Murai, Svenja Niedorf, Hélène De Nys, Andreas Sachse, Joost van Schijndel, Ulla Thiesen, Els Ton, Doris Wu, Lothar H Wieler, Christophe Boesch, Silke R Klee, Roman M Wittig, Sébastien Calvignac-Spencer, Fabian H Leendertz
Anthrax is a globally important animal disease and zoonosis. Despite this, our current knowledge of anthrax ecology is largely limited to arid ecosystems, where outbreaks are most commonly reported. Here we show that the dynamics of an anthrax-causing agent, Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis, in a tropical rainforest have severe consequences for local wildlife communities. Using data and samples collected over three decades, we show that rainforest anthrax is a persistent and widespread cause of death for a broad range of mammalian hosts...
August 2, 2017: Nature
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28770072/genetic-demography-at-the-leading-edge-of-the-distribution-of-a-rabies-virus-vector
#18
Antoinette J Piaggio, Amy L Russell, Ignacio A Osorio, Alejandro Jiménez Ramírez, Justin W Fischer, Jennifer L Neuwald, Annie E Tibbels, Luis Lecuona, Gary F McCracken
The common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, ranges from South America into northern Mexico in North America. This sanguivorous species of bat feeds primarily on medium to large-sized mammals and is known to rely on livestock as primary prey. Each year, there are hotspot areas of D. rotundus-specific rabies virus outbreaks that lead to the deaths of livestock and economic losses. Based on incidental captures in our study area, which is an area of high cattle mortality from D. rotundus transmitted rabies, it appears that D...
July 2017: Ecology and Evolution
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28768106/development-of-high-capacity-enterosorbents-for-aflatoxin-b1-and-other-hazardous-chemicals
#19
Meichen Wang, Cody R Maki, Youjun Deng, Yanan Tian, Timothy D Phillips
Previously, a calcium montmorillonite clay (NovaSil) included in diet of animals has been shown to bind aflatoxin B1 (AfB1) and reduce the symptoms of aflatoxicosis. To investigate and improve the capacity and efficacy of clay-based materials as aflatoxin sorbents, we developed and tested calcium and sodium montmorillonite clays amended with nutrients including L-carnitine and choline. Also we determined the sorption of AfB1 by isothermal analysis and tested the ability of these amended sorbents to protect adult hydra from AfB1 toxicity...
August 2, 2017: Chemical Research in Toxicology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28765371/zika-plasma-viral-dynamics-in-nonhuman-primates-provides-insights-into-early-infection-and-antiviral-strategies
#20
Katharine Best, Jeremie Guedj, Vincent Madelain, Xavier de Lamballerie, So-Yon Lim, Christa E Osuna, James B Whitney, Alan S Perelson
The recent outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) has been associated with fetal abnormalities and neurological complications, prompting global concern. Here we present a mathematical analysis of the within-host dynamics of plasma ZIKV burden in a nonhuman primate model, allowing for characterization of the growth and clearance of ZIKV within individual macaques. We estimate that the eclipse phase for ZIKV, the time between cell infection and viral production, is most likely short (∼4 h), the median within-host basic reproductive number R0 is 10...
August 15, 2017: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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