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Outbreak prediction

Maxime Cailleret, Steven Jansen, Elisabeth M R Robert, Lucía Desoto, Tuomas Aakala, Joseph A Antos, Barbara Beikircher, Christof Bigler, Harald Bugmann, Marco Caccianiga, Vojtěch Čada, J Julio Camarero, Paolo Cherubini, Hervé Cochard, Marie R Coyea, Katarina Čufar, Adrian J Das, Hendrik Davi, Sylvain Delzon, Michael Dorman, Guillermo Gea-Izquierdo, Sten Gillner, Laurel J Haavik, Henrik Hartmann, Ana-Maria Hereş, Kevin R Hultine, Pavel Janda, Jeffrey M Kane, Vyacheslav I Kharuk, Thomas Kitzberger, Tamir Klein, Koen Kramer, Frederic Lens, Tom Levanic, Juan Carlos Linares Calderon, Francisco Lloret, Raquel Lobo-Do-Vale, Fabio Lombardi, Rosana López Rodríguez, Harri Mäkinen, Stefan Mayr, Ilona Mészáros, Juha M Metsaranta, Francesco Minunno, Walter Oberhuber, Andreas Papadopoulos, Mikko Peltoniemi, Any Mary Petritan, Brigitte Rohner, Gabriel Sangüesa-Barreda, Dimitrios Sarris, Jeremy M Smith, Amanda B Stan, Frank Sterck, Dejan B Stojanović, Maria Laura Suarez, Miroslav Svoboda, Roberto Tognetti, José M Torres-Ruiz, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Ricardo Villalba, Floor Vodde, Alana R Westwood, Peter H Wyckoff, Nikolay Zafirov, Jordi Martínez-Vilalta
Tree mortality is a key factor influencing forest functions and dynamics, but our understanding of the mechanisms leading to mortality and the associated changes in tree growth rates are still limited. We compiled a new pan-continental tree-ring width database from sites where both dead and living trees were sampled (2,970 dead and 4,224 living trees from 190 sites, including 36 species), and compared early and recent growth rates between trees that died and those that survived a given mortality event. We observed a decrease in radial growth before death in ca...
October 19, 2016: Global Change Biology
Nathan D Grubaugh, Kristian G Andersen
The epidemics of Ebola virus in West Africa and Zika virus in America highlight how viruses can explosively emerge into new territories. These epidemics also exposed how unprepared we are to handle infectious disease emergencies. This is also true when we consider hypothesized new clinical features of infection, such as the associations between Zika virus infection and severe neurological disease, including microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. On the surface, these pathologies appear to be new features of Zika virus infection, however, causal relationships have not yet been established...
2016: F1000Research
Sean Ekins, John Liebler, Bruno J Neves, Warren G Lewis, Megan Coffee, Rachelle Bienstock, Christopher Southan, Carolina H Andrade
The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a flavivirus of the family Flaviviridae, which is similar to dengue virus, yellow fever and West Nile virus. Recent outbreaks in South America, Latin America, the Caribbean and in particular Brazil have led to concern for the spread of the disease and potential to cause Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly. Although ZIKV has been known of for over 60 years there is very little in the way of knowledge of the virus with few publications and no crystal structures. No antivirals have been tested against it either in vitro or in vivo...
2016: F1000Research
Amanda A Koepke, Ira M Longini, M Elizabeth Halloran, Jon Wakefield, Vladimir N Minin
Despite seasonal cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh, little is known about the relationship between environmental conditions and cholera cases. We seek to develop a predictive model for cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh based on environmental predictors. To do this, we estimate the contribution of environmental variables, such as water depth and water temperature, to cholera outbreaks in the context of a disease transmission model. We implement a method which simultaneously accounts for disease dynamics and environmental variables in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model...
June 2016: Annals of Applied Statistics
Antonia E Dalziel, Steven Delean, Sarah Heinrich, Phillip Cassey
Avian influenza viruses are able to persist in the environment, in-between the transmission of the virus among its natural hosts. Quantifying the environmental factors that affect the persistence of avian influenza virus is important for influencing our ability to predict future outbreaks and target surveillance and control methods. We conducted a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis of the environmental factors that affect the decay of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) in water. Abiotic factors affecting the persistence of LPAIV have been investigated for nearly 40 years, yet published data was produced by only 26 quantitative studies...
2016: PloS One
Teresa K Yamana, Sasikiran Kandula, Jeffrey Shaman
In recent years, a number of systems capable of predicting future infectious disease incidence have been developed. As more of these systems are operationalized, it is important that the forecasts generated by these different approaches be formally reconciled so that individual forecast error and bias are reduced. Here we present a first example of such multi-system, or superensemble, forecast. We develop three distinct systems for predicting dengue, which are applied retrospectively to forecast outbreak characteristics in San Juan, Puerto Rico...
October 2016: Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Linda Valeri, Oscar Patterson-Lomba, Yared Gurmu, Akweley Ablorh, Jennifer Bobb, F William Townes, Guy Harling
BACKGROUND: The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered. METHODS: To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys...
2016: PloS One
Olivier Fernandez, Maria Urrutia, Stéphane Bernillon, Catherine Giauffret, François Tardieu, Jacques Le Gouis, Nicolas Langlade, Alain Charcosset, Annick Moing, Yves Gibon
BACKGROUND: In the last decade, metabolomics has emerged as a powerful diagnostic and predictive tool in many branches of science. Researchers in microbes, animal, food, medical and plant science have generated a large number of targeted or non-targeted metabolic profiles by using a vast array of analytical methods (GC-MS, LC-MS, (1)H-NMR….). Comprehensive analysis of such profiles using adapted statistical methods and modeling has opened up the possibility of using single or combinations of metabolites as markers...
2016: Metabolomics: Official Journal of the Metabolomic Society
Tianmu Chen, Haogao Gu, Ross Ka-Kit Leung, Ruchun Liu, Qiuping Chen, Ying Wu, Yaman Li
BACKGROUND: In resource-limited settings where laboratory capacity is limited and response strategy is non-specific, delayed or inappropriate intervention against outbreaks of Norovirus (NoV) are common. Here we report interventions of two norovirus outbreaks, which highlight the importance of evidence-based modeling and assessment to identify infection sources and formulate effective response strategies. METHODS: Spatiotemporal scanning, mathematical and random walk modeling predicted the modes of transmission in the two incidents, which were supported by laboratory results and intervention outcomes...
October 12, 2016: BMC Public Health
Junpei Yamashita, Takuya Sato, Katsutoshi Watanabe
For parasites with complex life cycles, the ecological traits determining host competence and seasonal changes in infection in natural habitats are often unclear, which makes it difficult to predict infection dynamics, including disease outbreaks. Hairworms (Phylum: Nematomorpha) require both aquatic and terrestrial hosts to complete their life cycle. Although hairworm host competencies have been tested in laboratory experiments, knowledge of the paratenic hosts (aquatic insect larvae) in their natural habitats is limited...
October 10, 2016: Journal of Parasitology
Simon Carpenter
In the 10 years, since the last international meeting on Bluetongue virus (BTV) and related Orbiviruses in Sicily, there have been huge advances in explorations of the genetics and genomics of Culicoides, culminating in the imminent release of the rst full genome de novo assembly for the genus. In parallel, mathematical models used to predict Culicoides adult distribution, seasonality, and dispersal have also increased in sophistication, re ecting advances in available computational power and expertise. While these advances have focused upon the outbreaks of BTV in Europe, there is an opportunity to extend these techniques to other regions as part of global studies of the genus...
September 30, 2016: Veterinaria Italiana
Keith Burghardt, Christopher Verzijl, Junming Huang, Matthew Ingram, Binyang Song, Marie-Pierre Hasne
The Ebola virus in West Africa has infected almost 30,000 and killed over 11,000 people. Recent models of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have often made assumptions about how the disease spreads, such as uniform transmissibility and homogeneous mixing within a population. In this paper, we test whether these assumptions are necessarily correct, and offer simple solutions that may improve disease model accuracy. First, we use data and models of West African migration to show that EVD does not homogeneously mix, but spreads in a predictable manner...
October 10, 2016: Scientific Reports
C Mubamba, G Ramsay, C Abolnik, G Dautu, B Gummow
Newcastle Disease (ND) is a highly infectious disease of poultry that seriously impacts on food security and livelihoods of livestock farmers and communities in tropical regions of the world. ND is a constant problem in the eastern province of Zambia which has more than 740 000 rural poultry. Very few studies give a situational analysis of the disease that can be used for disease control planning in the region. With this background in mind, a retrospective epidemiological study was conducted using Newcastle Disease data submitted to the eastern province headquarters for the period from 1989 to 2014...
October 1, 2016: Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Kimberley S M Benschop, Janette C Rahamat-Langendoen, Harrie G A M van der Avoort, Eric C J Claas, Suzan D Pas, Rob Schuurman, Jaco J Verweij, Katja C Wolthers, Hubert G M Niesters, Marion P G Koopmans
VIRO-TypeNed is a collaborative molecular surveillance platform facilitated through a web-based database. Genetic data in combination with epidemiological, clinical and patient data are shared between clinical and public health laboratories, as part of the surveillance underpinning poliovirus eradication. We analysed the combination of data submitted from 2010 to 2014 to understand circulation patterns of non-polio enteroviruses (NPEV) of public health relevance. Two epidemiological patterns were observed based on VIRO-TypeNed data and classical surveillance data dating back to 1996: (i) endemic cyclic, characterised by predictable upsurges/outbreaks every two to four years, and (ii) epidemic, where rare virus types caused upsurges/outbreaks...
September 29, 2016: Euro Surveillance: Bulletin Européen sur les Maladies Transmissibles, European Communicable Disease Bulletin
Julia Reis, Jeffrey Shaman
Recent studies have shown that systems combining mathematical modeling and Bayesian inference methods can be used to generate real-time forecasts of future infectious disease incidence. Here we develop such a system to study and forecast respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). RSV is the most common cause of acute lower respiratory infection and bronchiolitis. Advanced warning of the epidemic timing and volume of RSV patient surges has the potential to reduce well-documented delays of treatment in emergency departments...
October 2016: PLoS Computational Biology
Gerardo Chowell, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Seyed M Moghadas
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms...
October 2016: Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Virginia Ahalt, Nilay Tanık Argon, Serhan Ziya, Jeff Strickler, Abhi Mehrotra
According to American College of Emergency Physicians, emergency department (ED) crowding occurs when the identified need for emergency services exceeds available resources for patient care in the ED, hospital, or both. ED crowding is a widely reported problem and several crowding scores are proposed to quantify crowding using hospital and patient data as inputs for assisting healthcare professionals in anticipating imminent crowding problems. Using data from a large academic hospital in North Carolina, we evaluate three crowding scores, namely, EDWIN, NEDOCS, and READI by assessing strengths and weaknesses of each score, particularly their predictive power...
October 4, 2016: Health Care Management Science
Nita Bharti, Ali Djibo, Andrew J Tatem, Bryan T Grenfell, Matthew J Ferrari
In low-income settings, vaccination campaigns supplement routine immunization but often fail to achieve coverage goals due to uncertainty about target population size and distribution. Accurate, updated estimates of target populations are rare but critical; short-term fluctuations can greatly impact population size and susceptibility. We use satellite imagery to quantify population fluctuations and the coverage achieved by a measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in urban Niger and compare campaign estimates to measurements from a post-campaign survey...
October 5, 2016: Scientific Reports
Nataliya G Batina, Christopher J Crnich, David F Anderson, Dörte Döpfer
BACKGROUND: Residents of nursing homes are commonly colonized with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) but there is a limited understanding of the dynamics and determinants of spread in this setting. To address this gap, we sought to use mathematical modeling to assess the epidemic potential of MRSA in nursing homes and to determine conditions under which non-USA300 and USA300 MRSA could be eliminated or reduced in the facilities. METHODS: Model parameters were estimated from data generated during a longitudinal study of MRSA in 6 Wisconsin nursing homes...
2016: Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control
Yannick Simonin, Fabien Loustalot, Caroline Desmetz, Vincent Foulongne, Orianne Constant, Chantal Fournier-Wirth, Fanny Leon, Jean-Pierre Molès, Aurélien Goubaud, Jean-Marc Lemaitre, Marianne Maquart, Isabelle Leparc-Goffart, Laurence Briant, Nicolas Nagot, Philippe Van de Perre, Sara Salinas
The recent Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic has highlighted the poor knowledge on its physiopathology. Recent studies showed that ZIKV of the Asian lineage, responsible for this international outbreak, causes neuropathology in vitro and in vivo. However, two African lineages exist and the virus is currently found circulating in Africa. The original African strain was also suggested to be neurovirulent but its laboratory usage has been criticized due to its multiple passages. In this study, we compared the French Polynesian (Asian) ZIKV strain to an African strain isolated in Central African Republic and show a difference in infectivity and cellular response between both strains in human neural stem cells and astrocytes...
September 21, 2016: EBioMedicine
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