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Probabilistic model

Melissa Whitfield Aslund, Michael Winchell, Lisa Bowers, Sean McGee, Jane Tang, Lauren Padilla, Colleen Greer, Loren Knopper, Dwayne R J Moore
A probabilistic ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted to determine the potential effects of acute and chronic exposure of aquatic invertebrate communities to imidacloprid arising from labeled agricultural and non-agricultural uses in the United States. Aquatic exposure estimates were derived using a higher tier refined modeling approach that accounts for realistic variability in environmental and agronomic factors. Toxicity was assessed using refined acute and chronic community-level effect metrics for aquatic invertebrates (i...
October 18, 2016: Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
Irina A Tikhonova, Martin W Hoyle, Tristan M Snowsill, Chris Cooper, Joanna L Varley-Campbell, Claudius E Rudin, Ruben E Mujica Mota
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of azacitidine (Celgene) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of this drug for the treatment of acute myeloid leukaemia with more than 30 % bone marrow blasts in adults who are not eligible for haematopoietic stem cell transplantation, as part of the NICE's Single Technology Appraisal process. The Peninsula Technology Assessment Group was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence contained within the company's submission to NICE...
October 17, 2016: PharmacoEconomics
Li Yang, Seng Chuen Tan, Can Chen, Xingzhi Wang, Xinya Li, Xiaoyan Yang
PURPOSE: To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis study of sevelamer versus calcium-based binders (CBBs) in treating hyperphosphatemia among patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in China. METHODS: A decision-analytic model of a lifetime horizon was used for base case analysis from the payers' perspective. The transition probabilities between different health states were derived from survival analysis. The overall survival of CBBs was derived from the Dialysis Clinical Outcomes Revisited study for up to 44 months and a Weibull regression model was used to extrapolate the overall survival to a lifetime horizon...
October 14, 2016: Clinical Therapeutics
David Mathar, Leonora Wilkinson, Anna K Holl, Jane Neumann, Lorenz Deserno, Arno Villringer, Marjan Jahanshahi, Annette Horstmann
Incidental learning of appropriate stimulus-response associations is crucial for optimal functioning within our complex environment. Positive and negative prediction errors (PEs) serve as neural teaching signals within distinct ('direct'/'indirect') dopaminergic pathways to update associations and optimize subsequent behavior. Using a computational reinforcement learning model, we assessed learning from positive and negative PEs on a probabilistic task (Weather Prediction Task - WPT) in three populations that allow different inferences on the role of dopamine (DA) signals: (1) Healthy volunteers that repeatedly underwent [(11)C]raclopride Positron Emission Tomography (PET), allowing for assessment of striatal DA release during learning, (2) Parkinson's disease (PD) patients tested both on and off L-DOPA medication, (3) early Huntington's disease (HD) patients, a disease that is associated with hyper-activation of the 'direct' pathway...
September 19, 2016: Cortex; a Journal Devoted to the Study of the Nervous System and Behavior
Carlos M Mery, Keila N Lopez, Silvana Molossi, S Kristen Sexson-Tejtel, Rajesh Krishnamurthy, E Dean McKenzie, Charles D Fraser, Scott B Cantor
OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to use decision analysis to evaluate the impact of varying uncertainties on the outcomes of patients with anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery. METHODS: Two separate decision analysis models were created: one for anomalous left coronary artery (ALCA) and one for anomalous right coronary artery (ARCA). Three strategies were compared: observation, exercise restriction, and surgery. Probabilities and health utilities were estimated on the basis of existing literature...
November 2016: Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
Cody S Olsen, Andrea M Thomas, Michael Singleton, Anna M Gaichas, Tracy J Smith, Gary A Smith, Justin Peng, Michael J Bauer, Ming Qu, Denise Yeager, Timothy Kerns, Cynthia Burch, Lawrence J Cook
BACKGROUND: Despite evidence that motorcycle helmets reduce morbidity and mortality, helmet laws and rates of helmet use vary by state in the U.S. METHODS: We pooled data from eleven states: five with universal laws requiring all motorcyclists to wear a helmet, and six with partial laws requiring only a subset of motorcyclists to wear a helmet. Data were combined in the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System's General Use Model and included motorcycle crash records probabilistically linked to emergency department and inpatient discharges for years 2005-2008...
December 2016: Injury Epidemiology
Phuc Le, Michael B Rothberg
BACKGROUND: The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends a single dose of herpes zoster (HZ) vaccine in persons aged 60 years or older, but the efficacy decreases to zero after approximately 10 years. A booster dose administered after 10 years might extend protection, but the cost-effectiveness of a booster strategy has not been examined. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the optimal schedule for HZ vaccine DESIGN: We built a Markov model to follow patients over their lifetime...
October 14, 2016: Journal of General Internal Medicine
Elisa Salviato, Vera Djordjilović, Monica Chiogna, Chiara Romualdi
: In the omic era, one of the main aims is to discover groups of functionally related genes that drive the difference between different conditions. To this end, a plethora of potentially useful multivariate statistical approaches has been proposed, but their evaluation is hindered by the absence of a gold standard. Here, we propose a method for simulating biological data-gene expression, RPKM/FPKM or protein abundances-from two conditions, namely, a reference condition and a perturbation of it...
October 14, 2016: Bioinformatics
Yi Chen, Régis Pouillot, Laurel S Burall, Errol A Strain, Jane M Van Doren, Antonio J De Jesus, Anna Laasri, Hua Wang, Laila Ali, Aparna Tatavarthy, Guodong Zhang, Lijun Hu, James Day, Ishani Sheth, Jihun Kang, Surasri Sahu, Devayani Srinivasan, Eric W Brown, Mickey Parish, Donald L Zink, Atin R Datta, Thomas S Hammack, Dumitru Macarisin
A precise and accurate method for enumeration of low level of Listeria monocytogenes in foods is critical to a variety of studies. In this study, paired comparison of most probable number (MPN) and direct plating enumeration of L. monocytogenes was conducted on a total of 1730 outbreak-associated ice cream samples that were naturally contaminated with low level of L. monocytogenes. MPN was performed on all 1730 samples. Direct plating was performed on all samples using the RAPID'L.mono (RLM) agar (1600 samples) and agar Listeria Ottaviani and Agosti (ALOA; 130 samples)...
September 26, 2016: International Journal of Food Microbiology
Alireza Karbalayghareh, Ulisses Braga-Neto, Jianping Hua, Edward R Dougherty
Gene-expression-based phenotype classification is used for disease diagnosis and prognosis relating to treatment strategies. The present paper considers classification based on sequential measurements of multiple genes using gene regulatory network (GRN) modeling. There are two networks, original and mutated, and observations consist of trajectories of network states. The problem is to classify an observation trajectory as coming from either the original or mutated network. GRNs are modeled via probabilistic Boolean networks, which incorporate stochasticity at both the gene and network levels...
October 11, 2016: IEEE/ACM Transactions on Computational Biology and Bioinformatics
Hussein A Hejase, Kevin J Liu
BACKGROUND: Branching events in phylogenetic trees reflect bifurcating and/or multifurcating speciation and splitting events. In the presence of gene flow, a phylogeny cannot be described by a tree but is instead a directed acyclic graph known as a phylogenetic network. Both phylogenetic trees and networks are typically reconstructed using computational analysis of multi-locus sequence data. The advent of high-throughput sequencing technologies has brought about two main scalability challenges: (1) dataset size in terms of the number of taxa and (2) the evolutionary divergence of the taxa in a study...
October 13, 2016: BMC Bioinformatics
Daniel J Rocke, David P Goldstein, John R de Almeida
Importance: Intraoperative nerve monitoring (IONM) of the recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) is used as a tool to decrease the rate of nerve injury, although study findings are divergent on IONM efficacy. The cost-effectiveness of this approach to total thyroidectomy has not been well studied. Objective: To determine whether IONM is a cost-effective intervention in the setting of total thyroidectomy. Design and Setting: This study creates a decision-tree model of total thyroidectomy to analyze, from a societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness of universal IONM (ie, use in every case) vs selective IONM (ie, high-risk cases including reoperative cases, substernal or toxic goiters, and cases with known cancer) vs no IONM (visual identification only)...
October 13, 2016: JAMA Otolaryngology—Head & Neck Surgery
Bianca Miarka, Katarzyna Sterkowicz-Przybycien, David H Fukuda
The purpose of the present study was to create a probabilistic neural network (PNN) to clarify the understanding of movement patterns in international judo competitions by gender. Analysis of 773 male and 638 female bouts was utilized to identify movements during the approach, gripping, attack (including biomechanical designations), groundwork, defense, and pause phases. PNN and χ(2) tests modeled and compared frequencies (p≤0.05). Women (mean[interquartile range]: 9.9[4;14]) attacked more than men (7.0[3;10]) while attempting a greater number of arm/leg lever (women: 2...
October 13, 2016: Motor Control
Clélia M Bianchi, Manon Egnell, Jean-François Huneau, François Mariotti
BACKGROUND: Plant protein intake, which is favorably associated with the intake of many nutrients, is a marker of a healthy diet. However, the higher nutrient adequacy of diets rich in plant protein may also originate from overarching factors associated with more healthful dietary behaviors, such as a greater dietary diversity. OBJECTIVE: Our main objective was to determine whether the relation between plant protein intake and nutrient adequacy could be explained, at least in part, by an association with overall dietary diversity...
October 12, 2016: Journal of Nutrition
Morgane Milienne-Petiot, James P Kesby, Mary Graves, Jordy van Enkhuizen, Svetlana Semenova, Arpi Minassian, Athina Markou, Mark A Geyer, Jared W Young
BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder (BD) mania patients exhibit poor cognition and reward-seeking/hypermotivation, negatively impacting a patient's quality of life. Current treatments (e.g., lithium), do not treat such deficits. Treatment development has been limited due to a poor understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying these behaviors. Here, we investigated putative mechanisms underlying cognition and reward-seeking/motivational changes relevant to BD mania patients using two validated mouse models and neurochemical analyses...
October 9, 2016: Neuropharmacology
Jey Han Lau, Alexander Clark, Shalom Lappin
The question of whether humans represent grammatical knowledge as a binary condition on membership in a set of well-formed sentences, or as a probabilistic property has been the subject of debate among linguists, psychologists, and cognitive scientists for many decades. Acceptability judgments present a serious problem for both classical binary and probabilistic theories of grammaticality. These judgements are gradient in nature, and so cannot be directly accommodated in a binary formal grammar. However, it is also not possible to simply reduce acceptability to probability...
October 12, 2016: Cognitive Science
Mercè Comas, Joan Mendivil, Montserrat Andreu, Cristina Hernández, Xavier Castells
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term need for colonoscopies after a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and post-polypectomy surveillance in the context of a population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program. METHODS: A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the process of CRC screening and post-polypectomy surveillance following European guidelines in a population of 100,000 men and women aged 50-69 years over a 20-year period. Screening consisted of biennial FIT and colonoscopy in participants with positive results...
2016: PloS One
Niels Chr Hansen, Peter Vuust, Marcus Pearce
Musical expertise entails meticulous stylistic specialisation and enculturation. Even so, research on musical training effects has focused on generalised comparisons between musicians and non-musicians, and cross-cultural work addressing specialised expertise has traded cultural specificity and sensitivity for other methodological limitations. This study aimed to experimentally dissociate the effects of specialised stylistic training and general musical expertise on the perception of melodies. Non-musicians and professional musicians specialising in classical music or jazz listened to sampled renditions of saxophone solos improvised by Charlie Parker in the bebop style...
2016: PloS One
Luis Hernandez, Shien Guo, Hector Toro-Diaz, Stuart Carroll, Syed Feisal Syed Farooq
AIMS: Peginterferon beta-1a 125 mcg administered subcutaneously every two weeks, a new disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), was approved in January 2015 by the Scottish Medicines Consortium. This study assesses long-term clinical and economic outcomes of peginterferon beta-1a compared with other self-injectable DMTs (interferon beta-1a [22 mcg, 30 mcg, and 44 mcg], interferon beta-1b, and glatiramer acetate 20 mg) in the treatment of RRMS, from the National Health Service and personal social services perspective in Scotland...
October 12, 2016: Journal of Medical Economics
Hai V Nguyen, Gavin Siew Wei Tan, Robyn Jennifer Tapp, Shweta Mital, Daniel Shu Wei Ting, Hon Tym Wong, Colin S Tan, Augustinus Laude, E Shyong Tai, Ngiap Chuan Tan, Eric A Finkelstein, Tien Yin Wong, Ecosse L Lamoureux
PURPOSE: To determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of a new telemedicine technician-based assessment relative to an existing model of family physician (FP)-based assessment of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Singapore from the health system and societal perspectives. DESIGN: Model-based, cost-effectiveness analysis of the Singapore Integrated Diabetic Retinopathy Program (SiDRP). PARTICIPANTS: A hypothetical cohort of patients aged 55 years with type 2 diabetes previously not screened for DR...
October 7, 2016: Ophthalmology
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