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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29220640/invariants-in-probabilistic-reasoning
#1
Fintan Costello, Paul Watts
Recent research has identified three invariants or identities that appear to hold in people's probabilistic reasoning: the QQ identity, the addition law identity, and the Bayes rule identity (Costello and Watts, 2014, 2016a, Fisher and Wolfe, 2014, Wang and Busemeyer, 2013, Wang et al., 2014). Each of these identities represent specific agreement with the requirements of normative probability theory; strikingly, these identities seem to hold in people's judgements despite the presence of strong and systematic biases against the requirements of normative probability theory in those very same judgements...
December 5, 2017: Cognitive Psychology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29220369/can-mother-to-child-transmission-of-hiv-be-eliminated-without-addressing-the-issue-of-stigma-modeling-the-case-for-a-setting-in-south-africa
#2
Holly J Prudden, Matthew Hamilton, Anna M Foss, Nicole Dzialowy Adams, Melissa Stockton, Vivian Black, Laura Nyblade
BACKGROUND: Stigma and discrimination ontinue to undermine the effectiveness of the HIV response. Despite a growing body of evidence of the negative relationship between stigma and HIV outcomes, there is a paucity of data available on the prevalence of stigma and its impact. We present a probabilistic cascade model to estimate the magnitude of impact stigma has on mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT). METHODS: The model was parameterized using 2010 data from Johannesburg, South Africa, from which loss-to-care at each stage of the antenatal cascade were available...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29216880/cost-effectiveness-of-human-papilloma-virus-hpv-vaccination-in-nigeria-a-decision-analysis-using-pragmatic-parameter-estimates-for-cost-and-programme-coverage
#3
Obinna I Ekwunife, Stefan K Lhachimi
BACKGROUND: World Health Organisation recommends routine Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination for girls when its cost-effectiveness in the country or region has been duly considered. We therefore aimed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Nigeria using pragmatic parameter estimates for cost and programme coverage, i.e. realistically achievable in the studied context. METHODS: A microsimulation frame-work was used. The natural history for cervical cancer disease was remodelled from a previous Nigerian model-based study...
December 8, 2017: BMC Health Services Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29215355/quantitative-microbial-risk-assessment-to-estimate-the-health-risk-from-exposure-to-noroviruses-in-polluted-surface-water-in-south-africa
#4
Nicole Van Abel, Janet Mans, Maureen B Taylor
This study assessed the risks posed by noroviruses (NoVs) in surface water used for drinking, domestic, and recreational purposes in South Africa (SA), using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) methodology that took a probabilistic approach coupling an exposure assessment with four dose-response models to account for uncertainty. Water samples from three rivers were found to be contaminated with NoV GI (80-1,900 gc/L) and GII (420-9,760 gc/L) leading to risk estimates that were lower for GI than GII...
October 2017: Journal of Water and Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29214323/economic-value-of-using-partially-hydrolysed-infant-formula-for-risk-reduction-of-atopic-dermatitis-in-high-risk-infants-not-exclusively-breastfed-in-singapore
#5
Marc F Botteman, Abhijeet J Bhanegaonkar, Erica G Horodniceanu, Xiang Ji, Bee Wah Lee, Lynette P Shek, Hugo Ps Van Bever, Patrick Detzel
INTRODUCTION: Previous trials have demonstrated reductions in atopic dermatitis (AD) incidence when healthy, high-risk, non-exclusively breastfed infants were fed until four months of age with 100% whey-based partially hydrolysed formula (PHF-W) versus standard cow's milk formula (CMF). We assessed this intervention's cost-effectiveness in Singapore. METHODS: Modelling techniques were used to simulate, from birth to Month 30, the incidence, and clinical and economic burden of AD in high-risk, non-exclusively breastfed infants fed with PHF-W or CMF for up to four months...
December 7, 2017: Singapore Medical Journal
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29213344/psychotherapy-for-major-depressive-disorder-and-generalized-anxiety-disorder-a-health-technology-assessment
#6
(no author information available yet)
Background: Major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder are among the most commonly diagnosed mental illnesses in Canada; both are associated with a high societal and economic burden. Treatment for major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder consists of pharmacological and psychological interventions. Three commonly used psychological interventions are cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), interpersonal therapy, and supportive therapy. The objectives of this report were to assess the effectiveness and safety of these types of therapy for the treatment of adults with major depressive disorder and/or generalized anxiety disorder, to assess the cost-effectiveness of structured psychotherapy (CBT or interpersonal therapy), to calculate the budget impact of publicly funding structured psychotherapy, and to gain a greater understanding of the experiences of people with major depressive disorder and/or generalized anxiety disorder...
2017: Ontario Health Technology Assessment Series
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29212509/incremental-cost-and-cost-effectiveness-of-low-dose-high-frequency-training-in-basic-emergency-obstetric-and-newborn-care-as-compared-to-status-quo-part-of-a-cluster-randomized-training-intervention-evaluation-in-ghana
#7
Michelle Willcox, Heather Harrison, Amos Asiedu, Allyson Nelson, Patricia Gomez, Amnesty LeFevre
BACKGROUND: Low-dose, high-frequency (LDHF) training is a new approach best practices to improve clinical knowledge, build and retain competency, and transfer skills into practice after training. LDHF training in Ghana is an opportunity to build health workforce capacity in critical areas of maternal and newborn health and translate improved capacity into better health outcomes. METHODS: This study examined the costs of an LDHF training approach for basic emergency obstetric and newborn care and calculates the incremental cost-effectiveness of the LDHF training program for health outcomes of newborn survival, compared to the status quo alternative of no training...
December 6, 2017: Globalization and Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29210031/adjuvant-statin-therapy-for-esophageal-adenocarcinoma-a-cost-utility-analysis
#8
Rebekah Fong Soe Khioe, Chris Skedgel, Andrew Hart, Michael Philip Nelson Lewis, Leo Alexandre
BACKGROUND: Emerging preclinical evidence indicates statins, medications commonly used in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), inhibit proliferation, promote apoptosis and limit invasiveness of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Population-based observational data demonstrate statin treatment after diagnosis of EAC is associated with significant reductions in all-cause and cancer-specific mortality. A feasibility study of adjuvant statin therapy following potentially curative resection for EAC has been completed, with planned progression to a full phase III, randomized controlled trial...
December 5, 2017: PharmacoEconomics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29209972/pbpk-pd-assessment-for-parkinson-s-disease-risk-posed-by-airborne-pesticide-paraquat-exposure
#9
Yi-Hsien Cheng, Wei-Chun Chou, Ying-Fei Yang, Chi-Wei Huang, Chun Ming How, Szu-Chieh Chen, Wei-Yu Chen, Nan-Hung Hsieh, Yi-Jun Lin, Shu-Han You, Chung-Min Liao
Exposure to several specific pesticides has led to an increase of Parkinson's disease (PD) risk. However, it is difficult to quantify the PD population risk related to certain pesticides in regions where environmental exposure data are scarce. Furthermore, the time trend of the prevalence and incidence of PD embedded in the background relationship between PD risk and pesticide exposures has not been well characterized. It has been convincingly identified that a key pesticide associated significantly with an increased risk trend of PD is paraquat (PQ)...
December 5, 2017: Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29209954/qspr-analysis-of-threshold-of-odor-for-the-large-number-of-heterogenic-chemicals
#10
Andrey A Toropov, Alla P Toropova, Luigi Cappellini, Emilio Benfenati, Enrico Davoli
Quantitative structure-property relationships for odor thresholds based on representation of the molecular structure by the simplified molecular input-line entry system were established using the CORAL software. The total set of compounds with numerical data on the so-called arithmetic odor thresholds ([Formula: see text]) was distributed into the training and validation sets, three times. The average statistical quality of these models is (1) for training set [Formula: see text]; and (2) for validation set [Formula: see text]...
December 5, 2017: Molecular Diversity
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29209469/probability-or-reasoning-current-thinking-and-realistic-strategies-for-improved-medical-decisions
#11
REVIEW
Yogarabindranath Swarna Nantha
A prescriptive model approach in decision making could help achieve better diagnostic accuracy in clinical practice through methods that are less reliant on probabilistic assessments. Various prescriptive measures aimed at regulating factors that influence heuristics and clinical reasoning could support clinical decision-making process. Clinicians could avoid time-consuming decision-making methods that require probabilistic calculations. Intuitively, they could rely on heuristics to obtain an accurate diagnosis in a given clinical setting...
November 2017: Korean Journal of Family Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29208072/risk-based-strategies-for-surveillance-of-tuberculosis-infection-in-cattle-for-low-risk-areas-in-england-and-scotland
#12
L C M Salvador, M Deason, J Enright, P R Bessell, R R Kao
Disease surveillance can be made more effective by either improving disease detection, providing cost savings, or doing both. Currently, cattle herds in low-risk areas (LRAs) for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in England are tested once every 4 years. In Scotland, the default herd testing frequency is also 4 years, but a risk-based system exempts some herds from testing altogether. To extend this approach to other areas, a bespoke understanding of at-risk herds and how risk-based surveillance can affect bTB detection is required...
December 6, 2017: Epidemiology and Infection
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29207332/a-model-assessment-method-for-predicting-structural-fatigue-life-using-lamb-waves
#13
Dengjiang Wang, Jingjing He, Xuefei Guan, Jinsong Yang, Weifang Zhang
This paper presents a study on model assessment for predicting structural fatigue life using Lamb waves. Lamb wave coupon testing is performed for model development. Three damage sensitive features, namely normalized energy, phase change, and correlation coefficient are extracted from Lamb wave data and are used to quantify the crack size. Four data-driven models are proposed. The average relative error and the probability of detection (POD) are proposed as two measures to evaluate the performance of the four models...
December 2, 2017: Ultrasonics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29203628/predicting-out-of-office-blood-pressure-in-the-clinic-for-the-diagnosis-of-hypertension-in-primary-care-an-economic-evaluation
#14
Mark Monahan, Sue Jowett, Kate Lovibond, Paramjit Gill, Marshall Godwin, Sheila Greenfield, Janet Hanley, F D Richard Hobbs, Una Martin, Jonathan Mant, Brian McKinstry, Bryan Williams, James P Sheppard, Richard J McManus
Clinical guidelines in the United States and United Kingdom recommend that individuals with suspected hypertension should have ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring to confirm the diagnosis. This approach reduces misdiagnosis because of white coat hypertension but will not identify people with masked hypertension who may benefit from treatment. The Predicting Out-of-Office Blood Pressure (PROOF-BP) algorithm predicts masked and white coat hypertension based on patient characteristics and clinic BP, improving the accuracy of diagnosis while limiting subsequent ambulatory BP monitoring...
December 4, 2017: Hypertension
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29203507/the-short-term-health-and-economic-burden-of-gestational-diabetes-mellitus-in-china-a-modelling-study
#15
Tingting Xu, Livia Dainelli, Kai Yu, Liangkun Ma, Irma Silva Zolezzi, Patrick Detzel, Hai Fang
OBJECTIVES: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with a higher risk for adverse health outcomes during pregnancy and delivery for both mothers and babies. This study aims to assess the short-term health and economic burden of GDM in China in 2015. DESIGN: Using TreeAge Pro, an analytical decision model was built to estimate the incremental costs and quality-of-life loss due to GDM, in comparison with pregnancy without GDM from the 28th gestational week until and including childbirth...
December 3, 2017: BMJ Open
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29202321/quantitative-analysis-of-breast-cancer-diagnosis-using-a-probabilistic-modelling-approach
#16
Shuo Liu, Jinshu Zeng, Huizhou Gong, Hongqin Yang, Jia Zhai, Yi Cao, Junxiu Liu, Yuling Luo, Yuhua Li, Liam Maguire, Xuemei Ding
BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer in women in most countries of the world. Many computer-aided diagnostic methods have been proposed, but there are few studies on quantitative discovery of probabilistic dependencies among breast cancer data features and identification of the contribution of each feature to breast cancer diagnosis. METHODS: This study aims to fill this void by utilizing a Bayesian network (BN) modelling approach. A K2 learning algorithm and statistical computation methods are used to construct BN structure and assess the obtained BN model...
November 21, 2017: Computers in Biology and Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29202125/gaussian-process-regression-gpr-representation-in-predictive-model-markup-language-pmml
#17
J Park, D Lechevalier, R Ak, M Ferguson, K H Law, Y-T T Lee, S Rachuri
This paper describes Gaussian process regression (GPR) models presented in predictive model markup language (PMML). PMML is an extensible-markup-language (XML) -based standard language used to represent data-mining and predictive analytic models, as well as pre- and post-processed data. The previous PMML version, PMML 4.2, did not provide capabilities for representing probabilistic (stochastic) machine-learning algorithms that are widely used for constructing predictive models taking the associated uncertainties into consideration...
2017: Smart and Sustainable Manufacturing Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29201288/cost-effectiveness-analysis-of-ibrutinib-in-patients-with-waldenstr%C3%A3-m-macroglobulinemia-in-italy
#18
Andrea Aiello, Anna D'Ausilio, Roberta Lo Muto, Francesca Randon, Luca Laurenti
Background and Objective: Ibrutinib has recently been approved in Europe for Waldenström Macroglobulinemia (WM) in symptomatic patients who have received at least one prior therapy, or in first-line treatment for patients unsuitable for chemo-immunotherapy. The aim of the study is to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ibrutinib in relapse/refractory WM, compared with the Italian current therapeutic pathways (CTP). Methods: A Markov model was adapted for Italy considering the National Health System perspective...
2017: Journal of Market Access & Health Policy
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29200535/mjo-related-tropical-convection-anomalies-lead-to-more-accurate-stratospheric-vortex-variability-in-subseasonal-forecast-models
#19
C I Garfinkel, C Schwartz
The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in the period preceding stratospheric sudden warmings is evaluated in operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO-related convection in the Tropical West Pacific also simulate enhanced heat flux in the lowermost stratosphere and a more realistic vortex evolution. The time scale on which vortex predictability is enhanced lies between 2 and 4 weeks for nearly all cases...
October 16, 2017: Geophysical Research Letters
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29199395/projecting-the-cost-utilization-and-patient-care-impact-of-prescribing-extended-release-non-abuse-deterrent-opioids-to-chronic-pain-patients
#20
Mihran Ara Yenikomshian, Alan G White, Michael E Carson, Louis P Garrison, Gary M Oderda, Joseph E Biskupiak, Patrick R Hlavacek, Carl L Roland
OBJECTIVES: To estimate healthcare resource utilization, associated costs, and number needed to harm (NNH) from a physician's decision to prescribe extended-release (ER) non-abuse-deterrent opioids (non-ADO) as compared to ER ADOs in a chronic pain population. DESIGN: A 12-month probabilistic simulation model was developed to estimate the reduction of misuse and/or abuse from a physician's prescribing decisions for 10,000 patients. Model inputs included probabilities for opioid misuse and/or abuse-related events, opioid discontinuation, and switching from ADO to non-ADO...
September 2017: Journal of Opioid Management
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