Probabilistic model

Probabilistic latent variable models (PLVMs), such as probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA), are widely employed in process monitoring and fault detection of industrial processes. This article proposes a novel deep PPCA (DePPCA) model, which has the advantages of both probabilistic modeling and deep learning. The construction of DePPCA includes a greedy layer-wise pretraining phase and a unified end-to-end fine-tuning phase. The former establishes a hierarchical deep structure based on cascading multiple layers of the PPCA module to extract high-level features...

AIMS: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a treatment-pathway initiated with bimekizumab, a monoclonal IgG1 antibody that selectively inhibits interleukin (IL)-17F in addition to IL-17A, in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) compared with IL-17A inhibitors, ixekizumab, and secukinumab, from the National Health Service (NHS) of Scotland perspective. METHODS: The axSpA treatment-pathway was modeled using a one-year decision tree followed by a lifetime Markov model...

BACKGROUND: Root caries are prevalent issues that affect dental health, particularly among elderly individuals with exposed root surfaces. Fluoride therapy has shown effectiveness in preventing root caries, but limited studies have addressed its cost-effectiveness in elderly persons population. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a fluoride treatment program for preventing root caries in elderly persons within the context of Chinese public healthcare. METHODS: A Markov simulation model was adopted for the cost-effectiveness analysis in a hypothetical scenario from a healthcare system perspective...

Modelling of solar irradiation is paramount to renewable energy management. This warrants the inclusion of additive effects to predict solar irradiation. Modelling of additive effects to solar irradiation can improve the forecasting accuracy of prediction frameworks. To help develop the frameworks, this current study modelled the additive effects using non-parametric quantile regression (QR). The approach applies quantile splines to approximate non-parametric components when finding the best relationships between covariates and the response variable...

PURPOSE: To assess the cost-utility of prophylactic laser peripheral iridotomy (LPI) for primary angle closure (PAC) suspects (PACS). DESIGN: Economic evaluation. METHODS: Our Markov model randomized PACS eyes to LPI or observation for 40 one-year cycles (100,000 iterations per strategy). Each cycle, an eye remained in its current health state, advanced linearly through PAC, mild, moderate, severe, and end-stage PAC glaucoma (PACG), or died...

The FLT3 inhibitor quizartinib has been shown to improve overall survival when added to intensive induction chemotherapy ("7 + 3") in patients 18-75 years old with newly diagnosed AML harboring a FLT3- ITD mutation. However, the health economic implications of this approval are unknown. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of quizartinib using a partitioned survival analysis model. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the base case scenario, the addition of quizartinib to 7 + 3 resulted in incremental costs of $289,932 compared with 7 + 3 alone...

Cortical neurons exhibit highly variable responses over trials and time. Theoretical works posit that this variability arises potentially from chaotic network dynamics of recurrently connected neurons. Here, we demonstrate that chaotic neural dynamics, formed through synaptic learning, allow networks to perform sensory cue integration in a sampling-based implementation. We show that the emergent chaotic dynamics provide neural substrates for generating samples not only of a static variable but also of a dynamical trajectory, where generic recurrent networks acquire these abilities with a biologically plausible learning rule through trial and error...

BACKGROUND: Productivity costs of STIs reflect the value of lost time due to STI morbidity and mortality, including time spent travelling to, waiting for, and receiving STI treatment. The purpose of this study was to provide updated estimates of the average lifetime productivity cost for chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis, per incident infection. METHODS: We adapted published decision tree models from recent studies of the lifetime medical costs of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in the United States...

BACKGROUND: Irritable Bowel Syndrome has emerged as a significant public health challenge, particularly relevant in medical students due to the high demands of their studies, academic stress, and susceptibility to eating disorders. Nevertheless, conclusive evidence regarding the factors associated with Irritable Bowel Syndrome in the Latin American student population remains limited. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and factors associated with Irritable Bowel Syndrome in Human Medicine students at a university in northern Peru...

In this work, a workflow has been developed for the generation of surrogate metamodels to predict and evaluate failure with a confidence above 95 % in initial service conditions of high-performance cylindrical vessels manufactured in composites by Roll Wrapping technology. Currently, there is no specific testing standardization for this type of vessel and to fill this gap probabilistic numerical models were developed, performed by the Finite Element Method, fed with the material characteristics obtained experimentally by 2D digital image correlation from flat specimens...

BACKGROUND: Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results...

BACKGROUND: In 2016, England launched the largest nationwide diabetes mellitus prevention programme, the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP). This paper seeks to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of this programme. METHODS: A Markov cohort state transition model was developed with a 35-year time horizon and yearly cycles to compare referral to the NHS DPP to usual care for individuals with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia. The modelled cohort of individuals mirrored the age profile of referrals received by the programme by April 2020...

In this study, as part of basic research aimed at enhancing the accuracy of load and resistance coefficients to ensure their suitability for practical design and promoting the application of underutilized reliability-based design in Korea, the author conducts optimal design based on the reliability analysis of a vertical-type breakwater in the seas off of Haeundae, Yeosu, Mokpo, Gunsan, and Incheon-representative ports in Korea. In doing so, the author utilized the double-loop approach, which simultaneously addresses a reliability problem nested within an optimization process, employing the Polak-He optimization algorithm...

OBJECTIVE: Clinical trials involve the collection of a wealth of data, comprising multiple diverse measurements performed at baseline and follow-up visits over the course of a trial. The most common primary analysis is restricted to a single, potentially composite endpoint at one time point. While such an analytical focus promotes simple and replicable conclusions, it does not necessarily fully capture the multi-faceted effects of a drug in a complex disease setting. Therefore, to complement existing approaches, we set out here to design a longitudinal multivariate analytical framework that accepts as input an entire clinical trial database, comprising all measurements, patients, and time points across multiple trials...

BACKGROUND: Despite the recognised high prevalence of migraines among bank employees, yet their healthcare utilisation patterns and the economic burden of migraines remain underexplored. AIM: To examine migraine-related healthcare utilisation among bank employees in China, and to estimate the economic burden of migraines. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Guizhou province, China between May and October 2022. The HARDSHIP questionnaire was used to identify migraine-positive individuals and enquire about their healthcare utilisation and productivity losses...

OBJECTIVES: The results of a recent single-arm trial (ZUMA-5) of axicabtagene ciloleucel (axi-cel) for relapsed/refractory (r/r) FL demonstrated high rates of durable response and tolerable toxicity among treated patients. To quantify the value of axi-cel compared to standard of care (SOC) to manage r/r FL patients who have had at least two prior lines of systemic therapy (3L+), a cost-effectiveness model was developed from a US third-party payer perspective. METHODS: A three-state partitioned survival cost-effectiveness model was developed with a lifetime horizon...

OBJECTIVES: Health economic (HE) models are often considered as "black boxes" because they are not publicly available and lack transparency, which prevents independent scrutiny of HE models. Additionally, validation efforts and validation status of HE models are not systematically reported. Methods to validate HE models in absence of their full underlying code are therefore urgently needed to improve health policy making.This study aimed to develop and test a generic dashboard to systematically explore the workings of HE models and validate their model parameters and outcomes...

BACKGROUND: Durvalumab plus etoposide-platinum (DEP) showed sustained overall survival improvements in patients with extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) compared to etoposide-platinum (EP), but adding tremelimumab to DEP (DTEP) did not significantly improve outcomes. A third-party payer perspective is taken here to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of DTEP, DEP, and EP for ES-SCLC. METHODS: The cost-effectiveness was evaluated by partitioning survival models into 3 mutually exclusive health states...

Frailty models are important for survival data because they allow for the possibility of unobserved heterogeneity problem. The problem of heterogeneity can be existed due to a variety of factors, such as genetic predisposition, environmental factors, or lifestyle choices. Frailty models can help to identify these factors and to better understand their impact on survival. In this study, we suggest a novel quasi xgamma frailty (QXg-F) model for the survival analysis. In this work, the test of Rao-Robson and Nikulin is employed to test the validity and suitability of the probabilistic model, we examine the distribution's properties and evaluate its performance in comparison with many relevant cox-frailty models...

The prediction error account of delusions has had success. However, its explanation of delusions with different contents has been lacking. Persecutory delusions and paranoia are the common unfounded beliefs that others have harmful intentions towards us. Other delusions include believing that one's thoughts or actions are under external control, or that events in the world have specific personal meaning. We compare learning on two different cognitive tasks, probabilistic reversal learning (PRL) and Kamin blocking, that have relationships to paranoid and non-paranoid delusion-like beliefs, respectively...