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Probabilistic model

G Göransson, J Norrman, M Larson
The potential catastrophic event of a landslide bringing contaminants to surface waters has been highlighted in public media, but there are still few scientific studies analyzing the risk of landslides with contaminated soil. The aim of this study is to present a method to estimate the risk of potential long-term ecological effects on water bodies due to contaminated soil released into a river through a landslide. The study constitutes further development of previous work focusing on the instantaneous (short-term) release of contaminants and associated effects...
June 14, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Xinguang Chen, Bin Yu, Ding-Geng Chen
A growing number of young people smoke electronic (e-) cigarettes, presenting an emerging challenge to tobacco control. Analyses are needed to better understand the dynamics of mutual transitions between e-cigarette and conventional combustible (c-) cigarette smoking to advance evidence-based tobacco control. In this study we modeled the nonlinear dynamics of c- and e-cigarette smoking behavior transitions using the 2014 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) data. A model with five Markov-Chain transition stages linked by 21 transitional paths/probabilities was constructed, guided by the probabilistic discrete event systems (PDES) theory...
July 2018: Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences
M M H Sabbir, M K Hassan
We study explosive percolation (EP) on an Erdös-Rényi network for product rule (PR) and sum rule (SR). Initially, it was claimed that EP describes discontinuous phase transition; now it is well accepted as a probabilistic model for thermal continuous phase transition (CPT). However, no model for CPT is complete unless we know how to relate its observable quantities with those of thermal CPT. To this end, we define entropy and specific heat, redefine susceptibility, and show that they behave exactly like their thermal counterparts...
May 2018: Physical Review. E
Barbara Geissmann, Paolo Penna
We study very simple sorting algorithms based on a probabilistic comparator model. In this model, errors in comparing two elements are due to (1) the energy or effort put in the comparison and (2) the difference between the compared elements. Such algorithms repeatedly compare and swap pairs of randomly chosen elements, and they correspond to natural Markovian processes. The study of these Markov chains reveals an interesting phenomenon. Namely, in several cases, the algorithm that repeatedly compares only adjacent elements is better than the one making arbitrary comparisons: in the long-run, the former algorithm produces sequences that are "better sorted"...
May 2018: Physical Review. E
Logan C Brooks, David C Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Ryan J Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld
Accurate and reliable forecasts of seasonal epidemics of infectious disease can assist in the design of countermeasures and increase public awareness and preparedness. This article describes two main contributions we made recently toward this goal: a novel approach to probabilistic modeling of surveillance time series based on "delta densities", and an optimization scheme for combining output from multiple forecasting methods into an adaptively weighted ensemble. Delta densities describe the probability distribution of the change between one observation and the next, conditioned on available data; chaining together nonparametric estimates of these distributions yields a model for an entire trajectory...
June 15, 2018: PLoS Computational Biology
Zhiqiong Wang, Junchang Xin, Peishun Sun, Zhixiang Lin, Yudong Yao, Xiaosong Gao
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Among all malignant tumors, lung cancer ranks in the top in mortality rate. Pulmonary nodule is the early manifestation of lung cancer, and plays an important role in its discovery, diagnosis and treatment. The technology of medical imaging has encountered a rapid development in recent years, thus the amount of pulmonary nodules can be discovered are on the raise, which means even tiny or minor changes in lung can be recorded by the CT images. This paper proposes a pulmonary nodule computer aided diagnosis (CAD) based on semi-supervised extreme learning machine(SS-ELM)...
August 2018: Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine
Cagatay Murat Yilmaz, Cemal Kose, Bahar Hatipoglu
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Electroencephalography (EEG) is a method that measures and records the electrical activity of the human brain. These biomedical signals are currently being actively used in many research fields and have a wide range of potential uses in brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). The main aim of the present work is to improve the classification of EEG patterns for EEG-based BCI systems. METHODS: In this paper, we presented a classification approach for EEG-based BCIs...
August 2018: Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine
Angie Pinto, Patricia Grey, Ansari Shaik, David A Cooper, Anthony D Kelleher, Kathy Petoumenos
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to understand factors associated with increased mortality in a cohort of primary HIV infection (PHI) in New South Wales over three decades. METHODS: 602 patients with PHI were enrolled from 1984 to 2009. Probabilistic data linkage was performed to NSW Registry of births deaths and marriages, and Australian Bureau of Statistics mortality database. Mortality was measured by crude death rate. Pre highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-HAART) era was defined as prior to 1 January 1997...
June 14, 2018: AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses
Rui Figueiredo, Mario L V Martina, David B Stephenson, Benjamin D Youngman
There is a pressing need for simple and reliable risk transfer mechanisms that can pay out quickly after natural disasters without delays caused by loss estimation, and the need for long historical claims records. One such approach, known as parametric insurance, pays out when a key hazard variable exceeds a predetermined threshold. However, this approach to catastrophe risk, based on making deterministic binary predictions of loss occurrence, is susceptible to basis risk (mismatch between payouts and realized losses)...
June 13, 2018: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Casey Hanson, Junmei Cairns, Liewei Wang, Saurabh Sinha
Recent studies have analyzed large scale data sets of gene expression to identify genes associated with inter-individual variation in phenotypes ranging from cancer sub-types to drug sensitivity, promising new avenues of research in personalized medicine. However, gene expression data alone is limited in its ability to reveal cis-regulatory mechanisms underlying phenotypic differences. In this study, we develop a new probabilistic model, called pGENMi, that integrates multi-omic data to investigate the transcriptional regulatory mechanisms underlying inter-individual variation of a specific phenotype - that of cell line response to cytotoxic treatment...
June 13, 2018: Genome Research
Chunhe Li, Lei Zhang, Qing Nie
BACKGROUND: Spatial pattern formation is a critical issue in developmental biology. Gene expression boundary sharpening has been observed from both experiments and modeling simulations. However, the mechanism to determine the sharpness of the boundary is not fully elucidated. RESULTS: We investigated the boundary sharpening resulted by three biological motifs, interacting with morphogens, and uncovered their probabilistic landscapes. The landscape view, along with calculated average switching time between attractors, provides a natural explanation for the boundary sharpening behavior relying on the noise induced gene state switchings...
June 13, 2018: BMC Systems Biology
Gregory F Guzauskas, Anthony Masaquel, Carolina Reyes, Coen Bernaards, Tania Krivasi, David L Veenstra
AIMS: Obinutuzumab (GA101, G) was approved in February 2016 by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to treat follicular lymphoma (FL) patients who relapsed after, or are refractory to (R/R), a rituximab-containing regimen (R/R-rituximab). In the GADOLIN trial, R/R-rituximab patients who received G plus bendamustine (B) followed by G-monotherapy (G+B) for up to 2 years had significantly improved progression-free survival and overall survival compared to patients receiving B-monotherapy...
June 13, 2018: Journal of Medical Economics
Wenyuan Li, Qingjiao Li, Shuli Kang, Mary Same, Yonggang Zhou, Carol Sun, Chun-Chi Liu, Lea Matsuoka, Linda Sher, Wing Hung Wong, Frank Alber, Xianghong Jasmine Zhou
The detection of tumor-derived cell-free DNA in plasma is one of the most promising directions in cancer diagnosis. The major challenge in such an approach is how to identify the tiny amount of tumor DNAs out of total cell-free DNAs in blood. Here we propose an ultrasensitive cancer detection method, termed 'CancerDetector', using the DNA methylation profiles of cell-free DNAs. The key of our method is to probabilistically model the joint methylation states of multiple adjacent CpG sites on an individual sequencing read, in order to exploit the pervasive nature of DNA methylation for signal amplification...
June 12, 2018: Nucleic Acids Research
Marco Ewerton, David Rother, Jakob Weimar, Gerrit Kollegger, Josef Wiemeyer, Jan Peters, Guilherme Maeda
In the practice of motor skills in general, errors in the execution of movements may go unnoticed when a human instructor is not available. In this case, a computer system or robotic device able to detect movement errors and propose corrections would be of great help. This paper addresses the problem of how to detect such execution errors and how to provide feedback to the human to correct his/her motor skill using a general, principled methodology based on imitation learning. The core idea is to compare the observed skill with a probabilistic model learned from expert demonstrations...
2018: Frontiers in Neurorobotics
Elena Garcia-Hidalgo, Dovilé Schneider, Natalie von Goetz, Christiaan Delmaar, Michael Siegrist, Konrad Hungerbühler
Consumers regularly use household care and personal care products (HC&PCPs). Isothiazolinones are included in HC&PCPs as preservatives and are being held responsible for an epidemic rise in allergic contact dermatitis (ACD). The objective of this study was to assess the origin and extent of dermal exposure in order to evaluate the risk of ACD from isothiazolinones in HC&PCP. Individual-based aggregate dermal exposure to four isothiazolinones was estimated using the newly proposed Probabilistic Aggregated Consumer Exposure Model-Kinetic, Dermal (PACEM-KD) by combining the reported individual use patterns for HC&PCP in Switzerland (N = 669 (558 adults), ages 0-91) with isothiazolinone concentrations measured in products used by the individual person...
June 9, 2018: Environment International
Wolfgang G Kunz, Myriam G Hunink, Konstantinos Dimitriadis, Thomas Huber, Franziska Dorn, Felix G Meinel, Bastian O Sabel, Ahmed E Othman, Maximilian F Reiser, Birgit Ertl-Wagner, Wieland H Sommer, Kolja M Thierfelder
Purpose To determine the impact of patient age on the cost-effectiveness of endovascular therapy (EVT) in addition to standard care (SC) in large-vessel-occlusion stroke for patients aged 50 to 100 years in the United States. Materials and Methods A decision-analytic Markov model was used to estimate direct and indirect lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Age-dependent input parameters were obtained from the literature. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis for age at index stroke were used...
June 12, 2018: Radiology
Helena Hiemisch Lobo Borba, Laiza Maria Steimbach, Bruno Salgado Riveros, Fernanda Stumpf Tonin, Vinicius Lins Ferreira, Bruna Aline de Queiros Bagatim, Gisele Balan, Roberto Pontarolo, Astrid Wiens
BACKGROUND: Amphotericin formulations, indicated for invasive fungal infections (IFIs), vary in effectiveness, safety and costs. In Brazil, only the conventional formulation is provided by the Public Health System. OBJECTIVES: To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing conventional amphotericin B (CAB), liposomal amphotericin B (LAB) and amphotericin B lipid complex (ABLC). METHODS: A decision tree was developed. The model began with high-risking patients on suspicion or confirmation of IFI...
June 12, 2018: Mycoses
Lingyan Zhang, Zhao Zhang, Tao Ye, Maigeng Zhou, Chenzhi Wang, Peng Yin, Bin Hou
BACKGROUND: Many studies have reported an increased mortality risk from heat waves comparing with non-heat wave days. However, how much the mortality rate change with the heat intensity-vulnerability curve-is still unknown. Such unknown information makes the related managers impossible to assess scientifically life losses from heat waves, consequently fail in conducting suitable integrated risk management measures. METHODS: We used the heat wave intensity index (HWII) to characterize quantitatively the heat waves, then applied a distributed lag non-linear model to explore the area-specific definition of heat wave, and developed the vulnerability models on the relationships between HWII and mortality by age and by area...
June 11, 2018: Environmental Health: a Global Access Science Source
Chadi Saad, Laurent Noé, Hugues Richard, Julie Leclerc, Marie-Pierre Buisine, Hélène Touzet, Martin Figeac
BACKGROUND: Discovering over-represented approximate motifs in DNA sequences is an essential part of bioinformatics. This topic has been studied extensively because of the increasing number of potential applications. However, it remains a difficult challenge, especially with the huge quantity of data generated by high throughput sequencing technologies. To overcome this problem, existing tools use greedy algorithms and probabilistic approaches to find motifs in reasonable time. Nevertheless these approaches lack sensitivity and have difficulties coping with rare and subtle motifs...
June 11, 2018: BMC Bioinformatics
Giuseppina Rizzo, Demetrio Milardi, Salvatore Bertino, Gianpaolo Antonio Basile, Debora Di Mauro, Alessandro Calamuneri, Gaetana Chillemi, Giuseppe Silvestri, Giuseppe Anastasi, Alessia Bramanti, Alberto Cacciola
The amygdala plays a key role in gathering social cues to context-appropriate responses that require refined motor behaviour, involving either direct or indirect connections with sensorimotor-related areas. Although, several studies investigated the structural and functional limbic connectivity of the amygdala both in animals and in humans, less is known about the limbic modulation on sensorimotor-related areas. However, recent evidences suggest the amygdala as a possible cornerstone in the limbic-motor interface...
June 8, 2018: Neuroscience
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