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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28738517/modelling-long-term-impacts-of-changes-in-climate-nitrogen-deposition-and-ozone-exposure-on-carbon-sequestration-of-european-forest-ecosystems
#1
Wim de Vries, Maximilian Posch, David Simpson, Gert Jan Reinds
We modelled the effects of past and expected future changes in climate (temperature, precipitation), CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition (N) and ozone (O3) exposure (phytotoxic ozone dose, POD) on carbon (C) sequestration by European forest ecosystems for the period 1900-2050. Tree C sequestration was assessed by using empirical response functions, while soil C sequestration was simulated with the process-based model VSD, combined with the RothC model. We evaluated two empirical growth responses to N deposition (linear and non-linear) and two O3 exposure relationships (linear function with total biomass or net annual increment)...
July 19, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28738137/public-health-and-economic-consequences-of-vaccine-hesitancy-for-measles-in-the-united-states
#2
Nathan C Lo, Peter J Hotez
Importance: Routine childhood vaccination is declining in some regions of the United States due to vaccine hesitancy, which risks the resurgence of many infectious diseases with public health and economic consequences. There are ongoing policy debates on the state and national level, including legislation around nonmedical (personal-belief) exemptions for childhood vaccination and possibly a special government commission on vaccine safety, which may affect vaccine coverage. Objective: To estimate the number of measles cases in US children and the associated economic costs under scenarios of different levels of vaccine hesitancy, using the case example of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination and measles...
July 24, 2017: JAMA Pediatrics
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28735210/moisture-content-prediction-in-poultry-litter-using-artificial-intelligence-techniques-and-monte-carlo-simulation-to-determine-the-economic-yield-from-energy-use
#3
José Octavio Rico-Contreras, Alberto Alfonso Aguilar-Lasserre, Juan Manuel Méndez-Contreras, Jhony Josué López-Andrés, Gabriela Cid-Chama
The objective of this study is to determine the economic return of poultry litter combustion in boilers to produce bioenergy (thermal and electrical), as this biomass has a high-energy potential due to its component elements, using fuzzy logic to predict moisture and identify the high-impact variables. This is carried out using a proposed 7-stage methodology, which includes a statistical analysis of agricultural systems and practices to identify activities contributing to moisture in poultry litter (for example, broiler chicken management, number of air extractors, and avian population density), and thereby reduce moisture to increase the yield of the combustion process...
July 20, 2017: Journal of Environmental Management
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28734110/when-can-refuges-mediate-the-genetic-effects-of-fire-regimes-a-simulation-study-of-the-effects-of-topography-and-weather-on-neutral-and-adaptive-genetic-diversity-in-fire-prone-landscapes
#4
Sam C Banks, Ian D Davies, Geoffrey J Cary
Understanding how landscape heterogeneity mediates the effects of fire on biodiversity is increasingly important under global changes in fire regimes. We used a simulation experiment to investigate how fire regimes interact with topography and weather to shape neutral and selection-driven genetic diversity under alternative dispersal scenarios, and to explore the conditions under which micro-refuges can maintain genetic diversity of populations exposed to recurrent fire. Spatial heterogeneity in simulated fire frequency occurred in topographically-complex landscapes, with fire refuges and fire-prone 'hotspots' apparent...
July 22, 2017: Molecular Ecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28734092/disentangling-the-role-of-seed-bank-and-dispersal-in-plant-metapopulation-dynamics-using-patch-occupancy-surveys
#5
F Manna, R Pradel, R Choquet, H Fréville, P-O Cheptou
In plants, the presence of a seed bank challenges the application of classical metapopulation models to above-ground presence surveys; ignoring seed bank leads to overestimated extinction and colonization rates. In this article, we explore the possibility to detect seed bank using hidden Markov models in the analysis of above-ground patch occupancy surveys of an annual plant with limited dispersal. Patch occupancy data were generated by simulation under two metapopulation sizes (N = 200 and N = 1000 patches) and different metapopulation scenarios, each scenario being a combination of the presence/absence of a one-year seed bank and the presence/absence of limited dispersal in a circular 1-dimension configuration of patches...
July 22, 2017: Ecology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28733923/cardiovascular-mechanics-in-the-early-stages-of-pulmonary-hypertension-a-computational-study
#6
Sebastián Acosta, Charles Puelz, Béatrice Rivière, Daniel J Penny, Ken M Brady, Craig G Rusin
We formulate and study a new mathematical model of pulmonary hypertension. Based on principles of fluid and elastic dynamics, we introduce a model that quantifies the stiffening of pulmonary vasculature (arteries and arterioles) to reproduce the hemodynamics of the pulmonary system, including physiologically consistent dependence between compliance and resistance. This pulmonary model is embedded in a closed-loop network of the major vessels in the body, approximated as one-dimensional elastic tubes, and zero-dimensional models for the heart and other organs...
July 21, 2017: Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28733190/reference-interval-estimation-methodological-comparison-using-extensive-simulations-and-empirical-data
#7
Caitlin H Daly, Victoria Higgins, Khosrow Adeli, Vijay L Grey, Jemila S Hamid
OBJECTIVE: To statistically compare and evaluate commonly used methods of estimating reference intervals and to determine which method is best based on characteristics of the distribution of various datasets. DESIGN AND METHODS: Three approaches for estimating reference intervals, i.e. parametric, non-parametric, and robust, were compared with simulated Gaussian and non-Gaussian data. The hierarchy of the performances of each method was examined based on bias and measures of precision...
July 18, 2017: Clinical Biochemistry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28733060/developing-a-canadian-curriculum-for-simulation-based-education-in-obstetrics-and-gynecology-a-delphi-study
#8
Catherine Craig, Glenn D Posner
OBJECTIVE: As obstetrics and gynaecology (Ob/Gyn) residency training programs move towards a competence-based approach to training and assessment, the development of a national standardized simulation curriculum is essential. The primary goal of this study was to define the fundamental content for the Canadian Obstetrics and Gynecology Simulation curriculum. METHODS: A modified Delphi technique was used to achieve consensus in three rounds by surveying residency program directors or their local simulation educator delegates in 16 accredited Canadian Ob/Gyn residency programs...
July 18, 2017: Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Canada: JOGC, Journal D'obstétrique et Gynécologie du Canada: JOGC
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28732398/simulation-of-targeted-pollutant-mitigation-strategies-to-reduce-nitrate-and-sediment-hotspots-in-agricultural-watershed
#9
Awoke Dagnew Teshager, Philip W Gassman, Silvia Secchi, Justin T Schoof
About 50% of U.S. water pollution problems are caused by non-point source (NPS) pollution, primarily sediment and nutrients from agricultural areas, despite the widespread implementation of agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs). However, the effectiveness of implementation strategies and type of BMPs at watershed scale are still not well understood. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) ecohydrological model was used to assess the effectiveness of pollutant mitigation strategies in the Raccoon River watershed (RRW) in west-central Iowa, USA...
July 17, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28731928/serious-game-versus-online-course-for-pretraining-medical-students-before-a-simulation-based-mastery-learning-course-on-cardiopulmonary-resuscitation-a-randomised-controlled-study
#10
David Drummond, Paul Delval, Sonia Abdenouri, Jennifer Truchot, Pierre-François Ceccaldi, Patrick Plaisance, Alice Hadchouel, Antoine Tesnière
BACKGROUND: Although both recorded lectures and serious games have been used to pretrain health professionals before simulation training on cardiopulmonary resuscitation, they have never been compared. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare an online course and a serious game for pretraining medical students before simulation-based mastery learning on the management of sudden cardiac arrest. DESIGN: A randomised controlled trial. Participants were pretrained using the online course or the serious game on day 1 and day 7...
July 20, 2017: European Journal of Anaesthesiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28731514/with-or-without-you-effects-of-the-concurrent-range-expansion-of-an-herbivore-and-its-natural-enemy-on-native-species-interactions
#11
David Carrasco, Gaylord A Desurmont, Diane Laplanche, Magali Proffit, Rieta Gols, Paul G Becher, Mattias C Larsson, Ted C J Turlings, Peter Anderson
Global climatic changes may lead to the arrival of multiple range-expanding species from different trophic levels into new habitats, either simultaneously or in quick succession, potentially causing the introduction of manifold novel interactions into native food webs. Unraveling the complex biotic interactions between native and range-expanding species is critical to understand the impact of climate change on community ecology, but experimental evidence is lacking. In a series of laboratory experiments that simulated direct and indirect species interactions, we investigated the effects of the concurrent arrival of a range-expanding insect herbivore in Europe, Spodoptera littoralis, and its associated parasitoid Microplitis rufiventris, on the native herbivore Mamestra brassicae, and its associated parasitoid M...
July 21, 2017: Global Change Biology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28729953/demographic-inference-through-approximate-bayesian-computation-skyline-plots
#12
Miguel Navascués, Raphaël Leblois, Concetta Burgarella
The skyline plot is a graphical representation of historical effective population sizes as a function of time. Past population sizes for these plots are estimated from genetic data, without a priori assumptions on the mathematical function defining the shape of the demographic trajectory. Because of this flexibility in shape, skyline plots can, in principle, provide realistic descriptions of the complex demographic scenarios that occur in natural populations. Currently, demographic estimates needed for skyline plots are estimated using coalescent samplers or a composite likelihood approach...
2017: PeerJ
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28728594/implementing-the-efftox-dose-finding-design-in-the-matchpoint-trial
#13
Kristian Brock, Lucinda Billingham, Mhairi Copland, Shamyla Siddique, Mirjana Sirovica, Christina Yap
BACKGROUND: The Matchpoint trial aims to identify the optimal dose of ponatinib to give with conventional chemotherapy consisting of fludarabine, cytarabine and idarubicin to chronic myeloid leukaemia patients in blastic transformation phase. The dose should be both tolerable and efficacious. This paper describes our experience implementing EffTox in the Matchpoint trial. METHODS: EffTox is a Bayesian adaptive dose-finding trial design that jointly scrutinises binary efficacy and toxicity outcomes...
July 20, 2017: BMC Medical Research Methodology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28728001/modeling-the-effect-of-temperature-control-curtain-on-the-thermal-structure-in-a-deep-stratified-reservoir
#14
Wei He, Jijian Lian, Ye Yao, Mudan Wu, Chao Ma
Temperature-control curtain (TCC) is an effective facility of selective withdrawal. Previous research has estimated the influence of TCC on the outflow temperature, but its effect on the thermal structure of a reservoir area is unknown, which is crucial to the reservoir ecology. For this purpose, taking the Sanbanxi Reservoir as a case study, a 2-D hydrodynamic and temperature model covering the whole reservoir was built and calibrated to simulate the flow and temperature fields under different TCC scenarios, and the change rules of thermal stability and outflow temperature are obtained...
July 17, 2017: Journal of Environmental Management
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28727944/computer-based-case-simulations-for-assessment-in-health-care-a-literature-review-of-validity-evidence
#15
Robyn C Ward, Timothy J Muckle, Michael J Kremer, Mary Anne Krogh
Simulation for education and training in health-care professions has been widely applied. However, its value as an assessment tool for competence is not fully known. Logistical barriers of simulation-based assessments have led some health-care organizations to utilize computer-based case simulations (CCSs) for assessment. This article provides a review of the literature on the identification of psychometrically sound, CCS instruments designed to measure decision-making competence in health-care professionals...
January 1, 2017: Evaluation & the Health Professions
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28727171/modelling-chemical-accumulation-in-sediment-of-small-water-bodies-accounting-for-sediment-transport-and-water-sediment-exchange-processes-over-long-periods
#16
David Albert Patterson, Alexander-Christian Strehmel, Beate Erzgräber, Klaus Hammel
In a recent scientific opinion of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) it is argued that the accumulation of plant protection products (PPP) in sediments over long time periods may be an environmentally significant process. Therefore, EFSA proposed a calculation to account for PPP accumulation. This calculation, however, considers PPP degradation within sediment as the only dissipation route, and does not account for sediment dynamics or back-diffusion into the water column. The hydraulic model HEC-RAS was parameterized to assess sediment transport and deposition dynamics within FOCUS scenarios in simulations spanning 20 years...
July 20, 2017: Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28727069/system-dynamics-modeling-in-designing-breeding-schemes-the-case-of-menz-sheep-in-ethiopian-highlands
#17
K T Gebre, M Wurzinger, S Gizaw, A Haile, B Rischkowsky, T Getachew, J Sölkner
A comprehensive dynamic simulation model was developed to describe a community-based breeding program for the Menz sheep population of Ethiopia. Selection of male and female animals based on their own and maternal performance was simulated. The breeding goal traits were 6-mo weight, preweaning survival, and fertility rate. The model input data were obtained from the flock book, questionnaires, and references. The simulation model used a mix of deterministic and stochastic procedures to model the complex system...
June 2017: Journal of Animal Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28726996/direct-multitrait-selection-realizes-the-highest-genetic-response-for-ratio-traits
#18
L Zetouni, M Henryon, M Kargo, J Lassen
For a number of traits the phenotype considered to be the goal trait is a combination of 2 or more traits, like methane (CH) emission (CH/kg of milk). Direct selection on CH4 emission defined as a ratio is problematic, because it is uncertain whether the improvement comes from an improvement in milk yield, a decrease in CH emission or both. The goal was to test different strategies on selecting for 2 antagonistic traits- improving milk yield while decreasing methane emissions. The hypothesis was that to maximize genetic gain for a ratio trait, the best approach is to select directly for the component traits rather than using a ratio trait or a trait where 1 trait is corrected for the other as the selection criteria...
May 2017: Journal of Animal Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28726989/economic-selection-index-development-for-beefmaster-cattle-ii-general-purpose-breeding-objective
#19
K P Ochsner, M D MacNeil, R M Lewis, M L Spangler
An economic selection index was developed for Beefmaster cattle in a general-purpose production system in which bulls are mated to a combination of heifers and mature cows, with resulting progeny retained as replacements or sold at weaning. National average prices from 2010 to 2014 were used to establish income and expenses for the system. Genetic parameters were obtained from the literature. Economic values were estimated by simulating 100,000 animals and approximating the partial derivatives of the profit function by perturbing traits 1 at a time, by 1 unit, while holding the other traits constant at their respective means...
May 2017: Journal of Animal Science
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28725643/crisis-team-management-in-a-scarce-resource-setting-angkor-hospital-for-children-in-siem-reap-cambodia
#20
Richard Alynn Henker, Hiroko Henker, Hor Eng, John O'Donnell, Tachawan Jirativanont
INTRODUCTION: A crisis team management (CTM) simulation course was developed by volunteers from Health Volunteers Overseas for physicians and nurses at Angkor Hospital for Children (AHC) in Siem Reap, Cambodia. The framework for the course was adapted from crisis resource management (1, 2), crisis team training (3), and TeamSTEPPs© models (4). The CTM course focused on teaching physicians and nurses on the development of team performance knowledge, skills, and attitudes. Challenges to providing this course at AHC included availability of simulation equipment, cultural differences in learning, and language barriers...
2017: Frontiers in Public Health
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