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V Stránský, L Thinová
In the year 2010 a continual radon measurement was established at Mladeč Caves in the Czech Republic using a continual radon monitor RADIM3A. In order to model radon time series in the years 2010-15, the Box-Jenkins Methodology, often used in econometrics, was applied. Because of the behavior of radon concentrations (RCs), a seasonal integrated, autoregressive moving averages model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) has been chosen to model the measured time series. This model uses the time series seasonality, previously acquired values and delayed atmospheric parameters, to forecast RC...
October 13, 2017: Radiation Protection Dosimetry
Sihan Xiong, Yiwei Fu, Asok Ray
This paper proposes a Bayesian nonparametric regression model of panel data for sequential pattern classification. The proposed method provides a flexible and parsimonious model that allows both time-independent spatial variables and time-dependent exogenous variables to be predictors. Not only this method improves the accuracy of parameter estimation for limited data, but also it facilitates model interpretation by identifying statistically significant predictors with hypothesis testing. Moreover, as the data length approaches infinity, posterior consistency of the model is guaranteed for general data-generating processes under regular conditions...
October 12, 2017: IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems
Luca Pieroni, Luca Salmasi
In this paper, we investigate the extent to which the economic outcomes of restaurants, bars, and cafés have been affected by the introduction of anti-smoking regulations in Europe. We use an unexploited panel database to collect a comprehensive set of information on financial indicators regarding the balance sheets of private and public companies in various economic sectors. The results show that smoke-free policies did not significantly affect the firms' economic performance, irrespective of the balance sheet indicators analyzed...
2017: Journal of Policy Analysis and Management
Melike Bildirici, Özgür Ömer Ersin
The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between analyzed variables. The STARDL method allows modeling and testing nonlinearity in the short-run and long-run parameters or both in the short- and long-run relations...
October 5, 2017: Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
James W Williams, Nikolai M Cook
One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security...
October 2016: Social Studies of Science
Daniel P McMillen, Elizabeth T Powers
Although the literature suggests that nursing home location is instrumental to the efficient functioning of the long-term care industry, there has been little research directly focused on the spatial distribution of nursing homes. We discuss factors that may influence nursing home location choice, emphasizing agglomeration economies around hospitals. We estimate econometric models of location using information on all freestanding, MediCal-licensed long-term care facilities in the state of California. We find that nursing homes are more likely to locate in the same Census tract as a hospital and are more likely to locate in tracts nearer to those containing a hospital...
September 2017: Health Economics
Francesco Longo, Luigi Siciliani, Hugh Gravelle, Rita Santos
We investigate whether hospitals in the English National Health Service change their quality or efficiency in response to changes in quality or efficiency of neighbouring hospitals. We first provide a theoretical model that predicts that a hospital will not respond to changes in the efficiency of its rivals but may change its quality or efficiency in response to changes in the quality of rivals, though the direction of the response is ambiguous. We use data on eight quality measures (including mortality, emergency readmissions, patient reported outcome, and patient satisfaction) and six efficiency measures (including bed occupancy, cancelled operations, and costs) for public hospitals between 2010/11 and 2013/14 to estimate both spatial cross-sectional and spatial fixed- and random-effects panel data models...
September 2017: Health Economics
Matteo Lippi Bruni, Irene Mammi
We use spatial econometric methods to analyse spillovers in hospital expenditures across Health Districts of the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy). We estimate spatial models that allow for global spillovers and distinguish between the expenditures associated with potentially inappropriate hospitalizations and those associated with complex medical procedures. We also investigate the relative contribution of geographical and institutional proximity in explaining spatial dependence, by explicitly modelling different connectivity structures and exploiting them to build alternative spatial weight matrices...
September 2017: Health Economics
Arjunan Subramanian, Parmod Kumar
Whether raising the price of addictive goods can reduce its burden is widely debated in many countries, largely due to lack of appropriate data and robust methods. Three key concerns frequently raised in the literature are: unobserved heterogeneity; omitted variables; identification problem. Addressing these concerns, using robust instrument and employing unique individual-level panel data from Indian Punjab, this paper investigates two related propositions (i) will increase in alcohol price reduce its burden (ii) since greater incomes raise the costs of inebriation, will higher incomes affect consumption of alcohol negatively...
August 24, 2017: Social Science & Medicine
Qianqian Liu, Shaojian Wang, Wenzhong Zhang, Dongsheng Zhan, Jiaming Li
Environmental pollution has aroused extensive concern worldwide. Existing literature on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and environmental pollution has, however, seldom taken into account spatial effects. Addressing this gap, this paper investigated the spatial agglomeration effects and dynamics at work in FDI and environmental pollution (namely, in waste soot and dust, sulfur dioxide, and wastewater) in 285 Chinese cities during the period 2003-2014, using global and local measures of spatial autocorrelation...
September 15, 2017: Science of the Total Environment
Shaun T O'Keeffe
OBJECTIVE: Studies that examined Internet searches for restless legs and leg cramps have found a strong seasonal effect with peaks in summer and troughs in winter months. The present study used an econometric approach to examine the seasonality of such searches in greater detail. METHODS: Monthly relative search volumes for 'restless legs' and 'leg cramps' from 2004 to March 2017 in the United Kingdom (UK) and Australia were obtained from Google Trends. Average percentage change from winter to summer months was examined...
September 2017: Sleep Medicine
Yan Feng, Nancy J Devlin, Koonal K Shah, Brendan Mulhern, Ben van Hout
Value sets for the EQ-5D-5L are required to facilitate its use in estimating quality-adjusted life years. An international protocol has been developed to guide the collection of stated preference data for this purpose and has been used to generate EQ-5D-5L valuation data for England. The aim of this paper is report the innovative methods used for modelling those data to obtain a value set. Nine hundred and ninety-six members of the English general public completed time trade-off (TTO) and discrete choice experiment (DCE) tasks...
August 18, 2017: Health Economics
Jason Nassios, James A Giesecke
Economic consequence analysis is one of many inputs to terrorism contingency planning. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are being used more frequently in these analyses, in part because of their capacity to accommodate high levels of event-specific detail. In modeling the potential economic effects of a hypothetical terrorist event, two broad sets of shocks are required: (1) physical impacts on observable variables (e.g., asset damage); (2) behavioral impacts on unobservable variables (e.g., investor uncertainty)...
August 17, 2017: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Jørgen Dejgård Jensen, Iben Sommer
BACKGROUND: Food product reformulation is seen as one among several tools to promote healthier eating. Reformulating the recipe for a processed food, e.g. reducing the fat, sugar or salt content of the foods, or increasing the content of whole-grains, can help the consumers to pursue a healthier life style. In this study, we evaluate the effects on calorie sales of a 'silent' reformulation strategy, where a retail chain's private-label brands are reformulated to a lower energy density without making specific claims on the product...
August 23, 2017: International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity
Marco Roccetti, Gustavo Marfia, Paola Salomoni, Catia Prandi, Rocco Maurizio Zagari, Faustine Linda Gningaye Kengni, Franco Bazzoli, Marco Montagnani
BACKGROUND: Data concerning patients originates from a variety of sources on social media. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to show how methodologies borrowed from different areas including computer science, econometrics, statistics, data mining, and sociology may be used to analyze Facebook data to investigate the patients' perspectives on a given medical prescription. METHODS: To shed light on patients' behavior and concerns, we focused on Crohn's disease, a chronic inflammatory bowel disease, and the specific therapy with the biological drug Infliximab...
August 9, 2017: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Scott Telfer, Nick Obradovich
Weather conditions are commonly believed to influence musculoskeletal pain, however the evidence for this is mixed. This study aimed to examine the relationship between local meteorological conditions and online search trends for terms related to knee pain, hip pain, and arthritis. Five years of relative online search volumes for these terms were obtained for the 50 most populous cities in the contiguous United States, along with corresponding local weather data for temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and precipitation...
2017: PloS One
Rui Li, Junlin Li, Lulu Cui, Yu Wu, Hongbo Fu, Jianmin Chen, Mindong Chen
China has become the largest coal consumer and important emitter of trace metals in the world. A multiple-year inventory of atmospheric copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) emissions from coal combustion in 30 provinces of China and 4 economic sectors (power plant, industry sector, residential sector, and others) for the period of 1995-2014 has been calculated. The results indicated that the total emissions of Cu and Zn increased from 5137.70 t and 11484.16 t in 1995-7099.24 t and 14536.61 t in 2014, at an annual average growth rate of 1...
October 2017: Environmental Pollution
William Greene, Mark N Harris, Preety Srivastava, Xueyan Zhao
When modelling "social bads," such as illegal drug consumption, researchers are often faced with a dependent variable characterised by a large number of zero observations. Building on the recent literature on hurdle and double-hurdle models, we propose a double-inflated modelling framework, where the zero observations are allowed to come from the following: nonparticipants; participant misreporters (who have larger loss functions associated with a truthful response); and infrequent consumers. Due to our empirical application, the model is derived for the case of an ordered discrete-dependent variable...
August 4, 2017: Health Economics
Tingting Yao, Michael K Ong, Wendy Max, Courtney Keeler, Yingning Wang, Valerie B Yerger, Hai-Yen Sung
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of cigarette prices on adult smoking for four US racial/ethnic groups: whites, African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics. METHODS: We analysed pooled cross-sectional data from the 2006/2007 and 2010/2011 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (n=339 921 adults aged 18+) and cigarette price data from the Tax Burden on Tobacco. Using a two-part econometric model of cigarette demand that controlled for sociodemographic characteristics, state-level antismoking sentiment, local-level smoke-free air laws and monthly indicator, we estimated for each racial/ethnic group the price elasticities of smoking participation, smoking intensity and total demand for cigarettes...
July 26, 2017: Tobacco Control
Josefine Persson, Lars-Åke Levin, Lukas Holmegaard, Petra Redfors, Katarina Jood, Christina Jern, Christian Blomstrand, Gunilla Forsberg-Wärleby
BACKGROUND: Healthcare interventions that have positive effects on the stroke survivors' health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) might also have positive effects for their spouses in terms of improved HRQoL and/or reduced spousal informal support. However, knowledge about stroke survivors' HRQoL and QALY and the consequences for their spouses' HRQoL and QALY is limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe the HRQoL and QALY-weights in dyads of stroke survivors in comparison with dyads of healthy controls, and to study the relationship between the stroke survivors' QALY-weights and consequences for spouses in terms of QALY-weight and annual cost of informal support, using a long-term perspective...
July 25, 2017: Health and Quality of Life Outcomes
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