pandemic planning

Cancer has become a global pandemic with disproportionately higher mortality rates in low- and middle- income countries, where a large fraction of patients present in advanced stages and in need of end-of-life care. Globally, the number of adults needing end-of-life care is greater than 19 million, and up to 78% of these patients are living in low- and middle- income countries. In the Americas alone, more than one million people are in need of end-of-life care, placing an enormous burden on local health systems, which are often unprepared to meet the challenge presented by this complex patient population...

The emergence of influenza drug resistance has become of particular interest as current planning for an influenza pandemic involves using massive amounts of antiviral drugs. We use semi-stochastic simulations to examine the emergence of drug resistant mutants during the course of a single infection within a patient in the presence and absence of antiviral therapy. We specifically examine three factors and their effect on the emergence of drug-resistant mutants: antiviral mechanism, the immune response, and surface proteins...

To be able to curb the global pandemic of physical inactivity and the associated 5.3 million deaths per year, we need to understand the basic principles that govern physical activity. However, there is a lack of large-scale measurements of physical activity patterns across free-living populations worldwide. Here we leverage the wide usage of smartphones with built-in accelerometry to measure physical activity at the global scale. We study a dataset consisting of 68 million days of physical activity for 717,527 people, giving us a window into activity in 111 countries across the globe...

African large mammals are under extreme pressure from unsustainable hunting and habitat loss. Certain traits make large mammals particularly vulnerable. These include late age at first reproduction, long inter-birth intervals, and low population density. Great apes are a prime example of such vulnerability, exhibiting all of these traits. Here we assess the rate of population change for the western chimpanzee, Pan troglodytes verus, over a 24-year period. As a proxy for change in abundance, we used transect nest count data from 20 different sites archived in the IUCN SSC A...

BACKGROUND: Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations. OBJECTIVE: To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level...

BACKGROUND: A novel influenza virus has emerged to produce a global pandemic four times in the past one hundred years, resulting in millions of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. There is substantial uncertainty about when, where and how the next influenza pandemic will occur. METHODS: We developed a novel mathematical model to chart the evolution of an influenza pandemic. We estimate the likely burden of future influenza pandemics through health and economic endpoints...

BACKGROUND: School closure is one of the primary measures considered during severe influenza pandemics and other emergencies. However, prolonged school closures may cause unintended adverse consequences to schools, students, and their families. A better understanding of these consequences will inform prepandemic planning, and help public health and education authorities in making informed decisions when considering school closures. METHODS: We conducted a household survey and interviewed school officials following an 8-day long closure of a school district in rural Illinois...

BACKGROUND: In Burkina Faso, malaria remains the primary cause of healthcare use, morbidity and child mortality. Therefore, efforts are needed to support the knowledge transfer and application of the results of numerous studies to better formulate and implement programs in the fight against the malaria pandemic. To this end, a 2-day dissemination workshop was held to share the most recent results produced by a multidisciplinary research team. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the workshop and the policy briefs distributed there, the effects these produced on research results use and the processes that facilitated, or not, the application of the knowledge transmitted...

BACKGROUND: The Global Observatory for Physical Activity-GoPA! was launched in response to the physical inactivity pandemic. The aim of this article is to present current information about surveillance, policy, and research on physical activity (PA) and health worldwide. METHODS: Information was collected for 217 countries. For 139 of these nations we identified a contact who confirmed information's accuracy and completeness. Associations were calculated among surveillance, policy and research categories...

Background: We examined associations between SNPs (single-nucleotide-polymorphisms) of IFITM3, TLR3, and CD55 genes and influenza clinical outcomes in Chinese patients. Methods: A multicenter-study was conducted on 275 adult cases of prospectively-diagnosed H7N9 and H1N1pdm09 infections. Host DNA was extracted from diagnostic respiratory samples; IFITM3 rs12252, TLR3 rs5743313, CD55 rs2564978, and TLR4 rs4986790/4986791 were targeted for genotyping by Sanger-sequencing...

The first human H5N1 case was diagnosed in Hong Kong in 1997. Since then, experience in effective preparedness strategies that target novel influenza viruses has expanded. Here, we report on avian influenza preparedness in public hospitals in Hong Kong to illustrate policies and practices associated with control of emerging infectious diseases. The Hong Kong government's risk-based preparedness plan for influenza pandemics includes 3 response levels for command, control, and coordination frameworks for territory-wide responses...

BACKGROUND: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a serious acute demyelinating disease that causes weakness and paralysis. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) began collaborating with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to develop near real-time vaccine safety surveillance capabilities in 2006 and has been monitoring for the risk of GBS after influenza vaccination for every influenza season since 2008. METHODS: We present results from the 2010/11 to 2013/14 influenza seasons using the Updating Sequential Probability Ratio Test (USPRT), with an overall 1-sided α of 0...

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in general poses a threat to the sustainability of modern healthcare, but a particularly urgent and serious threat is posed by a specific group of antibiotic-resistant bacteria known as carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE). CPE are resistant to nearly all antibiotics and include common pathogens such as Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. In New Zealand, the incidence of CPE has increased from three isolates in 2012 to 45 in 2016. The current epidemiology of CPE in New Zealand has similarities with the extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE) epidemic in the early 2000s (just before ESBL-PE underwent a non-linear increase in incidence)...

When a novel influenza A virus with pandemic potential emerges, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) often are the most readily available interventions to help slow transmission of the virus in communities, which is especially important before a pandemic vaccine becomes widely available. NPIs, also known as community mitigation measures, are actions that persons and communities can take to help slow the spread of respiratory virus infections, including seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses.These guidelines replace the 2007 Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States - Early, Targeted, Layered Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (https://stacks...

H7N3 and H7N7 are highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses and have posed a great threat not only for the poultry industry but for the human health as well. H7N9, a low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus, is also highly pathogenic to humans, and there is a great concern that these H7 subtypes would acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, thereby becoming a pandemic threat. A vaccine candidate covering all the three subtypes must, therefore, be an integral part of any pandemic preparedness plan...

The Communicable Disease Control Medical Network (CDCMN), established in 2003 after the SARS outbreak in Taiwan, has undergone several phases of modification in structure and activation. The main organizing principles of the CDCMN are centralized isolation of patients with severe highly infectious diseases and centralization of medical resources, as well as a network of designated regional hospitals like those in other countries. The CDCMN is made up of a command system, responding hospitals, and supporting hospitals...

OBJECTIVE: To establish seasonal and alert thresholds and transmission intensity categories for influenza to provide timely triggers for preventive measures or upscaling control measures in Cambodia. METHODS: Using Cambodia's influenza-like illness (ILI) and laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data from 2009 to 2015, three parameters were assessed to monitor influenza activity: the proportion of ILI patients among all outpatients, proportion of ILI samples positive for influenza and the product of the two...

INTRODUCTION: The experiences gained during the H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009/2010 could serve for a better planning and management of later outbreaks. AIM: The EU-sponsored TELL ME project aimed to provide evidence and develop models for improved risk communication during infectious disease crisis. Among its objectives was to develop original communication strategies regarding appropriate messages related to preventative behavior and advice based on uncertainties also addressing vaccine-resistant groups...

BACKGROUND: Influenza illnesses can result in missed days at work and societal costs, but influenza vaccination can reduce the risk of disease. Knowledge of vaccination coverage by industry and occupation can help guide prevention efforts and be useful during influenza pandemic planning. METHODS: Data from 21 states using the 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System industry-occupation module were analyzed. Influenza vaccination coverage was reported by select industry and occupation groups, including health care personnel (HCP) and other occupational groups who may have first priority to receive influenza vaccination during a pandemic (tier 1)...

Outbreaks of novel pathogens such as SARS, pandemic influenza and Ebola require substantial investments in reactive interventions, with consequent implementation plans sometimes revised on a weekly basis. Therefore, short-term forecasts of incidence are often of high priority. In light of the recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa, a forecasting exercise was convened by a network of infectious disease modellers. The challenge was to forecast unseen "future" simulated data for four different scenarios at five different time points...