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Infectious disease dynamics

Andrew F Brouwer, Nina B Masters, Joseph N S Eisenberg
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Waterborne enteric pathogens remain a global health threat. Increasingly, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and infectious disease transmission modeling (IDTM) are used to assess waterborne pathogen risks and evaluate mitigation. These modeling efforts, however, have largely been conducted independently for different purposes and in different settings. In this review, we examine the settings where each modeling strategy is employed. RECENT FINDINGS: QMRA research has focused on food contamination and recreational water in high-income countries (HICs) and drinking water and wastewater in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)...
April 20, 2018: Current Environmental Health Reports
Bruce Pell, Tin Phan, Erica M Rutter, Gerardo Chowell, Yang Kuang
The first few disease generations of an infectious disease outbreak is the most critical phase to implement control interventions. The lack of accurate data and information during the early transmission phase hinders the application of complex compartmental models to make predictions and forecasts about important epidemic quantities. Thus, simpler models are often times better tools to understand the early dynamics of an outbreak particularly in the context of limited data. In this paper we mechanistically derive and fit a family of logistic models to spatial-temporal data of the 1905 plague epidemic in Bombay, India...
April 16, 2018: Mathematical Biosciences
F Dumetz, B Cuypers, H Imamura, D Zander, E D'Haenens, I Maes, M A Domagalska, J Clos, J-C Dujardin, G De Muylder
Antimonials (Sb) were used for decades for chemotherapy of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Now abandoned in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) because of Leishmania donovani resistance, this drug offers a unique model for understanding drug resistance dynamics. In a previous phylogenomic study, we found two distinct populations of L. donovani : the core group (CG) in the Gangetic plains and ISC1 in the Nepalese highlands. Sb resistance was only encountered within the CG, and a series of potential markers were identified...
April 25, 2018: MSphere
Nicola De Maio, Colin J Worby, Daniel J Wilson, Nicole Stoesser
Pathogen genome sequencing can reveal details of transmission histories and is a powerful tool in the fight against infectious disease. In particular, within-host pathogen genomic variants identified through heterozygous nucleotide base calls are a potential source of information to identify linked cases and infer direction and time of transmission. However, using such data effectively to model disease transmission presents a number of challenges, including differentiating genuine variants from those observed due to sequencing error, as well as the specification of a realistic model for within-host pathogen population dynamics...
April 18, 2018: PLoS Computational Biology
Krista M English, Joanne M Langley, Allison McGeer, Nathaniel Hupert, Raymond Tellier, Bonnie Henry, Scott A Halperin, Lynn Johnston, Babak Pourbohloul
BACKGROUND: Nosocomial, or healthcare-associated infections (HAI), exact a high medical and financial toll on patients, healthcare workers, caretakers, and the health system. Interpersonal contact patterns play a large role in infectious disease spread, but little is known about the relationship between health care workers' (HCW) movements and contact patterns within a heath care facility and HAI. Quantitatively capturing these patterns will aid in understanding the dynamics of HAI and may lead to more targeted and effective control strategies in the hospital setting...
April 17, 2018: BMC Infectious Diseases
Miroslav Průcha, Roman Zazula, Stefan Russwurm
Sepsis is a multifactorial clinical syndrome with an extremely dynamic clinical course and with high diverse clinical phenotype. Early diagnosis is crucial for the final clinical outcome. Previous studies have not identified a biomarker for the diagnosis of sepsis which would have sufficient sensitivity and specificity. Identification of the infectious agents or the use of molecular biology, next gene sequencing, has not brought significant benefit for the patient in terms of early diagnosis. Therefore, we are currently searching for biomarkers, through "omics" technologies with sufficient diagnostic specificity and sensitivity, able to predict the clinical course of the disease and the patient response to therapy...
2018: Prague Medical Report
Timothy R Julian, Hasitha S K Vithanage, Min Li Chua, Matasaka Kuroda, Ana K Pitol, Pham Hong Lien Nguyen, Robert A Canales, Shigeo Fujii, Hidenori Harada
Infectious disease transmission is frequently mediated by the environment, where people's movements through and interactions with the environment dictate risks of infection and/or illness. Capturing these interactions, and quantifying their importance, offers important insights into effective interventions. In this study, we capture high time-resolution activity data for twenty-five Vietnamese farmers during collection and land application of human excreta for agriculture. Although human excreta use improves productivity, the use increases risks of enteric infections for both farmers and end users...
April 13, 2018: Science of the Total Environment
Sofía Grecco, Gregorio Iraola, Nicola Decaro, Alice Alfieri, Amauri Alfieri, Marina Gallo Calderón, Ana Paula da Silva, Daniela Name, Jaime Aldaz, Lucía Calleros, Ana Marandino, Gonzalo Tomás, Leticia Maya, Lourdes Francia, Yanina Panzera, Ruben Pérez
Canine parvovirus (CPV) is a fast-evolving single-stranded DNA virus that causes one of the most significant infectious diseases of dogs. Although the virus dispersed over long distances in the past, current populations are considered to be spatially confined and with only a few instances of migration between specific localities. It is unclear whether these dynamics occur in South America where global studies have not been performed. The aim of this study is to analyze the patterns of genetic variability in South American CPV populations and explore their evolutionary relationships with global strains...
January 2018: Virus Evolution
P van den Driessche, Abdul-Aziz Yakubu
We focus on discrete-time infectious disease models in populations that are governed by constant, geometric, Beverton-Holt or Ricker demographic equations, and give a method for computing the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. When [Formula: see text] and the demographic population dynamics are asymptotically constant or under geometric growth (non-oscillatory), we prove global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the disease models. Under the same demographic assumption, when [Formula: see text], we prove uniform persistence of the disease...
April 12, 2018: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Claire J Standley, Ellie Graeden, Justin Kerr, Erin M Sorrell, Rebecca Katz
Designing and implementing effective programs for infectious disease control requires complex decision-making, informed by an understanding of the diseases, the types of disease interventions and control measures available, and the disease-relevant characteristics of the local community. Though disease modeling frameworks have been developed to address these questions and support decision-making, the complexity of current models presents a significant barrier to on-the-ground end users. The picture is further complicated when considering approaches for integration of different disease control programs, where co-infection dynamics, treatment interactions, and other variables must also be taken into account...
April 2018: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
O le Polain de Waroux, S Cohuet, D Ndazima, A J Kucharski, A Juan-Giner, S Flasche, E Tumwesigye, R Arinaitwe, J Mwanga-Amumpaire, Y Boum, F Nackers, F Checchi, R F Grais, W J Edmunds
BACKGROUND: Quantification of human interactions relevant to infectious disease transmission through social contact is central to predict disease dynamics, yet data from low-resource settings remain scarce. METHODS: We undertook a social contact survey in rural Uganda, whereby participants were asked to recall details about the frequency, type, and socio-demographic characteristics of any conversational encounter that lasted for ≥5 min (henceforth defined as 'contacts') during the previous day...
April 11, 2018: BMC Infectious Diseases
Erinn Sanstead, Nicole E Basta, Karen Martin, Victor Cruz, Kristen Ehresmann, Shalini Kulasingam
Seroepidemiologic studies, which measure serum antibody levels produced in response to infection and/or vaccination, can be valuable tools for gaining insight into population level dynamics of infectious diseases. However, because seroepidemiologic studies are expensive and logistically challenging, they are not routinely conducted for surveillance purposes. We have identified a novel venue, state fairgrounds, in which annual sera samples from a population may be rapidly collected with minimal recruitment expenses...
April 7, 2018: Journal of Community Health
Thierry Hoch, Eric Breton, Zati Vatansever
Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever is a zoonotic disease which has emerged or re-emerged recently in Eastern Europe and Turkey. The causative agent is a virus, mainly transmitted by ticks of the species Hyalomma marginatum (Koch, 1844, Ixodida, Amblyommidae). To test potential scenarios for the control of pathogen spread, a dynamic mechanistic model has been developed that takes into account the major processes involved in tick population dynamics and pathogen spread. The tick population dynamics model represents both abiotic (meteorological variables) and biotic (hare and cattle densities) factors in the determination of processes (development, host finding, and mortality)...
March 29, 2018: Journal of Medical Entomology
Bin Zhu, Jinlin Liu, Yang Fu, Bo Zhang, Ying Mao
Viral hepatitis, as one of the most serious notifiable infectious diseases in China, takes heavy tolls from the infected and causes a severe economic burden to society, yet few studies have systematically explored the spatio-temporal epidemiology of viral hepatitis in China. This study aims to explore, visualize and compare the epidemiologic trends and spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis (A, B, C, E and unspecified, based on the classification of CDC) at the provincial level in China...
April 2, 2018: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Marcus Tullius Scotti, Mateus Feitosa Alves, Chonny Alexander Herrera-Acevedo, Luciana Scotti
Inflammation has been very evident in infectious diseases, but in recent times research has increasingly shown that a range of non-infectious diseases may present with inflammatory conditions. This fact becomes important as new anti-inflammatory drugs emerge with different targets for treatment of diseases. Virtual screening (VS) involves applying computational methods to discover new ligands for biological structures from the formation of large libraries composed of a large number of compounds. This review aims to report several studies employing a variety of VS: ligand-based and structure-based VS are being used more frequently in combination to decrease the probability of choosing false positive candidates...
April 3, 2018: Current Pharmaceutical Design
Jamie Voyles, Douglas C Woodhams, Veronica Saenz, Allison Q Byrne, Rachel Perez, Gabriela Rios-Sotelo, Mason J Ryan, Molly C Bletz, Florence Ann Sobell, Shawna McLetchie, Laura Reinert, Erica Bree Rosenblum, Louise A Rollins-Smith, Roberto Ibáñez, Julie M Ray, Edgardo J Griffith, Heidi Ross, Corinne L Richards-Zawacki
Infectious diseases rarely end in extinction. Yet the mechanisms that explain how epidemics subside are difficult to pinpoint. We investigated host-pathogen interactions after the emergence of a lethal fungal pathogen in a tropical amphibian assemblage. Some amphibian host species are recovering, but the pathogen is still present and is as pathogenic today as it was almost a decade ago. In addition, some species have defenses that are more effective now than they were before the epidemic. These results suggest that host recoveries are not caused by pathogen attenuation and may be due to shifts in host responses...
March 30, 2018: Science
Anuwat Wiratsudakul, Parinya Suparit, Charin Modchang
Background: The Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It was neglected until a major outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia, in 2007. Teratogenic effects resulting in microcephaly in newborn infants is the greatest public health threat. In 2016, the Zika virus epidemic was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Consequently, mathematical models were constructed to explicitly elucidate related transmission dynamics. Survey Methodology: In this review article, two steps of journal article searching were performed...
2018: PeerJ
Masaharu Iwasaki, Juan C de la Torre
Mammarenaviruses cause chronic infections in their natural rodent hosts. Infected rodents shed infectious virus into excreta. Humans are infected through mucosal exposure to aerosols or direct contact of abraded skin with fomites, resulting in a wide-range of manifestations from asymptomatic or mild febrile illness to severe life-threatening hemorrhagic fever. The mammarenavirus matrix Z protein has been shown to be a main driving force of virus budding and to act as a negative regulator of viral RNA synthesis...
March 28, 2018: Journal of Virology
David Kennedy, Greg Dwyer
Changes in pathogen genetic variation within hosts alter the severity and spread of infectious diseases, with important implications for clinical disease and public health. Genetic drift may play a strong role in shaping pathogen variation, but analyses of drift in pathogens have oversimplified pathogen population dynamics, either by considering dynamics only at a single scale-such as within hosts or between hosts-or by making drastic simplifying assumptions, for example, that host immune systems can be ignored or that transmission bottlenecks are complete...
March 28, 2018: PLoS Biology
G Laing, R Christley, A Stringer, N Aklilu, T Ashine, R Newton, A Radford, G Pinchbeck
BACKGROUND: Pathogens are frequently implicated in equine respiratory disease. In Ethiopia, respiratory disease is a frequent cause for presentation at veterinary clinics and a priority concern for users of working horses. However, there is little existing literature on possible aetiologies. OBJECTIVES: Determine prevalence of respiratory signs and exposure to major respiratory pathogens through a serological survey. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional...
March 25, 2018: Equine Veterinary Journal
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