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Infectious disease dynamics

Tilman Schneider-Hohendorf, Dennis Görlich, Paula Savola, Tiina Kelkka, Satu Mustjoki, Catharina C Gross, Geoffrey C Owens, Luisa Klotz, Klaus Dornmair, Heinz Wiendl, Nicholas Schwab
HLA associations, T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire bias, and sex bias have independently been shown for many diseases. While some immunological differences between the sexes have been described, they do not fully explain bias in men toward many infections/cancers, and toward women in autoimmunity. Next-generation TCR variable beta chain (TCRBV) immunosequencing of 824 individuals was evaluated in a multiparametric analysis including HLA-A -B/MHC class I background, TCRBV usage, sex, age, ethnicity, and TCRBV selection/expansion dynamics...
February 12, 2018: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Soo Jin Oh, Young Ki Choi, Ok Sarah Shin
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) pose a major threat to public health and security. Given the dynamic nature and significant impact of EIDs, the most effective way to prevent and protect against them is to develop vaccines in advance. Systems biology approaches provide an integrative way to understand the complex immune response to pathogens. They can lead to a greater understanding of EID pathogenesis and facilitate the evaluation of newly developed vaccine-induced immunity in a timely manner. In recent years, advances in high throughput technologies have enabled researchers to successfully apply systems biology methods to analyze immune responses to a variety of pathogens and vaccines...
March 2018: Yonsei Medical Journal
Brittany A Mosher, Larissa L Bailey, Erin Muths, Kathryn P Huyvaert
Emerging infectious diseases are an increasingly common threat to wildlife. Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is an emerging infectious disease that has been linked to amphibian declines around the world. Few studies exist that explore amphibian-Bd dynamics at the landscape scale, limiting our ability to identify which factors are associated with variation in population susceptibility and to develop effective in situ disease management. Declines of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) in the Southern Rocky Mountains are largely attributed to chytridiomycosis but variation exists in local extinction of boreal toads across this metapopulation...
February 12, 2018: Ecological Applications: a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
Omprakash Singh Sisodiya, O P Misra, Joydip Dhar
Waterborne diseases have a tremendous influence on human life. The contaminated drinking water causes water-borne disease like cholera. Pulse vaccination is an important and effective strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A waterborne disease like cholera can also be controlled by using impulse technique. In this paper, we have proposed a delayed SEIRB epidemic model with impulsive vaccination and disinfection. We have studied the pulse vaccination strategy and sanitation to control the cholera disease...
February 6, 2018: Mathematical Biosciences
Sylvie Delhalle, Sebastian F N Bode, Rudi Balling, Markus Ollert, Feng Q He
Big data generation and computational processing will enable medicine to evolve from a "one-size-fits-all" approach to precise patient stratification and treatment. Significant achievements using "Omics" data have been made especially in personalized oncology. However, immune cells relative to tumor cells show a much higher degree of complexity in heterogeneity, dynamics, memory-capability, plasticity and "social" interactions. There is still a long way ahead on translating our capability to identify potentially targetable personalized biomarkers into effective personalized therapy in immune-centralized diseases...
2018: NPJ Systems Biology and Applications
François Charrier, Sophie Rossi, Ferran Jori, Oscar Maestrini, Céline Richomme, François Casabianca, Christian Ducrot, Johan Jouve, Nicole Pavio, Marie-Frédérique Le Potier
Wildlife species as reservoirs of infectious pathogens represent a serious constraint in the implementation of disease management strategies. In the Mediterranean island of Corsica, the dynamics of hepatitis E virus (HEV) and Aujeszky's disease virus (ADV) are suspected to be influenced by interactions between wild and domestic pigs. To improve our understanding of these influences, we first compared the seroprevalences of both viruses in domestic pig populations from different locations with contrasted levels of wild-domestic interactions, ADV vaccination, biosafety, and farm husbandry...
2018: Frontiers in Veterinary Science
G Ciaravino, A García-Saenz, S Cabras, A Allepuz, J Casal, I García-Bocanegra, A De Koeijer, S Gubbins, J L Sáez, D Cano-Terriza, S Napp
In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to develop new strategies for reducing the time for detection of infected herds and for the elimination of bTB from the herds already infected. Here, we developed a compartmental stochastic model to simulate bTB within-herd transmission, fed it with epidemiological data from 22 herds (obtained from a previous work) and carried out parameter inference using Approximate Bayesian Computing methods We also estimated the "Within-herd transmission potential Number" (Rh), i...
January 31, 2018: Epidemics
Pim van Hooft, Eric R Dougherty, Wayne M Getz, Barend J Greyling, Bas J Zwaan, Armanda D S Bastos
In the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) population of the Kruger National Park (South Africa) a primary sex-ratio distorter and a primary sex-ratio suppressor have been shown to occur on the Y chromosome. A subsequent autosomal microsatellite study indicated that two types of deleterious alleles with a negative effect on male body condition, but a positive effect on relative fitness when averaged across sexes and generations, occur genome-wide and at high frequencies in the same population. One type negatively affects body condition of both sexes, while the other acts antagonistically: it negatively affects male but positively affects female body condition...
2018: PloS One
Marie Denis, Benoît Cochard, Indra Syahputra, Hubert de Franqueville, Sébastien Tisné
In the field of epidemiology, studies are often focused on mapping diseases in relation to time and space. Hierarchical modeling is a common flexible and effective tool for modeling problems related to disease spread. In the context of oil palm plantations infected by the fungal pathogen Ganoderma boninense, we propose and compare two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models addressing the lack of information on propagation modes and transmission vectors. We investigate two alternative process models to study the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process...
February 2018: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Soyoung Kim, Aurelio A de Los Reyes, Eunok Jung
Tuberculosis (TB) is the sixth leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the Philippines. Although significant progress has been made in the detection and cure of TB under the Directly Observed Treatment Short Course, battling against the disease is still a burdensome task. It demands a concerted effort for specific and effective interventions. In this work, a mathematical TB model fitted to the Philippine data is developed to understand its transmission dynamics. Different control strategies such as distancing, latent case finding, case holding, active case finding controls, and combinations thereof are investigated within the framework of optimal control theory...
January 31, 2018: Journal of Theoretical Biology
Darío E Manzoli, María J Saravia-Pietropaolo, Leandro R Antoniazzi, Emilce Barengo, Sofía I Arce, Martín A Quiroga, Pablo M Beldomenico
Hosts counteract infections using two distinct defence strategies, resistance (reduction in pathogen fitness) and tolerance (limitation of infection damage). These strategies have been minimally investigated in multi-host systems, where they may vary across host species, entailing consequences both for hosts (virulence) and parasites (transmission). Comprehending the interplay among resistance, tolerance, virulence and parasite success is highly relevant for our understanding of the ecology and evolution of infectious and parasitic diseases...
January 29, 2018: International Journal for Parasitology
M Kumi Smith, Matthew Graham, Carl A Latkin, Vivian L Go
OBJECTIVES: Population mixing patterns can greatly inform allocation of HIV prevention interventions such as treatment as prevention (TasP) or preexposure prophyloaxis (PrEP). Characterizing contact patterns among subgroups can help identify the specific combinations of contact expected to result in the greatest number of new infections. SETTING: Baseline data from an intervention to reduce HIV related risk behaviors in male PWID the northern Vietnamese province of Thai Nguyen was used for the analysis...
January 30, 2018: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes: JAIDS
Qin-Hua Liu, Ming-Yue Song, Bai-Xia Yang, Rui-Xiang Xia
This study aimed to explore the association between the percentage of reticulated platelets (RP%) and infection, and analyze the value of combined measurement of RP% with other inflammatory indicators in diagnosing infection. A total of 190 patients with signs and symptoms suspicious of infection were included in the infection group, and 70 healthy subjects with comparable percentages of gender and age were included in the control group. Peripheral white blood cell (WBC) count, percentage of neutrophils (N%), platelet count, C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), RP%, and axillary temperature were recorded...
December 2017: Medicine (Baltimore)
Rebecca Kahn, Matt Hitchings, Steven Bellan, Marc Lipsitch
Background/aims Network structure and individuals' level of exposure to a pathogen can impact results from efficacy evaluation studies of interventions against infectious diseases. Heterogeneity in infection risk can cause randomized groups to increasingly differ as a trial progresses and as more high-risk individuals become infected (described in prior work as the "frailty" phenomenon). Here, we show the impact this phenomenon can have on an individually randomized trial of a leaky vaccine in which all participants are exchangeable a priori...
January 1, 2018: Clinical Trials: Journal of the Society for Clinical Trials
Yan-Hui Chen, Feng Yu, Ze-Yuan Bian, Jian-Ming Hong, Nan Zhang, Qiao-Shi Zhong, Ya-Ping Hang, Jianping Xu, Long-Hua Hu
Cryptococcosis is a globally distributed infectious fungal disease. However, much remains unknown about its molecular epidemiology in many parts of the world. In this study, we analyzed 86 clinical Cryptococcus neoformans isolates from 14 regions in Jiangxi Province in south central China. Each isolate was from a different patient and 35 of the 86 (40.7%) patients were infected with HIV. All strains belonged to serotype A and mating type α (MATα). Genotyping based on DNA sequences at seven nuclear loci revealed eight sequence types (STs) among the 86 isolates, including two novel STs that have not been reported from other parts of the world...
January 24, 2018: Scientific Reports
David A Kennedy, Patricia A Dunn, Andrew F Read
Marek's disease virus (MDV) is a pathogen of chickens whose control has twice been undermined by pathogen evolution. Disease ecology is believed to be the main driver of this evolution, yet mathematical models of MDV disease ecology have never been confronted with data to test their reliability. Here, we develop a suite of MDV models that differ in the ecological mechanisms they include. We fit these models with maximum likelihood using iterated filtering in 'pomp' to data on MDV concentration in dust collected from two commercial broiler farms...
January 10, 2018: Epidemics
Joseph William Angell, Dai H Grove-White, Jennifer S Duncan
Footrot is an ovine foot disease of infectious origin and a cause of serious welfare and economic compromise in affected animals and flocks. The development of footrot in sheep is associated with the infectious agent Dichelobacter nodosus, which may invade as a primary pathogen, but the risk of disease is increased following damage to the interdigital skin of the foot. In this study, we used data from six farms in North Wales collected between June 2012 and October 2013 to model the dynamic changes of footrot prevalence over time and investigate the association of footrot with multiple farm, management, environmental and sheep factors...
January 23, 2018: Veterinary Record
Wencel Valega-Mackenzie, Karen R Ríos-Soto
Zika virus (ZIKV) is a vector-borne disease that has rapidly spread during the year 2016 in more than 50 countries around the world. If a woman is infected during pregnancy, the virus can cause severe birth defects and brain damage in their babies. The virus can be transmitted through the bites of infected mosquitoes as well as through direct contact from human to human (e.g., sexual contact and blood transfusions). As an intervention for controlling the spread of the disease, we study a vaccination model for preventing Zika infections...
January 22, 2018: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Petter Holme
We investigate three aspects of the importance of nodes with respect to susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) disease dynamics: influence maximization (the expected outbreak size given a set of seed nodes), the effect of vaccination (how much deleting nodes would reduce the expected outbreak size), and sentinel surveillance (how early an outbreak could be detected with sensors at a set of nodes). We calculate the exact expressions of these quantities, as functions of the SIR parameters, for all connected graphs of three to seven nodes...
December 2017: Physical Review. E
Bertrand Ottino-Löffler, Jacob G Scott, Steven H Strogatz
We study a stochastic model of infection spreading on a network. At each time step a node is chosen at random, along with one of its neighbors. If the node is infected and the neighbor is susceptible, the neighbor becomes infected. How many time steps T does it take to completely infect a network of N nodes, starting from a single infected node? An analogy to the classic "coupon collector" problem of probability theory reveals that the takeover time T is dominated by extremal behavior, either when there are only a few infected nodes near the start of the process or a few susceptible nodes near the end...
July 2017: Physical Review. E
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