Kahnemann

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This paper suggests that continued high-risk behavior is the result of the heuristics used to make judgments under uncertainty, and that the same heuristics may be mobilized to increase the use of safer-sex practices. In order to explain why it is that individuals fail to make effective use of the information they may have concerning rates of infection, consequences of infection and their own at-risk status, theory and research in several areas will be considered. Developments in the breadth of areas to which basic research on decision-making has been applied continue to provide new approaches toward understanding and overcoming the processes by which we reason (Kahnemann, 1991)...

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Decision analysis has its weaknesses: it may oversimplify problems, and probability and utility estimates may be biased. However, the alternative--decision-making by intuition--is likely to oversimplify problems even more and to be subject to even greater bias. Clinicians and patients often ignore major items of data, they handle probabilistic information badly, and their decisions are subject to a number of well-documented biases (Tversky and Kahnemann, 1974). Concern over these problems is not a reason to avoid decision analysis...