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Michelle McDowell, Mirta Galesic, Gerd Gigerenzer
Patients and doctors often need to make decisions based on the results of medical tests. When these results are presented in the form of conditional probabilities, even doctors find it difficult to interpret them correctly. There is over 20 y of research supporting the finding that people are better able to calculate the correct positive predictive value of a test when given information in natural frequencies, as opposed to conditional probabilities. Natural frequencies are one of a few psychological tools that have made it into evidence-based medicine...
February 1, 2018: Medical Decision Making: An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
Ping Xu, Claudia González-Vallejo, Justin Weinhardt, Janna Chimeli, Figen Karadogan
The familiarity difference cue has been regarded as a general cue for making inferential judgments (Honda, Abe, Matsuks, & Yamagishi in Memory and Cognition, 39(5), 851-863, 2011; Schwikert & Curran in Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 143(6), 2341-2365, 2014). The current study tests a model of inference based on familiarity differences that encompasses the recognition heuristic (Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 1999, Goldstein & Gigerenzer in Psychological Review, 109(1), 75-90, 2002). In two studies, using a large pool of stimuli, participants rated their familiarity of cities and made choices on a typical city-size task...
February 2018: Memory & Cognition
Odette Wegwarth, Gerd Gigerenzer
An efficient health care requires both informed doctors and patients. Our current healthcare system falls short on both counts. Most doctors and patients do not understand the available medical evidence. To illustrate the extent of the problem in the setting of cancer screening: In a representative sample of some 5000 women in nine European countries, 92% overestimated the reduction of breast cancer mortality by mammography by a factor of 10-200, or did not know. For a similar sample of about 5000 men with respect to PSA screening, this number was 89%...
2018: Recent Results in Cancer Research
Niklas Keller, Markus A Feufel, Friederike Kendel, Claudia D Spies, Gerd Gigerenzer
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
November 2017: Medical Education
Odette Wegwarth, Gert G Wagner, Gerd Gigerenzer
Informed decision making in medicine, defined as basing one's decision on the best current medical evidence, requires both informed physicians and informed patients. In cancer screening, however, studies document that these prerequisites are not yet met. Many physicians do not know or understand the medical evidence behind screening tests, do not adequately counsel (asymptomatic) people on screening, and make recommendations that conflict with existing guidelines on informed choice. Consistent with this situation, nation-wide studies showed that the general public misperceives the contribution of cancer screening but that understanding considerably improves when evidence-based information is provided...
2017: PloS One
Nick Chater, Teppo Felin, David C Funder, Gerd Gigerenzer, Jan J Koenderink, Joachim I Krueger, Denis Noble, Samuel A Nordli, Mike Oaksford, Barry Schwartz, Keith E Stanovich, Peter M Todd
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
July 25, 2017: Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
Stefania Pighin, Vittorio Girotto, Katya Tentori
Zhu and Gigerenzer (2006) showed that an appreciable number of Chinese children aged between 9 and 12years old made correct quantitative Bayesian inferences requiring the integration of priors and likelihoods as long as they were presented with numerical information phrased in terms of natural frequencies. In this study, we sought to replicate this finding and extend the investigation of children's Bayesian reasoning to a different numerical format (chances) and other probability questions (distributive and relative)...
November 2017: Cognition
Gerd Gigerenzer
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
July 3, 2017: BMJ: British Medical Journal
Gerd Gigerenzer, Kai Kolpatzik
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
May 24, 2017: BMJ: British Medical Journal
Nadine Fleischhut, Björn Meder, Gerd Gigerenzer
How are judgments in moral dilemmas affected by uncertainty, as opposed to certainty? We tested the predictions of a consequentialist and deontological account using a hindsight paradigm. The key result is a hindsight effect in moral judgment. Participants in foresight, for whom the occurrence of negative side effects was uncertain, judged actions to be morally more permissible than participants in hindsight, who knew that negative side effects occurred. Conversely, when hindsight participants knew that no negative side effects occurred, they judged actions to be more permissible than participants in foresight...
March 2017: Experimental Psychology
Gerd Gigerenzer, Rocio Garcia-Retamero
Ignorance is generally pictured as an unwanted state of mind, and the act of willful ignorance may raise eyebrows. Yet people do not always want to know, demonstrating a lack of curiosity at odds with theories postulating a general need for certainty, ambiguity aversion, or the Bayesian principle of total evidence. We propose a regret theory of deliberate ignorance that covers both negative feelings that may arise from foreknowledge of negative events, such as death and divorce, and positive feelings of surprise and suspense that may arise from foreknowledge of positive events, such as knowing the sex of an unborn child...
March 2017: Psychological Review
Norbert Donner-Banzhoff, Judith Seidel, Anna Maria Sikeler, Stefan Bösner, Maria Vogelmeier, Anja Westram, Markus Feufel, Wolfgang Gaissmaier, Odette Wegwarth, Gerd Gigerenzer
BACKGROUND: While dichotomous tasks and related cognitive strategies have been extensively researched in cognitive psychology, little is known about how primary care practitioners (general practitioners [GPs]) approach ill-defined or polychotomous tasks and how valid or useful their strategies are. OBJECTIVE: To investigate cognitive strategies used by GPs for making a diagnosis. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, we videotaped 282 consultations, irrespective of presenting complaint or final diagnosis...
January 2017: Medical Decision Making: An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
Gerd Gigerenzer
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
2016: BMJ: British Medical Journal
Henry M Cowles
Like so many things, "trial and error" has a history. The term first emerged as the name for a technique in eighteenth-century mathematics pedagogy. In the nineteenth century, psychologists and biologists transformed "trial and error" from a mathematical tool into a developmental theory, one that could explain both the learning mind and life on earth. "Trial and error" can thus be seen as a case of the larger process whereby the tools we use to explain the world do not just influence but in many ways become our explanations--a process that the psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has called the "tools-to-theories" heuristic...
September 2015: Isis; An International Review Devoted to the History of Science and its Cultural Influences
Iztok Hozo, Benjamin Djulbegovic, Shenghua Luan, Athanasios Tsalatsanis, Gerd Gigerenzer
RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: Theories of decision making are divided between those aiming to help decision makers in the real, 'large' world and those who study decisions in idealized 'small' world settings. For the most part, these large- and small-world decision theories remain disconnected. METHODS: We linked the small-world decision theoretic concepts of signal detection theory (SDT) and evidence accumulation theory (EAT) to the threshold model and the large world of heuristic decision making that rely on fast-and-frugal decision trees (FFT)...
February 2017: Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice
Ulrich Hoffrage, Stefan Krauss, Laura Martignon, Gerd Gigerenzer
Representing statistical information in terms of natural frequencies rather than probabilities improves performance in Bayesian inference tasks. This beneficial effect of natural frequencies has been demonstrated in a variety of applied domains such as medicine, law, and education. Yet all the research and applications so far have been limited to situations where one dichotomous cue is used to infer which of two hypotheses is true. Real-life applications, however, often involve situations where cues (e.g., medical tests) have more than one value, where more than two hypotheses (e...
2015: Frontiers in Psychology
Laura F Mega, Gerd Gigerenzer, Kirsten G Volz
Arguably the most influential models of human decision-making today are based on the assumption that two separable systems - intuition and deliberation - underlie the judgments that people make. Our recent work is among the first to present neural evidence contrary to the predictions of these dual-systems accounts. We measured brain activations using functional magnetic resonance imaging while participants were specifically instructed to either intuitively or deliberately judge the authenticity of emotional facial expressions...
2015: Frontiers in Human Neuroscience
Gerd Gigerenzer
Can the general public learn to deal with risk and uncertainty, or do authorities need to steer people's choices in the right direction? Libertarian paternalists argue that results from psychological research show that our reasoning is systematically flawed and that we are hardly educable because our cognitive biases resemble stable visual illusions. For that reason, they maintain, authorities who know what is best for us need to step in and steer our behavior with the help of "nudges." Nudges are nothing new, but justifying them on the basis of a latent irrationality is...
2015: Review of Philosophy and Psychology
Roman Prinz, Markus A Feufel, Gerd Gigerenzer, Odette Wegwarth
In 1998, Gigerenzer et al. studied how heterosexual men with low-risk behavior were counseled about the accuracy of HIV test results. Most professional counselors conveyed the illusions that false positives do not occur and that a positive HIV test result means that the client is certainly infected. To help improve counseling quality, the authors provided feedback to all counseling centers in Germany. Sixteen years later we assessed whether HIV counseling in Germany has improved by replicating the original study with an expanded sample of 32 randomly selected counseling centers across the country...
2015: Current HIV Research
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