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Microsimulation

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29345999/cost-effectiveness-of-capping-freeways-for-use-as-parks-the-new-york-cross-bronx-expressway-case-study
#1
Sooyoung Kim, Zafar Zafari, Martine Bellanger, Peter Alexander Muennig
OBJECTIVES: To examine health benefits and cost-effectiveness of implementing a freeway deck park to increase urban green space. METHODS: Using the Cross-Bronx Expressway in New York City as a case study, we explored the cost-effectiveness of implementing deck parks. We built a microsimulation model that included increased exercise, fewer accidents, and less pollution as well as the cost of implementation and maintenance of the park. We estimated both the quality-adjusted life years gained and the societal costs for 2017...
January 18, 2018: American Journal of Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29335933/cost-effectiveness-analysis-of-bariatric-surgery-for-morbid-obesity
#2
Adnan Alsumali, Tewodros Eguale, Sigrid Bairdain, Mihail Samnaliev
BACKGROUND: In the USA, three types of bariatric surgeries are widely performed, including laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG), laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB), and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB). However, few economic evaluations of bariatric surgery are published. There is also scarcity of studies focusing on the LSG alone. Therefore, this study is evaluating the cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery using LRYGB, LAGB, and LSG as treatment for morbid obesity...
January 15, 2018: Obesity Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29331740/development-and-validation-of-a-new-population-based-simulation-model-of-osteoarthritis-in-new-zealand
#3
Ross Wilson, J Haxby Abbott
OBJECTIVE: To describe the construction and preliminary validation of a new population-based microsimulation model developed to analyse the health and economic burden and cost-effectiveness of treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in New Zealand (NZ). METHOD: We developed the New Zealand Management of Osteoarthritis (NZ-MOA) model, a discrete-time state-transition microsimulation model of the natural history of radiographic knee OA. In this article, we report on the model structure, derivation of input data, validation of baseline model parameters against external data sources, and validation of model outputs by comparison of the predicted population health loss with previous estimates...
January 10, 2018: Osteoarthritis and Cartilage
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29300783/the-economic-benefits-of-reducing-cardiovascular-disease-mortality-in-quebec-canada
#4
David Boisclair, Yann Décarie, François Laliberté-Auger, Pierre-Carl Michaud, Carole Vincent
OBJECTIVES: We assess how different scenarios of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, aimed at meeting targets set by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 2025), may impact healthcare spending in Quebec, Canada over the 2050 horizon. METHODS: We provide long-term forecasts of healthcare use and costs at the Quebec population level using a novel dynamic microsimulation model. Using both survey and administrative data, we simulate the evolution of the Quebec population's health status until death, through a series of dynamic transitions that accounts for social and demographic characteristics associated with CVD risk factors...
2018: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29289528/cystic-fibrosis-colorectal-cancer-screening-consensus-recommendations
#5
Denis Hadjiliadis, Alexander Khoruts, Ann G Zauber, Sarah E Hempstead, Patrick Maisonneuve, Albert B Lowenfels
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Improved therapy has substantially increased survival of persons with cystic fibrosis (CF). But the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in adults with CF is 5-10 times greater compared to the general population, and 25-30 times greater in CF patients after an organ transplantation. To address this risk, the CF Foundation convened a multi-stakeholder task force to develop CRC screening recommendations. METHODS: The 18-member task force consisted of experts including pulmonologists, gastroenterologists, a social worker, nurse coordinator, surgeon, epidemiologist, statistician, CF adult, and a parent...
December 28, 2017: Gastroenterology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29288655/cost-effectiveness-of-screening-individuals-with-cystic-fibrosis-for-colorectal-cancer
#6
Andrea Gini, Ann G Zauber, Dayna R Cenin, Amir-Houshang Omidvari, Sarah E Hempstead, Aliza K Fink, Albert B Lowenfels, Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individuals with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) compared to the general population, and risk is higher among those who received an organ transplant. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine optimal CRC screening strategies for patients with cystic fibrosis. METHODS: We adjusted the existing Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon microsimulation model to reflect increased CRC risk and lower life expectancy in patients with cystic fibrosis...
December 27, 2017: Gastroenterology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29285487/corrigendum-simalba-a-spatial-microsimulation-approach-to-the-analysis-of-health-inequalities
#7
Malcolm Campbell, Dimitris Ballas
[This corrects the article on p. 230 in vol. 4, PMID: 27818989.].
2017: Frontiers in Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29275879/cost-effectiveness-of-different-durations-of-dual-antiplatelet-use-after-percutaneous-coronary-intervention
#8
Yaron Arbel, Maria C Bennell, Shaun G Goodman, Harindra C Wijeysundera
BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty regarding the optimal duration of dual-antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Our goal was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different durations of DAPT. METHODS: We created a probabilistic patient-level Markov microsimulation model to assess the discounted lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of short duration (3-6 months: short-duration group) vs standard therapy (12 months: standard-duration group) vs prolonged therapy (30-36 months: long-duration group) in patients undergoing PCI...
January 2018: Canadian Journal of Cardiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29241886/pcsk9-inhibitors-show-value-for-patients-and-the-us-health-care-system
#9
Wei-Han Cheng, Étienne Gaudette, Dana P Goldman
BACKGROUND: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors were approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as cholesterol-lowering therapies for patients with familial hypercholesterolemia or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the long-term health and economic value of PCSK9 inhibitors for Americans (51 years and older). METHODS: We conducted simulations using the Future Elderly Model, an established dynamic microsimulation model to project the lifetime outcomes for the US population aged 51 years and older...
December 2017: Value in Health: the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29240766/estimated-clinical-impact-of-the-xpert-mtb-rif-ultra-cartridge-for-diagnosis-of-pulmonary-tuberculosis-a-modeling-study
#10
Emily A Kendall, Samuel G Schumacher, Claudia M Denkinger, David W Dowdy
BACKGROUND: The Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) assay offers rapid and accurate diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) but still suffers from imperfect sensitivity. The newer Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra cartridge has shown improved sensitivity in recent field trials, but at the expense of reduced specificity. The clinical implications of switching from the existing Xpert cartridge to the Xpert Ultra cartridge in different populations remain uncertain. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a Markov microsimulation model of hypothetical cohorts of 100,000 individuals undergoing diagnostic sputum evaluation with Xpert for suspected pulmonary TB, in each of 3 emblematic settings: an HIV clinic in South Africa, a public TB center in India, and an adult primary care setting in China...
December 2017: PLoS Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29239999/care-management-to-reduce-disparities-and-control-hypertension-in-primary-care-a-cost-effectiveness-analysis
#11
Jonathan C Hong, William V Padula, Ilene L Hollin, Tanvir Hussain, Katherine B Dietz, Jennifer P Halbert, Jill A Marsteller, Lisa A Cooper
BACKGROUND: Project ReD CHiP (reducing disparities and controlling hypertension in primary care) care management was a clinic-based intervention that aimed to improve blood pressure control through improved care coordination and provide self-management support to patients from racially and socioeconomically. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ReD CHiP care management versus standard care to treat hypertension in diverse communities. RESEARCH DESIGN: Microsimulation model from a health care sector perspective over 15 years...
December 12, 2017: Medical Care
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29233795/using-microsimulation-to-estimate-the-future-health-and-economic-costs-of-salmonellosis-under-climate-change-in-central-queensland-australia
#12
Dimity Maree Stephen, Adrian Gerard Barnett
BACKGROUND: The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. OBJECTIVE: We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies...
December 11, 2017: Environmental Health Perspectives
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29231973/comparative-effectiveness-of-prostate-cancer-screening-between-the-ages-of-55-and-69-years-followed-by-active-surveillance
#13
Tiago M de Carvalho, Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, Harry J de Koning
BACKGROUND: Because of the recent grade C draft recommendation by the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) for prostate cancer screening between the ages of 55 and 69 years, there is a need to determine whether this could be cost-effective in a US population setting. METHODS: This study used a microsimulation model of screening and active surveillance (AS), based on data from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, for the natural history of prostate cancer and Johns Hopkins AS cohort data to inform the probabilities of referral to treatment during AS...
December 12, 2017: Cancer
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29216880/cost-effectiveness-of-human-papilloma-virus-hpv-vaccination-in-nigeria-a-decision-analysis-using-pragmatic-parameter-estimates-for-cost-and-programme-coverage
#14
Obinna I Ekwunife, Stefan K Lhachimi
BACKGROUND: World Health Organisation recommends routine Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination for girls when its cost-effectiveness in the country or region has been duly considered. We therefore aimed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Nigeria using pragmatic parameter estimates for cost and programme coverage, i.e. realistically achievable in the studied context. METHODS: A microsimulation frame-work was used. The natural history for cervical cancer disease was remodelled from a previous Nigerian model-based study...
December 8, 2017: BMC Health Services Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29212863/modelling-the-implications-of-reducing-smoking-prevalence-the-benefits-of-increasing-the-uk-tobacco-duty-escalator-to-public-health-and-economic-outcomes
#15
Andre Knuchel-Takano, Daniel Hunt, Abbygail Jaccard, Arti Bhimjiyani, Martin Brown, Lise Retat, Katrina Brown, Sebastian Hinde, Chit Selvarajah, Linda Bauld, Laura Webber
INTRODUCTION: Taxing tobacco is one of the most effective ways to reduce smoking prevalence, mitigate its devastating consequential health harms and progress towards a tobacco-free society. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of increasing the existing cigarette tobacco duty escalator (TDE) in the UK from the current 2% above consumer price inflation to 5%. METHODS: A two-stage modelling process was used. First, a non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data, creating longitudinal projections from 2015 to 2035...
December 6, 2017: Tobacco Control
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29211316/the-efficacy-of-prostate-specific-antigen-screening-impact-of-key-components-in-the-erspc-and-plco-trials
#16
Harry J de Koning, Roman Gulati, Sue M Moss, Jonas Hugosson, Paul F Pinsky, Christine D Berg, Anssi Auvinen, Gerald L Andriole, Monique J Roobol, E David Crawford, Vera Nelen, Maciej Kwiatkowski, Marco Zappa, Marcos Luján, Arnauld Villers, Tiago M de Carvalho, Eric J Feuer, Alex Tsodikov, Angela B Mariotto, Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, Ruth Etzioni
BACKGROUND: The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening significantly reduced prostate cancer mortality (rate ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.91). The US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) trial indicated no such reduction but had a wide 95% CI (rate ratio for prostate cancer mortality, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.87-1.36). Standard meta-analyses are unable to account for key differences between the trials that can impact the estimated effects of screening and the trials' point estimates...
December 6, 2017: Cancer
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29200350/value-of-waiving-coinsurance-for-colorectal-cancer-screening-in-medicare-beneficiaries
#17
Elisabeth F P Peterse, Reinier G S Meester, Andrea Gini, Chyke A Doubeni, Daniel S Anderson, Franklin G Berger, Ann G Zauber, Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar
Financial barriers to colorectal cancer screening persist despite the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Medicare beneficiaries may face 20 percent coinsurance for a screening colonoscopy when the procedure includes the removal of polyps or follows a positive fecal screening test. Using an established microsimulation model, we estimated that waiving this coinsurance would result in 1.7 fewer colorectal cancer deaths (a decrease of 13 percent) and $17,000 higher colorectal cancer-related costs (an increase of 0.6 percent) for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services per 1,000 sixty-five-year-olds, assuming a 10-percentage-point increase in the rates of first colonoscopy screening, follow-up, and surveillance...
December 2017: Health Affairs
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29194083/management-of-reducible-ventral-hernias-clinical-outcomes-and-cost-effectiveness-of-repair-at-diagnosis-versus-watchful-waiting
#18
Lindsey L Wolf, Julius I Ejiofor, Ye Wang, Myriam G Hunink, Elena Losina, Adil H Haider, Douglas S Smink
OBJECTIVE: To compare long-term clinical and economic outcomes associated with 3 management strategies for reducible ventral hernia: repair at diagnosis (open or laparoscopic) and watchful waiting. BACKGROUND: There is variability in ventral hernia management. Recent data suggest watchful waiting is safe; however, long-term clinical and economic outcomes for different management strategies remain unknown. METHODS: We built a state-transition microsimulation model to forecast outcomes for individuals with reducible ventral hernia, simulating a cohort of 1 million individuals for each strategy...
November 29, 2017: Annals of Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29185378/matching-microsimulation-risk-factor-correlations-to-cross-sectional-data-the-shortest-distance-method
#19
Sze-Chuan Suen, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, Sanjay Basu
BACKGROUND: Microsimulation models often compute the distribution of a simulated cohort's risk factors and medical outcomes over time using repeated waves of cross-sectional data. We sought to develop a strategy to simulate how risk factor values remain correlated over time within individuals, and compare it to available alternative methods. METHODS: We developed a method using shortest-distance matching for modeling changes in risk factors in individuals over time, which preserves both the cohort distribution of each risk factor as well as the cross-sectional correlation between risk factors observed in repeated cross-sectional data...
November 1, 2017: Medical Decision Making: An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29150480/effect-of-time-to-diagnostic-testing-for-breast-cervical-and-colorectal-cancer-screening-abnormalities-on-screening-efficacy-a-modeling-study
#20
Carolyn M Rutter, Jane J Kim, Reinier G S Meester, Brian L Sprague, Emily A Burger, Ann G Zauber, Mehmet Ali Ergun, Nicole G Campos, Chyke A Doubeni, Amy Trentham-Dietz, Stephen Sy, Oguz Alagoz, Natasha Stout, Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Douglas A Corley, Anna Tosteson
BACKGROUND: Patients who receive an abnormal cancer screening result require follow-up for diagnostic testing, but the time to follow-up varies across patients and practices. METHODS: We used a simulation study to estimate the change in lifetime screening benefits when time to follow-up for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers was increased. Estimates were based on four independently developed microsimulation models that each simulated the life course of adults eligible for breast (women aged 50-74 years), cervical (women aged 21-65 years), or colorectal (adults aged 50-75 years) cancer screening...
November 17, 2017: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
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