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Microsimulation

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28643582/adverse-childhood-circumstances-and-functional-status-throughout-adult-life
#1
James N Laditka, Sarah B Laditka
OBJECTIVE: We studied the association of childhood adversity with adult functional status. METHOD: With data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the 2014 Childhood Retrospective Circumstances Study (1992-2013; N = 6,705; 62,885 person-years), we estimated functional status transition probabilities associated with childhood adversity, with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and education. Microsimulation then estimated functional status outcomes throughout adulthood for African American, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White women and men...
June 1, 2017: Journal of Aging and Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28636070/development-of-a-population-based-microsimulation-model-of-body-mass-index
#2
Deirdre Hennessy, Rochelle Garner, William M Flanagan Ron Wall And Claude Nadeau M Flanagan, Ron Wall, Claude Nadeau
BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity has necessitated the development of body mass index (BMI) projection models such as the POpulation HEalth Model (POHEM). This study describes the POHEM-BMI model, a microsimulation tool that can be used to support evidence-based health policy making for obesity reduction. DATA AND METHODS: The National Population Health Survey, the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS), and the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS) were used to develop and validate a predictive model of BMI for adults and childhood BMI history...
June 21, 2017: Health Reports
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28613988/cost-effectiveness-of-virtual-bone-strength-testing-in-osteoporosis-screening-programs-for-postmenopausal-women-in-the-united-states
#3
Christoph A Agten, Austin J Ramme, Stella Kang, Stephen Honig, Gregory Chang
Purpose To investigate whether assessment of bone strength with quantitative computed tomography (CT) in combination with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is cost-effective as a screening tool for osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Materials and Methods A state-transition microsimulation model of osteoporosis for postmenopausal women aged 55 years or older was developed with a lifetime horizon and U.S. societal perspective. All model inputs were derived from published literature. Three strategies were compared: no screening, DXA with T score-dependent rescreening intervals, and a combination of DXA and quantitative CT with different intervals (3, 5, and 10 years) at different screening initiation ages (55-65 years)...
June 14, 2017: Radiology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28601817/the-organisational-value-of-diagnostic-strategies-using-high-sensitivity-troponin-for-patients-with-possible-acute-coronary-syndromes-a-trial-based-cost-effectiveness-analysis
#4
Paul Jülicher, Jaimi H Greenslade, William A Parsonage, Louise Cullen
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate hospital-specific health economic implications of different protocols using high-sensitivity troponin I for the assessment of patients with chest pain. DESIGN: A cost prediction model and an economic microsimulation were developed using a cohort from a single centre recruited as part of the (ADAPT) trial, a prospective observational trial conducted from 2008 to 2011. The model was populated with 40 000 bootstrapped samples in five high-sensitivity troponin I-enabled algorithms versus standard care...
June 9, 2017: BMJ Open
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28583127/cmost-an-open-source-framework-for-the-microsimulation-of-colorectal-cancer-screening-strategies
#5
Meher K Prakash, Brian Lang, Henriette Heinrich, Piero V Valli, Peter Bauerfeind, Amnon Sonnenberg, Niko Beerenwinkel, Benjamin Misselwitz
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality. CRC incidence and mortality can be reduced by several screening strategies, including colonoscopy, but randomized CRC prevention trials face significant obstacles such as the need for large study populations with long follow-up. Therefore, CRC screening strategies will likely be designed and optimized based on computer simulations. Several computational microsimulation tools have been reported for estimating efficiency and cost-effectiveness of CRC prevention...
June 5, 2017: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28580275/forecasting-trends-in-disability-in-a-super-aging-society-adapting-the-future-elderly-model-to-japan
#6
Brian K Chen, Hawre Jalal, Hideki Hashimoto, Sze-Chuan Suen, Karen Eggleston, Michael Hurley, Lena Schoemaker, Jay Bhattacharya
Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model - the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) - for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan's future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning...
December 2016: Journal of the Economics of Ageing
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28579384/managing-molars-with-severe-molar-incisor-hypomineralization-a-cost-effectiveness-analysis-within-german-healthcare
#7
Karim Elhennawy, Paul-Georg Jost-Brinkmann, David John Manton, Sebastian Paris, Falk Schwendicke
OBJECTIVES: Dentists have a range of options for managing molars with severe molar-incisor hypomineralization (MIH), each with different long-term implications. The cost-effectiveness of managing molars with severe MIH was assessed. METHODS: A mixed public-private-payer perspective within German healthcare was adopted. Individuals with one to four severely MIH-affected molars were followed over their lifetime. We compared: (1) removal of the tooth/teeth and orthodontic alignment of the second and third molars (Ex/Ortho); (2) restoration of the tooth using resin composite (Comp); (3) restoration using an indirect metal crown after temporizing it using a preformed metal crown (PMC/IR)...
June 1, 2017: Journal of Dentistry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28555467/estimating-small-area-health-related-characteristics-of-populations-a-methodological-review
#8
Azizur Rahman
Estimation of health-related characteristics at a fine local geographic level is vital for effective health promotion programmes, provision of better health services and population-specific health planning and management. Lack of a micro-dataset readily available for attributes of individuals at small areas negatively impacts the ability of local and national agencies to manage serious health issues and related risks in the community. A solution to this challenge would be to develop a method that simulates reliable small-area statistics...
May 8, 2017: Geospatial Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28542274/detecting-infection-hotspots-modeling-the-surveillance-challenge-for-elimination-of-lymphatic-filariasis
#9
Julie R Harris, Ryan E Wiegand
BACKGROUND: During the past 20 years, enormous efforts have been expended globally to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) through mass drug administration (MDA). However, small endemic foci (microfoci) of LF may threaten the presumed inevitable decline of infections after MDA cessation. We conducted microsimulation modeling to assess the ability of different types of surveillance to identify microfoci in these settings. METHODS: Five or ten microfoci of radius 1, 2, or 3 km with infection marker prevalence (intensity) of 3, 6, or 10 times background prevalence were placed in spatial simulations, run in R Version 3...
May 2017: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28520716/expected-population-weight-and-diabetes-impact-of-the-1-peso-per-litre-tax-to-sugar-sweetened-beverages-in-mexico
#10
Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez, Rodrigo Zepeda-Tello, Eliane R Rodrigues, Arantxa Colchero-Aragonés, Rosalba Rojas-Martínez, Eduardo Lazcano-Ponce, Mauricio Hernández-Ávila, Juan Rivera-Dommarco, Rafael Meza
STUDY QUESTION: What effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico? METHODS: Using recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28515110/do-men-and-women-need-to-be-screened-differently-with-faecal-immunochemical-testing-a-cost-effectiveness-analysis
#11
Miriam P van der Meulen, Atija Kapidzic, Monique E van Leerdam, Alex van der Steen, Ernst J Kuipers, Manon C Spaander, Harry J de Koning, Lieke Hol, Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar
BACKGROUND: Several studies suggest test characteristics for the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) differ by gender, triggering a debate whether men and women should be screened differently. We used the microsimulation model MISCAN-Colon to evaluate whether screening stratified by gender is cost-effective. METHODS: We estimated gender-specific FIT characteristics based on first round positivity and detection rates observed in a FIT screening pilot (CORERO-1). Subsequently, we used the model to estimate harms, benefits and costs of 480 gender-specific FIT screening strategies and compared them with uniform screening...
May 17, 2017: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28499887/what-is-the-impact-on-the-healthcare-system-if-access-to-bariatric-surgery-is-delayed
#12
Ricardo V Cohen, Alexandre Luque, Silvio Junqueira, Rodrigo Antonini Ribeiro, Carel W Le Roux
BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery has been available as part of the Brazilian Public Health System for patients with body mass index>40 kg/m(2) (or>35 kg/m(2) with co-morbidities) since 1999. However, access to surgery is challenging, with eligible patients waiting up to 7 years before surgery. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to compare costs and effectiveness of different waiting times before surgery versus prompt surgery. SETTINGS: Public practice...
March 31, 2017: Surgery for Obesity and related Diseases: Official Journal of the American Society for Bariatric Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28495977/modelling-the-implications-of-reducing-smoking-prevalence-the-public-health-and-economic-benefits-of-achieving-a-tobacco-free-uk
#13
Daniel Hunt, André Knuchel-Takano, Abbygail Jaccard, Arti Bhimjiyani, Lise Retat, Chit Selvarajah, Katrina Brown, Laura L Webber, Martin Brown
INTRODUCTION: Smoking is still the most preventable cause of cancer, and a leading cause of premature mortality and health inequalities in the UK. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of achieving a 'tobacco-free' ambition (TFA) where, by 2035, less than 5% of the population smoke tobacco across all socioeconomic groups. METHODS: A non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data to create projections to 2035. These projections were used to predict the future incidence and costs of 17 smoking-related diseases using a microsimulation approach...
May 11, 2017: Tobacco Control
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28481128/traditional-growing-rod-versus-magnetically-controlled-growing-rod-for-treatment-of-early-onset-scoliosis-cost-analysis-from-implantation-till-skeletal-maturity
#14
Carlos King Ho Wong, Jason Pui Yin Cheung, Prudence Wing Hang Cheung, Cindy Lo Kuen Lam, Kenneth Man Chee Cheung
PURPOSE: To compare the yearly cost involved per patient in the use of magnetically controlled growing rod (MCGR) and traditional growing rods (TGRs) in the treatment of early onset scoliosis (EOS) and to assess the overall cost burden of MCGR with reference to patient and health-care infrastructure. METHODS: For a hypothetical case of a 5-year-old girl with a diagnosis of EOS, a decision-tree model using TreeAge Software was developed to simulate annual health state transitions and compare the 8-year accumulative direct, indirect, and total cost among the four groups: (1) dual MCGRs with exchange every 2 years, (2) dual MCGRs with exchange every 3 years, (3) TGR with surgical distraction every year, and (4) TGR with surgical distraction every 6 months...
May 2017: Journal of Orthopaedic Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28463708/improving-spatial-microsimulation-estimates-of-health-outcomes-by-including-geographic-indicators-of-health-behaviour-the-example-of-problem-gambling
#15
Francis Markham, Martin Young, Bruce Doran
Gambling is an important public health issue, with recent estimates ranking it as the third largest contributor of disability adjusted life years lost to ill-health. However, no studies to date have estimated the spatial distribution of gambling-related harm in small areas on the basis of surveys of problem gambling. This study extends spatial microsimulation approaches to include a spatially-referenced measure of health behaviour as a constraint variable in order to better estimate the spatial distribution of problem gambling...
April 29, 2017: Health & Place
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28462893/cost-effectiveness-of-gastric-band-surgery-for-overweight-but-not-obese-adults-with-type-2-diabetes-in-the-u-s
#16
John M Wentworth, Kim M Dalziel, Paul E O'Brien, Paul Burton, Frackson Shaba, Philip M Clarke, Neda Laiteerapong, Wendy A Brown
AIM: To determine the cost-effectiveness of gastric band surgery in overweight but not obese people who receive standard diabetes care. METHOD: A microsimulation model (United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study outcomes model) was used to project diabetes outcomes and costs from a two-year Australian randomized trial of gastric band (GB) surgery in overweight but not obese people (BMI 25 to 30kg/m(2)) on to a comparable population of U.S. adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (N=254)...
July 2017: Journal of Diabetes and its Complications
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28457614/corneal-collagen-cross-linking-in-the-management-of-keratoconus-in-canada-a-cost-effectiveness-analysis
#17
Victoria C Leung, Petros Pechlivanoglou, Hall F Chew, Wendy Hatch
PURPOSE: To use patient-level microsimulation models to evaluate the comparative cost-effectiveness of early corneal cross-linking (CXL) and conventional management with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) when indicated in managing keratoconus in Canada. DESIGN: Cost-utility analysis using individual-based, state-transition microsimulation models. PARTICIPANTS: Simulated cohorts of 100 000 individuals with keratoconus who entered each treatment arm at 25 years of age...
April 27, 2017: Ophthalmology
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28435751/hawai-i-physician-workforce-assessment-2016-improvement-in-physician-numbers-but-physician-suicides-of-concern
#18
Kelley Withy, Priscilla Mapelli, John Perez, Ariel Finberg, Josh Green
Hawai'i's Physician Workforce Assessment project was launched in 2010. Over the past 5 years the State has experienced decreases and increases in physician workforce. This current article describes the status of the physician workforce, past trends and anticipated projections as well as recent insights into why people leave Hawai'i. Survey data, internet searches and direct dialing methodologies were utilized to clarify and elucidate practice location, full time equivalency of time providing patient care and specialty of non-military physicians caring for Hawai'i's population...
March 2017: Hawai'i Journal of Medicine & Public Health: a Journal of Asia Pacific Medicine & Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28431415/potential-impact-of-affordable-care-act-related-insurance-expansion-on-trauma-care-reimbursement
#19
John W Scott, Pooja U Neiman, Peter A Najjar, Thomas C Tsai, Kirstin W Scott, Mark G Shrime, David M Cutler, Ali Salim, Adil H Haider
BACKGROUND: Nearly one quarter of trauma patients are uninsured and hospitals recoup less than 20% of inpatient costs for their care. This study examines changes to hospital reimbursement for inpatient trauma care if the full coverage expansion provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) were in effect. METHODS: We abstracted nonelderly adults (ages 18-64 years) admitted for trauma from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample during 2010-the last year before most major ACA coverage expansion policies...
May 2017: Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28419541/when-should-active-surveillance-for-prostate-cancer-stop-if-no-progression-is-detected
#20
Tiago M de Carvalho, Eveline A M Heijnsdijk, Harry J de Koning
BACKGROUND: A significant proportion of screen-detected men with prostate cancer may be overdiagnosed. Active Surveillance (AS) has emerged as a way to mitigate this problem, by delaying treatment of men, who are at low-risk until this becomes necessary. However, it is not known after how much time or biopsy rounds should patients stop AS and transition to conservative management (CM), if no progression is detected. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model with natural history of prostate cancer based on ERSPC and SEER data...
June 2017: Prostate
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