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Microsimulation

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28078600/net-budgetary-impact-of-ferric-citrate-as-a-first-line-phosphate-binder-for-the-treatment-of-hyperphosphatemia-a-markov-microsimulation-model
#1
Steven M Brunelli, Scott P Sibbel, David Van Wyck, Amit Sharma, Andrew Hsieh, Glenn M Chertow
Ferric citrate (FC) has demonstrated efficacy as a phosphate binder and reduces the requirements for erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) and intravenous (IV) iron in dialysis patients. We developed a net budgetary impact model to evaluate FC vs. other phosphate binders from the vantage of a large dialysis provider. We used a Markov microsimulation model to simulate mutually referential longitudinal effects between serum phosphate and phosphate binder dose; categories of these defined health states. Health states probabilistically determined treatment attendance and utilization of ESA and IV iron...
January 11, 2017: Drugs in R&D
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28077465/cost-effectiveness-of-the-polypill-versus-risk-assessment-for-prevention-of-cardiovascular-disease
#2
Bart S Ferket, M G Myriam Hunink, Mohammed Khanji, Isha Agarwal, Kirsten E Fleischmann, Steffen E Petersen
OBJECTIVE: There is an international trend towards recommending medication to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals at increasingly lower cardiovascular risk. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a population approach with a polypill including a statin (simvastatin 20 mg) and three antihypertensive agents (amlodipine 2.5 mg, losartan 25 mg and hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg) and periodic risk assessment with different risk thresholds. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model for lifetime predictions of CVD events, diabetes, and death in 259 146 asymptomatic UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 years...
January 11, 2017: Heart: Official Journal of the British Cardiac Society
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28077155/modem-a-comprehensive-approach-to-modelling-outcome-and-costs-impacts-of-interventions-for-dementia-protocol-paper
#3
Adelina Comas-Herrera, Martin Knapp, Raphael Wittenberg, Sube Banerjee, Ann Bowling, Emily Grundy, Carol Jagger, Nicolas Farina, Daniel Lombard, Klara Lorenz, David McDaid
BACKGROUND: The MODEM project (A comprehensive approach to MODelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for DEMentia) explores how changes in arrangements for the future treatment and care of people living with dementia, and support for family and other unpaid carers, could result in better outcomes and more efficient use of resources. METHODS: MODEM starts with a systematic mapping of the literature on effective and (potentially) cost-effective interventions in dementia care...
January 11, 2017: BMC Health Services Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28069621/the-costs-of-diabetes-among-australians-aged-45-64%C3%A2-years-from-2015-to-2030-projections-of-lost-productive-life-years-plys-lost-personal-income-lost-taxation-revenue-extra-welfare-payments-and-lost-gross-domestic-product-from-health-wealthmod2030
#4
Deborah Schofield, Rupendra N Shrestha, Michelle M Cunich, Megan E Passey, Lennert Veerman, Robert Tanton, Simon J Kelly
OBJECTIVES: To project the number of people aged 45-64 years with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to diabetes and related costs (lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue); and lost gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to diabetes in Australia from 2015 to 2030. DESIGN: A simulation study of how the number of people aged 45-64 years with diabetes increases over time (based on population growth and disease trend data) and the economic losses incurred by individuals and the government...
January 9, 2017: BMJ Open
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28055048/detecting-heterogeneous-treatment-effects-to-guide-personalized-blood-pressure-treatment-a-modeling-study-of-randomized-clinical-trials
#5
Sanjay Basu, Jeremy B Sussman, Rod A Hayward
Background: Two recent randomized trials produced discordant results when testing the benefits and harms of treatment to reduce blood pressure (BP) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Objective: To perform a theoretical modeling study to identify whether large, clinically important differences in benefit and harm among patients (heterogeneous treatment effects [HTEs]) can be hidden in, and explain discordant results between, treat-to-target BP trials...
January 3, 2017: Annals of Internal Medicine
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28045931/effect-of-meat-price-on-race-and-gender-disparities-in-obesity-mortality-and-quality-of-life-in-the-us-a-model-based-analysis
#6
Allison Pitt, Eran Bendavid
INTRODUCTION: There are large differences in the burden and health implications of obesity by race and gender in the US. It is unclear to what extent policies modifying caloric consumption change the distribution of the burden of obesity and related health outcomes. Meat is a large component of the American diet. We investigate how changing meat prices (that may result from policies or from exogenous factors that reduce supply) might impact the burden of obesity by race and gender. METHODS: We construct a microsimulation model that evaluates the 15-year body-mass index (BMI) and mortality impact of changes in meat price (5, 10, 25, and 50% increase) in the US adult population stratified by age, gender, race, and BMI...
2017: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28039844/low-molecular-weight-heparin-versus-vitamin-k-antagonists-for-the-treatment-of-cancer-associated-thrombosis-a-cost-effectiveness-analysis
#7
Nathan T Connell, Gregory A Abel, Jean M Connors
INTRODUCTION: Cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) is primarily treated with low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH), a strategy based on studies showing it to be superior to the vitamin K antagonist (VKA) warfarin for preventing VTE recurrence. Subsequent analyses suggest that the magnitude of this benefit might be less than previously determined. Neither patient-focused measures of utility nor the costs of each strategy have been evaluated in the current treatment era. METHODS: This is a cost-effectiveness analysis of VKA and LMWH for the treatment of cancer-associated thrombosis through use of a microsimulation model of outcomes for competing anticoagulation management strategies from a 2014 United States societal perspective...
December 22, 2016: Thrombosis Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28024314/modeling-health-care-spending-growth-of-older-adults
#8
Laura A Hatfield, Melissa M Favreault, Thomas G McGuire, Michael E Chernew
OBJECTIVE: To forecast out-of-pocket health care spending among older adults. Long-term forecasts allow policy makers to explore potential impacts of policy scenarios, but existing microsimulations do not incorporate details of supplemental insurance coverage and income effects on health care spending. DATA SOURCES: Dynamic microsimulation calibrated to survey and administrative data. STUDY DESIGN: We augment Urban Institute's Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM) with modules that incorporate demand responses and economic equilibria, with dynamics driven by exogenous technological change...
December 26, 2016: Health Services Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28001196/-financial-impact-of-smoking-on-health-systems-in-latin-america-a-study-of-seven-countries-and-extrapolation-to-the-regional-level
#9
Andrés Pichon-Riviere, Ariel Bardach, Federico Augustovski, Andrea Alcaraz, Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu, Márcia Teixeira Pinto, Marianela Castillo-Riquelme, Esperanza Peña Torres, Diana Isabel Osorio, Leandro Huayanay, César Loza Munarriz, Belén Sáenz de Miera-Juárez, Verónica Gallegos-Rivero, Catherine De La Puente, María Del Pilar Navia-Bueno, Joaquín Caporale
Objective: Estimate smoking-attributable direct medical costs in Latin American health systems. Methods: A microsimulation model was used to quantify financial impact of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, lung cancer, and nine other neoplasms. A systematic search for epidemiological data and event costs was carried out. The model was calibrated and validated for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, countries that account for 78% of Latin America's population; the results were then extrapolated to the regional level...
October 2016: Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública, Pan American Journal of Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28001195/-burden-of-disease-attributable-to-tobacco-use-in-argentina-and-potential-impact-of-price-increases-through-taxes
#10
Andrea Alcaraz, Joaquín Caporale, Ariel Bardach, Federico Augustovski, Andrés Pichon-Riviere
Objective: Evaluate burden of disease associated with tobacco use in Argentina and estimate health and economic impacts of cigarette price increases through taxes. Methods: A microsimulation model was used to quantify smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; pneumonia; and ten cancers. Modeling was done for effect of different price increase scenarios on tobacco use and their impact on health and economics...
October 2016: Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública, Pan American Journal of Public Health
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27987629/translating-pharmacometrics-to-a-pharmacoeconomic-model-of-copd
#11
Julia F Slejko, Richard J Willke, Jakob Ribbing, Peter Milligan
BACKGROUND: A model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) is a type of meta-regression that uses nonlinear mixed-effects models estimated on trial-level data to relate patient and trial characteristics, dosing, biomarkers, and outcomes of treatment. OBJECTIVES: To use a pharmacometric MBMA within a pharmacoeconomic model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: A Markov microsimulation model was developed to estimate monthly changes in the key disease severity metrics of COPD (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] and exacerbations) to compare a hypothetical drug that increases FEV1 to usual care...
December 2016: Value in Health: the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27984089/cost-effectiveness-of-root-caries-preventive-treatments
#12
Falk Schwendicke, Gerd Göstemeyer
INTRODUCTION: With a growing number of individuals retaining their teeth lifelong, often with periodontitis-induced root surface exposure, there is the need for cost-effective management strategies for root caries lesions. The present study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of root caries preventive treatments. METHODS: Patients were simulated over 10 years using a Markov model. Four treatments were compared: No treatment, daily 225-800ppm fluoride rinses, chlorhexidine (CHX) varnish (2×/year), silver diamine fluoride (SDF) varnish (2×/year)...
January 2017: Journal of Dentistry
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27972954/differences-in-cost-effectiveness-estimates-for-chronic-hepatitis-c-treatment-among-cohort-markov-model-markov-microsimulation-and-discrete-event-simulation
#13
H J Zhou, Y J Zhao, A C Wojciech, L Lin, J J Caro, J Moller, Y Y Dan, B P Lim
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
November 2016: Value in Health: the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27971512/modelling-total-knee-replacement-surgery-for-osteoarthritis-in-new-zealand-validation-of-a-population-based-state-transition-microsimulation-model
#14
R Wilson, J H Abbott, D Gwynne-Jones, G Kvizhinadze, T Blakely
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
November 2016: Value in Health: the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27970567/deterministic-vs-microsimulation-a-case-study-in-systemic-lupus-erythematosus-sle
#15
I van Oostrum, O Guenther, M J Postma, B M Heeg
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
November 2016: Value in Health: the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27942032/the-productivity-costs-of-premature-mortality-due-to-cancer-in-australia-evidence-from-a-microsimulation-model
#16
Hannah E Carter, Deborah J Schofield, Rupendra Shrestha
AIM: To estimate the productivity costs of premature mortality due to cancer in Australia, in aggregate and for the 26 most prevalent cancer sites. METHODS: A human capital approach was adopted to estimate the long term impacts of Australian cancer deaths in 2003. Using population mortality data, the labour force participation and the present value of lifetime income (PVLI) forgone due to premature mortality was estimated based on individual characteristics at the time of death including age, sex and socioeconomic status...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27936028/cost-effectiveness-of-screening-colonoscopy-depends-on-adequate-bowel-preparation-rates-a-modeling-study
#17
James Kingsley, Siddharth Karanth, Frances Lee Revere, Deepak Agrawal
BACKGROUND: Inadequate bowel preparation during screening colonoscopy necessitates repeating colonoscopy. Studies suggest inadequate bowel preparation rates of 20-60%. This increases the cost of colonoscopy for our society. AIM: The aim of this study is to determine the impact of inadequate bowel preparation rate on the cost effectiveness of colonoscopy compared to other screening strategies for colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: A microsimulation model of CRC screening strategies for the general population at average risk for CRC...
2016: PloS One
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27932263/long-term-disease-and-economic-outcomes-of-prior-authorization-criteria-for-hepatitis-c-treatment-in-pennsylvania-medicaid
#18
Mina Kabiri, Jagpreet Chhatwal, Julie M Donohue, Mark S Roberts, A Everette James, Michael A Dunn, Walid F Gellad
BACKGROUND: Several highly effective but costly therapies for hepatitis C virus (HCV) are available. As a consequence of their high price, 36 state Medicaid programs limited treatment coverage to patients with more advanced HCV stages. States have only limited information available to predict the long-term impact of these decisions. METHODS: We adapted a validated hepatitis C microsimulation model to the Pennsylvania Medicaid population to estimate the existing HCV prevalence in Pennsylvania Medicaid and estimate the impact of various HCV drug coverage policies on disease outcomes and costs...
December 5, 2016: Healthcare
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27925175/to-expand-coverage-or-increase-frequency-quantifying-the-tradeoffs-between-equity-and-efficiency-facing-cervical-cancer-screening-programs-in-low-resource-settings
#19
Nicole G Campos, Vivien Tsu, Jose Jeronimo, Mercy Mvundura, Kyueun Lee, Jane J Kim
Cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer death worldwide, with 85% of the disease burden residing in less developed regions. To inform evidence-based decision-making as cervical cancer screening programs are planned, implemented, and scaled in low- and middle-income countries, we used cost and test performance data from the START-UP demonstration project in Uganda and a microsimulation model of HPV infection and cervical carcinogenesis to quantify the health benefits, distributional equity, cost-effectiveness, and financial impact of either 1) improving access to cervical cancer screening or 2) increasing the number of lifetime screening opportunities for women who already have access...
December 7, 2016: International Journal of Cancer. Journal International du Cancer
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27906468/optimal-timing-of-hepatitis-c-treatment-for-patients-on-the-liver-transplant-waiting-list
#20
Jagpreet Chhatwal, Sumeyye Samur, Brian Kues, Turgay Ayer, Mark S Roberts, Fasiha Kanwal, Chin Hur, Drew Michael S Donnell, Raymond T Chung
: The availability of oral direct-acting antivirals has altered the hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment paradigm for both pre-liver transplant (LT) and post-LT patients. There is a perceived trade-off between pre-LT versus post-LT treatment of HCV-treatment may improve liver function but potentially decrease the likelihood of a necessary LT. Our objective was to identify LT-eligible patients with decompensated cirrhosis who would benefit (and not benefit) from pre-LT treatment based on their Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores...
November 5, 2016: Hepatology: Official Journal of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases
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