Microsimulation

IMPORTANCE: The health outcomes of increased poverty and inequalities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been substantially amplified as a consequence of converging multiple crises. Brazil has some of the world's largest conditional cash transfer (Programa Bolsa Família [PBF]), social pension (Beneficio de Prestacão Continuada [BPC]), and primary health care (Estratégia de Saúde da Família [ESF]) programs that could act as mitigating interventions during the current polycrisis era of increasing poverty, slow or contracting economic growth, and conflicts...

BACKGROUND: Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce...

BACKGROUND: Given the impact of high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages on type 2 diabetes, intervention to reduce their consumption can be a top priority for any health system. Thus, the purpose of the present study is to simulate the impact of policy options related to reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on the prevalence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Iranian men and women. METHODS: A discrete event simulation (DES) model was used to predict the effect of several policy options on the prevalence and death from type 2 diabetes in Azar Cohort Databases...

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the economic impact of upscaling access to continuity of midwifery carer, compared with current standard maternity care, from the perspective of the public health care system. METHODS: We created a static microsimulation model based on a whole-of-population linked administrative data set containing all public hospital births in one Australian state (Queensland) between July 2017 to June 2018 (n = 37,701). This model was weighted to represent projected State-level births between July 2023 and June 2031...

BACKGROUND: Educational inequalities in major depressive disorder (MDD) pose a major challenge. Tackling this issue requires evidence on the long-term impact of intervening on modifiable factors, for example lifestyle and psychosocial factors. For this reason, we aimed to simulate the development of educational inequalities in MDD across the life course, and to estimate the potential impact of intervening on modifiable factors. METHODS: We used data from the prospective Dutch Lifelines Cohort Study to estimate the required input for a continuous-time microsimulation...

Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) is an evolving treatment schedule for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), allowing for organ preservation in a relevant number of patients in the case of complete response. Patients who undergo this so-called "watch and wait" approach are likely to benefit regarding their quality of life (QoL), especially if definitive ostomy could be avoided. In this work, we performed the first cost-effectiveness analysis from the patient perspective to compare costs for TNT with radical resection after neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) in the German health care system...

OBJECTIVES: Nationwide lifestyle intervention-specific health guidance (SHG) in Japan-employs counselling and education to change unhealthy behaviours that contribute to metabolic syndrome, especially obesity or abdominal obesity. We aimed to perform a model-based economic evaluation of SHG in a low participation rate setting. DESIGN: A hypothetical population, comprised 50 000 Japanese aged 40 years who met the criteria of the SHG, used a microsimulation using the Markov model to evaluate SHG's cost-effectiveness compared with non-SHG...

Rationale: Reducing the risk of exacerbation is a fundamental goal in managing stable COPD. Guidelines recommend triple therapy (inhaled corticosteroids, long-acting muscarinic antagonists, and long-acting beta-agonists [ICS/LAMA/LABA]) only as a step-up from dual therapy (LAMA/LABA) for patients at continued high risk of exacerbation, due to the trade-off of an increased risk of pneumonia associated with ICS-containing therapies. However, there is little evidence on the optimum timing of initiating triple therapy...

UNLABELLED: This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of sequential treatment with romosozumab-to-alendronate compared to alendronate monotherapy and teriparatide-to-alendronate, in postmenopausal osteoporotic women from a Belgian healthcare perspective. Romosozumab-to-alendronate was found to be cost-effective compared to alendronate monotherapy and dominant compared to teriparatide-to-alendronate for osteoporotic women at high risk of fracture in Belgium. PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of sequential treatment with romosozumab followed by alendronate compared to alendronate monotherapy and teriparatide followed by alendronate, in postmenopausal osteoporotic women at high risk of fracture, from a Belgian healthcare perspective...

BACKGROUND: In 2009, a workplace-based hypertension management program was launched among men with hypertension in the Kailuan study. This program involved monitoring blood pressure semimonthly, providing free antihypertensive medications, and offering personalized health consultations. However, the cost-effectiveness of this program remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: This analysis included 12 240 participants, with 6120 in each of the management and control groups...

BACKGROUND: There are socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and its accumulation across the life course. Estimates of multimorbidity prevalence in English primary care increased by more than two-thirds from 2004 to 2019. We developed a microsimulation model to quantify current and projected multimorbidity inequalities in the English adult population. METHODS: We used primary care data for adults in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database between 2004 and 2019, linked to the 2015 English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), to model time individuals spent in four health states (healthy, one chronic condition, basic multimorbidity [two or more chronic conditions], and complex multimorbidity [three or more chronic conditions affecting three or more body systems]) by sex, age, IMD quintile, birth cohort, and region...

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A blood-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening test may increase screening participation. However, blood tests may be less effective than current guideline-endorsed options. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) covers blood tests with sensitivity of at least 74% for detection of CRC and specificity of at least 90%. In this study, we investigate whether a blood test that meets these criteria is cost-effective. METHODS: Three microsimulation models for CRC (MISCAN-Colon, CRC-SPIN, and SimCRC) were used to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of triennial blood-based screening (from ages 45 to 75 years) compared to no screening, annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), triennial stool DNA testing combined with an FIT assay, and colonoscopy screening every 10 years...

Mobility and environmental benefits of Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory (GLOSA) systems have been reported by many previous research studies, however, there is insufficient knowledge on the safety implications of such an application. For safe deployment of GLOSA system, it is most critical to identify and address potential safety issues in the design process. It can be argued that implementation of GLOSA system can improve safety by reducing traffic conflicts associated with the interrupted traffic flow at signalised intersections...

The association between economic cycles-typically measured in terms of GDP growth or swings in unemployment-and macro-level fertility trends has received ample attention in the literature. Compared to studies that consider macro-level fertility, individual-based models can address the association between economic cycles and specific stages of family formation (e.g. entry into parenthood) more precisely while allowing for structural factors that contribute to fertility postponement. Using population-wide longitudinal microdata from the Belgian censuses we combine discrete-time hazard models of entry into parenthood for the period 1960 to 2010 with microsimulation models to assess whether economic cycles in tandem with educational expansion can account for year-to-year variation in the proportion of women entering parenthood and variation in the pace of fertility postponement at the macro-level...

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality have declined across developed economies and granular up-to-date cost-effectiveness evidence is required for treatments targeting large populations. To assess the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of standard and higher intensity statin therapy in the contemporary UK population 40-70 years old. METHODS: A cardiovascular disease microsimulation model, developed using the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration data (117,896 participants; 5 years follow-up), and calibrated in the UK Biobank cohort (501,854 participants; 9 years follow-up), projected risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, diabetes, cancer and vascular and nonvascular death for all UK Biobank participants without and with statin treatment...

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to show the application of flexible statistical methods in real-world cost-effectiveness analyses applied in the cardiovascular field, focusing specifically on the use of PCSK9 inhibitors for hyperlipidaemia. METHODS: The proposed method allowed us to use an electronic health database to emulate a target trial for cost-effectiveness analysis using multi-state modelling and microsimulation. We formally established the study design and provided precise definitions of the causal measures of interest, while also outlining the assumptions necessary for accurately estimating these measures using the available data...

AIMS: The efficacy of a healthy lifestyle in secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established and a first-line recommendation in CVD prevention guidelines. The aim of this study was to assess if they are also cost-effective in patients with established CVD. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis (CUA) was performed comparing a combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention to usual care in CVD patients. The CUA had a healthcare perspective and lifetime horizon...

Most of the studies on the cost of intellectual disability are limited to a healthcare perspective or cohorts composed of individuals where the etiology of the condition is a mixture of genetic and non-genetic factors. When used in policy development, these can impact the decisions made on the optimal allocation of resources. In our study, we have developed a static microsimulation model to estimate the healthcare, societal, and lifetime cost of individuals with familial intellectual disability, an inheritable form of the condition, to families and government...

OBJECTIVE: To model the potential number of cancers prevented and life-years saved over a range of adherence rates to cervical cancer screening, surveillance follow-up, and follow-up colposcopy that may result from removing financial barriers to these essential clinical services. METHODS: A previously validated decision-analytic Markov microsimulation model was used to evaluate the increase in adherence to screening, surveillance, and colposcopy after an abnormal cervical cancer screening result...

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common, often recurrent condition and a significant driver of healthcare costs. People with MDD often receive pharmacological therapy as the first-line treatment, but the majority of people require more than one medication trial to find one that relieves symptoms without causing intolerable side effects. There is an acute need for more effective interventions to improve patients' remission and quality of life and reduce the condition's economic burden on the healthcare system...