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epidemic outbreak

Edward Goldstein, Virginia E Pitzer, Justin J O'Hagan, Marc Lipsitch
Risks for disease in some population groups relative to others (relative risks) are usually considered to be consistent over time, though they are often modified by other, non-temporal factors. For infectious diseases, in which overall incidence often varies substantially over time, the patterns of temporal changes in relative risks can inform our understanding of basic epidemiologic questions. For example, recent work suggests that temporal changes in relative risks of infection over the course of an epidemic cycle can both be used to identify population groups that drive infectious disease outbreaks, and help elucidate differences in the effect of vaccination against infection (that is relevant to transmission control) compared with its effect against disease episodes (that reflects individual protection)...
September 28, 2016: Epidemiology
Nathan D Grubaugh, Kristian G Andersen
The epidemics of Ebola virus in West Africa and Zika virus in America highlight how viruses can explosively emerge into new territories. These epidemics also exposed how unprepared we are to handle infectious disease emergencies. This is also true when we consider hypothesized new clinical features of infection, such as the associations between Zika virus infection and severe neurological disease, including microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. On the surface, these pathologies appear to be new features of Zika virus infection, however, causal relationships have not yet been established...
2016: F1000Research
Amanda A Koepke, Ira M Longini, M Elizabeth Halloran, Jon Wakefield, Vladimir N Minin
Despite seasonal cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh, little is known about the relationship between environmental conditions and cholera cases. We seek to develop a predictive model for cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh based on environmental predictors. To do this, we estimate the contribution of environmental variables, such as water depth and water temperature, to cholera outbreaks in the context of a disease transmission model. We implement a method which simultaneously accounts for disease dynamics and environmental variables in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model...
June 2016: Annals of Applied Statistics
Mohammad Hossein Azizi, Moslem Bahadori, Farzaneh Azizi
The present article provides a concise historical review on classical epidemic typhus (exanthemata typhus) in the world as well its outbreaks in Iran mainly during the 19th and 20th centuries. Typhus is still a potential public health threat under certain conditions, despite the fact that nowadays, efficient antibiotics are accessible and sanitary conditions which lead to typhus outbreaks have improved significantly.
October 2016: Archives of Iranian Medicine
David Baca-Carrasco, Jorge X Velasco-Hernández
Since the first major outbreak reported on the island Yap in 2007, the Zika virus spread has alerted the scientific community worldwide. Zika is an arbovirus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes; particularly in Central and South America, the main vector is the same mosquito that transmits dengue and chikungunya, Aedes aegypti. Seeking to understand the dynamics of spread of the Zika, in this paper, three mathematical models are presented, in which vector transmission of the virus, sexual contact transmission and migration are considered...
October 14, 2016: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Alfonso J Rodriguez-Morales, Maria Leonor Galindo-Marquez, Carlos Julian García-Loaiza, Juan Alejandro Sabogal-Roman, Santiago Marin-Loaiza, Andrés F Ayala, Guillermo J Lagos-Grisales, Carlos O Lozada-Riascos, Esteban Parra-Valencia, Jorge H Rojas-Palacios, Eduardo López, Pío López, Martin P Grobusch
OBJECTIVE: Geographical information systems (GIS) use for development of epidemiological maps in tropical diseases is increasingly frequently utilized. Here, we apply this technique to map the current Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in Colombia. METHODS: Surveillance cases data of the ongoing epidemic of ZIKV in Valle del Cauca department and its capital, Cali (2015-2016), were used to estimate cumulated incidence rates (cases/100,000 population) to develop the first maps in the department and it municipalities...
October 14, 2016: Infection
Magdalena Wieczorek, Arleta Krzysztoszek, Agnieszka Ciąćka, Agnieszka Figas
The aim of this study was to investigate the genetic variability of echovirus 6 (E6) isolates from environmental samples and clinical cases of aseptic meningitis from 2006 to 2014. The analysis of the VP1 region showed the extensive diversity (up to 18.8%) and revealed that E6 circulating in Poland belong to four groups. Environmental strains clustered in three groups excepting the 2012 outbreak group, which shows the sudden introduction of new epidemic variant with Asiatic origin. Data from the study established relationships of E6 from Poland with previously characterized strains and confirmed the importance of both clinical and environmental surveillance...
October 13, 2016: Journal of Medical Virology
Edward C Holmes, Gytis Dudas, Andrew Rambaut, Kristian G Andersen
The 2013-2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa was of unprecedented magnitude and changed our perspective on this lethal but sporadically emerging virus. This outbreak also marked the beginning of large-scale real-time molecular epidemiology. Here, we show how evolutionary analyses of Ebola virus genome sequences provided key insights into virus origins, evolution and spread during the epidemic. We provide basic scientists, epidemiologists, medical practitioners and other outbreak responders with an enhanced understanding of the utility and limitations of pathogen genomic sequencing...
October 12, 2016: Nature
Jin-Song Li, Xiao-Gen Dong, Meng Qin, Hui-Ru Feng, Jun-Yong Yang, Ruo-Xi Li, Jian-Jun Zhang, Li-Shu Zheng
An outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) that occurred in a Juku in Fengtai District, Beijing, China, in 2015 was monitored by the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Epidemiological investigation showed that 11 cases occurred from two classes in the preschool art training department in the Juku. Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) was identified as the causative pathogen of the outbreak via sequences analysis of products of real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and nested RT-PCR...
2016: SpringerPlus
Ko Chang, Chaur-Dong Chen, Chien-Ming Shih, Tzu-Chi Lee, Ming-Tsang Wu, Deng-Chyang Wu, Yen-Hsu Chen, Chih-Hsing Hung, Meng-Chieh Wu, Chun-Chi Huang, Chien-Hung Lee, Chi-Kung Ho
In Kaohsiung, a metropolitan city in Taiwan at high risk of dengue epidemic, weather factors combined with an accidental petrochemical gas explosion (PGE) may affect mosquito‒human dynamics in 2014. Generalized estimating equations with lagged-time Poisson regression analyses were used to evaluate the effect of meteorological/mosquito parameters and PGE on dengue incidences (2000-2014) in Kaohsiung. Increased minimum temperatures rendered a 2- and 3-month lagging interactive effect on higher dengue risks, and higher rainfall exhibited a 1- and 2-month lagging interplay effect on lower risks (interaction, P ≤ 0...
October 13, 2016: Scientific Reports
Linda Valeri, Oscar Patterson-Lomba, Yared Gurmu, Akweley Ablorh, Jennifer Bobb, F William Townes, Guy Harling
BACKGROUND: The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered. METHODS: To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys...
2016: PloS One
Maheswata Sahoo, Lingaraja Jena, Sangeeta Daf, Satish Kumar
Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito borne pathogen, belongs to Flaviviridae family having a positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome, currently known for causing large epidemics in Brazil. Its infection can cause microcephaly, a serious birth defect during pregnancy. The recent outbreak of ZIKV in February 2016 in Brazil realized it as a major health risk, demands an enhanced surveillance and a need to develop novel drugs against ZIKV. Amodiaquine, prochlorperazine, quinacrine, and berberine are few promising drugs approved by Food and Drug Administration against dengue virus which also belong to Flaviviridae family...
September 2016: Genomics & Informatics
Justin Lessler, C Jessica E Metcalf, Felicity T Cutts, Bryan T Grenfell
BACKGROUND: Routine vaccination supplemented by planned campaigns occurring at 2-5 y intervals is the core of current measles control and elimination efforts. Yet, large, unexpected outbreaks still occur, even when control measures appear effective. Supplementing these activities with mass vaccination campaigns triggered when low levels of measles immunity are observed in a sample of the population (i.e., serosurveys) or incident measles cases occur may provide a way to limit the size of outbreaks...
October 2016: PLoS Medicine
Dominique Castex, Sacha Kacki
The analysis of biological parameters such as age and sex is particularly relevant to the interpretation of ancient skeletal assemblages related to abrupt mortality crises, and more particularly epidemics. In such a context, the mechanisms of selection within a population or part of a population differ according to the pathogen involved. They may also vary depending on the period and location in which the population lived. Here, we illustrate the specificity of plague mortality through the study of several European burial sites contemporary with the first and second plague pandemics...
August 2016: Microbiology Spectrum
Emmanouil Angelakis, Yassina Bechah, Didier Raoult
Epidemic typhus caused by Rickettsia prowazekii is one of the oldest pestilential diseases of humankind. The disease is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis and is still considered a major threat by public health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Epidemic typhus has accompanied disasters that impact humanity and has arguably determined the outcome of more wars than have soldiers and generals...
August 2016: Microbiology Spectrum
Steven E Massey
Forensic science concerns the application of scientific techniques to questions of a legal nature and may also be used to address questions of historical importance. Forensic techniques are often used in legal cases that involve crimes against persons or property, and they increasingly may involve cases of bioterrorism, crimes against nature, medical negligence, or tracing the origin of food- and crop-borne disease. Given the rapid advance of genome sequencing and comparative genomics techniques, we ask how these might be used to address cases of a forensic nature, focusing on the use of microbial genome sequence analysis...
August 2016: Microbiology Spectrum
Maike Tahden, Juliane Manitz, Klaus Baumgardt, Gerhard Fell, Thomas Kneib, Guido Hegasy
In 2011, a large outbreak of entero-hemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) occurred in Germany. The City of Hamburg was the first focus of the epidemic and had the highest incidences among all 16 Federal States of Germany. In this article, we present epidemiological characteristics of the Hamburg notification data. Evaluating the epicurves retrospectively, we found that the first epidemiological signal of the outbreak, which was in form of a HUS case cluster, was received by local health authorities when already 99 EHEC and 48 HUS patients had experienced their first symptoms...
2016: PloS One
Alexandra Moura, Alexis Criscuolo, Hannes Pouseele, Mylène M Maury, Alexandre Leclercq, Cheryl Tarr, Jonas T Björkman, Timothy Dallman, Aleisha Reimer, Vincent Enouf, Elise Larsonneur, Heather Carleton, Hélène Bracq-Dieye, Lee S Katz, Louis Jones, Marie Touchon, Mathieu Tourdjman, Matthew Walker, Steven Stroika, Thomas Cantinelli, Viviane Chenal-Francisque, Zuzana Kucerova, Eduardo P C Rocha, Celine Nadon, Kathie Grant, Eva M Nielsen, Bruno Pot, Peter Gerner-Smidt, Marc Lecuit, Sylvain Brisse
Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) is a major human foodborne pathogen. Numerous Lm outbreaks have been reported worldwide and associated with a high case fatality rate, reinforcing the need for strongly coordinated surveillance and outbreak control. We developed a universally applicable genome-wide strain genotyping approach and investigated the population diversity of Lm using 1,696 isolates from diverse sources and geographical locations. We define, with unprecedented precision, the population structure of Lm, demonstrate the occurrence of international circulation of strains and reveal the extent of heterogeneity in virulence and stress resistance genomic features among clinical and food isolates...
October 10, 2016: Nature Microbiology
Nicklas Sundell, Lars-Magnus Andersson, Robin Brittain-Long, Magnus Lindh, Johan Westin
BACKGROUND: The relation between weather conditions, viral transmission and seasonal activity of respiratory viruses is not fully understood. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the impact of outdoor weather in a temperate climate setting on the seasonal epidemiology of viruses causing respiratory tract infections, particularly influenza A (IFA). STUDY DESIGN: In total, 20,062 clinical nasopharyngeal swab samples referred for detection of respiratory pathogens using a multiplex PCR panel, between October 2010 and July 2013, were included...
October 7, 2016: Journal of Clinical Virology: the Official Publication of the Pan American Society for Clinical Virology
John Duncan Grewar
Bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS) are considered the most important orbiviral diseases in Southern Africans countries. The general endemic status makes these diseases challenging to be quanti ed in terms of their economic impact. Using country reported data from BT and AHS outbreaks and cases, as well as international trade data, the economic impact of BT and AHS is evaluated on local, regional, and global scales. Local scale impact in the Southern African region is underestimated as shown by the underreporting of BT and AHS...
September 30, 2016: Veterinaria Italiana
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